The Dodgers have agreed to sign left-handed reliever J.P. Howell on a one-year deal worth $2.75 million, with performance bonuses that can take that salary higher, according to Dylan Hernandez and Buster Olney.

If finalized, J.P. Howell’s deal with the #Dodgers would be worth $2.75 million: lat.ms/1398TrN

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) January 5, 2013

J.P. Howell agreed to terms with the Dodgers. A left-hander for a very deep bullpen.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 5, 2013

Howell gets a one-year deal with LAD, for just under $3 million in base salary, and performance bonuses.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 5, 2013

After missing the end of 2009, all of 2010, and parts of 2011 with a shoulder injury, Howell remains a bit of a mystery, but one with upside. From 2008 to 2009, he was a ~2 WAR reliever annually, which is rather remarkable for a reliever who was generally not a closer. He always struggled with control a bit, but his success was powered by his ability to miss bats.

That segues perfectly into my concerns about his performance going forward. Since he has returned from injury, his strikeout rate his plummeted, which is understandable in 2011, but there wasn’t any significant improvement in that area in 2012. Thus, while his ERA improved significantly from 2011 to 2012 (6.16/3.04), his FIP didn’t (5.41/4.78), resulting in a replacement-level player WAR (-0.75/0.25).

His fit with the Dodgers doesn’t make a ton of sense on the surface, as the team does have Scott Elbert, Paco Rodriguez, and probably Ted Lilly, but the Dodgers can afford to spend money on a veteran and use one of Elbert/Paco as depth in the minors. As such, there’s little risk here, and some upside if he ever gets back to his previous healthy state. However, projection-wise, it’s hard to imagine him providing a significant upgrade over the demoted options, so this is a move that’s made more for depth than anything else.

So what’s next for the 2012-2013 off-season champion Dodgers?

Danny Knobler says Anibal Sanchez has been discussed, but Buster Olney says the Dodgers aren’t going to be signing any more pitchers.

As far as Sanchez goes, I’m inclined to believe Olney, because while I believe the team’s budget is comically high, I do believe they have one and that it would simply be overkill to get Sanchez.

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On the Chris Capuano/Aaron Harang/Ted Lilly trade front, Buster Olney says the Pirates have talked to the Dodgers about Capuano.

Despite the fact that the trio aren’t all that valuable to the Dodgers anymore, both Capuano and Harang have value to teams with stricter payrolls, because at the price free-agent starters are going for, a couple 2-3 WAR guys with 6 or 7 million dollar price tags are going to be a worthwhile investment.

I’ve had trouble gauging potential return though, because we’ve never really seen Ned Colletti trade for minor-leaguers in recent years. Either way, hopefully Logan White and De Jon Watson are in charge of that aspect of these trades.

Then again, Buster Olney says the Dodgers are interested in Joel Hanrahan, so that could be an option as well. If that’s the extent of the deal, I see no reason why the Pirates would hesitate, honestly. Clear win for them.

Los Angeles Times: Steven Cohen has been implicated in an insider trading scheme.

Tuesday the Wall Street Journal reported that Cohen had been implicated in a massive $276-million insider trading scheme.

Remember him? The guy who was once the front-runner for the Dodgers?

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd that’s why some of us didn’t want him as owner.

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The Book: Tom Tango argues that since teams are now allocated draft money, why not use an auction system?

Players would declare themselves for the draft, and set their own reserve price. If no one bids for them at that price, then they go back into the pool the next year. So, if Mark Appel sets his reserve price at 7MM$, and no one bids on him, then too bad for him.

You can even have teams sell their slot money at whatever price they want. If the Astros have 11MM$ in slot money, maybe they figure that they could sell that for say 19MM$ to the Yankees. They can then take that money and get themselves a free agent on the open market if they wanted to. Or they can buy future slot money. The Yanks may give the Astros 14MM$ of future slot money for 11MM$ of current slot money.

And how about this: a player can also declare which teams he won’t sign with. 20% of the final bidding amount on each player goes to the teams he didn’t want to play for. If for example Mark Appel declared he didn’t want to sign with the Astros and Pirates, and the Yankees bid 8MM$ for him, then Appel only get 6.4MM$, and the Astros/Pirates each get 0.8MM$ that they can use in next year’s draft. So, a player can direct where he wants to go by taking less money.

Love this. Love this so much.

Plus, the draft is currently boring as hell. But this? This would make it exciting.

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Buster Olney: Buster Olney goes hard in the paint at Hall Of Fame voters.

We can all debate about who should’ve done what to stop this, whether it was the union leaders or the owners or the clean players or the dirty players or the writers.

What cannot be debated is that over a period of more than 50 years, dating from the first use of amphetamines around the end of World War II into the early part of the 21st century, the institution of baseball generally did not respond to a rampant growth in the use of drugs. The union leadership didn’t respond. Major League Baseball didn’t respond. The players — current Hall of Famers among them — didn’t respond. Loose rules that were in place were not enforced.

In that vacuum, many, many players chose to use drugs, from the so-called red juice to good ol’ fashioned steroids. Many, many did not. We’ll never know exactly who did what, when they did it and what the precise impact was on their respective careers — and those of other players.

What we do know is that thousands and thousands of games were played, with thousands and thousands of players aided in one way or another by drugs, legal and illegal. We already have a Hall of Fame that includes former PED users, given the decades-long influx of amphetamines.

To stop a few of the participants at the door of a museum of history seems absurd, because the history occurred, whether we like all of it or not.

So the baseball writers ought to get out of the way rather than acting like overzealous crossing guards empowered by their ballots. The writers’ work should always reflect history, not determine legacies; that’s the work of the players, the good and the bad.

Yes. All of this.

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The Chronicle Of Higher Education: David Pargman makes the case for allowing college athletes to major in … well … being a college athlete.

Why do we impose upon young, talented, and serious-minded high-school seniors the imperative of selecting an academic major that is, more often than not, completely irrelevant to, or at least inconsistent with, their heartfelt desires and true career objectives: to be professional athletes?

Acquisition of athletic skills is what significant numbers of NCAA Division I student athletes want to pursue. And this is undeniably why they’ve gone to their campus of choice. Their confessions about their primary interest are readily proclaimed and by no means denied or repressed. These athletes are as honest in recognizing and divulging their aspiration as is the student who declares a goal of performing some day at the Metropolitan Opera or on the Broadway stage. Student athletes wish to be professional entertainers. This is their heart’s desire.

Their family members, friends, and high-school coaches acknowledge and support that goal, so why not let them step out of the closet and declare their true aspiration­—to study football, basketball, or baseball? Why not legitimize such an academic specialty in the same manner that other professional performance careers, such as dance, voice, theater, and music, are recognized and supported? Why treat preparation for professional sports careers differently? Why not establish a well-planned, defensible, educationally sound curriculum that correlates with a career at the elite level of sports?

He has a point.

Besides, maybe they would actually learn something this way, instead of sleepwalking through history or sociology classes or whatever else. Or cheating.

The Dodgers are the favorite to win the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.

According to an industry insider, the Dodgers are the favorites to wind up with top free agent starter Zack Greinke, with the Angels and Rangers on the outside looking in. And no starting pitcher on the market is going to be complaining by the end of the hot stove season.

Furthermore, “rival GMs” are telling ESPN‘s Buster Olney that if the Dodgers want him, they’ll get him.

The Rangers want Zack Greinke and are willing to be aggressive. The Angels want to keep Greinke. But ultimately, rival GMs predict, if the Dodgers intend to sign Greinke, they will get him. L.A. is also bidding for Hiroki Kuroda, whom they know well from his previous time with the team. “Cost is no object for them,” said a GM. “They are playing a different game than the rest of us right now.”

All of this is great news if you were worried (like me) about how the pitching rotation would shake out even with all this spending. Greinke, despite whatever concerns you may have about him, has more than enough talent to slot in as a #1/#2 type behind Clayton Kershaw.

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The Dodgers are also front-runners (or close to it) for Hiroki Kuroda‘s services, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.

Previously, teams have been under the impression that Kuroda would either re-sign with the New York Yankees or return to his native Japan to finish his career. But Kuroda has told friends that his first preference is to pitch in Southern California, where his two daughters are attending elementary school.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the Yankees are only willing to give him a one-year deal, which only adds to the chances that he ends up in California.

That is because, The Post has learned, the Yankees are willing to offer Kuroda just a one-year contract at present. Two other teams that seemingly would be attractive to Kuroda, the Dodgers and Angels, probably would be willing to offer at least a two-year pact to the righty.

I do wonder how much truth there is to all of this talk, because signing two or three starters in free agency (also rumored to be in on Anibal Sanchez) would mean they have eight or nine starters going into 2013. Now, after that A-Gon trade, I’m never going to completely dismiss a Dodger rumor when it comes to them spending money, but it does seem unlikely that they are in the lead for all these pitchers.

As far as Kuroda goes, I’m not sure how much legitimacy there is in him wanting a two-year deal. With the way he pitched a couple years ago, if he wanted a multi-year deal he could have got one, but he took that one-year deal because he wasn’t sure about his feelings in the future. Perhaps he changed his mind, but it would seem inconsistent with his previous behavior that he would now want to be locked in for more than a year.

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Dodgers are a member of the group of teams after Kyuji Fujikawa.

Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa started meeting with MLB clubs and touring their facilities this past week, reports Gerry Fraley of The Dallas Morning News. He’s already visited the Diamondbacks and Cubs and is expected to meet with both the Dodgers and Angels as well. It’s unclear if he’ll meet with the Rangers on this trip.

An interesting relief option out of Japan. Video from the 2012 NPB season here:

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Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe says Kevin Youkilis is on the radar for the Dodgers.

9. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, free agent — Good-sized market so far for Youkilis, at both third and first base, according to his agent, Joe Bick. The Indians are looking at him as a first baseman, while the Phillies and Dodgers are considering him at third (a back-burner option for the Dodgers). The Diamondbacks made a call, but Towers indicated they will likely not be involved.

Hell, why not, right? If the rumors are true that they’re just going to spend anything they want, why not sign Youkilis? Even if you like Luis Cruz over him, Youkilis is useful off the bench anyway.

The Dodgers are still in the market for a starting pitcher, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Source: #Dodgers not done. Looking for another starting pitcher. Nothing close.

Buster Olney at ESPN hears similar chatter, so there’s definitely something going on, which I suppose shouldn’t surprise Dodger fans anymore.

Since the Dodgers are actively looking for rotation help, it seems like a good time to take a look at what their potential trade options are at the moment.

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Placed On Waivers

Aaron Cook – He was placed on waivers almost two weeks ago, but no reports on whether he cleared or not. Making $1.5 million in 2012 and a free agent after the season, he has a 4.76 ERA/5.06 FIP/4.45 xFIP/4.32 SIERA. Needless to say, he’s not going to be an improvement over anybody in the rotation. Pointless to acquire.

Edinson Volquez – He was placed on waivers a week ago, but no reports on whether he cleared or not. Volquez is making $2.2 million in 2012 and has a year of team control left. He has a 4.10 ERA/4.12 FIP/4.21 xFIP/4.38 SIERA. While Volquez could help the team, he profiles as yet another #3/#4 type in a rotation full of them. However, there’s upside with him because he does have electric stuff. Not sure he’s worth the prospects it would take to get him, but wouldn’t mind having him in the right deal.

Jon Lester – Placed on waivers five days ago, but whether he cleared or not is unknown. Lester is making $7.6 million in 2012, is set to make $11.6 million in 2013, and has a $13 million club option in 2014 with a $250k buyout. He has a 4.98 ERA/3.99 FIP/3.61 xFIP/3.72 SIERA and that could make him a solid addition to the rotation. However, if he was going to be dealt, especially to the Dodgers, I don’t see why they wouldn’t have done so with the Adrian Gonzalez deal. I’d love to have him, but I doubt it happens because it wouldn’t make much sense.

Kevin Millwood – He was placed on waivers a couple days ago and there’s no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. Millwood is making $1 million in 2012 and will be a free agent after the season. He has a 4.28 ERA/3.76 FIP/4.26 xFIP/4.40 SIERA, so I put him in the same category as Cook and a notch below Volquez due to a lack of upside. Meh.

Jason Vargas – He was placed on waivers a couple days ago and there’s no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. Vargas makes $4.9 million this year and has another year of team control before hitting free agency. He has a 3.75 ERA/4.72 FIP/4.37 xFIP/4.44 SIERA, so it shouldn’t surprise you that he’s in there with Cook and Millwood. Not worth the effort.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Placed on waivers yesterday, there’s been no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. He makes $10 million this year and next year before hitting free agency. In six starts, he has posted a 5.10 ERA/4.19 FIP/4.37 xFIP/4.07 SIERA. While this article says he’s worth a waiver claim, four years of mediocrity and astronomical injury risk lead me to a different conclusion.

Shaun Marcum – He was put on waivers yesterday and nobody knows if he has been claimed yet. Marcum is making $7.7 million in 2012 and will be a free agent after the season. He’s currently posting a 3.19 ERA/3.74 FIP/4.00 xFIP/3.74 SIERA season, which makes him one of the few available that would be worth pursuing hard, as he could be as effective as a #2 in this rotation. Would depend on the prospects involved, but I like the idea.

Cleared Waivers

Roy Oswalt – He cleared waivers three weeks ago and is free to be dealt. Oswalt is making $5 million this year and has put up a 5.94 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.49 xFIP/3.39 SIERA line. Those are quality peripherals, but he refused to pitch out of the bullpen for the Rangers earlier this year, and the Dodgers have a backlog of average starters, so it could be a potential headache. With that said, there’s potential upside here, as his numbers indicate that he still has a quality arm.

Ineligible

Cliff Lee – For all those asking, it’s close to impossible. The Phillies pulled him back when the Dodgers claimed him earlier, so even though they could put him on irrevocable waivers, they would get nothing in return for him, which makes it extremely unlikely.

Rumors

Mark Buehrle – He hasn’t been placed on waivers yet to anybody’s knowledge, but he was named as a prime candidate for the Dodgers by Buster Olney. He’s making $10 million in 2012, $11 million in 2013, $18 million in 2014, and $19 million in 2015. Buehrle is currently putting up a 3.62 ERA/4.13 FIP/4.22 xFIP/4.37 SIERA, which is solid enough, but certainly not a clear improvement over anybody already in the rotation. Plus, he’s already 33 and he starts making the most money as he enters the steep decline phase of the aging curve. Meh.

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If the team isn’t going to be acquiring Marcum, Lester, or, to a lesser extent, Volquez, then I don’t see what the point is because nobody else listed would provide a meaningful upgrade over the five or six starters the Dodgers already have.

Perhaps the team has yet another surprise in store, but given the available options, this may be as good as it’s going to get for the Dodgers until 2013.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Even though he’s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach.

So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.

And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.

I’m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many Dodgers fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman invokes Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.

The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.

Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.

All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.

Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can’t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far better player and Rubby De La Rosa, while one of my favorites, won’t get to ace level.

Sports Illustrated: Jay Jaffe acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.

All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.

Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.

Dodgers Now: Stan Kasten says they aren’t maxed out yet though.

If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade — and close to a half-billion dollars in four months — is there a limit to their spending?

“Somewhere, I suppose,” Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.

And where might that limit be?

“I haven’t found it yet,” President Stan Kasten said. “I’ll let you know when we get there.”

Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we’ll see in the 2013 off-season.

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.

From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.

I’m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn’t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of Frank McCourt. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they’re already back up to third. As such, I don’t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn’t come back and they wouldn’t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.

Also, I don’t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We’re all speculating, but logically I don’t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It’s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.

Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.

Maybe, but I can’t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I’d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.

ESPN: Buster Olney names his winners and losers … with the Dodgers on both.

Winners: The Dodgers of 2012

They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.

Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers’ ownership group

In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don’t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.

Losers: The Dodgers of 2017

The team’s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years — Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers’ farm system should be replenished, and the club’s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have — and, in any event, Dodgers fans won’t have to worry about that for a while.

ESPN: Keith Law takes a good now and bad later approach as well.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).

They’re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.

Rival exec on #Dodgers: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2012

Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn’t simply say to BOS: We’ll take your bad contracts, but we’re not giving you any prospects of note.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 25, 2012

NL exec view:”The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett’s money and traded two great arms to get him.”

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) August 25, 2012

While I don’t necessarily disagree with their assessment, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello asks whether we should start worrying about Andre Ethier. Go over and read the whole thing, but he brings up points I wanted to address:

The obvious answer is that it’s yet another injury, but I’m not sure it’s that simple. Yes, he strained his oblique in San Francisco at the end of June and landed on the disabled list, and as his return coincided with the start of the second half it is technically accurate to say that “he’s been awful since he was injured.” The thing is, that oblique strain hardly interrupted a hot streak; over his previous 30 games before that, he’d been only at .241/.317/.352 (.669).

Nice. I had brought up on Twitter that maybe he just needed time off after the season to rest his oblique (notoriously naggy injury that can sap power), but he’s been struggling longer than that. Also, I looked at his swing to see if anything has changed, it hasn’t.

Here’s what I mean by that. Check out the percentage of lefty pitching that Ethier has faced over the last six years, shown in the table at right. For years, Ethier routinely faced lefties 25-30% of the time. This year it’s well over 40%, and as I hardly need to tell you, Ethier is absolutely awful against lefty pitching.

In my brain, I called bullshit on this. Either managers are figuring it out or he’s just run into an abnormal amount of lefty starters this season. My gut said it was the latter.

While I don’t have the exact amount of plate appearances against lefty starters for the team, I do have this:

So the dip that MSTI’s chart shows from 2010 to 2011 is expected, and so is a spike in 2012, but Ethier’s spike is around double that of the rest of the team. This suggests that while he has run into a bit of bad matchup luck this year, Ethier is indeed facing a greater diet of lefty relievers.

The league is learning, so when will the Dodgers?

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Beyond The Box Score: A frightening look at young stars who went on to disappoint during their primes, centered around Hanley Ramirez. It had me worried for a while, but his line is now at .311/.368/.544/.912 with the Dodgers, so that makes me feel better.

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ESPN: A.J. Ellis wrote a guest article at Buster Olney‘s blog and gave insight into what players are feeling around the trade deadline. Good read.

The trade deadline is now less than 48 hours away and the Dodgers are still looking for another bat and an upgrade to their rotation.

An additional bat should be the priority, but the Dodgers seem intent on securing an arm instead.

Either way, what are the rumors today?

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Remember that Ryan Dempster thing? Well, it’s still going on.

The Cubs and Dodgers are still discussing righty Ryan Dempster, tweets Yahoo’s Tim Brown. Left fielder Alfonso Soriano remains part of these trade talks, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Dodgers are said to be Dempster’s first choice, and he controls the process with 10-and-5 rights.

I think a package deal of Dempster and Alfonso Soriano is the most likely move the Dodgers make before the deadline.

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Jayson Stark of ESPN has the Dodgers in active pursuit of Josh Johnson.

Clubs identify the Dodgers, Orioles and Blue Jays as other aggressive suitors for Johnson while the White Sox, Red Sox, Braves, and Royals have checked in.

Still don’t think they could form an appealing package for him even if they wanted to.

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Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times says the team is chasing James Shields as well.

The Braves, Dodgers, Indians and Rangers are the teams most interested in Shields, who, along with Miami’s Josh Johnson, are two of the most prominent starters being talked about in advance of Tuesday’s deadline for nonwaiver deals.

Not entirely sure how much of an upgrade he actually is at this point.

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Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly puts the Dodgers on Shane Victorino.

Multiple baseball sources indicated on Saturday that the Phils’ talks involving Victorino were getting warm. The Reds, Pirates, Dodgers and Giants all have interest in Victorino, and scouts from those clubs have peeked in on the Phillies lately. The Dodgers have two scouts eye-balling the Phillies in Atlanta, and the Reds also have a scout in town for the Phils-Braves series. The Reds also like outfielder Juan Pierre.

Please no.

Moving on to actual potential upgrades, Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports says the Dodgers would like to get Shin Soo Choo, but Buster Olney of ESPN plays Johnny Raincloud and says it would take a ton for the Indians to move him.

Count the Dodgers among teams interested in Choo.

— Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) July 30, 2012

Indians think it’s unlikely they’ll move Shin-Soo Choo. They’d need the perfect offer to make it happen.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 30, 2012

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Dodgers have interest in Justin Morneau.

At least the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Giants appear to have some interest in Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, who is making a nice comeback this year.

Despite all the rumors, it doesn’t appear as if anything is imminent. The Dempster/Soriano deal is closest to being done, but most of the other rumors have the Dodgers just interested for now.

With that said, I doubt the Dodgers are done for 2012 in the trade market, so I anticipate things escalating quickly.

GM Ned Colletti says the Dodgers are far from done after landing Hanley Ramirez, as they still want a starter and a bat.

The Dodgers landed the middle-of-the-order bat they’ve been looking for in Hanley Ramirez, but general manager Ned Colletti on Wednesday said he’s still looking for a starting pitcher and another hitter.

“We’re still hunting for starting pitching. We won’t let this deal stand in the way of that,” said the general manager, who dealt starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and Minor League pitcher Scott McGough to the Marlins for Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate.

Completely makes sense, but who? Hence the mess of rumors to follow.

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Ryan Dempster Dumpster Fire Of Rumors

Yesterday, it was widely reported that the Dodgers were the front-runners for Ryan Dempster and that the team was confident they could land him.

A trade between the Dodgers and Cubs still seems “realistic,” Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

The Dodgers have the upper hand in talks with the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

The Dodgers are feeling increasingly confident that they can work out a deal for Dempster, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. The Cubs don’t have many alternatives given Dempster’s interest in playing for L.A. and his no-trade protection.

Today, it has been more of the same.

The Dodgers and Cubs continue talking and “might” be getting closer to a deal involving Dempster, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

Rival executives say the Dodgers are projecting an air of optimism about their chances of obtaining Dempster, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports (on Twitter).

There seems to be a consensus on his destination, which makes sense since he’s all but said it’s the only place he’ll go at this point.

I had no problem with acquiring Dempster, because I figured he would be the upgrade that would come the cheapest for the team. That is, until I saw this tweeted:

Source: #Cubs have asked #Dodgers for Allen Webster as primary piece in Ryan Dempster talks.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

Uh … yeah … no thanks.

I thought the price was supposed to go down as they lose leverage, not up.

Allen Webster is a more advanced version of Garrett Gould with better velocity.

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Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the availability of James Shields has drawn interest.

The Angels aren’t the only team in pursuit of James Shields. The Rangers and Dodgers have also made the Rays trade offers for the right-hander, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports.

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports says the Dodgers have alternatives to Dempster in … uh … vastly superior pitchers.

The Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on their list in case they don’t trade for Dempster, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

Odd but okay.

Jayson Stark of ESPN reports that the Dodgers are in on basically every starting pitcher on the market.

The Dodgers are in on a number of starting pitchers, including Nolasco, Blanton, Kevin Millwood, and Jason Vargas in addition to Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. They’ve also checked in on outfield and first base help, including Victorino and Justin Morneau.

The team is also looking at outfield and first base, which wouldn’t surprise Ken Rosenthal.

Source: #Dodgers deal for Victorino or Pence possible even if team gets Dempster along with H. Ramirez. LA has been in talks with #Phillies.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 25, 2012

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In terms of pitching, I’m sort of at the point now where if the Dodgers don’t swing a trade for an elite arm, I’d rather they just do nothing. If Dempster is seriously going to command at least a top five prospect in the system, why bother? With Ted Lilly on his way back, the team has five starters, and John Ely, Stephen Fife, and Webster wait in the minors.

As far as the bats go, I’ve already explained why I’d rather the team not acquire Shane Victorino, and Justin Morneau‘s 0.0 WAR line of .253/.314/.437/.751 doesn’t impress me. The only name that’s intriguing is Hunter Pence. His .267/.334/.447/.781 line isn’t impressive, but he’s a ~3 WAR player that would represent a meaningful upgrade.

It’s no secret that the Dodgers are desperate for help. Offense has been the primary problem of late, as the team is now feeling the effects of missing cogs like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Mark Ellis. However, Ned Colletti has been looking to shore up pitching as well.

As of the last couple of days though, seemingly as a result of the recent losing streak, talks have intensified everywhere, and the Dodgers are apparently trying to find upgrades wherever they can get them.

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A prime example of their current mindset is Buster Olney listing basically everybody as potential trade targets for the Dodgers. He mentions Jeff Francouer, Alfonso Soriano, Chase Headley, Edwin Encarnacion, Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee, Justin Morneau, Bryan LaHair, Hanley Ramirez, Daniel Murphy, and “Boston Red Sox leftovers“. I wouldn’t waste too much time thinking about scenarios for most of those names, as it’s just speculation, but it gives you a general idea of what the team is looking at.

Dodgers have scouted Bryan LaHair, and like other teams, they have concerns about defense. Maybe that won’t matter, because they need help.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 28, 2012

Ken Rosenthal‘s recent reports provide another example, as he reveals the Dodgers have been in touch with at least eight teams about a variety of positions.

According to major league sources, they have talked multiple times to the Cubs, Astros, and Brewers. They’ve also touched base with a number of other teams, including the Mariners, Royals, Twins, Blue Jays and Padres, sources said. The Dodgers would like to add a hitter, a starting pitcher, and a left-handed reliever.

So the Dodgers are contacting everybody in an effort to improve the squad, not just the offense, but also the rotation and bullpen.

Specifically, the team is looking hard at Ryan Dempster, who I wrote about before, and are even apparently considering Derrek Lee.

Speaking of the Cubs, the Dodgers are viewed as a favorite to land Ryan Dempster once he returns from the disabled list, sources suggest to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The two sides haven’t talked since the week before Dempster went down but a person familiar with the situation says Los Angeles has a very good chance to land the right-hander.

The Dodgers are lukewarm to the idea of signing Derrek Lee, and would prefer to explore other options first, a major league source told Rosenthal. Lee would require time at Triple-A and the Dodgers seem to prefer more certainty and perhaps a more immediate solution at first base.

Would take the Lee interest with a grain of salt, but the Dodgers are clearly looking for just about anybody who is alive and can play first base at this point.

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So with that established, the hot button issue at the moment are the rumors involving Zach Lee, Garrett Gould, Jed Lowrie, and Carlos Lee.

9:02pm: The Dodgers are talking to the Astros about a trade that would send Jed Lowrie to the Dodgers with minor-leaguers Zach Lee and Garrett Gould headed to Houston, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter). One source place the odds of the deal taking place at about 50-50 right now, Olney tweets.

I understood the interest in Lowrie, as Dee Gordon has been a black hole, both offensively and defensively, but Carlos is a marginal upgrade at best, if he even is one.

10:11pm: The Dodgers asked about Lowrie, but he’s now not in the current talks, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com. A source says that there’s a 50-50 shot that Carlos Lee accepts a deal to Los Angeles for pitching prospects.

This is where I got negative. With Lowrie out of the picture, it’s Carlos for “pitching prospects”, plural.

9:57pm: Dodgers‬’ talks with ‪Astros‬ involve Carlos Lee, not Jed Lowrie, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Lee would need to a approve deal and has the right to block a deal to the Dodgers.

As I was expressing on Twitter, I’m not thrilled with the idea of trading prospects for Carlos Lee. A solid segment of fans disagreed though, as they were generally enamored with acquiring an upgrade over James Loney. I’m just not sure Carlos Lee is the guy they’re looking for.

Carlos Lee’s current slash line is .290/.342/.412/.754, which is in line with his recent production, and he projects to hit .276/.328/.434/.762 the rest of the way. Additionally, consider that he’s a terrible defender in the outfield and a fringe to poor defender at first base.

James Loney’s current line is .236/.303/.323/.626, which is partially the result of lower than normal BABIP. He projects to hit .266/.327/.387/.714 the rest of the way. Plus, he plays above-average to plus defense at first.

Now 50 points difference in OPS is nothing to scoff at, but factor in the defense and then consider that Loney has a .802 OPS career against righties (.669 against lefties) and Juan Rivera has a .821 career OPS against lefties (.747 against righties). Now the gap is basically non-existent.

You know how to tell that this trade is an iffy upgrade? When it’s even arguable as to whether a potential acquisition is an improvement over James Loney and Juan Rivera.

Then there’s the matter of the prospects involved, but I already gave my thoughts on that through Twitter.

My problem isn’t the prospects involved as much as it is getting players who are decent in return, which Ned has trouble doing.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) June 30, 2012

Garrett Gould most likely busts anyway, as do most prospects, but surrendering them randomly for crap is pointless.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) June 30, 2012

The discussion is about the logic behind giving up assets at random because “it’s an upgrade now”.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) June 30, 2012

It’s not so much about the prospects, it’s about giving away legitimate assets for questionable upgrades.

Some people are happy to give away prospects for immediate upgrades, no matter how small, but why give away prospects for basically no reason? Throwing shit against the wall may work in small sample sizes, but do it enough and you’ll get burned more often than not.

The Dodgers under Colletti have made a habit of surrendering solid assets for marginal upgrades, so it’s a legitimate concern for fans, and history indicates we have every right to be.

If the initial reaction to the Dodgers giving Yasiel Puig the contract they did wasn’t pessimistic enough to make you feel the same, then Ben Badler‘s compilation of reactions from around baseball might send you down that road.

The Dodgers appear to have made a statement with an expensive Cuban signing, but the message they sent across baseball has mostly elicited the same response:

What are the Dodgers thinking?

One executive called the deal “crazy.” Several others were floored by the reported contract terms.

“I don’t know,” said one international director, echoing several of his colleagues. “I don’t know what’s going on in Dodger land. They must have seen something.”

“Leslie Anderson’s numbers were good in Cuba—where’s he at?” said one Latin American director. “It means nothing. You don’t want their numbers to be bad, but just because they’re good doesn’t mean anything.”

“You had many chances to see Cespedes play,” said a second Latin American director. “This guy’s kind of an unknown. I don’t know. That’s their flavor.”

“Cespedes is a much better athlete, more of a complete package,” said a third Latin American director. “He’s a center fielder, good arm. (Puig has) got power and he runs OK, the bat stays through the zone quite a bit. He’s strong, not quite as strong as (Dayan) Viciedo, but he’s currently got plus power. I don’t know if they even had anyone close to beating them.”

“For me, you have to have history in order to make that kind of investment,” said the third Latin American director, “and we certainly didn’t have that kind of history.”

If you’re trying to look for a light, talent evaluators are wrong a lot. Unfortunately, there seems to be a consensus here that the Dodgers went insane with the spending, even with the new CBA coming into effect.

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Buster Olney of ESPN reported that one team evaluated him as a $500,000 talent.

Huge disparity of opinion around the game on LAD’s $42m signing of Yasiel Puig. One team told me they pegged him as a $500,000 player.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 29, 2012

Surely a bit of gamesmanship and hindsight, but it does give one the idea that most teams weren’t anywhere close to the figure the Dodger doled out.

As if there weren’t already enough reasons to not want Steven Cohen to win the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise, Tony La Russa might now be involved with his bid.

Tony La Russa could play a major role in revitalizing the Dodgers if Steven Cohen buys the team.

La Russa met with Cohen last weekend in Arizona, according to two people familiar with the sale process but not authorized to comment. The two men discussed how La Russa might fit with the Dodgers, the people said, but no agreement was reached and La Russa has made no commitment.

Cohen, the hedge-fund billionaire, has aligned with longtime agent Arn Tellem. If Cohen wins the Dodgers, he is expected to appoint Tellem as team president.

La Russa, who retired after managing the St. Louis Cardinals to the World Series championship last fall, could consider overseeing the Dodgers’ baseball operations, much as former manager Joe Torre could have done had his bid with Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso been successful.

Do. Not. Want.

Of course, I expect casual fan to stump for this, probably under the guise that TLR is a winner or some crap like that.

Great.

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In happier news, Peter Guber, who is currently the co-owner of the NBA‘s Golden State Warriors, has joined Magic Johnson‘s bidding group for the team.

Guber would be a minority investor in the group. Johnson is an investor in the Dayton Dragons, one of several minor league baseball franchises owned and operated by Guber’s Mandalay Sports. The Dragons have sold out 844 consecutive games, an ongoing record for a North American professional sports franchise.

Guber and Johnson also have been partners in the entertainment business. When he was chief executive at Sony Entertainment, Guber helped Johnson launch his chain of movie theaters.

Guber declined to comment. His decision to join the Johnson bid group was confirmed by two people familiar with the Dodgers sale process but not authorized to comment publicly.

I hope this puts Magic’s group over the top, because TLR … ugh.

In related news, the best thing I read all of yesterday was Buster Olney reporting that the feeling among some executives is that Magic is the front-runner.

With miles to go before the end of the process, some baseball execs believe Magic Johnson’s group is the current front-runner to buy LAD.

I seriously hope I’m not getting my hopes up for nothing.

While there’s nothing wrong with pipe dreams, and the speculation about the Los Angeles Dodgers and Prince Fielder was inevitable given the team’s needs and his need for a team, it was never all that realistic.

As such, Buster Olney‘s suggestion was understandable, but Bill Shaikin‘s rebuttal was reasonable, as Mike Petriello pointed out.

As you can imagine, I tend to agree with Shaikin on this. While Olney’s points are valid, we’ve been talking a lot this week about just how much money the Dodgers are expected to go for – by all indications, it’ll be record-shattering. I find it hard to believe that a franchise which might already come close to doubling the previous MLB sale record would get an even further boost by adding Fielder; as Shaikin suggests, it might actually lower the price. Besides, if you’re willing to toss more than a billion dollars into purchasing a baseball team, you almost by definition have a large ego. I’m thinking that a new owner would prefer to be the one seen as rescuing the team and bringing in big stars, not inheriting someone that McCourt brought in.

Earlier today, as if to drive a stake through the heart of a rumor on life support to begin with, essentially all scenarios involving Fielder landing in a Dodgers uniform were squashed out.

Dodgers taking a shot in the dark by discussing a contract with him at all? Nah.

The #Dodgers, at the moment, are not involved in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, source says.

One year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers and then sign with the Dodgers next year? Nope.

I’m told #Brewers invited Fielder to return for 1 year so as to get mega-deal from new #Dodgers owner next winter. Boras showed no interest.

Frank McCourt rewarding Dodgers fans by signing him? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

McCourt laughs at question about #Dodgers interest in Prince Fielder. “We’re not going to talk about that,” he said.

While it’s depressing that the Dodgers won’t be able to fill a gigantic void with an MVP candidate, the probability of that happening was always slim-to-none, but at least we all got yet another peek at why McCourt is a gigantic worthless asshole.