Matt Magill, who was rocked in his his last start against the rival Giants, will still be in the rotation come his next turn:

Rookie pitcher Matt Magill, who lasted only 1 1/3 innings in Saturday night’s start, will remain in the rotation for at least one more start Friday night, manager Don Mattingly said Sunday.

The Dodgers could have skipped Magill because of a day off Thursday, but Mattingly said he still had confidence in Magill, who allowed five runs on six hits and four walks to the Giants after allowing only two runs in 6 2/3 innings against the Brewers in his Major League debut last Sunday.

“He’s an easy guy to trust,” said Mattingly. “A kid like him stays calm, he keeps working. He had the same demeanor that he had after his last time out. You get a good feeling with him.”

Confidence is one thing, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that you have to rely on a rookie to get a quality start when it’s not even necessary.

—–

Clayton Kershaw was activated from the Bereavement List following the death of his father, in time to make his scheduled start Friday.

Kershaw was placed on the bereavement list on Monday after his father passed away, to make room for the activation of shortstop Hanley Ramirez from the disabled list. Kershaw last pitched Sunday and is starting Friday night on regular rest. He missed the minimum three games required of placement on the bereavement list.

Somehow he managed to pitch well in his return, but the Dodgers obviously lost on a walk-off.

—–

Hanley Ramirez is injured yet again, suffering a hamstring injury Friday and hitting the DL Saturday, which led to the return of Dee Gordon.

The Dodgers on Saturday decided the hamstring injury suffered by Hanley Ramirez was enough to send him to the disabled list. The Dodgers recalled shortstop Dee Gordon from Triple-A Albuquerque before Saturday’s game, as first reported by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Bob Nightengale reported the Dodgers plan to play Gordon exclusively at shortstop in place of Ramirez.

In 2013, Gordon has hit .314/.397/.431 for Triple-A Albuquerque, with 19 runs scored in 25 games, and has stolen 14 bases in 16 attempts.

Seems fitting considering the way 2013 has begun. A team already struggling to score runs just got worse.

Gordon has shown improved plate discipline in AAA, but the real test will be his defense.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw was placed on the Bereavement List but is expected to make his scheduled start Friday.

By rule, Kershaw must miss a minimum of three games but a maximum of seven while on the bereavement list.

There were no further details given, as the team called it a “personal issue” that Kershaw would address when he returns to the team. Manager Don Mattingly said Kershaw is still in line to make his next start, on Friday in San Francisco against the Giants.

“As of right now we (expect Kershaw to start),” said Mattingly. “We’ll see where that goes.”

Ken Gurnick provided an update on the tragedy suffered by the Kershaw family that led to Clayton’s leave.

Clayton Kershaw is on the bereavement list because of the death of his father. Kershaw will fly to SF with the club and make Friday start.

— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) April 30, 2013

Best wishes to The Minotaur.

—–

Javy Guerra was recalled from AAA as Josh Wall heads back down to Albuquerque.

#Dodgers today recalled Javy Guerra (#48) from @abqtopes and optioned Josh Wall to Albuquerque.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 30, 2013

Figured this would be the move, but I’m still concerned about Wall’s health, as he threw in excess of 60 pitches in one outing and was down to 85 mph at one point (normally 92-95).

—–

The Dodgers signed Aaron Laffey to a minor-league deal. This is what it has come to.

The Dodgers, who had too many starting pitchers a couple of weeks ago, are in such a bind that they signed free agent left-hander Aaron Laffey to a Minor League deal Tuesday.

Everybody ready for the Laffey era?!

No? Me neither.

—–

The Dodgers have ceased the experiment of converting Netherlands catcher Dashenko Ricardo into a pitcher and will instead let him remain behind the plate.

It turns out, not everyone can pull a Kenley Jansen and convert from a position player to a dominant relief pitcher. Not even another Netherlands World Baseball Classic catcher from Willemstead, Curacao.

Dashenko Ricardo, whom the Dodgers signed to a minor league contract in March, has scrapped any thoughts of a conversion to the mound. The 23-year-old had six strikeouts in three innings two years ago in the Arizona League with the Giants, but also allowed three runs. More importantly, his right arm was hurt.

So it’s back to catcher for Ricardo, who is with the Class-A Great Lakes Loons, and is hitting .265/.316/.324 in 11 games.

“I’m sure his success had a lot to do with the idea that I could pitch,” Ricardo told Hugh Bernreuter of Michigan Live. “I don’t know if it was mechanics, but it worked for him. I liked to pitch, but for me, it just hurt my arm.”

Probably not a good thing to let a guy pitch whose arm hurts when he pitches. Unfortunately though, the reality is that now Dashenko goes from intriguing follow to minor-league depth.

—–

The Dodgers have dipped into the international market yet again, signing Osiris Ramirez for $100,000, per Baseball America.

At 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, Ramirez has most recently been throwing his fastball 87-91 mph with good armside life. Scouts were mixed on his curveball, but some have seem him show feel for the 75-79 mph offering, which is more advanced than his low-80s changeup.

Ramirez is athletic and had previously been a shortstop, but he moved to the mound within the last two years and generated some buzz as a pitcher on the rise last year as July 2 approached. Ramirez, who was born in Puerto Plata, has been living in San Francisco de Macoris and training with Laurentino Genao. He’s expected to start his career in the Dominican Summer League.

After years of virtual inactivity on this front, it seems nary a month or two go by now without an international signing. Going in the right direction, for sure.

Ramirez, a 17-year-old righty, will likely begin his pro career playing for the Dominican Summer League Dodgers team.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

MLB doesn’t want to see things get ugly between the Dodgers and the Padres on Monday, and Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the league will try to make their ruling on the matter by the time the series rolls around.

Major League Baseball is speeding up Carlos Quentin’s appeal of his eight-game suspension — a suspension that stems from his recent dust-up with Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke — so that he can begin serving his time before his Padres and those same Dodgers meet in Los Angeles on Monday. Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that a ruling on Quentin’s appeal could come as soon as Sunday.

“Major League Baseball is very aware of the situation,” a league source told Center on Saturday. “I think everyone would like to see a little time between the incident and Quentin’s next appearance at Dodger Stadium.”

Given all that’s transpired, it’s probably for the best. To be frank, the last thing this team needs with Zack Greinke out is for another pitcher to get suspended or hurt fighting meaningless grudges with a last place team (Clayton Kershaw, that’s you).

——

The thing about this that irks me though, is that Carlos Quentin charging the mound has created a situation exactly like Greinke speculated Quentin may have been trying to accomplish, where now Dodger pitchers can’t go inside on him. Not because they’re intimidated by him, but because they risk getting thrown out or suspended by the MLB.

For most batters, that wouldn’t be an issue. For Quentin? It absolutely is. He’s been hit 116 times in 2801 career plate appearances, or about 4.1% of the time. Since he averages around four plate appearances a game and there’s three games in the upcoming series, it gives him 12 chances to get hit. The likelihood that he would get hit in the upcoming Dodgers/Padres series AT LEAST once is 39.5%. Skipping this upcoming series, assuming he serves a suspension during it, the teams meet seven more times in 2013, which comes out to a 69.0% chance he gets hit again by the Dodgers this year with no intent (assuming he plays normally, of course).

That is to say that even if the Dodger pitchers had zero interest in any revenge plunking, there’s actually a pretty good chance he would get hit at some point anyway, and the same holds for any future meetings. So not only did he get to take Greinke out of that game, and out of the rotation for two months, but now he’s made himself bulletproof as far as worrying about diving over the plate against the Dodgers in future match-ups.

Justice.

Clayton Kershaw‘s extension has been widely anticipated by Dodgers fans for a while now, and most (including me) seem to want it done as soon as possible. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear as if that’s necessarily going to be the case.

A week ago, Dylan Hernandez said nothing was imminent:

Clayton Kershaw’s agent was at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, but a new deal between the Dodgers and their ace didn’t appear imminent, according to people familiar with the situation who weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.

He was right on the money, as no deal has been reached yet and figures are still being thrown around, though the $200 million price tag seems about right, according to Ken Rosenthal.

Clayton Kershaw’s people and the Dodgers are still talking with the season underway, but no one really knows what’s going on behind closed doors. At the same time, no one should be surprised if Kershaw winds up being the first true $200MM pitcher. Inking him for a total of ten years would keep him locked up through his age 34 season and even though that length sounds crazy, Felix Hernandez is signed through age 33 and Justin Verlander through age 36. Rosenthal’s guess is an eight-year, $200MM extension on top of the two years of control that he has left.

If that sounds nuts though, then this might sound even more so, as Kershaw’s price might be getting higher, according to Jon Heyman.

“I hear they’re already over $200 million,” one baseball official said.

Regardless, the encouraging thing is that everybody is reporting that the Dodgers and Kershaw’s agent are deep in negotiations, and that rarely ends without an extension getting done. It figures to be especially true with these new owners and their deep pockets.

Never forget.

—–

Baseball Prospectus: Matt Kemp has struggled to start the year, but his poor Spring Training probably has little to do with it.

His career line in 561 plate appearances? .252/.291/.448/.739.

True Blue LA: The Opening Day payroll for the Dodgers is over $240 million.

Baseball America: Draft bonus pools for the 2013 MLB Draft will rise 8.2 percent from last year. The Dodgers have $5,211,700 to spend on their 10 picks within the bonus pool range.

True Blue LA: Here’s all the changes to Dodger Stadium that you’ve been hearing about.

—–

Albuquerque Isotopes: Albuquerque Isotopes Opening Day roster.

True Blue LA: Chattanooga Lookouts Opening Day roster.

True Blue LA: Rancho Cucamonga Quakes Opening Day roster.

Great Lakes Loons: Great Lakes Loons Opening Day roster.

—–

Baseball America: Tomohiro Anraku, potentially the next big thing in Japan, threw 772 pitches in nine days at Koshien.

I guess it’s sad that I’m not even shocked by this. The practice has been going on forever now and there have probably been countless arms ruined far before they even get to Koshien.

Yahoo! Sports: Story on Tomohiro Anraku, Koshien, and the Japanese mentality towards pitch counts.

The news of Clayton Kershaw‘s allegedly imminent extension with the Dodgers was broken recently by Mike Petriello, and since then, reporters have chimed in, all confirming the existence of talks.

—–

Jon Heyman confirmed the negotiations and mentioned that Opening Day was not a hard deadline despite what Kershaw has previously said to have preferred.

Star left-hander Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are quietly talking about a multiyear deal, people familiar with the situation say.

While the sides officially aren’t speaking publicly about it, based on how the new Dodgers ownership team has acted and the value it places on big-time players, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers not locking up Kershaw at some point. Opening day isn’t necessarily a hard deadline, though Giants star Buster Posey and Tigers star Justin Verlander treated it as one before making their big deals, for $167 million and $180 million, respectively.

Tim Brown confirmed the talks but says a Dodger official shot down the report, though Kershaw himself seemed to tease that something was in the works.

Nudged again, asked if an agreement could be reached by Monday, Kershaw grinned accommodatingly and said, “Never know.” All lilting at the end, like “stay tuned” or “miracles happen,” one of the two.

Regardless, this ends well for Kershaw. It probably ends well for the Dodgers. An Internet report Friday said the two were nearing agreement on an eight-year, $200 million extension. The Dodgers have not been of the mood to comment either way, though one official shook his head gravely at the report.

Negotiations proceed. As of Friday afternoon, there was nothing. A lot could change in a day, two, almost three. Presumably, if there is a handshake, it will be to seal something in the range of eight years, and something in the neighborhood of $200 million. That would appear to be where the market is headed.

Given that the official Dodgers executive position on the matter is that rule number one about the Kershaw contract negotiations is that there is no Kershaw contract negotiations, it doesn’t shock me that a random Dodgers official refused to confirm a deal.

Locally, Bill Shaikin also confirmed that negotiations are taking place.

People familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity said Friday that the Dodgers were having contract conversations with former National League Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw.

Perhaps most promising, though, were tweets by Ramona Shelburne, who yesterday after the game described the extension as “imminent” and that word around the clubhouse was the deal would “get done”.

So for everybody asking about it and worrying about it because Kershaw’s preferred deadline has already passed, I would advise you to calm down, because all indications seem to point to a deal being finished sometime soon.

The Dodgers beat the rival Giants on Opening Day at home to begin 2013, but it wasn’t so much the win that was surprising as how they did it.

Leading off the bottom of the eighth inning of a 0-0 game, Clayton Kershaw was left in to hit, and he justified the decision, not with his arm, but with his bat.

That was his first career homer, and it made people lose their minds.

Never been prouder of Dodger fans as when they completed that successful high five.

So … that happened too.

Then Matt Kemp and the dugout did whatever this is:

Zombie dance?

And Luis Cruz is so excited. We so excited.

Fun fun fun.

Unfortunately, Kershaw is basically the worst curtain call giver in history.

We can work on that though.

Clayton Kershaw will be extended for 8 years and $200 million by the Dodgers sooner than later, according to Mike Petriello, who is now a reporter as well as a blogger.

None of that seems all that interesting any longer, because I can reliably report that Clayton Kershaw is going to sign an eight-year, $200m extension with the Dodgers, possibly as soon as tonight. If so, that would blow away all of us — myself included — who thought that $200m was an unattainable goal, though clearly deals since then have impacted that.

No word yet on the structure of the deal, but if it begins in 2013, as I expect it would, then it would cover Kershaw’s age 25-32 seasons. It’s a ludicrous amount of money, but that is exactly the timeframe I want a pitcher, and Kershaw’s obviously the kind of pitcher (and person) you’d want to lock up for that.

It’s not official yet, but I expect it to be in the next 24-48 hours, if not sooner. Much more to come, no doubt.

Most of us speculated that the sky was the limit on his extension, but $200 million warranted skepticism unless they were extending him for a decade. Well, never underestimate the unlimited bank account, I suppose, as $25 million annually is now expected to be a reality.

How the value of this and what not shakes out depends on the details, so I’ll wait to analyze that, but locking up an elite starter through his age 25-32 seasons is hard to complain about. Additionally, given the inflating market, it’s hard to find a realistic alternative to this.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five David Carradine Choke Pitches Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – -65.2%

Still amuses me that the umpire called the first runner out initially.

Anyway, so technically this wasn’t a pitch, but … uh … it was one of the most ridiculous ways to allow two runs I have ever seen.

It was the ninth inning and there were runners on second and third with two down. The Dodgers were clinging to a one-run lead, so it’s not like they weren’t in trouble since a hit would have had a similar result, but this was certainly more creative.

2. Javy Guerra – -64.8%

Two-run walk-off doubles tend to result in being on this list.

3. Kenley Jansen – -45.2%

Giving up a two-run single with a one-run lead in the top of eighth is not good, but it would have been worse had Matt Kemp not gunned a runner down at third.

Oh, and it was Hunter Pence who did the damage, thus making it ten times worse.

4. Javy Guerra – -44.5%

Deja vu.

5. Javy Guerra – -43.7%

Remember when people scoffed at the notion that Kenley Jansen was the better reliever? Oops.

To be fair, this was the game where he got his face destroyed, which seems like a legit excuse for giving up a game-tying one-run single.

—–

Kenley Jansen might be an idiot, but boy did the closer role not suit Javy Guerra.

—–

Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Javy Guerra – -1.44
2. Joe Blanton – -0.43
3. Chad Billingsley – -0.36
4. Clayton Kershaw – -0.25
5. Kenley Jansen – -0.23

Rick Honeycutt provided a bunch of updates on the health of Clayton Kershaw, Javy Guerra, Chad Billingsley, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall, and Kenley Jansen.

“Clayton was great, outstanding,” said Honeycutt. “But he was outstanding his last three starts, so that wasn’t a surprise. Shawn Tolleson had a little back tightness, but he threw a ‘pen. So did Josh Wall and Javy Guerra, who isn’t as far behind as I thought he’d be. Belisario was there, he threw twice, looked real good.”

Guerra seems healthy after off-season shoulder surgery, which is a positive for the pen, but there’s not much else that seems serious … except that Belisario is already in camp, which seems as much a miracle as Billingsley’s elbow holding up all year.

Speaking of which…

Billingsley was not at the minicamp, remaining at home in Pennsylvania, but he hasn’t had a setback after responding well to platelet-rich plasma injections. There is no way to know if his elbow will hold up until it is tested in Spring Training.

“He has to be smart and be open if he feels something so he doesn’t push it past the point,” said Honeycutt. “There’s a fine line between being really hurt or having something you can deal with. Chad tends to pitch through whatever is going on, and he’s not always open about what’s going on. He needs to be honest with himself.”

An athlete being honest about being hurt? Yeah, let’s rely on that because it has such a rich history of working.

Honeycutt didn’t see Kenley Jansen throw, but the reliever arrived the day Honeycutt left and has been throwing bullpens with no ill effects from the surgery he had to fix an irregular heartbeat.

Probably one of the most worrying health concerns because of the unknown/random nature of it.

—–

Hanley Ramirez injured his knee sliding into second base in the finale of the Caribbean Series, but the injury isn’t considered serious or long-term.

@chadmoriyama Awkward slide into second base to break up double play. Couldn’t tell which leg he was favoring afterward.

— Chris Jackson (@TopesWriter) February 8, 2013

Hanley stayed in the game and it didn’t even warrant any real followup other than people on Twitter mentioning that he’s fine, so it doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about going forward.

In a weird way though, him having a minor injury that put him out of the World Baseball Classic might have been a blessing in disguise because then he could play shortstop in Spring Training.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Clayton Kershaw related to Dylan Hernandez that the hip injury which felled him during the 2012 campaign has not been an issue this offseason.

“It was never a problem for me,” said Kershaw.

The Dodgers allowing Kersh to pitch on the balky hip late last season – in what was a lost season towards the end, no less – still does not sit right with me. Luckily for them and all of us, Kershaw’s injury never progressed to a more serious state.

—–

A.J. Ellis tells Steve Dilbeck that he has fully recovered from knee surgery and will be ready to start the season as usual.

Catcher A.J. Ellis said he feels fully recovered from left knee surgery and is already partaking in all baseball drills.

“I’m doing all my regular baseball activities,” Ellis said. “It looks like a normal January for me.”

In a season that already has a lot of injury question marks, having him declared healthy is a boost.

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Chad Billingsley, whose uncertain health spurred the Dodgers to their offseason spending spree for starting pitchers, said he’s had no issues with his right elbow during the winter.

With less than two weeks before the first pitchers-and-catchers workout, Billingsley said he feels “absolutely great.”

“Tomorrow I’ll throw off a mound for the eighth time and I’ve had no issues,” he told Jorge Jarrin on AM570′s DodgerTalk Thursday night. “It’s just like any other offseason.”

“Everything’s been great,” he said. “I’ve had no issues, no setbacks. Everything is looking good going into Spring Training.”

Hate to continue harping on it, but while it’s great that he insists he’s healthy as normal, there’s minimal reason to be confident in an issue-free 2013.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Worst Overall Pitches

Chad Billingsley – Cutter – .336 TAv

Josh Beckett – Fastball – .307 TAv

Aaron Harang – Sinker – .307 TAv

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the dumpster fire.

HOLY SHIT CHAD BILLINGSLEY STOP THROWING THAT PITCH

For the most part, he did abandon it in 2012, but apparently not enough. And honestly, it’s hard to tell when he was trying to throw a cutter or a slider because they both sucked and his separation between the pitches was inconsistent (protip: that is bad).

Also, there was a time when the fastballs of Josh Beckett and Aaron Harang (seriously, he posted 5 WAR seasons throwing it like 70% of the time) were feared. Not anymore.

—–

Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Josh Beckett – .307 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Chris Capuano – .297
Joe Blanton – .268
Aaron Harang – .256
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Chad Billingsley – .241
Ted Lilly – .213

How far the mighty have fallen…

Sinker

Aaron Harang – .307 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Joe Blanton – .295
Josh Beckett – .278
Chris Capuano – .272
Chad Billingsley – .232

To put this into perspective, by throwing it to a hitter, he basically turned everybody into Josh Hamilton.

Cutter

Chad Billingsley – .336 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Josh Beckett – .282
Joe Blanton – .253

Curve

Chad Billingsley – .251 TAv

Aaron Harang – .240
Joe Blanton – .183
Josh Beckett – .183
Clayton Kershaw – .084

Slider

Chad Billingsley – .263 TAv

Joe Blanton – .250
Aaron Harang – .218
Clayton Kershaw – .213
Chris Capuano – .190

Stuff wise, I don’t actually think his off-speed pitches are bad. Location wise? Yeah, he hangs them a lot. A LOT.

Change

Joe Blanton – .264 TAv

Josh Beckett – .237
Chris Capuano – .211

It’s almost as if throwing a change with no movement or deception is a bad thing.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Clayton Kershaw – Curve – .084 TAv

Josh Beckett – Curve – .183 TAv

Joe Blanton – Curve – .183 TAv

Am I surprised by the fact that the curve was the hardest pitch to do damage with? Yes and no. No, because it was bound to be an off-speed pitch, simply because fastballs are easier to command, thus they get thrown when a pitcher is behind in the count while the opposite is true for off-speed stuff. But yes, because I thought it would be the slider, which has basically become synonymous with swings and misses in recent times.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Ted Lilly – .213 TAv

Chad Billingsley – .241
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Aaron Harang – .256
Joe Blanton – .268
Chris Capuano – .297
Josh Beckett – .307

Is there a better example of the importance of pitch sequencing than this? Granted, it’s a small sample size because of his injury, but the fact that his fastball didn’t get blasted every single time he threw it is a testament to how he has to mix pitches to make his fastball seem harder to hit than it actually is.

Sinker

Chad Billingsley – .232 TAv

Chris Capuano – .272
Josh Beckett – .278
Joe Blanton – .295
Aaron Harang – .307

Annoyed by how I keep ranting on Twitter about how Chad Billingsley needs to throw his fastball more? Yeah, well he finally made the adjustment in 2012, but you should still get comfortable with hearing it, because he needs to continue to do that.

Cutter

Joe Blanton – .253 TAv

Josh Beckett – .282
Chad Billingsley – .336

Curve

Clayton Kershaw – .084 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Josh Beckett – .183
Joe Blanton – .183
Aaron Harang – .240
Chad Billingsley – .251

Just stupid.

Slider

Chris Capuano – .190 TAv

Clayton Kershaw – .213
Aaron Harang – .218
Joe Blanton – .250
Chad Billingsley – .263

Change

Chris Capuano – .211 TAv

Josh Beckett – .237
Joe Blanton – .264

Chris Capuano is like the anti-Chad Billingsley. He has effective off-speed stuff, but oh boy does his fastball get blasted to high heaven. Really puts an exclamation mark on how he needs to get ahead in the count.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

—–

The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

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If there are any questions, let me know below.

Zack Greinke and the Dodgers have agreed to a 6-year, $147 million mega-deal, the largest in MLB history for a righty and one that makes him the highest-paid pitcher on an average annual value basis.

Greinke slots in behind Clayton Kershaw in the rotation and gives the Dodgers a formidable 1-2 punch while lengthening the staff. Speaking of Kershaw, he must be thrilled with this deal, as his contract extension is going to be so unbelievably massive now, as in likely north of $200 million.

—–

The Dodgers followed up the Greinke signing by inking Korean lefty Hyun Jin Ryu to a 6-year, $36 million deal. Chad has more details here.

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Dodgers minor-league outfielder Alfredo Silverio was selected sixth in the 2012 Rule 5 Draft by the Marlins.

The Dodgers will receive $50,000 in compensation and Silverio must remain on the Marlins 25-man roster for the entirety of the 2013 campaign. If the Marlins don’t keep him, they must first offer him back to the Dodgers for $25,000.

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Though the Dodgers passed on selecting anyone during the major-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, they picked up two guys in the minor-league portion. Elevys Gonzalez, an infielder from the Pirates organization, and Hector Nelo, a righty from the Nationals, will each cost the Blue Crew $12,000.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

After expected rumors of the Dodgers and Hyun Jin Ryu’s agent Scott Boras being far apart, the two sides eventually agreed to a contract worth $36 million over a six-year span, according to Jon Heyman. As far as incentives go, Ryu can earn up to $1 million per year based on innings pitched and can increase his base salary (via Dylan Hernandez) if he does well in the Cy Young Award voting. Additionally, Tim Brown reports that if he throws 750 innings over his first five years, he can opt out of the deal. The Dodgers won the rights to negotiate with Ryu for $25.7 million via the posting system, and that money will now be sent to the Hanwha Eagles.

We’ve gone over this on the site previously, but reports on Ryu’s potential range from a middle of the rotation starter to a middle reliever, but most agree he has the talent to slot in around #3/#4 in a rotation. Granted, he hails from the KBO and has no MLB track record, so he’s riskier than those on the free-agent market, but given the current market and the Dodgers payroll, it seems to be an acceptable risk to take for an investment that totals a little over $10 million annually to lock up all of his prime years.

—–

As for the state of the rotation, this now means that, in addition to Ryu, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly in the stable. Furthermore, rumor has it that the team isn’t done yet and would still like to acquire another starter.

The acquisition of yet another starter would leave Ryu potentially questionable to enter the rotation right off the bat, especially if Billingsley is healthy and they can’t find trade partners for both Capuano and Harang. Still, that’s an awful good problem for the Dodgers to have, and given Billingsley’s questionable health, the stockpiling of starters is obviously by design as well. Regardless of where Ryu starts off the season though, he should slot into the back of the Dodgers rotation at some point if he’s as good as most expect him to be.

The Dodgers have signed Zack Greinke to a 6-year, $147 million contract, according to Jon Heyman, with Gina Miller getting the scoop. The $24.5 million average annual value of the deal makes him the highest-paid pitcher in baseball on a per-year basis.

If you’ve followed me in years past, you’d know that I usually do some type of efficiency analysis in terms of whether the deal makes sense on a dollars per WAR basis, but at this stage, with the 2013 payroll already around $235 million, I’m not sure it matters as much.

The important part now is whether or not Greinke is a quality pitcher and whether he makes the Dodgers better, and those questions aren’t even debatable.

After battling back from anxiety issues and becoming a full-time starting pitcher again, he has averaged 5.7 FIP WAR and 4.8 RA WAR over the past five years. Needless to say, he’ll slot in nicely behind Clayton Kershaw in the rotation, and even looking if we do look at it from the $/WAR perspective, at a $5 million per WAR rate and growing, it hardly seems like an overpay.

—–

Update: Jim Bowden said on Twitter that the contract has an opt-out clause after three years, and that it also has a provision in case he’s traded.

According to a Dodger source:Greinke has a full player opt out clause after 3 yrs & if traded during contract he can opt out at end of yr

Not sure how legit this is considering that he was the one shilling the hardest of the “Greinke to the Rangers” crowd, but if it’s true, does it change anything?

Not really.

Obviously the risk here shifts entirely to the team, much like with the J.D. Drew situation, but if he pitches excellent and opts out at 32 to look for a new contract, either the Dodgers let him walk and go after another front-end guy, or give him a minor raise/extension to retain his services, much like the Yankees did with C.C. Sabathia.

I’d rather not have it in there, but it’s not a deal-breaker or anything.

Grantland: Part 1 of Jonah Keri ranking the 50 best players in terms of trade value. No Dodgers here yet, but Carlos Santana finds a spot at #43.

The other two catcher rankings are the ones likely to elicit the most hate mail. In the first draft of this list, I had Santana considerably higher. Twenty-six-year-old switch-hitting catcher, career .806 OPS, signed for peanuts at four years, $18 million with an affordable $12 million option that would keep him in-house through 2017. By any objective standard, that would seem to make him a monumental bargain. Except the Lords of the Realm might not agree. There are the obvious concerns, such as Santana’s subpar defense, which (along with a semi-platoon designed to get him more at-bats) contributed to his playing 66 games at first base in 2011, with 21 at first and 27 at DH in 2012. Then there’s baseball’s continuing bias against low-average, high-walk hitters, even when we thought that was all behind us. The early buzz around Nick Swisher suggests he’ll be disappointed in his free-agent haul, while the cash-stuffed Rangers thought so little of Mike Napoli’s three-true-outcomes offense that they didn’t even make him a qualifying offer this offseason, meaning they think a one-year deal for a shade over $13 million is an overpay. If the Jered Weaver ranking constitutes ignoring the herd, consider the Santana ranking a case of acknowledging it.

Given how he’s perceived publicly, quite frankly I was surprised he made it onto the list at all.

Grantland: Part 2 of Jonah Keri ranking the 50 best players in terms of trade value. Matt Kemp checks in at #22.

Tulo and Kemp are franchise players…

OK, there are theoretically some scenarios that could see one of these guys traded:

C. The Dodgers decide they don’t feel like running $250 million payrolls anymore and stage an everything-must-go sale.

That’s about it, really.

Clayton Kershaw comes in at #13.

Practically speaking, there’s no way that Kershaw or Verlander will get traded, not even with both two years away from free agency. The Dodgers have shown they’ll throw ungodly amounts of money at slightly above-average players, let alone all-world pitchers, so Kershaw’s staying.

Yeah, at this point, it’s just a matter of whether or not he’ll get the richest contract for a pitcher in MLB history.

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FanGraphs: Speaking of money … Wendy Thurm takes a look at every television rights contract in the MLB.

I … uh … can see why some teams might be a bit upset.

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FanGraphs: As the power game has decreased, the running game has become more important. Seems to make complete sense, not be counter-intuitive.

The relationship is clear: the league took a year to catch up, but as run production goes down, stolen bases go up (For the record, the coefficient of determination between OPS and SBA/SBO is 0.78.).

It might seem counter-intuitive — the more run scoring drops, the more we hear about the sanctity of the out. Each of the 27 is hugely valuable, yes, but as run scoring drops each plate appearance is also more likely to produce an out.

The league on-base percentage has fallen from .336 in 2007 to .319 in 2012, and therefore the marginal out — the out risked by the stolen base — is less valuable. That’s why the “runCS” value in the Guts section — the cost in runs of a caught stealing — has lessened from minus-.433 in 2007 to minus-.398 in 2012.

Put another way, the stolen base becomes a less risky proposition because there is less to lose. The hitter at the plate is now less likely to get on base or hit a run-scoring extra base hit, and the chances of two hitters singling in an inning to knock a runner home drops in a compound fashion. Conversely, making the hitter’s job easier becomes more valuable now that the “wait for a three-run homer” strategy isn’t as viable.

The break-even rate on steals has fallen from 68 percent to 66 percent, down from 70 percent at the height of the steroids era in 2000. A player that stole 75 bases and was caught 25 times would have gained 4.2 runs of value in 2007. In 2012, that number rises to 5.1, and the player likely would have been running 10-20 percent more often; a routinely successful basestealer’s value in the running game therefore increases by some 30-40 percent.

It’s a great article, primarily because it shows that the break-even point for stealing success has fallen all the way down to 66%. Best to remember that during the season.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Dee Gordon could get on base enough to use his speed in this new environment?

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Yahoo! Sports: Jeff Passan has the story about how the MLB wants to ditch the posting system.

Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball are discussing significant changes to the posting system that brings players from Japan to the major leagues, sources told Yahoo! Sports.

While the talks haven’t moved beyond cursory stages, MLB is pushing NPB for a system in which teams no longer would bid blindly for the right to negotiate with a player but rather would participate in a traditional, open auction, the sources said.

Such a format likely would lessen the amount of money funneled toward the Japanese team that posts the player. In the cases of Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, their NPB teams received more than a $50 million windfall, a huge boon for a league with manifold financial struggles.

MLB and the players’ union agree they’d prefer to see a larger percentage of the money spent on high-end imports go to the player, the sources said.

Here … we … go.

Why the dramatics? Because this could be the start of a conflict between the leagues, as the NPB were the ones who wanted to change their rules in regards to their high school players going to the MLB in the aftermath of Shohei Otani‘s announcement. But now the MLB is requesting that they concede to them on posting fees. They are different issues, but they’re going to butt heads at some point in the near future it seems.

The posting fees are the far more significant deal though, IMO. Last I checked, and I admittedly don’t check regularly, I think only the Yomiuri Giants and a couple other teams in the NPB operate in the black. Everybody else is in the red for one reason or another, so these gigantic fees they get by selling off their elite players to the MLB helps the team — and the company that owns them — immensely. As such, I can’t see them going down without a fight.

Maybe there’s a happy medium here though, where a reasonable auction-type situation gets implemented with the NPB team getting to set a reserve price, and where the MLB concedes a bit of ground to the NPB on the signing of Japan’s amateur players so that Japanese fans get to watch their best young talent for at least half a decade or so.

Either way, it seems that something is going to change in regards to the relationship between the two leagues, and it’ll probably happen sooner rather than later.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

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Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

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I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

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Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers are the favorite to win the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.

According to an industry insider, the Dodgers are the favorites to wind up with top free agent starter Zack Greinke, with the Angels and Rangers on the outside looking in. And no starting pitcher on the market is going to be complaining by the end of the hot stove season.

Furthermore, “rival GMs” are telling ESPN‘s Buster Olney that if the Dodgers want him, they’ll get him.

The Rangers want Zack Greinke and are willing to be aggressive. The Angels want to keep Greinke. But ultimately, rival GMs predict, if the Dodgers intend to sign Greinke, they will get him. L.A. is also bidding for Hiroki Kuroda, whom they know well from his previous time with the team. “Cost is no object for them,” said a GM. “They are playing a different game than the rest of us right now.”

All of this is great news if you were worried (like me) about how the pitching rotation would shake out even with all this spending. Greinke, despite whatever concerns you may have about him, has more than enough talent to slot in as a #1/#2 type behind Clayton Kershaw.

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The Dodgers are also front-runners (or close to it) for Hiroki Kuroda‘s services, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.

Previously, teams have been under the impression that Kuroda would either re-sign with the New York Yankees or return to his native Japan to finish his career. But Kuroda has told friends that his first preference is to pitch in Southern California, where his two daughters are attending elementary school.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the Yankees are only willing to give him a one-year deal, which only adds to the chances that he ends up in California.

That is because, The Post has learned, the Yankees are willing to offer Kuroda just a one-year contract at present. Two other teams that seemingly would be attractive to Kuroda, the Dodgers and Angels, probably would be willing to offer at least a two-year pact to the righty.

I do wonder how much truth there is to all of this talk, because signing two or three starters in free agency (also rumored to be in on Anibal Sanchez) would mean they have eight or nine starters going into 2013. Now, after that A-Gon trade, I’m never going to completely dismiss a Dodger rumor when it comes to them spending money, but it does seem unlikely that they are in the lead for all these pitchers.

As far as Kuroda goes, I’m not sure how much legitimacy there is in him wanting a two-year deal. With the way he pitched a couple years ago, if he wanted a multi-year deal he could have got one, but he took that one-year deal because he wasn’t sure about his feelings in the future. Perhaps he changed his mind, but it would seem inconsistent with his previous behavior that he would now want to be locked in for more than a year.

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Dodgers are a member of the group of teams after Kyuji Fujikawa.

Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa started meeting with MLB clubs and touring their facilities this past week, reports Gerry Fraley of The Dallas Morning News. He’s already visited the Diamondbacks and Cubs and is expected to meet with both the Dodgers and Angels as well. It’s unclear if he’ll meet with the Rangers on this trip.

An interesting relief option out of Japan. Video from the 2012 NPB season here:

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Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe says Kevin Youkilis is on the radar for the Dodgers.

9. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, free agent — Good-sized market so far for Youkilis, at both third and first base, according to his agent, Joe Bick. The Indians are looking at him as a first baseman, while the Phillies and Dodgers are considering him at third (a back-burner option for the Dodgers). The Diamondbacks made a call, but Towers indicated they will likely not be involved.

Hell, why not, right? If the rumors are true that they’re just going to spend anything they want, why not sign Youkilis? Even if you like Luis Cruz over him, Youkilis is useful off the bench anyway.

Matt Kemp will undergo arthroscopic surgery tomorrow on his injured left shoulder to fix his frayed labrum. The rehab period could be weeks or months, depending on the extent of the damage.

I said it when it was revealed to be a serious injury, but the fact that the Dodgers didn’t shut him down was ludicrous. He – along with Clayton Kershaw, who we’ll get to in a minute – is the franchise, and risking his long-term health for a long-shot at the playoffs when he’s just entering his prime and is signed for near a decade is shortsighted and insane.

Here’s to relatively good news when the doctors get in his shoulder, as well as a speedy recovery, for The Bison.

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The aforementioned Kershaw will not need surgery on his injured hip.

That, of course, doesn’t excuse the club for letting him pitch last night, or at all, quite frankly, since he suffered the injury. Normally it’s fine to trust the doctors with the proprietary information, but it’s not as if the Dodgers staff has deserved our trust after this season.

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Chris Capuano injured his shoulder in a freak accident.

Don’t worry, it doesn’t seem serious at all, but yeah, he hit himself … with a batting donut.

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Matt Treanor reportedly strained a muscle in his side.

Hopefully he recovers fine, but it probably won’t matter much as far as the team is concerned since I don’t think he’ll be back.

The Dodgers are currently three games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 3.1% (-1.4% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 4.0% (-1.7% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

After Clayton Kershaw threw a gem yesterday, the Dodgers sit seven games above .500, but Edwin Jackson laid an egg for the Nationals, so the Dodgers remained three back of the playoffs with the clock getting closer to zero.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Joe Blanton to the mound against Tyler Chatwood, and they’re -200 betting favorites to win (66.7%). Additionally, AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 67% clip. The Cardinals send Kyle Lohse to the hill against Jordan Zimmermann and are -115 betting favorites to win (53.5%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 56%.

It might be surprising to some to see the Dodgers favored by so much with Blanton going, but on paper, the Rockies are a vastly inferior team with the worst pitching staff in the majors, so the Dodgers probably should be taking them to the woodshed. Of course, what this team should be doing and what they actually are doing has been a problem all year long.

The Dodgers are currently three games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 4.5% chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 5.6% chance according to Baseball Prospectus. Doesn’t take a math whiz to figure that 1-in-20 aren’t good odds, but gaining a game and a half over the past two days actually revived the on-life-support playoff hopes (1-2%) of the team.

Given that the Cardinals play the Nationals and the Reds to finish the season, two of the best teams in baseball, and the Dodgers have the Rockies and the Giants, anything does seem possible. It becomes absolutely imperative though that the Dodgers sweep the Rockies before going into their rivalry series, where seemingly anything could (and does) happen.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound against Jeff Francis, so it’s no surprise that they’re -290 betting favorites to win (74.4%), and AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 63% clip. The Cardinals sent Adam Wainwright to the hill against Edwin Jackson and are -135 betting favorites to win (57.4%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 56%.

While I still don’t believe the Dodgers should be risking the health of Kershaw and others for what amounts to a long shot, if nothing else the team has managed to make the end of this season exciting, for better or worse.