Zack Greinke is ahead of schedule as he works his way back from his broken left collarbone.

For the third time in six days, Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon before the Dodgers hosted the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. The right-hander is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken collarbone.

Greinke threw just over 60 pitches on Tuesday, and like Saturday in San Francisco was clocked at 90 mph. Unlike last Thursday’s light bullpen session at Dodger Stadium, the last two have been much more strenuous, with Greinke throwing all of his pitches.

“My normal bullpen session is 20 pitches at 75 percent,” Greinke said. “This was nothing like a normal bullpen session for me.”

Now, Greinke could begin a minor league rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, provided he has no setbacks. That could put Greinke in line to return to the Dodgers at some time around the last week of May.

He’s been throwing bullpen sessions and will start a rehab assignment soon, and the Dodgers could really use that lethal one-two punch atop the rotation as soon as possible.

How soon?

Try tomorrow, in Rancho.

Zack Greinke to pitch in Class A tomorrow. Would be in line to return to #Dodgers rotation Wednesday vs. Nationals. May 10, 2013

If Greinke does indeed return on Wednesday of next week, he would have missed just under five weeks, well ahead of the original timetable given of eight weeks.

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Adrian Gonzalez has a strained muscle in his neck, suffered in that odd and innocuous-looking collision with a first-base umpire a few days back.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had an MRI on Monday that revealed a mild strain in his left trapezious muscle at the base of his neck, but he will play through the pain.

“I’m going to try to play through it and see how it feels,” Gonzalez said Monday afternoon. “It’s not getting worse, but there’s still quite a bit of pain there.”

The injury has forced him out of games early and seen him scratched entirely in others, but Gonzalez intends to play through the pain, which sounds pretty typical for an injured Dodger.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez left Wednesday night’s game against the Diamondbacks in the fifth inning, one inning after making a diving attempt to catch a foul ball. Gonzalez has been battling a strained muscle in his neck, and the Dodgers say he aggravated the neck strain on Wednesday.

Gonzalez is listed as day-to-day.

Honestly, just rest the guy and DL him – which they should have done originally – as there is baseball beyond 2013. Letting guys play through injury just leads to a more serious injury or compensating for the injured area and then injuring a different area.

Speaking of the consequences of playing through pain…

…A-Gon’s shoulder injury from a couple of years ago has permanently altered his ability to hit for power.

His days as that kind of power hitter are gone.

That is not a whisper from an anonymous scout. That is the word from Gonzalez himself, who says he has been unable to recover the swing that made him an elite power hitter.

“I can still hit home runs,” Gonzalez said. “That is not going to be an issue. The full power is not the same.”

“Last year, I tried to go back to the swing I had before I got hurt,” he said. “I tried it for the whole first half, with horrible results.”

We all remember them letting Matt Kemp persist, right? Now he might not ever be the same?

Great.

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Carl Crawford‘s hamstring was feeling tight, and he was held out of the lineup Wednesday as a precaution.

Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford was held out of the starting lineup for the series finale against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night with tightness in his right hamstring. Utility man Elian Herrera gets the start in left field in Crawford’s place.

“Carl felt a little bit tender, it feels like something is going on. We’re just being cautious, with the off day tomorrow,” said manager Don Mattingly. “I had planned on playing him today, but when he comes in and feels like he’s a little bit tight, it’s better than playing him and he ends up pulling it and you miss him for a long time.”

A hamstring injury for a guy whose game is predicated on his legs is never a good thing.

—–

Hanley Ramirez will be on the shelf for roughly four to six weeks with his hamstring injury.

MRI results for Hanley Ramirez confirmed a strain of his left hamstring strain, and the Dodgers are placing the official timetable for his return at four to six weeks. That puts Ramirez back with the Dodgers some time in the first two weeks of June if all goes according to plan.

Just think if he and Greinke and Gonzalez and Kemp are all on the field together at the same time, healthy. This squad could possibly win a game or two.

—–

Mark Ellis hit the 15-day DL with his quad injury and is eligible to return on May 12, as the move was a retroactive one.

It took the Dodgers about a week longer than it should have, but as expected Mark Ellis was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Monday with a strained right quad.

Chris Capuano was activated from the disabled list and took his spot on the 25-man roster.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. hit the DL with a strain of his left groin. Elian Herrera was recalled to take his place.

The Dodgers made it official on Tuesday, placing Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin.

Based on various beat reports from Monday, Hairston tried to test his groin during pregame workouts but was unable to complete them. Hairston aggravated the injury on Saturday night in San Francisco, but appeared as a pinch hitter on Sunday.

Hairston was pretty much the only guy with any amount of power on the bench.

—–

Scott Elbert is set to begin a rehab assignment and could be available in the next week to week and a half.

Reliever Scott Elbert, healed from two left elbow operations, will begin a Minor League rehab assignment Friday for Class A Rancho Cucamonga and could be back in the Dodgers’ bullpen within seven to 10 days.

Elbert threw a simulated game Saturday in extended spring training in Arizona, employing a revamped delivery designed to ease stress on his elbow after undergoing two offseason operations and a platelet-rich plasma injection during Spring Training.

Well, this is a bright spot at least.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Zack Greinke appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken collarbone.

The original diagnosis after the surgery was for Greinke to return to pitching for the Dodgers in eight weeks after the Apr. 13 procedure, which would put him in line for a return around June 8. But given that Greinke is already throwing bullpen sessions, his return could come sooner than that.

Ken Gurnick has the details:

Greinke threw all of his pitches and said he had no discomfort. Original recovery estimate was eight weeks, but he’s ahead of that.

While I’m thrilled with this news, and it is a positive to counter all the bad, I would encourage them to take as much time as he needs to get back.

Besides being worried about him rushing it to help a struggling team, I would hope he’s given the time to adequately build his arm strength. Also, that he feels truly normal so that he’s not altering his mechanics. This is due to both injury and performance concerns.

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Adrian Gonzalez has been down and out for the past few days with a neck injury, and while there hasn’t been any indication that it’s serious enough to require a DL stint, it certainly doesn’t sound good.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez tried to play on Saturday night after sitting out Friday with a pain in his neck, but for the second consecutive night he was scratched from the starting lineup on Saturday against the Giants. Jerry Hairston will play first base in place of Gonzalez, and bat second.

Things figured to be bad for Gonzalez, who after Friday’s game told reporters, “I can’t turn my neck right now,” per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

Even on Saturday, though he was originally penciled into the lineup, Gonzalez spent the bulk of pregame getting treatment on his neck, and per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com was walking around the clubhouse wearing a soft neck brace. I’m no doctor, but that is almost never a good sign for anyone, let alone a professional athlete.

The weird part? On the play he was hurt, there’s barely any direct contact with his head/neck and the umpire at all.

Via Mike Petriello

I’m not sure his head/neck area even make direct contact. Not questioning his injury in any way, just mentioning it to point out how unlucky this team has been so far in 2013.

This injury sort of sums it up.

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Hanley Ramirez was placed on the 15-day DL with his hamstring injury, which seems as serious as it looked.

Ramirez led off the sixth inning with a walk against Barry Zito, then tried to advance to third base on a single to right field by A.J. Ellis. But between second and third base, Ramirez pulled up and slowed down, and appeared to favor his left leg.

Ramirez was helped off the field by team trainers, and replaced in the bottom of the inning by Justin Sellers at shortstop.

Early reports have the injury being compared to Matt Kemp‘s injury from 2012, and we know how that derailed his year.

—–

Chris Capuano is on pace to join the rotation this coming week.

Chris Capuano pitched into the sixth inning Wednesday night in his minor league rehab start with Triple-A Albuquerque, and remains in line to join the Dodgers when they open a series next week at Dodger Stadium against the Diamondbacks.

Capuano allowed two runs on seven hits in his 5⅓ innings, and struck out four with just one walk against Memphis. He had a bit of a scare in the third inning when he knocked down a comebacker with his bare hand, per Isotopes beat writer Chris Jackson, but Capuano was no worse for wear and remained in the game.

Capuano was removed after 76 pitches, presumably after hitting a prescribed pitch count limit. For what it’s worth, Isotopes play-by-play announcer Josh Suchon described Capuano’s outing as “solid” and said the left-hander “looks ready.”

Capuano and Greinke figure to come back soon, one after the other, so the rotation hopefully won’t be in shambles like it is now.

—–

Mark Ellis continues to make improvements, but how much longer can they wait?

Ellis said Wednesday that he was feeling better and was able to field, throw, hit and move laterally with no issue. But he was still unable to run at full speed.

The Dodgers need to open a roster spot for Clayton Kershaw to return from the bereavement list and make his scheduled start Friday at San Francisco.

Does Ellis believe he will be healthy enough to play Friday?

“We’ll see; I won’t know until Friday,” Ellis said before Wednesday’s game against the Rockies. “If it progresses every day like it has, I’d be optimistic. But it’s early in the season still, so we’ll see.”

If Ellis is unavailable again Friday, the Dodgers would most likely place the veteran on the disabled list.

Great that he’s not in the “gonna miss a month” territory with this, but they need to make a decision. The bench is terrible as it is, and they can’t just keep them a man down.

Given his age and injury history, I honestly don’t see why they don’t just play it safe.

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Carl Crawford (hamstring) isn’t a DL situation yet, Don Mattingly says.

— J.P. Hoornstra (@jphoornstra) May 1, 2013

Fortunately it seems like he’s about ready, as he pinch-hit yesterday.

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Jerry Hairston Jr. seems to think he’s okay after pulling up a bit lame while scoring last night.

Jerry Hairston, starting at first base Saturday night in place of the injured Adrian Gonzalez, was removed in the fifth inning in a double-switch, although he confirmed he “felt a little bit of a tweak in the groin” to explain why he was limping while scoring on Matt Kemp’s two-run single.

“I felt fine and could have stayed in the game. It was very minor,” Hairston said. “It was just a natural double-switch but I could have played. It’s really a non-issue. I hit the bag funny rounding third and I just wanted to make sure I didn’t overextend.”

Mattingly said he was told that Hairston was OK, “but I’m not sure what that means. We’ll see tomorrow.”

Again, this doesn’t seem major, but if this many guys are unavailable or borderline unavailable, it eats into an already weak and decimated bench.

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As you guys know, Ted Lilly was put on the DL with a rib cage strain.

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Down in the minors, it’s been a busy week:

Placed on 7-day DL: RHP Gustavo Gomez, RHP JonMichael Redding, LHP Onelki Garcia, C Jan Vazquez, 1B Chris Jacobs, 2B Rafael Ynoa

Reinstated from DL: RHP Matt Palmer, SS Ozzie Martinez, OF Yasiel Puig

Would like to know what Onelki Garcia‘s ailment is, since he’s the top prospect in the group. Rafael Ynoa is a potential contributor as well.

Zack Greinke is throwing from 90 feet in his recovery effort from a broken collarbone.

The Dodgers have been encouraged by Zack Greinke’s recovery from a broken left collarbone, and the right-hander is already throwing less than three weeks removed from surgery.

Greinke threw from 90 feet before Monday’s game against the Rockies. He had surgery on April 13 and had a metal plate inserted into his clavicle to stabilize the fracture. But that’s not prevented him from beginning a throwing program.

“It’s still a little achy here and there, but nothing worse than what you would expect, I think,” Greinke said. “You try not to have setbacks but at the same time do what you can.”

Greinke is likely to be sidelined until mid-June, but the Dodgers are still pleased with his progress.

“I was pretty excited when he walked through the weight room today,” manager Don Mattingly said before Monday’s game. “He’s feeling better. We’re getting closer. We’ll see if he’s sore tomorrow or feels good again.”

He doesn’t appear to be ahead of or behind the schedule.

—–

Ted Lilly is hurt … again. This time it’s back stiffness that has felled the southpaw.

In what is becoming an almost daily occurrence, another Dodgers pitcher is hurt. Ted Lilly, who lasted just three innings in Monday’s 12-2 loss to the Rockies, has stiffness in his back and will have an MRI exam on Tuesday to determine the extent of the injury.

Both Lilly and manager Don Mattingly downplayed the injury after the game.

“I think he’s okay. From what I heard afterwards, he got kind of tight somewhere in his back there,” Mattingly said. “It’s something that he’s had before. We didn’t hear anything about it before the game.”

Lilly said he first felt back tightness on Thursday, the day after his start in New York, when he gave up one run in five innings to the Mets. But he didn’t think it would last, as he had a similar issue that went away quickly at the beginning of the 2012 season.

Lilly received a cortisone injection in his rib cage and has been shut down for two days.

The Dodgers said Lilly will be reevaluated again on Thursday to determine the next course of action. If he is unable to start on Saturday against the Giants in San Francisco, it is likely that start will go to Matt Magill, who made his major league debut on Saturday against the Brewers.

“I think I have a few things to be concerned about. The back being one of them, and just ineffectiveness,” Lilly said on Monday night. “There are a lot of guys in this clubhouse not feeling as good as they’d like to, but you still expect to get the results you’re looking for.”

Matt Magill over Ted Lilly, healthy or otherwise.

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Carl Crawford was scratched from Tuesday’s game due to tightness in his right hamstring.

Carl Crawford was scratched from the lineup tonight for precautionary reasons due to tightness in his right hamstring.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 30, 2013

Because … of course. Whether it’s serious or not is not yet known, but hamstring issues can linger, regardless.

—–

Hanley Ramirez and his thumb are back in action in The Show.

“I just want to play. I don’t want to wait any longer. I think I can play,” Ramirez said before Monday’s game with the Rockies. “If it’s tomorrow, it’s fine. If it’s tonight, it’s fine. It’s not my decision.”

The Dodgers activated Ramirez from the disabled list before Monday’s game, and placed Clayton Kershaw on the bereavement list.

Ramirez was 3-for-6 (.500) with a double and three runs batted in and a run scored in two minor league rehab games on Saturday and Sunday with Class-A Rancho Cucamonga. He didn’t make any throws on Sunday, but manager Don Mattingly was impressed with what he saw of Ramirez on tape.

Don’t dive head-first for a while, Hanley. :o

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Chad Billingsley does not regret the path he chose after learning his elbow was seriously injured late last season.

Chad Billingsley said he doesn’t regret choosing platelet-rich plasma injections over Tommy John surgery last year.

— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) April 30, 2013

He also said he thinks he’ll be ready for 2014 Opening Day. If that seems optimistic, it’s because it is. Realistically, hopefully he’s back and healthy by the 2014 All-Star Game break.

—–

Minor-league moves:

Placed on 7-day DL: C Webster Rivas, SS Ozzie Martinez
Reinstated from DL: C Pratt Maynard, SS Casio Grider, OF Brian Cavazos-Galvez

Also off the 7-day DL is Yasiel Puig.

—–

Alex Castellanos was also placed on the minor-league 7-day DL.

Those assumptions, however, proved incorrect as Castellanos was placed on the 7-day disabled list due to right forearm inflammation prior to Tuesday’s game.

“He’s got a little soreness in his forearm so we’re going to let it calm down a little bit,” manager Lorenzo Bundy said prior to the official DL announcement. “He could play, but we’re going to err on the safe side.”

So if something happens to Crawford, first call would probably go to Scott Van Slyke, even over Puig.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Hanley Ramirez has resumed baseball activities, including hitting off of a tee and light toss. He plans to return earlier than the timetable originally given, but the Dodgers aren’t getting ahead of themselves.

Ramirez told reporters Tuesday he would be back ‘way sooner’ than May 17, and that “everybody is going to be shocked” at how quickly he returns.

Manager Don Mattingly was similarly excited but less specific than Ramirez.

“He was in there swinging, and he looks good. Hanley’s moving forward, that’s for sure,” Mattingly said. “I’m going out on a limb and saying it’s not going to be eight weeks.”

So basically he’s declaring himself a miracle, which is fine with me considering the infield situation on the left side.

The sooner he gets back, the better.

—–

Zack Greinke underwent surgery on his broken left collarbone, and the procedure went as expected.

Dodgers right-handed pitcher Zack Greinke had successful surgery to repair a broken left collarbone on Saturday in Los Angeles, the team announced. As previously thought, Greinke is expected to miss eight weeks after the procedure.

The surgery was performed on Saturday by Dr. John Itamura and Dr. Neal ElAttrache at White Memorial Hospital in Los Angeles. The 90-minute procedure fixed the fracture of Greinke’s left clavicle, and involved the placement of a metal plate to stabilize the fracture.

The timetable for Zack’s return is eight weeks, which is about as good as the team could have hoped for.

—–

Ted Lilly agreed to make yet another minor-league rehab start.

It appears that left-handed pitcher Ted Lilly and the Dodgers have agreed to extend their inconvenient arrangement a little while longer. Lilly has agreed to make another minor league start on his rehabilitation assignment, a change from his weekend stance.

“It’s really been above me, what’s going on. They’ve been working it out,” Mattingly said. “We just give our baseball opinion, on what we felt like he needed, and they worked it out.”

Then he made it and impressed Ken Howell.

If and when the Dodgers need a replacement for the injured Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly is ready, assistant pitching coach Ken Howell said Tuesday night.

“He looked tonight like a Major League pitcher,” said Howell. “He managed the game, his pitches were crisper, he competed better. That’s what I was looking for. He pitched better than the numbers indicate.”

Looks more and more likely that he’ll have to be ready, due to a sudden lack of rotation depth.

—–

Speaking of the devil, Chris Capuano, filling in for an injured Greinke, left Tuesday’s game with a left calf strain. He’s headed for an MRI on Friday, according to Don Mattingly.

Oh, this start to the season just keeps getting better and better.

—–

The recently called-up Shawn Tolleson made one appearance before hitting the 15-day DL with a lower back strain.

Tolleson was recalled on Friday when Zack Greinke went on the disabled list, and pitched in the series opener against the Diamondbacks. Tolleson came in with the bases loaded and one out in the eighth inning with the Dodgers trailing 1-0, but he walked both hitters he faced to force in two inherited runs.

The move is retroactive to April 13, so Tolleson can be activated April 28 if he’s healthy.

As far as his recovery goes, Tolleson has been shut down from throwing for the next week, and he actually felt something before stepping onto the field, but he didn’t address the issue until after putting himself at further risk.

He thinks the travel may have affected his back, but for whatever reason he felt tightness before the his appearance on Friday.

“It was kind of tight all day, and tight when I was warming up. I wasn’t worried about it when I was pitching, I was just trying to throw strikes,” Tolleson said. “But when I came out of the game it just really tightened up on me.”

Sounds iffy as to whether or not he’ll be back after his 15 days are up.

—–

In better news, Carl Crawford has been cleared to resume throwing normally.

Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford continues to build arm strength following offseason Tommy John Surgery, enough for Dodgers trainers to give him the green light to bypass his cutoff man and throw to the bag when the situation calls for it.

“I’m glad to hear that, actually, because I think as much as anything, he’s been throwing the ball pretty good,” manager Don Mattingly said before Tuesday’s game against the Padres. “I just don’t think he’s been feeling like he should be letting it go. So when the trainers tell him it’s OK, I think it makes you feel better as a player. You can turn it loose.”

Guys have been taking advantage of his throwing arm, but I’m not sure how much of that is due to the surgery and how much of that is just normal for him.

Either way, he’s playing well enough overall for it not to matter.

—–

Scott Elbert, on the shelf following left elbow surgery, is progressing in his rehab and responding well to plasma-rich platelet injections.

After two offseason elbow operations, Elbert experienced a setback midway through Spring Training, received a PRP injection and has rebounded steadily since. He has been throwing hard on flat ground this weekend and could be pitching off a mound in a week or two.

“I’m definitely a lot better, either from the PRP or the shoulder exercises, which also help the elbow because everything is incorporated,” said Elbert. “I wasn’t able to throw more than 75 feet in Spring Training, but I’m up to 90 feet now and my mechanics are a lot better.”

Even if he’s behind two other lefties right now, with the way the season is going, the depth would be nice to have.

—–

Steven Ames was placed on the minor-league 7-day DL.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it’s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it’s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.

Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it’s rare that a team with World Series hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team’s starting SS is out for two months and there’s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it all shakes out.

Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.

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Starting Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS – Luis Cruz
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

SS – Luis Cruz is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.

Yes, I’ve read the recent chatter about Justin Sellers getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release Juan Uribe, or they trade both Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (Jerry Hairston Jr./Skip Schumaker).

My experience with Ned Colletti and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.

3B – Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn’t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If Don Mattingly plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don’t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley’s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.

The alternative of Sellers’ .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!

LF – Carl Crawford certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he’s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can’t see him starting the year on the DL.

—–

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Skip Schumaker
B – Juan Uribe
B – Alex Castellanos

DL – Hanley Ramirez

IF Bench – The trio of Nick Punto, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti’s three standards, as reviewed above, so they’re basically locks to me. Tim Federowicz makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except Matt Wallach, and he’s not making the roster.

OF Bench – Why Alex Castellanos, right? Why over Elian Herrera and Alfredo Amezaga? Amezaga is simple, as he’s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don’t think is a quality player anyway, doesn’t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power … and Uribe, who can’t hit at all.

—–

Starting Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Chad Billingsley
5 – Hyun Jin Ryu

The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it’s been an adventure to get here, it’s basically worked out how it was supposed to.

That said, given the way the schedule looks, it’s possible that Chad Billingsley or Zack Greinke could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.

—–

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P Howell
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Kevin Gregg
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

Lefty Reliever – Sorry Paco Rodriguez, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.

Veteran Reliever – Kevin Gregg has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while Peter Moylan is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!

Starter Turned Reliever – Ted Lilly has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don’t whine to me about language. It is what it is.

What happened to Chris Capuano? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over Aaron Harang because he’s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there’s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can’t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.

Either way, I’m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I’m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that’s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned’s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won’t be a Dodger for long.

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Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because … of course it would happen.

Chad Billingsley reported no pain in his injured finger following a minor-league start on Saturday.

“In the past few days there haven’t been any issues with any tenderness. The only issue is with my curve ball because I spike it with my fingertip, which pushes the nail back into the finger,” Billingsley said. “I didn’t throw anything yesterday, and didn’t throw any (curves) today. I’m just let[ting] it have more time to rest or heal, without worrying about swelling or the nail falling off.”

The Dodgers continue to be cautious with Chad, but he’s been able to swing the bat since the injury occurred.

Billingsley later threw seven curves in a bullpen session Monday and was pleased with the results.

“I was happy with them,” Billingsley said of the quality of his curveballs.

Don Mattingly wants Chad to have all of his weapons when starting, although Billingsley seems willing to pitch even if he can’t physically throw his curve much or at all.

“You want a guy to have all his weapons,” said Mattingly. “It’s tough enough without having all of them.”

Billingsley said he would “cross that bridge when we come to it” when asked if he’d be comfortable pitching in a Major League game without a curveball, but also said there are games when he doesn’t feel he has other pitches and still competes.

Bills expects to make his first scheduled start of the season on April 2 should no issues crop up before then.

“The way it’s going now, as long as there are no setbacks, I plan to be ready,” said Billingsley, who is nursing a bruised right index finger.

—–

Carl Crawford is swinging the bat and throwing without pain.

“For Carl, it was a matter of timing. But the good thing for us was the three throws,” said manager Don Mattingly. “To see him not too much in a hurry on that last one, kind of one of those where there could be a play but he knew better.”

“I had caught for him out there before Stan (Conte, director of medical services) was bringing him back, and the ball had carry on it,” Mattingly said. “The ball was coming through me, and that was 10 days ago. I knew if that was the worst it was, we were going to be okay.”

Good signs, of course, though Crawford’s arm has always been suspect. Carl will continue to play the field during the remainder of Spring Training with a day-off thrown in.

Crawford is happy with his progress thus far and is encouraged that he’ll be in left field on Opening Day.

“Every time I get to do something, it’s a step in the right direction,” said Crawford, who will be ready for Opening Day barring a setback.

—–

Juan Uribe was scratched from Saturday’s lineup due to tightness in his right hamstring.

Doing everything he can to discourage the team from keeping him. I like.

—–

Zack Greinke wasn’t very good in his return, but the important part is that he came out of it healthy.

Greinke said his elbow felt fine after pitching in his first Major League exhibition game since March 1 and he should be ready to start the season on time.

“I should be. I think so,” he said. “I’ll definitely be there, if I can build up endurance. I need some improvement.”

So he thinks he’ll be ready, but I dunno, seems like a pointless risk to throw a guy out there who hasn’t properly built up strength.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The legend of Yasiel Puig continues to grow, and speculation that he will start with the year with the Dodgers went from 0% just a week ago to … something non-0% recently. 2013 aside though, the long-term question remains where he’ll end up playing for the team if he does live up to the hype.

Sure, Carl Crawford is out for a week or two (or a month) and he could get injured again, but it’s no guarantee. Plus, Adrian Gonzalez is anchored at first, so no moving Andre Ethier there.

So maybe a trade, right?

So do the Dodgers, though the decision on Puig involves enough people that it can’t take place in the keep-your-25-best vacuum. Crawford’s return from Tommy John surgery complicates things. If he is ready April 1 for the season opener against the defending champion Giants, Puig is far less likely to stay. The Dodgers want him to play every day. Their current outfield of Crawford, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier have contracts worth a combined $387 million.

“We’ve got a pretty sexy outfield even without him,” Dodgers starter Zack Greinke said.

Indeed, though freeing up a spot for Puig by trading Crawford or Ethier is a possibility. One of the great advantages of the $7 billion local-television deal the Dodgers signed this offseason is paying the freight for trading partners in exchange for a greater haul of talent. Which means that if the Dodgers find a shortstop or third baseman they like – because Luis Cruz and Juan Uribe aren’t exactly bright spots for the highest-paid team in the history of professional sports – they could offer players and cash.

“Send me Ethier and $85 million,” said one GM, referring to the amount owed on the right fielder’s five-year contract, “and I’ll give you whoever you want.”

Basically the beginning of this then:

No matter how much money a team has, there are limited roster spots, and the more the team invests big money in players they might not really want, the harder it is to move them to teams who DO care about money without operating at an extreme loss … and really horribly stupid.

Perhaps the scarier thought though is that the Dodgers might actually be willing to do something close to what’s proposed by the opposing GM, because if Puig is as good as advertised, they might not have a choice.

Javy Guerra has been optioned to AAA after a rough spring in which he dealt with injury and had been limited to just a couple of appearances. The Dodgers have a deep pen and, with Guerra’s injuries and struggles, he was going to have to excel during Spring Training to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Tony Gwynn Jr. was also assigned to AAA Albuquerque. Gwynn was one of the few guys with the ability to backup Matt Kemp and previous big-league experience doing so, but the move reinforces just how little Tony can swing the lumber and the fact that the Dodgers clearly have faith that Carl Crawford will be healthy enough to serve as the number two center fielder.

Shawn Tolleson and Justin Sellers were optioned to AAA, while Jesus Flores was reassigned to minor-league camp. Additionally, Chris Withrow was optioned to minor-league camp along with Juan Abreu and Wilkin Castillo.

—–

The team released three players in Dallas McPherson, Ramon Castro, and Nick Evans.

—–

On the flip side of things, the team has signed Dashenko Ricardo of Curacao to a contract after Dashenko participated in the World Baseball Classic.

Along with Ricardo came the signings of Dominican prospects Dennis Santana and Carlos Aquino – both shortstops – and lefty Cesar Romero.

—–

Tim Federowicz has probably locked up the job of backing up A.J. Ellis with the removal of Jesus Flores from major-league camp.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

So a couple days ago, I asked Eric Stephen of True Blue LA to ask Carl Crawford about his hitting mechanics, and he did so for me, primarily because he’s awesome.

Why, you ask? Because of my article for Baseball Prospectus back in October broaching that exact subject. Basically, I wanted to know if I was right so I could pat myself on the back.

:o

Anyway, he allowed me to publish the convo.

—–

Are you going back to your style and/or stance from 2010?

“I’m pretty much trying to get back to how I was doing things then.”

“When I got to Boston, my stance was more open. I’m trying to get back to being more square to the pitcher, and my batting stance isn’t as wide. Those are two of the little things I’m trying to focus on.”

On Going The Other Way

“Batting more square, more closed, instead of being more open. When I’m open the ball away looks far away, so I’m trying to get more square so everything looks closer to me.”

—–

I AM A GENIUS!

But seriously though, it’s positive that he’s trying to get back to his 2010 stance, because there’s a gigantic difference between his approach then and in 2011.

My hopes that he would carry on with his 2012 adjustment seems valid, as he appears to acknowledge that it’s something he could benefit from. Now all that’s left is to see whether he can stay healthy enough to implement it and whether or not he can stick to the plan.

—–

Amazingly, the evil dictator Mike Petriello picked up on Crawford’s comments and wrote about Crawford’s mechanics as well, though he picked up on one thing that I didn’t.

So what impact did the stance shenanigans have? Among other things, it made him unable to get to the outside pitch. Using the Baseball Prospectus heat maps, we can see that when Crawford was having his career year in 2010, with his stance slowly opening up, he was quite good at getting to pitches on the outside part of the plate. In 2011, fully open, he had absolutely no prayer. (And, it should be noted, even in September of 2010 he was beginning to have trouble getting to outside pitches.)

This is a cool finding because it expands on my point that he was struggling with hard stuff due to his timing errors. So now we have another specific thing to watch, which is his plate coverage.

In the end, a major-league player confirmed that I am an absolute genius…

…or maybe that he’s just trying to go back to the last time he was successful.

Dodgers designated hitter third baseman first baseman shortstop Hanley Ramirez jammed his right thumb while diving for a groundball in the World Baseball Classic and he’ll get an MRI today at the Camelback Ranch.

His WBC manager and general manager gave differing takes on the severity of it.

“I don’t think it’s bad,” Dominican coach Alfredo Griffin said.

Ramirez, playing third base for the Dominican, jammed the thumb while diving for a ground ball in the third inning. He remained in the game, even delivering a single in the fourth inning, but left after five innings.

Ramirez declined comment through a team spokesman. Dominican Manager Tony Pena said he removed Ramirez for precautionary reasons, even though Ramirez told Pena he could have gone on.

So Tony Pena didn’t think it was bad, but it’s odd to me that Hanley declined comment on it if he wasn’t worried, and maybe it’s because he is a bit, as Moises Alou sounded.

“Hanley, he jammed his thumb when he dove for that ball,” Alou said after the Dominican Republic ran off eight consecutive wins to go undefeated and win the Classic for the first time. “It was pretty swollen. He’s going to have an MRI on it [Wednesday] in Arizona.”

I guess there are differing versions of ‘serious’ at play here.

Just recently, Stan Conte spoke and although he hasn’t had an MRI yet, they’ve already ruled Hanley out for a couple weeks.

Director of medical services Stan Conte spoke with the doctor at AT&T Park, and team trainer Sue Falsone was in contact with Ramirez on Tuesday night. Both relayed their information to manager Don Mattingly.

“They painted both pictures. The optimistic side is that he had another at-bat and it’s just a sprain and it could be a couple of weeks,” Mattingly said. “The pessimistic side is that it could be something major and he’s out 8-10 weeks.”

So he’s going to miss time, regardless, and they’re obviously worried. If he misses two months of the regular season … welcome Juan Uribe.

—–

Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Sunday and reported no pain in his right elbow, which had been bothering him recently and been diagnosed as inflamed.

“I guess I could have something, but I’m assuming it’s going to fine to be on track to do whatever, but I don’t know for sure,” Greinke said.

“I probably threw a little more (than expected). I felt good. I was working on stuff, and trying to make sure I’m ready for a game,” Greinke said. “I’m just trying to get ready. I don’t think about it as a rehab.”

“I’m just doing what’s laid out, to give us the best chance. On our team we have other starting pitchers, and we have to be ready. They’re going to weigh all that in,” Greinke said. “I just want to do what’s best for the team. It’s not important what day [I make my first start of the season].”

It’s encouraging to see Greinke make it through a session without pain, and he’ll start a minor-league affair today with a strict pitch count in place. A.J. Ellis will catch Greinke instead of suiting up with the rest of the squad.

Manager Don Mattingly said that Greinke will pitch in a Minor League game in the afternoon, with A.J. Ellis staying back to catch instead of playing in the Dodgers’ Cactus League game against Kansas City.

The team should not feel rushed to get him back by Opening Day if he needs an extra week or two to get healthy for a long, long, long season.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s elbow has held up all Spring Training, but unfortunately he hasn’t escaped the injury bug as a sore groin is now accompanied by a bruised index finger on his pitching hand.

The finger forced Bills out of his scheduled outing.

“I’m just taking it day by day, seeing how I feel,” Billingsley said. “I’m still playing catch, but the command is just not there because it’s bruised and swollen.”

“(We’re not) trying to force him into this one. We’re concerned about the finger from the standpoint of changing a grip, then not having a grip pressure then changing an arm angle. With everything that has gone on, we really don’t want that,” Mattingly said. “The one thing with Bills, we want to make sure he’s able to throw.”

Glad to see Don Mattingly and his staff aren’t putting pressure on Chad to tough it out and are cognizant of the fact that doing so could lead to a change in mechanics.

But how did Billingsley injure himself, you might ask?

Bunting.

Yes, Matt, bunting.

Billingsley was scratched from Wednesday’s scheduled outing due to the finger. He’s scheduled for a bullpen session instead, and game action on Saturday.

—–

Carl Crawford, who has been dealing with elbow issues during Spring Training, saw improvement Monday in his ability to swing the bat and throw the ball.

“It’s good to see him get a couple of hits, which makes him feel better and more part of it. But even better today for me was him throwing, and Stan (Conte, team director of medical services) working with him on the cuts,” Mattingly said. “He had a lot on the ball. That was really positive today.”

“I’m throwing a little bit harder at (75-80) feet,” Crawford said. “At some point the goal is to be able to hit the cut off man, I’m not sure how many feet that is but that’s the goal.”

Once Crawford can hit the cutoff man, he’ll be cleared by the staff to play left field. Until such an event actually occurs, Carl will continue to DH.

It’s great that there’s no serious issue at play here, but the quotes on his throwing aren’t exactly glowing.

Though Crawford has also made progress throwing, it seems that won’t return until the regular season. But as long as Crawford is ready with the bat, that will determine when he’s ready.

“I don’t think he’s going to be 100% (throwing). When I asked Stan (Conte, director of medical services) when is he ready to really throw and he said, ‘May.’ So it’s going to be a work in progress,” Mattingly said. “But we’re building to a point where we’re comfortable with him being out there. We’re feeling good about everything about Carl right now.”

I couldn’t imagine a worse-throwing outfielder than Juan Pierre, but it looks like we might see it.

—–

Josh Beckett has the flu, which I can only imagine he caught from Ted Lilly.

Regardless, Beckett did start a simulated game against three minor-leaguers and Jerry Hairston Jr..

“Everything went good,” manager Don Mattingly reported. “He got better as the game went on. He was happy about being able to get it in. He was worried that if he did it in a [Cactus League] game and he had a long inning, he wouldn’t get his pitch count up and the up-and-downs. He seemed to be happy with it.”

Beckett threw 76 pitches and went through the up-and-down of six innings, pitching and resting in between.

Beckett’s had an excellent spring, so hopefully he won’t miss too much time – he’s been under the weather two days thus far – as he looks to carry his exhibition success into the meaningful regular season.

—–

Chris Withrow, who had been out with back spasms all Spring Training, returned briefly only to be injured by a liner off the shin.

Withrow escaped with a bruise from the Paul Goldschmidt shot, and he said he expects to be back in action in a couple of days.

“It’s been a pretty adventurous spring,” said Withrow. “I came in ready to go. For my back to go out the second day was kind of frustrating. Then the second batter, after seven months off, that’s not ideal either. Things happen for a reason.”

The guy just can’t seem to stay healthy, even when it comes to living life off the field, as a recent close-call indicates.

Things were adventurous for Withrow even before Spring Training started. He and his wife survived an offseason rollover auto accident with only minor injuries.

Hopefully he can find some good health in his future, as you can never have enough live arms with strikeout stuff.

—–

Dee Gordon is day-to-day after slightly spraining his ankle in a collision at home, according to Don Mattingly.

The shortstop walked off the field and back to the clubhouse on his own, and the injury isn’t believed to be serious.

Chad provided us with visual proof of Gordon attempting to run over (?) Miguel Montero on an overall laughable play.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Why hasn’t Dee Gordon emerged as a useful MLB player yet, right?

Well one play from yesterday’s game sort of summed up why he’s having so much difficulty.

On a clean single to left-center from Carl Crawford (yes, really), Dee freezes like it’s hit to the shortstop or something, then completely turns his left shoulder to look at the ball and identify the center fielder, which is something the runner should be doing before the pitch is thrown.

Thanks to the combination of his late jump and outstanding speed though, he’s sent home and is basically dead to rights at the plate, when he does whatever this is:

A hilarious, bumbling tackle/slide/dive fall into Miguel Montero‘s glove somehow works, and he gets the Dodgers a run.

Notice how after the fact he just lies there prone without touching the plate until Elian Herrera yells at him and points out that hey, maybe he should touch home.

The intangibles are off the charts, folks.

—–

All jokes aside, that’s Dee Gordon in a nutshell.

His tools allow him to be sent in the first place and give us a glimpse into the 3-4 WAR potential player that scouts see (used to see?), while his lack of awareness and knowledge (of the rules?) on the play show why he’s a -2 WAR player in reality.

On the plus side, Gordon has a .405 OBP this spring, with eight walks and five strikeouts, plus seven stolen bases against no caught stealings. On the negative side, he’s hitting .241 with a .241 slugging for a grand OPS of .647.

Not that it really matters anyway, since he went .379/.446/.485/.931 last Spring Training, making the conversation before the 2012 season primarily about how many All-Star teams he was gonna make, not whether he can ever have any utility in the MLB like it is now.

Zack Greinke, who was out with elbow discomfort and forearm stiffness, received an injection after being examined by Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

The team doctor gave Greinke an injection of platelet-rich plasma and anti-inflammatory medication. The pitcher has been prescribed rest for two to three days and then a return to a progressive throwing program.

ElAttrache’s diagnosis confirmed an MRI taken last week that Greinke had no structural ligament or tendon damage in the elbow, which has bothered him since his last start March 1.

Greinke has told the team he’s dealt with similar elbow issues in the past that never kept him from missing a start.

Greinke was set to rest for a couple of days before beginning a progressive throwing program.

For his part, Greinke chose not to speculate on the exact extent of the injury or self-diagnose:

“I didn’t really know exactly what the problem is, and I still don’t. They might, but I don’t. I’m not a doctor, I’m just kind of going what they are saying to me,” Greinke said. “I don’t have any definitive stuff to tell you guys. I don’t know if it’s the same problem as I’ve had in the past, and I don’t know if it’s a little different.”

On Friday, Greinke played catch, the first time he’s thrown since receiving an injection of plasma in his elbow. Afterwards, He reported no pain.

As it stands, the Dodgers are unsure of whether Greinke will be right by Opening Day and are looking into roster possibilities should he not be ready by then.

“Will Zack be able to make opening day? We don’t know that,” said manager Don Mattingly on Thursday.

Honestly, who cares about Opening Day though? It’s just an arbitrary date.

Obviously the primary goal should be getting him healthy, period, just like Carl Crawford.

—–

Carl Crawford is once again taking batting practice against live pitching.

Carl Crawford took the next step in his rehabilitation on Tuesday, as he faced live pitchers at Camelback Ranch. It was the sixth consecutive day Crawford has taken batting practice of some sort, and his quantity has increased from 50 swings each day to start up to over 120 on Tuesday.

He then hit against live pitching in a game and could be DHing soon in Spring Training.

“Carl was good again today. We’ll see how he does tomorrow. We’re talking about him possibly DH-ing soon. We’ll see how he pops out of these two days. We know he was sore today, body wise. Just regular soreness that you’ll have playing, and in a different gear,” Mattingly said. “We’ll see how he is tomorrow, and make some decisions.”

There is no rush to bring him back, so however long the process needs to take is how long the Dodgers and Carl should be willing to see it through.

—–

Chad Billingsley made a minor-league start on Wednesday even though he’s dealing with some mild groin tightness.

Billingsley had the right leg wrapped for his Sunday bullpen session and manager Don Mattingly said it is nothing major. Billingsley has a history of groin tightness in previous Spring Trainings.

The Dodgers had the day off but Bills carried on with his preparation as he looks towards the beginning of the season.

He ended up clearing the latest test with flying colors, just like all the others.

“Everything felt great with the groin, I had no issues with that. My arm felt great today, everything was good,” Billingsley said. “I had good command of all my pitches.”

It’s hard to not start to get encouraged by this.

—–

Javy Guerra‘s groin issue is more serious than Bills’.

The groin issue that hampered Javy Guerra in his one inning of a Minor League game Sunday, however, will “slow him down a bit, that’s for sure,” Mattingly said. Guerra, in his return from a week off because of World Baseball Classic issues, has downplayed the injury, which he didn’t reveal until after his Sunday outing.

“He’s telling me he feels good,” said Mattingly. “We’re going to be cautious. I don’t think it will be for an extended time, but we’ll be cautious for a day.”

In a crowded bullpen, especially if the team keeps eight starters, it’s not out of the question that he could start on the DL or in AAA.

—–

Shawn Tolleson suffered an injury for the second time this spring after he took a liner off his elbow.

Luckily, it should be fine and he won’t even go in for x-rays.

Tolleson previously dealt with a knee injury a week or so ago.

—–

Ted Lilly missed a bullpen session due to illness, the second instance this spring in which sickness has felled him.

It’s not a big deal, but for a guy who’s coming back from shoulder surgery and needs reps, the sickness throws him off schedule and puts him behind.

—–

Matt Palmer went under the knife for arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and is out for roughly six to eight weeks.

The surgery to clean up a medial meniscus was performed by Dr. Brian Shafer. Palmer’s knee locked up while walking after playing catch on Saturday.

Palmer had a 3.60 ERA in three spring appearances, having allowed nine runs (seven unearned) in five innings, his outings marred by several errant pickoff throws. He allowed nine hits.

The non-roster invitee had no shot of making the team, but it’s unfortunate that he suffered a non-contact injury and couldn’t at least compete and make a larger impression, one way or the other, on the club.

—–

Our very own Dustin Nosler is on the scene at Camelback Ranch and reports that Justin Sellers left practice with what appeared to be a lower-leg injury.

Ken Gurnick updates us on Sellers and confirms Nosler’s report, as he says Sellers suffered a sprained ankle.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

After previously reporting forearm tightness to the Dodgers, it’s been relayed that Zack Greinke is now dealing with elbow discomfort, which will force him to miss his latest Spring Training outing.

“Doctors have ruled out serious injuries such as ligament damage,” wrote Gurnick, who called the move precautionary. “Greinke has told the club he’s dealt with similar elbow issues in the past that never kept him from missing a start.”

Greinke skipped a bullpen session on Mar. 3 with elbow discomfort, something manager Don Mattingly referred to later in the week as “the little stuff with the elbow the other day.”

Missing a start is nothing, and the news about no serious damage is fantastic, but it’s a bit concerning that Greinke has dealt with two arm issues already, and the season hasn’t even begun yet.

Worse yet is news that he’s now on his way to have his arm checked out by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles, who is the Dodger equivalent of Dr. James Andrews.

#Dodgers sending Greinke to LA today so Dr Neal ElAttrache can examine sore elbow.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) March 11, 2013

The team continues to downplay the severity of the situation, but we have to wonder if they aren’t revealing the extent of their concern.

—–

Carl Crawford is back working out after being shut down for seven days due to elbow irritation.

The Dodgers will take it slow with Crawford now, limiting him to one activity at a time. He will begin with hitting off a tee or via light toss in the batting cage on Thursday.

“He’s doing good, but he’ll be monitored, more on a rehab program,” manager Don Mattingly said. “If we don’t have trouble in one area, then we can keep moving to the next area. If something flares up, we want to know what’s causing it.”

That next area will be throwing for Crawford, which will likely take the longest of his skills to return to normal. But there is still no timetable for when Crawford will be able to play in a spring game, even as designated hitter.

Crawford still believes he’ll not only be available for Opening Day, but will be starting.

The calendar says it’s now unlikely for Carl Crawford to be ready for Opening Day, but he disagrees.

“I haven’t accepted that at all,” Crawford said on Thursday after ending a week-long shutdown by hitting off a tee. “I don’t know who is putting that stuff out there. Even with a slower approach, there’s still a chance I’ll be ready.”

Still don’t understand why there’s this grand incentive for him to rush back in his mind. Not like it’s the start of the playoffs or something.

—–

The Dodgers are pleased with Chad Billingsley‘s progress.

“If you didn’t know anything, does he look any different to you than he looked any other time?” manager Don Mattingly said he asked pitching coach Rick Honeycutt. “And the answer is no. It’s really good news for us, the way he’s bouncing back and the way his arm is.”

“I’m feeling good, throwing hard, throwing everything,” Billingsley said. “They monitor everything, especially with me. In my whole rehab process that I went through last year, I had velocities I had to hit. The ball feels good coming out of my hand, that’s all that matters.”

Also of note is that Bills is dealing with a sore groin muscle.

Meanwhile, Billingsley is dealing with a sore right groin muscle, an injury he’s had in previous springs.

Not a concern for now, but injuries to the lower half can put additional stress on the arm.

—–

Javy Guerra is dealing with a minor groin strain but has been pitching through it.

Guerra downplayed the injury, calling it “something minor” that cropped up Sunday and led to a mechanical flaw. He said a “simple adjustment” made while throwing in the bullpen after his outing brought pitches that sailed high during the game back into the strike zone.

Don’t let him pitch through it, team with a reputation for playing guys who are injured which then subsequently exacerbates the injury and ends up making it worse.

The fact that he’s changing his pitching mechanics to compensate for it says it all, really.

—–

Shawn Tolleson, who injured his knee recently, has been cleared to return to action.

“I just felt something move in my knee and felt a pain, so it kind of spooked me. I didn’t want to test it or throw another pitch or anything. I came out of the game and they checked it out,” Tolleson said. “Everything checked out good and clean. Today there is no swelling, no soreness, no nothing.”

Tolleson participated in workouts on Wednesday, but only did light tossing, and no pitchers fielding practice.

Tolleson wasn’t able to duplicate the pain he had felt…

Shawn Tolleson, who left Tuesday’s game after experiencing a twinge in his left knee, tested it in a shortened bullpen session and said he couldn’t duplicate the pain. He’s been cleared to pitch an inning Friday.

…so everything seems good to go.

—–

Scott Elbert has begun throwing following two off-season elbow surgeries.

—–

Chris Withrow, out with lower back pain all of Spring Training, has begun a throwing program.

—–

Non-roster invitee Matt Palmer suffered ligament damage in his knee and will miss 6-8 weeks after surgery.

“We hadn’t heard anything about anything, but Sue (Falsone, team trainer) said this morning said he mentioned there was some swelling. It sounded like there were signs that he didn’t look at as signs at the time,” Mattingly said. “The fact that this thing just went while walking, it was going to go anyway, in my mind.”

Palmer was an extreme long-shot to make the team anyway, but it sucks to see him go out like that.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Zack Greinke missed a bullpen session on Sunday due to forearm tightness.

Greinke had “a little forearm tightness and thought it best to give it a day to let it rest,” pitching coach Rick Honeycutt said. “It’s nothing to be alarmed about. He’s had it before and he’s still expected to make his next start [Wednesday].”

Fortunately, it’s not anything to be concerned with at this point, especially considering Greinke was still participating in baseball activities prior to the game.

Greinke didn’t miss the pre-game workout, shagging in the outfield but making very few overhand throws.

Team is just being extra cautious with their new signing.

—–

The last time we mentioned Carl Crawford he was dealing with elbow soreness and was held out of drills as a precaution.

The Dodgers soon thereafter updated us with further precautionary measures, namely seven days off from throwing and hitting due to nerve irritation in his surgically-repaired left elbow.

To be honest, I wasn’t expecting a whole lot from Crawford this year, and my overall expectations for him in Los Angeles are very much tempered, but the fact that his elbow seems to still be balky is particularly concerning, especially now that even the Dodgers are saying Opening Day is iffy.

—–

Andre Ethier missed some Camelback Ranch action due to a callus on his right hand.

Ethier suffered from the same ailment last August, and Don Mattingly wants to be pro-active this time around.

“It’s kind of a callus that turned into nastiness last year by not paying attention. I don’t want to do that again,” said manager Don Mattingly. “It’s starting to get big. They’re trying to let it dry out, and not let it turn into what it turned into last year.”

Mattingly said if this were a regular season game Ethier would play, but given the luxury of spring training and a full month before opening day, the team is playing it cautiously.

I like that the Dodgers and Mattingly are trying to get ahead of this so that it doesn’t become a more serious concern, but why would he play Dre in a regular-season game and risk further injury when the implication is that the callus could become quite bad and detrimental to him without rest?

That’s how they’ve gotten into messes before, no?

—–

Shawn Tolleson hurt his left knee yesterday, and the injury is being reported as “left knee soreness”.

“Obviously we don’t know anything for sure, but it sounded like Sue was ruling out the big stuff,” said manager Don Mattingly after the game. “He still felt something that scared him, I know that. But it would be premature for me to speculate on what it might be.”

The Dodgers staff will run more tests and hopefully it’s nothing serious as Tolleson has a great arm and could be a part of the pen this year with health and a bit more seasoning.

—–

Matt Kemp made his Spring Training game debut following his off-season shoulder surgery.

“I swung and fouled a changeup. Last year, that would have made my left shoulder hurt,” he said. “I didn’t hurt today. That’s a really good sign that my shoulder is well and responding to the rehab.”

It’s good to see Kemp back in action after a serious injury, as the team’s 2013 fate will hinge largely on how quickly Kemp can regain his MVP form.

—–

Nothing major here, but Ted Lilly has missed time due to sickness.

Lilly, 37, one of four starters likely battling for the final spot in the Dodger rotation, was to follow Clayton Kershaw to the mound Tuesday but he has been out of camp a couple of days with illness.

Manager Don Mattingly said Lilly’s wife, Natasha, and 2-year-old son Theodore Roosevelt (really) were treated last week for flu-like symptoms, after which Lilly became sick.

Sure, sure, blame the wife and kid.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Carl Crawford took live batting practice against an actual pitcher for the first time since elbow surgery last August. However, yesterday he reported forearm soreness and was held out of batting practice and drills.

Crawford, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow last Aug. 23, took batting practice against live pitchers on Monday, but hasn’t been able to do so in the last two days. On Thursday morning when hitting off the tee in the batting cage, Crawford felt tightness in his forearm, and was shut down.

I wouldn’t overreact to it, but forearm stiffness is usually indicative of elbow ligament problems, which does seem normal since he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but it’s probably an indication that he’s moving a bit too quickly.

Update

Mattingly: @carlcrawford_ will not hit or throw for seven days due to nerve irritation in his elbow.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 1, 2013

Indeed, the problem was elbow related and it seems it was a more serious setback than they initially let on.

—–

Chad Billingsley and his balky right elbow made it through his first start of Spring Training without any complications.

“After the first couple of throws I’m like, ‘Yeah this is fun’,” Billingsley said.

“Normally when you sit for a long half-inning, your arm gets tight and your body starts tightening up. But I went out there and had no problem getting loose or anything, so that’s great.”

“As soon as I left (Arizona) in October, I felt I was ready to go,” he said.

The news is, of course, positive, but whether they want to admit it or not, his condition will be speculated on all year long unless he never falters in terms of both performance and health.

—–

Matt Kemp continues rehabbing and could see live game action sooner than later.

No official date has been set for Kemp’s Spring Training debut, but he’s taking batting practice without issue.

Kemp, who underwent right shoulder surgery in October, hit in the cages Wednesday morning and felt good enough to take on-field batting practice — off of Mattingly — later in the workout. Mattingly said Kemp was fine and his extension, even on full swings and misses, caused no pain.

Seems like he’ll be ready to go once the season starts.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. was sidelined with a sore left groin muscle and had to miss a few days of workouts. He later said he expects to be back today, which is a positive since he’s battling desperately for a roster spot.

Gwynn is the only potential bench player with significant center field experience in the majors, so this setback can only hurt him and his chances, especially if it lingers at all like his 2012 injury did.

—–

Luis Cruz missed a couple days of Spring Training action with flu-like symptoms.

Cruz was in urgent care most of Tuesday, where he received IV treatment. He has returned to the lineup and the issue isn’t a concern, unless he actually has the plague or something ridiculous.

Nothing to see here.

—–

Ted Lilly made his Spring Training debut Thursday after an off-season of recovery from shoulder surgery.

Lilly reported no setbacks as he worked his way back into shape.

—–

Matt Guerrier is healthy and ready to contribute to the pen following an injury-plagued 2012.

He opted to not have elbow surgery in the off-season, a la Billingsley, and instead received plasma-rich injections.

Guerrier’s curveball was especially sharp, a sure sign that, like Chad Billingsley, Guerrier has recovered from his injury because of platelet-rich plasma injections to avoid surgery.

“Curveballs hurt me last year when I threw them,” Guerrier said. “Today, it feels completely normal.”

“I was fairly optimistic after that,” he said. “Then once I started to throw in the offseason it felt completely different.”

Guerrier’s health may help us avoid Kevin Gregg, but Matt has never been anything more than a meh reliever, with just one season of an FIP below 3.9, and a K/9 mark that has never reached 7. The Dodgers don’t need to rely upon Guerrier to have a successful pen, but any avoidance of Gregg and the likes is a win, let’s be honest.

—–

Justin Sellers missed workouts because of an ingrown toenail, which he got removed, but he expects to be back today.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers, as a club, have a ton of injuries or guys rehabbing, so I expect this feature to be busy all season.

Two of the most important injury cases will start off today, as we get timeline updates on Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford.

Manager Don Mattingly said March 1 is a very rough target date for Kemp to get into games coming off left shoulder surgery. Crawford will likely be later than that as he returns from Tommy John elbow reconstruction.

“I don’t go definitely March 1 with Matt, because it might not be until March 5 or March 7 when he’s ready to play. That doesn’t mean anything’s wrong.”

Mattingly said both are likely to break in as designated hitters at first.

“Both guys I’ll DH a little early on,” Mattingly said on Friday. “Carl more likely [than Kemp]. He won’t get into games until the medical tests [clear their participation]. I don’t want him in a game and reacting and doing something like spinning to make a throw that we don’t want him doing.”

Kemp is doing all baseball activities, while Crawford is still on a conservative throwing program to rebuild arm strength with the hope that he will be ready by Opening Day.

Crawford is able to hit and participate in most workouts, but he is limited in throwing drills and hasn’t yet thrown beyond 90 feet.

Kemp will be delayed a bit, so he’s not on a completely normal schedule, but he sounds healthy aside from that and should be ready to start the season.

Crawford? Not so much. He seems intent on making an Opening Day appearance, but there’s no logic in rushing him back, especially given that he’s had the past two years submarined by injuries, and exposing him to injury risk by playing him at like 75% seems incredibly stupid.

——

Elian Herrera, who got buzzed in the helmet yesterday, appears to be fine.

Dodgers utility man Elian Herrera narrowly escaped injury Sunday when White Sox pitcher Jake Petricka grazed his helmet with a fastball.

“If I didn’t move, maybe I die right now,” said Herrera. “It was coming right at my face. Not good.”

Herrera remained in the game until the Dodgers’ half of the inning ended, then was removed for precautionary purposes, but said he was fine.

Considering that he’s one of the few options the Dodgers have for the backup center fielder spot, his health may end up being important the club.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. apparently tried to play through a sports hernia in 2012 but is healthy now.

Gwynn, 30, played with an injury that was never discussed by him or the club. He believes he suffered a sports hernia lifting weights after the 2011 season, but he never had an MRI to diagnose it.

“I didn’t want to know,” he said Friday. “I wasn’t having surgery no matter what I had.”

He was hurting last Spring Training, hurting when Matt Kemp went down with that hamstring injury in early May and the relapse in late May. Needing to fill in for Kemp on almost an everyday basis for several months, Gwynn’s already injured body finally broke down.

You hear this a ton, but it rarely ever works out the way players intend. I totally understand the motivation to play through major injury, but in the end, they usually end up performing terribly and aggravating the injury, which hurts both the team and their career.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is recovering from hip labrum surgery.

There was some measure of satisfaction for Jerry Hairston on Saturday just being in the starting lineup for the Dodgers’ exhibition opener.

Five months ago, bedridden after hip surgery, he doubted it was possible.

“It wasn’t easy,” said Hairston. “I worked really hard to get back. But for the first three months, I didn’t know if I’d be able to play at this level now.”

Unlike other Dodgers coming off surgery, it doesn’t appear as if the injury will limit him going forward.

—–

As mentioned in the other feature, Eliezer Alfonzo, who signed a minor-league deal in the off-season with an invitation to Spring Training, has been felled by dengue fever and was replaced in major-league camp by Matt Wallach. Eliezer will report to the minor-league portion of Camelback Ranch once healthy enough to do so.

The Dodgers begin their 2013 Spring Training with a ton of injury concerns, and now that the whole team has reported, it’s time for an update on player statuses.

No better way to start this off than with Chad Billingsley, who might be the biggest question mark of all even if the depth acquired has mitigated the consequences if he does falter. Coaches say he looks normal, trainers have him on his normal schedule, and he says he feels normal.

“I feel normal,” said Billingsley, who chose platelet-rich plasma injections over Tommy John surgery, as Takashi Saito did successfully five years ago. “There wasn’t a time in the offseason when I felt like I didn’t know if it would hold up,” Billingsley said. “I know some people think it’s an issue, but I don’t. I came to Spring Training not worried about it.”

“They pushed me, basically gave me a chance to blow it out, figuring if it was going to fail, it would be better to know then,” said Billingsley. “In the simulated game, I felt awesome. I’m really excited.”

Billingsley is on a regular schedule and he has no restrictions. “There hasn’t been any mention in any of the medical reports or anything else. His name’s not on a list, it’s not on anything. He’s just like one of the guys getting ready. We’re really getting to the point where we’re just assuming he’s going to be ready, and he’s going to be fine,” Mattingly said.

Difficult not to be encouraged, but we’ve heard this song and dance before with a lot of injuries, and it’s hard to argue against the previous science of trying to rehab partially torn elbow ligaments.

Remember, not if, but when.

—–

Carl Crawford is another gigantic question mark for 2013, and he doesn’t seem to be coming along quite as quickly as he planned.

Carl Crawford, though, is not as far along in his recovery from August Tommy John surgery on his left (throwing) elbow. He’s throwing up to 90 feet, hitting off a tee and hopes to graduate in the next few days to live pitching, which Kemp did weeks ago.

Crawford said he’s “confident” he’ll be ready by Opening Day, depending on what the Dodgers “want to see.”

“I think I can hit the cutoff man, but I don’t know if that’s where they want me to come back,” he said. “I think I’m an everyday guy, but I understand the thought of easing me back in.”

Crawford said he has no pain in his elbow, “just typical muscle fatigue,” and that his arthritic left wrist hasn’t given him trouble, but “it’s something to stay on top of throughout the season.”

Depending on what the Dodgers want to see? They want to see a healthy outfielder, not a guy who is 75% and lobbing the ball in to the cutoff man. He has a noodle arm as it is, after all.

On the positive side of things, Don Mattingly seems encouraged by his progress.

Mattingly was very pleased with Carl Crawford, who participated in batting practice today. ” Carl was good, I was really surprised.” “With Carl being out on the field for the first time, he’d been swinging,” but today was the first time he was out on the field in a while.

All three outfielders spent time hurt last year, so it seems weird they have three backups for the rotation, but don’t even have a platoon partner for Andre Ethier yet.

—–

Scott Elbert sounds encouraged even though he’s coming off elbow surgery that necessitated the signing of lefty relievers to ensure that the team isn’t just relying on Paco Rodriguez.

“They didn’t give me a time frame, but it looks like May,” said Elbert, whose second surgery led to the signing of free-agent reliever J.P. Howell for $2.85 million.

On Sept. 19, Elbert underwent a first procedure to remove scar tissue in the back of the elbow. But after beginning a throwing program, he developed pain in a different area that led to a Jan. 23 arthroscopic procedure involving “a new area of cartilage damage [that] was discovered and debrided” by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, according to Elbert.

“It feels a lot better now,” Elbert said of the elbow. “After the first surgery, I tried throwing for two weeks but had to shut it down. It never calmed down; it just hurt.”

Elbow surgery isn’t as significant a deal anymore, but when they start piling up, there has to be some concern there for the future a la Hong Chih Kuo.

—–

Kenley Jansen had a minor issue with an ingrown toenail, which doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about. Hell, I was almost glad the issue was that and not something related to his heart.

—–

In more worrisome news, Chris Withrow needs an MRI on his ailing back, the same problem that has plagued him in the minors.

It’s becoming a chronic issue, and while he’s converted to a relief role in an attempt to reign in his stuff, this injury might be a bigger obstacle to his progress than his command at this point.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Matt Kemp has begun upper-body workouts for the first time since offseason shoulder surgery. Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart, relays that The Bison is pain-free three months after his surgery.

—–

Chad Billingsley continues to progress from his elbow injury and has reported no setbacks thus far, according to Ken Gurnick.

“Physically, Chad’s doing great, and he’s excited about the year,” said Stewart. “He sounds confident. I’m not in his head, but he sounds like he’s relieved that the throwing program worked out well. He’s pain-free. He said he’s right where he needs to be.”

Promising news, but again, the reason for the rotation depth is that nobody really knows how he’ll hold up until he gets out there on the mound and goes full bore.

—–

Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles has an update on Carl Crawford‘s offseason progress and Don Mattingly‘s expectations of his continued recovery from Tommy John surgery.

“It’s all positive, nothing negative,” Mattingly said. “His throwing will probably be a little behind at first, but as I recall, he wasn’t a guy who had a cannon to begin with. He can go get the ball and he’s a good defender, but his defense isn’t really built around having a good arm.”

Probably one of the most important players for the Dodgers going forward, at least in terms of boom-or-bust potential. He can be anything from a 4-5 win player to a complete non-factor due to injury like he was the last two years, so obviously the status of his health looms large.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Nowhere to start here but with Andre Ethier rumors, right? Well, last time we left off on this rumbling, I was tackling a scenario where Ethier gets dealt and the Dodgers sign Nick Swisher, but there was one other frequently brought up possibility: Michael Bourn.

The Dodgers could pursue free agent center fielder Michael Bourn if they trade Andre Ethier, Rosenthal writes.

Bourn is an above-average hitter who has put up a 98 OPS+ in his four seasons as a full-time starter (.280/.348/.378/.726). He has never put up a season with an OPS higher than .739, but he’s still considered a marquee free agent because defense and baserunning count as well. He’s been worth around a win a year both on the basepaths and in the field, which results in a player consistently clocking in between 4-5 WAR.

For the Dodgers specific situation, there’s the potential added benefit of moving Matt Kemp to right field, which could reduce his risk for injury, since his bat is where basically all of his value lies. So unlike Swisher, Bourn isn’t an almost lateral move with minute benefits in platoon splits. Rather, he marks an improvement of a win or two and allows the Dodgers to field an optimal positional alignment.

As such, this would be interesting to me even if it came with a bit more risk in terms of length of contract and dollars. He’s headed into his age 30 season, and I don’t expect him to command anything less than a five-year deal, so certainly there’s reason to worry. Instinctively, I have concern about handing out significant contracts to players who don’t hit well (like Carl Crawford), but everything in the track record indicates this would be a significant upgrade for the team immediately, so I’d have no problem with the moves being done.

With all that said though, there have been frequent denials…

But even that scenario doesn’t seem to have a great chance to happen. “Barring injury,’” one Dodgers connected person maintained, “there is about a 100 percent chance Andre Ethier will be the [Dodgers] Opening day right fielder.”

…so why bother addressing this stuff, right? Mainly because I’d say it’s hard to rule out anything for the Dodgers right now, especially something that has the possibility of improving the team dramatically.

Besides, does anybody actually believe reports that the Dodgers are basically unwilling to listen on Ethier?

#redsox inquired about andre ethier at the start of winter & were told “not available.” more evidence he’s staying in LA

I don’t. So while getting all the moving parts to work out would still shock me, I think it’s not as impossible as represented.

—–

On the other front, the Dodgers are in on a reliever of some sort, with Joel Hanrahan being the leading rumor.

Joel Hanrahan has saved 76 games with a 2.24 ERA for the Pirates over the past two seasons, but his name has surfaced in numerous trade rumors this offseason and now Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweets that the Buccos are pushing to trade him (Twitter link). The Dodgers are one possibility, according to Knobler.

The Dodgers are not alone though, as there’s competition for him, apparently.

The Dodgers are showing interested in Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan, but they have a little company. The Red Sox are said to have an interest as well.

Not seeing what the point of this is.

A career 3.74 ERA/3.62 FIP reliever who was trending in the correct direction until his age 30 season in 2012 is not exactly what I would want to see in a back-end type. I mean, people already complain about Javy Guerra and he has a career 2.45 ERA and 3.32 FIP, plus he makes the league minimum.

I bring up Javy’s name because given a seven-man bullpen, Guerra is the one likely to be bumped to AAA in the event of Hanrahan’s acquisition, and there’s certainly a strong case to be made that it would be a downgrade to the bullpen. Certainly Hanrahan would add depth, but he projects to make ~$8 million next year, and no matter how wealthy the Dodgers are, spending that much for a neutral move and depth seems a bit much.

Left field has been, is, and will in all likelihood continue to be, a vast wasteland for the Dodgers. That is, unless Carl Crawford returns to his Tampa Bay form in 2013 or the Yasiel Puig era — whenever that actually begins — proves to be worth the wait.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s review 2012, which was a comedy of mediocrity flanking Matt Kemp‘s right side.

Shane Victorino

I start with Shane Victorino, not because he was any good, but because he carries with him name value. Coming off a career year in 2011, he dropped off significantly in 2012. Following a campaign in which he slashed .279/.355/.491/.846 with a .368 wOBA, The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit just .255/.321/.383/.704 with a .310 wOBA this past season. That line fell even further after he was dealt to the Dodgers, as he hit a putrid .245/.316/.351/.667 with a .297 wOBA in Dodger Blue.

Known as an elite baserunner with a great glove in center, some pop, and decent on-base skills, Victorino’s offensive numbers crashed across the board in 2012 from his 2011 and career marks. He set or tied career worsts in ISO (.128), OBP (.321), wOBA (.310), wRC+ (94), and SLG% (.383).

Shane still managed to provide some value through his legs (~5.0 baserunning) and glove (~2.5 fielding), and he ended up posting a ~3.0 WAR in 2012, but only ~1.0 WAR after the trade.

Reports have Shane seeking a long-term deal this year as he hits free agency, and though he’s intimated at returning only as a starter, with the aforementioned Crawford and Puig signed to long-term deals themselves — not to mention the fact that heading into his age-32 season — there’s no place in a crowded Los Angeles outfield for the three-time Dodger.

Bobby Abreu

After being released by the Angels and qualifying to be a Dodger based on his “veteranness”, Bobby Abreu started 42 games in left for the Dodgers in 2012, the second-most of any player on the team behind the previously-discussed Victorino.

After a splashy start to his Dodger stint (.318/.430/.424/.854 in his first 24 games, buoyed by a .438 BABIP, no less), Abreu was right back to the player that he was at the end of his Angels career, the one that got him DFA’d: .209/.325/.302/.627 over his final 68 games as a Dodger, which included a trip to the minors.

He won’t be back. Please listen to that, Ned Colletti.

No.

Juan Rivera

Juan Rivera started 30 games in left, hitting .282/.313/.376/.689 in the process. As he started more games at first than in left in 2012, he’ll get a more depressing detailed write-up in that Season Review.

Let’s just say his WAR was ~-0.3 and move on to other, less predictable matters.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

I’ve already been wrong before about the Dodgers ownership and their willingness to spend. I figured they would be willing to open up the checkbook, but assumed they would stop short of the luxury tax, much like the Yankees have tried to do in recent years. Instead? They have blown that limit away and now project to enter 2013 with the highest payroll in MLB history.

As such, I understand when analysts and fans cite an unlimited payroll and assume the Dodgers could acquire anybody at any time. After all, who besides Steve Dilbeck legitimately thought the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett deal was remotely realistic, much less likely? Still, what I find disturbing is this new rhetoric going around where the Dodgers have so much money to blow that payroll efficiency and management has now been rendered unnecessary.

Not only are they assuming that the Dodgers have an unlimited payroll, which is a significant assumption in itself, but also that the lack of payroll restrictions will exist for an indefinite amount of time far into the future.

If that were true though, then why not seriously go out and sign Zack Greinke, Hiroki Kuroda, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, and Mike Napoli?

“Oh you’re just being facetious.”

No, I’m being dead serious. If there literally was no limit to the wealth, then why not? All of the mentioned players would help upgrade the current roster, would they not? So if money isn’t an object, just designate players to clear room and sign them all. Then offer Andre Ethier, Yasiel Puig, and Zach Lee plus their entire contracts to the Mets for David Wright and then re-sign him for 10 years.

The reason why you’re probably saying that I’m nuts right now is because you know in reality that the payroll isn’t actually unlimited, we just haven’t seen what it is yet. As such, I stick with my assumption that there is a cap in mind and that it still needs to be managed on some level. The higher payroll provides the advantage of being able to fill holes with elite players in case the farm system is bereft of them, as the team is able to absorb the risk that other teams cannot. However, while overpays are to be expected in certain cases, what exactly is the point of overpaying average players?

Like on the Brandon League deal I see a lot of people going with the logic of “yeah, he’s not worth that much, but the payroll is unlimited anyway”. Well where would be your limit? I fail to understand where people would draw the line in these cases. Why not five years and $40 million? What difference does it make under the unlimited payroll logic? Five years and $75 million? There’s no end to it, really.

The rationale just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s the same train of thought as “well he’s better than James Loney” or “well he’s better than Juan Uribe”.

GREAT.

It’s a $200 million team, at what point does that stop being an excuse?

Now I understand that the instinct is to be optimistic, especially coming off the Frank McCourt ownership. I get it, perhaps more than most do, but I also feel that because there’s been no consequences for the team’s actions as of yet, people are getting way too deep into the forest made out of money to see the trees. It’s as if reality has been temporarily suspended and we all moved to this fairy tale land where spending money inefficiently has no consequences. And here I am, with my hand meekly raised, simply inquiring when that has EVER been true in baseball.

Then again, that’s just the conservative approach to things, and the Dodgers have blown past my assumptions before.

Matt Kemp should move to a corner outfield spot and be replaced in center field by Carl Crawford, says Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.

When we talked to general manager Ned Colletti after the season, he said it’s something the team might revisit later, but is not considering for 2013. Why? Alternatives. Carl Crawford hasn’t played center field since 2008 and also will be coming off surgery. The Dodgers aren’t going to force longer throws on his reconstructed left elbow by moving him to center. Andre Ethier has played all of one career game in center field, last season in place of Kemp.

It may not be a 2013 possibility, but it should be a 2014 priority. Crawford may not be as good as Kemp in center field. But if he misplays a few more balls or can’t get to as many as Kemp would have, it will be worth it if it means Kemp plays for six months, not five. Over time, pitchers often find that they have equal if not greater arm strength once they fully heal from Tommy John surgery. It shouldn’t be a long-term impediment for Crawford.

I thought it was an interesting case to make, but thinking about it, I’m not sure I would agree.

1) How sure are we that it would improve Matt Kemp’s odds of staying healthy?

I’m unsure exactly how much risk is assumed by moving into center field from a corner and how much risk is alleviated by moving a center fielder to a corner.

Usually these moves are done for reasons of age and range, not because it necessarily keeps them healthy. Sure, Kemp crashing into a wall caused him to scuffle for a month, but the majority of the time he missed was due to hamstring injuries that weren’t related to playing the field.

Remember, the only other time he went on the DL prior to this year was when he was playing right field and this happened:

So unless walls are removed from the outfield, I don’t entirely buy that he’ll be healthier playing a corner.

2) Is passing the risk onto Carl Crawford any better?

Assuming that moving does indeed lessen the risk for Kemp, then it will heighten the risk for Crawford, and does that do the team any better?

Remember, Kemp has had one injury-prone year, but Crawford hasn’t been healthy over a whole year for two seasons, and now he’s coming off Tommy John surgery heading into 2013, which will make it three. As such, I’m not sure moving one long-term investment to decrease his risk while increasing the risk of the another long-term investment is necessarily a good idea. Furthermore, Crawford simply hasn’t played center much, so we have no idea what to expect there, as he’s spent just 3.5% of his total innings over his career patrolling center.

Yes, Kemp is far more valuable to have on the field, but having both of them healthy and productive will be key to the Dodgers success, so why take the healthier player and move him while pushing the risk to the other? Not sure I can agree with that logic.

3) I don’t think moving to a corner helps Matt Kemp’s value to the team.

Kemp is a below-average to average center fielder, but as I’ve said before, I don’t think moving him to a corner would help his defensive value much. This is primarily because I think his arm, speed, and coordination are not the problem, but rather his reads off the bat are, so moving to a corner won’t change that. Sure, he’ll be competing with less athletic outfielders at a corner, so he’s bound to improve comparatively, but I don’t think it would makeup for the 10-run difference in value that comes along with the position switch.

In other words, putting him in a corner likely takes the Dodgers out of their most valuable alignment.

—–

With that said, given his size and value with the bat, it does make sense that the Dodgers would want to take the risk off Kemp’s body in the long-term, so I understand the suggestion that he move. The problem, of course, is that if this were the case, then perhaps the Dodgers should have thought of that before filling LF/RF/1B for the long-term.

As it is now, with the current roster, fiddling with the outfield alignment wouldn’t be helpful for Matt Kemp or the team.

Baseball Prospectus let me write at their site about a topic. I don’t know why, but it’s too late to take back now! Victory!

Anyway, it was about Carl Crawford‘s mechanics. I thought it was cool.

Go read it: here.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Even though he’s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach.

So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.

And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.

I’m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many Dodgers fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman invokes Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.

The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.

Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.

All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.

Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can’t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far better player and Rubby De La Rosa, while one of my favorites, won’t get to ace level.

Sports Illustrated: Jay Jaffe acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.

All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.

Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.

Dodgers Now: Stan Kasten says they aren’t maxed out yet though.

If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade — and close to a half-billion dollars in four months — is there a limit to their spending?

“Somewhere, I suppose,” Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.

And where might that limit be?

“I haven’t found it yet,” President Stan Kasten said. “I’ll let you know when we get there.”

Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we’ll see in the 2013 off-season.

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.

From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.

I’m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn’t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of Frank McCourt. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they’re already back up to third. As such, I don’t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn’t come back and they wouldn’t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.

Also, I don’t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We’re all speculating, but logically I don’t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It’s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.

Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.

Maybe, but I can’t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I’d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.

ESPN: Buster Olney names his winners and losers … with the Dodgers on both.

Winners: The Dodgers of 2012

They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.

Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers’ ownership group

In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don’t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.

Losers: The Dodgers of 2017

The team’s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years — Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers’ farm system should be replenished, and the club’s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have — and, in any event, Dodgers fans won’t have to worry about that for a while.

ESPN: Keith Law takes a good now and bad later approach as well.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).

They’re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.

Rival exec on #Dodgers: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2012

Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn’t simply say to BOS: We’ll take your bad contracts, but we’re not giving you any prospects of note.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 25, 2012

NL exec view:”The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett’s money and traded two great arms to get him.”

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) August 25, 2012

While I don’t necessarily disagree with their assessment, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.