R.J. Anderson looked at Ned Colletti‘s trade history over at Baseball Prospectus and wondered why Dodgers fans are so worried about him.

Colletti’s evaluation mistakes cost the Dodgers two middle-of-the-rotation starters, an All-Star catcher, and a good fourth outfielder at most. But what about the flip side? What about when Colletti correctly evaluated his own prospects? Silver wrote, “One of [Colletti's] strengths seems to be knowing when to bail on his own players.” In the time since, Colletti has reaffirmed that notion. Some of Colletti’s better trades have come when correctly identifying the lemons in his own bunch. He traded Bryan Morris and LaRoche to acquire Manny Ramirez (easily the best deal of his career), used the intrigue of Joel Guzman to land Julio Lugo (whom, for whatever reason, fell to pieces, mitigating an otherwise clever deal), grabbed Jon Garland for Tony Abreu, got Jim Thome for nothing, and added Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot for Blake DeWitt and two prospects who were unable to make the Cubs’ top-20 list this preseason.

Tagging Colletti as a good or bad general manager adds no value. What can add value is breaking general managers down to tools and skills. Colletti seems to understand that future value is worth less than present value, particularly when his team has the ability to compete now and the resources to compete later. Proper evaluation is the engine in Colletti’s machine. That means the Dodgers have to continue to land potentially useful players and continue to evaluate and harvest the potentially overvalued prospects. Every once and a while, Colletti is going to miss on a player. It happens; even John Schuerholz, the master of farm system self-evaluation, lost a few times.

This isn’t to say that Dodgers fans should have blind faith in Colletti, just that cowering in fear seems to be equally as unreasonable.

Andrew Grant addressed the notion that Ned Colletti’s not that bad of a General Manager over at Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness.

Ned Colletti isn’t without his merits. He’s good at assembling a bullpen on the cheap and the Dodgers get more mileage out of their veteran utility guys than most teams, but these are minor things in the big picture. Colletti inherited a dream situation, the best farm system in baseball with a payroll in the upper echelons of the league and the more it has become his team, the worse it has gotten. If you compare Ned’s moves to Bobo the General Managing Chimp he looks great, but if you assume a base level of competence from your GM Ned falls massively. James Loney’s monthly home run doesn’t make him a good player, so all of Ned’s moves not failing miserably shouldn’t make him a good GM.

I was actually going to write something similar, including using the exact same links he used, but instead, I’ll just address the question of whether Dodgers fans are justified in worrying at the trading deadline.

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Despite my derision of him as a General Manager, Ned Colletti has, in my estimation, specific strengths and weaknesses. He is terrible at major free agent signings, but fringe/average on the minor free agent deals. He’s good at trading away major league talent (usually guys that he signed, unfortunately) for useful minor leaguers. And as Andrew showed, he’s basically average at trading away minor league players, but it’s rare that he gets value in return for all that he trades away.

Coincidentally or not, his strengths all seem to derive from scouting and evaluation of minor league players (trading for minor leaguers/drafting minor leaguers/trading away minor leaguers). Such opinions were earlier justified in quantifiable form by The Hardball Times. Now I’m not saying that all the minor league strengths are due to Kim Ng/Logan White/De Jon Watson, but that is their job description, and two of those three were with the team before any of us were aware Colletti existed.

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So with that established, I don’t understand how or why R.J. gives Colletti credit for getting present talent in return on trades as if that’s what happens all the time when Colletti deals away minor league players.

Looking at the trades he has made over the years, it’s a bit odd to use that angle. Manny Ramirez was a once-in-a-lifetime scenario in which the Red Sox had to dump a Hall Of Fame talent, even the most ardent fan of Ned Colletti would have to admit that, and that’s ignoring entirely the report that Frank McCourt was the one who made it happen because he wanted to sell tickets. Andre Ethier was Colletti’s shining moment, and despite what Nate Silver said, I loved the trade at the time. Again though, that’s clearly not a deadline deal where he acquires current talent in exchange for future talent. Quite the opposite actually, and it’s certainly not what Dodgers fans are worrying about here.

So why are they worried? Because essentially, he has lost an All-Star catcher (a good one, at worst), two middle-of-the-rotation guys, and an outfielder who would have definitely started for the Dodgers over the years in return for what? Greg Maddux and Casey Blake for two months? Neither of which vaulted the Dodgers to the next level in the present or future.

As such, I would say Dodgers fans are justified to be worried about Colletti at the deadline. That is, unless David Wright decides to push over a Mets employee, bad mouth the Mets in the press, and quit on the team or Bobby Abreu blows his top and becomes a clubhouse cancer, forcing a deal for a minor league prospect. Because while the odds are good that he’ll both get nothing that helps the team and give away nothing that matters, more often than not, when the players involved have mattered, he’s come out on the losing end.

Casey Blake

Casey Blake: Bearded Enigma.

There are generally two opinions of Blake, as many believe he has been a key cog to the Dodgers success over the past handful of years, while others loathe the way he came to be a Dodger in the first place. I am firmly in the camp of the latter, though I simultaneously recognize he’s been one of the better third basemen in the club’s history.

Of course, part of that speaks to the lack of quality third basemen this franchise has put on the field. In his short tenure with the Blue Crew, Blake managed a .338 OBP and a .431 SLG, with an injury-plagued 2011 as the culmination of what was a mediocre stint with the team. His fantastic 2009 of 4.9 WAR was followed by a decent 2010, but 2011 saw Blake injured and unproductive when on the field, posting a triple slash line of .252/.342/.371 to go along with a lackluster .314 wOBA and 1.1 WAR. He played in just 63 games as the aging Iowan’s health failed him.

Always solid with the glove (2011 UZR/150 of 8.5), Blake was counted on for far too much production by management and many loyal fans of his. Why, then, did I start this Season Review with a 38-year-old who barely suited up this season? Well, the Dodgers just declined the option on his contract for 2012, so Casey heads to free agency. Or retirement. Either way, I feel safe in saying that whatever path Blake chooses, his time starting at the hot corner in Los Angeles is over.

If, however, he were to return – and I’d be shocked if Ned Colletti didn’t consider bringing back Casey in some capacity, because, you know, he’s Ned Colletti – Blake’s ability to hit lefties (career .271/.360/.486/.846 versus southpaws) and play solid defense would portend to a role as a super-sub at all four corner spots, but primarily at third. Of course, the calls for that scenario have been ringing for well over a year, and we all saw how well that plan came to fruition in 2011.

Aaron Miles

The fact that Aaron Miles made the squad to start the season was disheartening enough to begin with. That he got so much playing time was even more unsettling.

Though he had a hot month of June, hitting .419/.418/.500/.918 (and yes, that is an OBP lower than his BA), which garnered a whole hell of a lot of attention and simultaneously made him the apple of Steve Lyons‘ eye, Miles was the same old mediocre Aaron Miles that he has always been and will likely continue to be.

While starting 61 games at third, Miles hit .249/.321/.321/.642 while playing beyond shoddy defense (-12.1 UZR/150). He was worth 0.8 WAR on the season with his almost five hundred (!) plate appearances, but could be in line for the Jamey Carroll multi-year deal regardless.

Miles is clearly not worth that, as he will turn 35 in December, is not exceptionally talented at any aspect of the game of baseball, and is simply taking up a roster spot from a younger player who could bring more upside and talent to the table.

Juan Uribe

53 games started at third (59 in total), a remarkably putrid triple slash line of .199/.262/.270/.532 in those games, a cumulative wOBA of .250, 0.4 WAR on the season, and 20.3% of his plate appearances ended in a strikeout. He walked in just 5.8% of his trips to the dish, put up an abysmal .089 ISO, and ate up more of the Dodgers payroll than he did the post-game spread (actually, that’s an arguable point).

Sadly enough, he’s likely the leading candidate to man the hot corner in 2012.

Juan Uribe is a terrible player. He had an atrocious 2011. If I write anything more about Juan Uribe, I’ll be the one on the disabled list with a detached head.

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Fun Fact: Juan Castro started a game at third. Juan Castro.

MLB: Jon Garland and Casey Blake both had their 2012 options declined. No analysis needed to tell you that these were no-brainer decisions. Also of note, Eugenio Velez was sent to AAA, which is unfortunate, because I would have preferred he be sent to the wood chipper.

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ESPN: Don Mattingly says Andre Ethier needs to focus and stop acting like a douche.

“It’s getting frustrated to the point that you’re not concentrating,” Mattingly said. “Dre gets frustrated to the point that he loses focus. Now, all of a sudden, you’re chasing bad balls, maybe swinging at pitches early in the count that you don’t want to swing at, and your focus gets off your plan.”

Amazing.

Is it just me, or do these problems only emerge after the player in question has a down season? It’s not like Ethier suddenly became an angry asshole or something, he has always been the same, so I’m not sure where this is coming from besides the fact that he sorta sucked in 2011.

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Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello steals one of my article ideas about dissecting Jim Bowden’s plan for the Dodgers in the 2012 off-season. He did it well, so go read it.

True Blue LA: The Arizona Fall League preview I was too lazy to do.

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The Book: I’ve always wondered about defensive indifference with less than two outs, mainly because I figured that losing the force play was important to defenses, and I think Tom Tango explores it well here.

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ESPN: Check out naked athletes on ESPN, it’s cool.

Los Angeles Times: Andre Ethier is done for the season. I don’t understand what took so long for this, and I’m not sure Mike Petriello does either. Perhaps now we can stop the inferences that Ethier just needed a stern warning in order to get past this injury.

MLB: Casey Blake had surgery. Oh.

MLB: Juan Uribe had surgery. Oh.

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Los Angeles Times: Steve Dilbeck admits he thought the Juan Uribe signing was a smart move. In his defense though, a lot of people seemed to be okay with it, or at least tolerant of it, including those from the sabermetric side.

Personally, I didn’t like it at all, mainly because people put a lot of weight into his Giants stint and seemed to forget about how much he sucked with the White Sox, but I could see the positional need for the team.

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Los Angeles Times: Bill Plaschke loves “God Bless America” during the seventh inning stretch at Dodger Stadium, which confirms my opinion that it’s stupid and pointless.

What’s even dumber is his bigger picture point though. Honestly, if it takes hearing a song at a baseball event to appreciate your life, this country, and the world at large, then you have much bigger internal problems to worry about.

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Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman asks what’s wrong with Chad Billingsley: his approach, his mentality, his mechanics, or his health.

For sanity sake, I’m going to rule out mentality, because nobody in the media or on the Internet can prove that to any meaningful degree. As far as his current approach goes, he’s throwing a normal amount of fastballs (55.4%) and cutters (21.4%), with no big drop in fastballs and rise in cutters like in 2009 (49.6% & 26.7%). I haven’t analyzed his mechanics yet, and perhaps I should later, but it doesn’t look like anything is abnormal.

As far as injury goes, we’ll never know for sure, but his velocity is steady. That said, his FIP by month is 3.34/2.97/4.10/3.55/4.83/3.77, so he was fine until August rolled around. He’s still struggling in September, as that FIP will inevitably rise after today’s poor effort. Not saying he’s hurt, but he’s certainly lost it since the end of July.

Thoughts?

As far as I know, this isn’t anywhere else yet, so I guess I have the scoop. :o

I got the information from a source in the MLB offices, so hopefully it’s legit.

NL Gold Glove Winners

P – Adam Wainwright
C – Yadier Molina
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Orlando Hudson
3B – Ryan Zimmerman
SS – Jimmy Rollins
OF – Shane Victorino
OF – Matt Kemp
OF – Michael Bourn

The source also provided me with a full breakdown of the voting at second base and outfield.

Second Basemen

Hudson, Orlando (50)
Utley, Chase (17)
Phillips, Brandon (17)
Eckstein, David (7)
Matsui, Kaz (5)
Sanchez, Freddy (2)

Outfielders

Kemp, Matt (72)
Victorino, Shane (70)
Bourn, Michael (31)
Francoeur, Jeff (25)
Cameron, Mike (24)
Morgan, Nyjer (19)

Awesome.

Other Dodgers of note include Randy Wolf finishing tied for fifth with six votes, Russell Martin in fourth with two votes, and Casey Blake in fourth with six votes.