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	<title>Chad Moriyama &#187; Chase Headley</title>
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		<title>Ned Colletti nixes trade rumor, starts another + Mike MacDougal saga</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2011/12/ned-colletti-nixes-trade-rumor-starts-another-mike-macdougal-saga/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2011/12/ned-colletti-nixes-trade-rumor-starts-another-mike-macdougal-saga/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Dec 2011 06:54:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOSEFD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alfonso Soriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase Headley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dylan Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike MacDougal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=3017</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that yesterday&#8217;s rumored trade for a bat is now dead. I&#8217;m sure there were some out there who had pipe dreams of getting an impact player in the deal, but honestly, it&#8217;s just relief that the Dodgers will not be trading Chad Billingsley for Alfonso Soriano or ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/NedCollettiDealWithIt-500x338.jpg" alt="" title="NedCollettiDealWithIt" width="500" height="338" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2909" /></p>
<p><strong>Dylan Hernandez</strong> of the <strong>Los Angeles Times</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dylanohernandez/statuses/144569141792223232" target="_blank">reports</a> that yesterday&#8217;s <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2011/12/rumors-trading-for-a-bat-reliever-signing-mike-macdougal-josh-bard/" target="_blank">rumored trade for a bat</a> is now dead. I&#8217;m sure there were some out there who had pipe dreams of getting an impact player in the deal, but honestly, it&#8217;s just relief that the Dodgers will not be trading <strong>Chad Billingsley</strong> for <strong>Alfonso Soriano</strong> or something ridiculous.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Unfortunately, <strong>Ned Colletti</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dylanohernandez/statuses/144569343563399168" target="_blank">did mention</a> the Dodgers might still be making a move in the trade market.</p>
<blockquote><p>Colletti said the #Dodgers could make a minor trade in the next couple of days.</p></blockquote>
<p>Hopefully it&#8217;s for <strong>Chase Headley</strong> or <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2011/12/dodgers-correct-to-show-interest-in-chase-headley/" title="Dodgers Correct To Show Interest In Chase Headley" target="_blank">I just wasted a bunch of words</a> spelling out his value.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Additionally, Ned Colletti&#8217;s fetish for <strong>Mike MacDougal</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dylanohernandez/statuses/144569703816364032" target="_blank">lives on</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The #Dodgers will &#8220;stay in touch&#8221; with Mike MacDougal, Colletti said. Also talking to other relievers but furthest along with MacDougal.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2011/12/rumors-trading-for-a-bat-reliever-signing-mike-macdougal-josh-bard/" target="_blank">No whammy, no whammy, no whammy!</a></p>
<p>Ugh.</p>
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		<title>Dodgers Correct To Show Interest In Chase Headley</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2011/12/dodgers-correct-to-show-interest-in-chase-headley/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2011/12/dodgers-correct-to-show-interest-in-chase-headley/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Dec 2011 12:56:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase Headley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Molly Knight]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=3005</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Molly Knight of ESPN recently revealed that the Dodgers were &#8220;looking into&#8221; Padres third baseman Chase Headley. In a surprising change from the rest of the players the Dodgers are interested in, this one actually makes sense, especially considering that Headley would basically be replacing Juan Uribe. &#8212;&#8211; Chase Headley was a top prospect in ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ChaseHeadleyRumor.jpg" alt="" title="ChaseHeadleyRumor" width="500" height="379" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3007" /></p>
<p><strong>Molly Knight</strong> of <strong>ESPN</strong> recently revealed that the Dodgers were &#8220;<a href="https://twitter.com/#!/molly_knight/statuses/144300960288751616" target="_blank">looking into</a>&#8221; Padres third baseman Chase <strong>Headley</strong>.</p>
<p>In a surprising change from the rest of the players the Dodgers are interested in, this one actually makes sense, especially considering that Headley would basically be replacing <strong>Juan Uribe</strong>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Chase Headley was a top prospect in the Padres system, ranking at #32 in the majors going into 2008 according to <strong>Baseball America</strong> after putting up a .330/.437/.580/1.016 line at AA. He followed that year up with a .305/.383/.556/.939 AAA line in 2008 and was called up to the majors for good.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Headley&#8217;s OPS in the majors had been regressing from 2008-2010 (.757/.734/.702), making his big league career relatively disappointing. In 2011 though, he seemed to make things work, posting a .289/.374/.399/.773 line. However, even that had a drawback, as his best season was sidetracked by a fractured finger in August and he only made it back in time to play six September games. Furthermore, his BA and OBP spike can be partially traced to a career high BABIP (.368).</p>
<p>Perhaps most interesting though are his career home/road splits:</p>
<div id="attachment_3006" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 510px"><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ChaseHeadleySplits-500x38.jpg" alt="" title="ChaseHeadleySplits" width="500" height="38" class="size-large wp-image-3006" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Click To Enlarge</p></div>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying that leaving <strong>Petco Park</strong> for <strong>Dodger Stadium</strong> will make him into a star, but I do think that he has the ability to at least repeat his 2011 line and maybe add a little bit more if he&#8217;s in basically any other stadium.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Given that Headley has played average to elite defense at third base throughout his career, a 3-4 WAR player isn&#8217;t farfetched, and he has two years of team control left, so there&#8217;s plenty reason to be showing interest.</p>
<p><strong>MLB Trade Rumors</strong> has <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/projected-arbitration-salaries.html" target="_blank">projected his arbitration salary</a> at $3 million, which likely means he&#8217;s due to be a bargain in 2012 and 2013.</p>
<p>Even as just a 3 WAR player, you&#8217;re looking at a two year value of around $30 million, so even if you assume a $7 million salary in 2013, he&#8217;s a $20 million asset by my estimation.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ProspectValue.jpg" alt="" title="ProspectValue" width="314" height="369" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3012" /></p>
<p>If the Dodgers are giving up prospects, than they should be prepared to surrender a combination of prospects that total about 15-25 million dollars in value. If the Dodgers are giving up players, I&#8217;m not sure what would meet the requirements, because I assume the Padres would want to rebuild and not take on salary.</p>
<p>As with any deal, the sense of it depends on what you&#8217;re giving up as much as what you&#8217;re getting, but just on the surface, Chase Headley is certainly worth the interest. If the Dodgers can give up a reasonable package for him, they should absolutely do so.</p>
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