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	<title>Chad Moriyama &#187; Bryan LaHair</title>
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	<description>Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting</description>
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		<title>Trade Rumors: Dodgers On Dempster, Soriano, LaHair, Shields, Johnson, Morneau</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/trade-rumors-dodgers-on-dempster-soriano-lahair-shields-johnson-morneau/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/trade-rumors-dodgers-on-dempster-soriano-lahair-shields-johnson-morneau/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Jul 2012 16:41:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alfonso Soriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Allen Webster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryan LaHair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago Cubs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Withrow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Knobler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garrett Gould]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Shields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Crasnick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Heyman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Lindblom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Wall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Willingham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Morneau]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Garza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Dempster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shane Victorino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shawn Tolleson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=8489</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Dodgers rejected a deal of Ryan Dempster for Allen Webster. The Cubs offered to send Ryan Dempster to his preferred Dodgers straight up for solid right-handed pitching prospect Allen Webster, but the Dodgers have rejected the offer. The issue seems to be this: The Dodgers don&#8217;t appear ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/JoshJohnson-575x323.jpeg" alt="" title="JoshJohnson" width="575" height="323" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8490" /></p>
<p><strong>Jon Heyman</strong> of <strong>CBS Sports</strong> <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19663926/cubs-offer-of-dempster-for-webster-rejected-by-dodgers-who-seem-to-prefer-garza" target="_blank">reports</a> that the <strong>Dodgers</strong> rejected a deal of <strong>Ryan Dempster</strong> for <strong>Allen Webster</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Cubs offered to send Ryan Dempster to his preferred Dodgers straight up for solid right-handed pitching prospect Allen Webster, but the Dodgers have rejected the offer.</p>
<p>The issue seems to be this: The Dodgers don&#8217;t appear to love Dempster quite as much as he loves them.</p>
<p>According to people briefed on the talks, the Dodgers have thus far offered a couple of lesser prospects, guys who may project as relievers.</p></blockquote>
<p>Could it be that the Dodgers offered some combination of <strong>Josh Lindblom</strong>, <strong>Shawn Tolleson</strong>, <strong>Josh Wall</strong>, and <strong>Chris Withrow</strong>?</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%2523Dodgers">#Dodgers</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%2523Cubs">#Cubs</a> discussing a Ryan Dempster-for-Josh Lindblom deal, source says.</p>
<p>&mdash; Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) <a href="https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/229015000063295488" data-datetime="2012-07-28T00:46:45+00:00">July 28, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Seems likely that the offered deal from the Dodgers side would include both Withrow and Lindblom because the <strong>Cubs</strong> were <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/dodgers-have-deal-on-table-for-ryan-dempster-involving-two-pitching-prospects/" target="_blank">previously rumored to have shown interest in Withrow</a>.</p>
<p>In related trade news, <strong>Danny Knobler</strong> of CBS Sports <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/19668820/dodgers-may-consider-adding-soriano-or-lahair-to-a-dempster-deal-with-cubs" target="_blank">reports</a> that the trade might be expanded to include <strong>Bryan LaHair</strong> or <strong>Alfonso Soriano</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers and Cubs, stalled on what the Dodgers would give up in a trade for Ryan Dempster, have had some discussions on expanding the deal to also include Alfonso Soriano or Bryan LaHair, sources say.</p>
<p>The inclusion of Soriano or LaHair is still viewed as a longshot, perhaps even a &#8220;massive longshot,&#8221; as one person briefed on the discussions described it.</p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;m guessing that an expanded deal would include haggling over either money (Soriano) or prospects (LaHair). Plus, it would probably include Webster or <strong>Garrett Gould</strong> in addition to a reliever or two.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>If the Dodgers can&#8217;t get Dempster, their attention may turn towards <strong>James Shields</strong> or <strong>Josh Johnson</strong>, <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19669537/dodgers-considering-shields-and-johnson-with-demspter-deal-on-hold" target="_blank">according</a> to Heyman.</p>
<blockquote><p>With the Dodgers and Cubs seemingly at an impasse in Ryan Dempster talks, the Dodgers are looking at Josh Johnson and James Shields as rotation alternatives.</p></blockquote>
<p>Johnson <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/josh-johnson-rumors-friday.html" target="_blank">won&#8217;t come cheap</a> though.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Marlins seek a Mark Teixeira-like package for Josh Johnson, Jon Heyman reported yesterday. In other words, Miami seeks at least three good young pieces for the right-hander. The Blue Jays are pursuing Johnson and the Rangers, Angels and Orioles also appear to have interest.</p></blockquote>
<p>Not sure it matters at that price, because the Dodgers don&#8217;t have the horses in the system to make the trade feasible.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Garza</strong> of the Cubs was once considered an option, but it <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/matt-garza-likely-staying-put.html" target="_blank">doesn&#8217;t look like</a> he&#8217;ll be dealt anymore.</p>
<blockquote><p>Matt Garza won’t start before Tuesday’s non-waiver trade deadline, so the chances of a midseason deal involving the right-hander are remote, Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reports (on Twitter). Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio notes that Garza might not be traded until the offseason (on Twitter).</p>
<p>An MRI revealed a slight fluid buildup in Garza&#8217;s triceps area, manager Dale Sveum told reporters, including Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com. The Dodgers and Red Sox are among the teams with reported interest in Garza.</p></blockquote>
<p>Only reason I worry about this is because it seems more and more like the Dodgers only rotation option is Dempster, which lessens their leverage in a deal.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Bats are <a href="https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/228991312949559296" target="_blank">a priority</a> for the Dodgers <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/19668820/dodgers-may-consider-adding-soriano-or-lahair-to-a-dempster-deal-with-cubs" target="_blank">as well</a>, but are more rumor than substance at this point.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers have talked about quite a few other hitters, including both Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham of the Twins. The Twins have said it&#8217;s a longshot that they trade Willingham, however.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Phillies still listening on Victorino. Reds, Dodgers, Pirates &#038; Giants among teams interested. But no indication they&#8217;re ready to deal him</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Justin Morneau</strong> is the most intriguing target to me, specifically because he&#8217;s making $14 million this year and $14 million next year. His line of .256/.318/.448/.766 is far from impressive, and there are injury concerns, but he does have upside. Plus, the amount of money he&#8217;s making is not likely something the <strong>Twins</strong> want to deal with, so he might not be as expensive in terms of prospects.</p>
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		<title>Dodgers Desperate For Help, Essentially Interested In Everybody + Potential Carlos Lee Trade</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-desperate-for-help-essentially-interested-in-everybody-potential-carlos-lee-trade/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-desperate-for-help-essentially-interested-in-everybody-potential-carlos-lee-trade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2012 14:45:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryan LaHair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Buster Olney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derrek Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garrett Gould]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Loney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jed Lowrie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Rosenthal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Dempster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Lee]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=7926</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s no secret that the Dodgers are desperate for help. Offense has been the primary problem of late, as the team is now feeling the effects of missing cogs like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Mark Ellis. However, Ned Colletti has been looking to shore up pitching as well. As of the last couple of ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/CarlosLee-575x399.jpg" alt="" title="CarlosLee" width="575" height="399" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927" /></p>
<p>It&#8217;s no secret that the <strong>Dodgers</strong> are desperate for help. Offense has been the primary problem of late, as the team is now feeling the effects of missing cogs like <strong>Matt Kemp</strong>, <strong>Andre Ethier</strong>, and <strong>Mark Ellis</strong>. However, <strong>Ned Colletti</strong> has been looking to shore up pitching as well.</p>
<p>As of the last couple of days though, seemingly as a result of the recent losing streak, talks have intensified everywhere, and the Dodgers are apparently trying to find upgrades wherever they can get them.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>A prime example of their current mindset is <strong>Buster Olney</strong> <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8106690/los-angeles-dodgers-need-offensive-help-options-limited-mlb" target="_blank">listing basically everybody</a> as potential trade targets for the Dodgers. He mentions <strong>Jeff Francouer</strong>, <strong>Alfonso Soriano</strong>, <strong>Chase Headley</strong>, <strong>Edwin Encarnacion</strong>, <strong>Vernon Wells</strong>, <strong>Carlos Lee</strong>, <strong>Justin Morneau</strong>, <strong>Bryan LaHair</strong>, <strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong>, <strong>Daniel Murphy</strong>, and &#8220;<em>Boston Red Sox leftovers</em>&#8220;. I wouldn&#8217;t waste too much time thinking about scenarios for most of those names, as it&#8217;s just speculation, but it gives you a general idea of what the team is looking at.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Dodgers have scouted Bryan LaHair, and like other teams, they have concerns about defense. Maybe that won&#8217;t matter, because they need help.</p>
<p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/218156090716733441" data-datetime="2012-06-28T01:37:19+00:00">June 28, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Ken Rosenthal</strong>&#8216;s recent <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/dodgers-notes-cubs-brewers-dempster-lee.html" target="_blank">reports</a> provide another example, as he reveals the Dodgers have been in touch with at least eight teams about a variety of positions.</p>
<blockquote><p>According to major league sources, they have talked multiple times to the Cubs, Astros, and Brewers.  They&#8217;ve also touched base with a number of other teams, including the Mariners, Royals, Twins, Blue Jays and Padres, sources said.  The Dodgers would like to add a hitter, a starting pitcher, and a left-handed reliever.</p></blockquote>
<p>So the Dodgers are contacting everybody in an effort to improve the squad, not just the offense, but also the rotation and bullpen.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/dodgers-notes-cubs-brewers-dempster-lee.html" target="_blank">Specifically</a>, the team is looking hard at <strong>Ryan Dempster</strong>, <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-have-six-quality-starters-but-ryan-dempster-interest-understandable/" target="_blank">who I wrote about before</a>, and are even apparently considering <strong>Derrek Lee</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>Speaking of the Cubs, the Dodgers are viewed as a favorite to land Ryan Dempster once he returns from the disabled list, sources suggest to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The two sides haven&#8217;t talked since the week before Dempster went down but a person familiar with the situation says Los Angeles has a very good chance to land the right-hander.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers are lukewarm to the idea of signing Derrek Lee, and would prefer to explore other options first, a major league source told Rosenthal.  Lee would require time at Triple-A and the Dodgers seem to prefer more certainty and perhaps a more immediate solution at first base.</p></blockquote>
<p>Would take the Lee interest with a grain of salt, but the Dodgers are clearly looking for just about anybody who is alive and can play first base at this point.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>So with that established, the hot button issue at the moment are <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/dodgers-astros-discussion-lowrie-trade.html" target="_blank">the rumors</a> involving <strong>Zach Lee</strong>, <strong>Garrett Gould</strong>, <strong>Jed Lowrie</strong>, and <strong>Carlos Lee</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>9:02pm: The Dodgers are talking to the Astros about a trade that would send Jed Lowrie to the Dodgers with minor-leaguers Zach Lee and Garrett Gould headed to Houston, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).  One source place the odds of the deal taking place at about 50-50 right now, Olney tweets.</p></blockquote>
<p>I understood the interest in Lowrie, as <strong>Dee Gordon</strong> has been a black hole, both offensively and defensively, but Carlos is a marginal upgrade at best, if he even is one.</p>
<blockquote><p>10:11pm: The Dodgers asked about Lowrie, but he&#8217;s now not in the current talks, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.  A source says that there&#8217;s a 50-50 shot that Carlos Lee accepts a deal to Los Angeles for pitching prospects.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is where I got negative. With Lowrie out of the picture, it&#8217;s Carlos for &#8220;pitching prospects&#8221;, plural.</p>
<blockquote><p>9:57pm: Dodgers‬&#8217; talks with ‪Astros‬ involve Carlos Lee, not Jed Lowrie, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).  Lee would need to a approve deal and has the right to block a deal to the Dodgers.</p></blockquote>
<p>As I was expressing on Twitter, I&#8217;m not thrilled with the idea of trading prospects for Carlos Lee. A solid segment of fans disagreed though, as they were generally enamored with acquiring an upgrade over <strong>James Loney</strong>. I&#8217;m just not sure Carlos Lee is the guy they&#8217;re looking for.</p>
<p>Carlos Lee&#8217;s current slash line is .290/.342/.412/.754, which is in line with his recent production, and he projects to hit .276/.328/.434/.762 the rest of the way. Additionally, consider that he&#8217;s a terrible defender in the outfield and a fringe to poor defender at first base.</p>
<p>James Loney&#8217;s current line is .236/.303/.323/.626, which is partially the result of lower than normal BABIP. He projects to hit .266/.327/.387/.714 the rest of the way. Plus, he plays above-average to plus defense at first.</p>
<p>Now 50 points difference in OPS is nothing to scoff at, but factor in the defense and then consider that Loney has a .802 OPS career against righties (.669 against lefties) and <strong>Juan Rivera</strong> has a .821 career OPS against lefties (.747 against righties). Now the gap is basically non-existent.</p>
<p>You know how to tell that this trade is an iffy upgrade? When it&#8217;s even arguable as to whether a potential acquisition is an improvement over James Loney and Juan Rivera.</p>
<p>Then there&#8217;s the matter of the prospects involved, but I already gave my thoughts on that through Twitter.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>My problem isn&#8217;t the prospects involved as much as it is getting players who are decent in return, which Ned has trouble doing.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChadMoriyama/status/218935407444893696" data-datetime="2012-06-30T05:14:03+00:00">June 30, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Garrett Gould most likely busts anyway, as do most prospects, but surrendering them randomly for crap is pointless.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChadMoriyama/status/218939722918133760" data-datetime="2012-06-30T05:31:12+00:00">June 30, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>The discussion is about the logic behind giving up assets at random because &#8220;it&#8217;s an upgrade now&#8221;.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChadMoriyama/status/218941385255026688" data-datetime="2012-06-30T05:37:48+00:00">June 30, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s not so much about the prospects, it&#8217;s about giving away legitimate assets for questionable upgrades.</p>
<p>Some people are happy to give away prospects for immediate upgrades, no matter how small, but why give away prospects for basically no reason? Throwing shit against the wall may work in small sample sizes, but do it enough and you&#8217;ll get burned more often than not.</p>
<p>The Dodgers under Colletti have made <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/around-the-web-are-dodgers-fans-right-to-worry-about-ned-colletti-at-the-deadline/" target="_blank">a habit of surrendering solid assets for marginal upgrades</a>, so it&#8217;s a legitimate concern for fans, and history indicates we have every right to be.</p>
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