Don Mattingly has named Kenley Jansen closer following Brandon League being Brandon League and imploding in a save situation yet again.

When asked how he would get the ball to Jansen, Donnie Baseball said something you’d prefer your manager to not say publicly:

With Jansen closing, how will Dodgers get the ball to the 9th inning? Mattingly: “That’s a great question.”

Jansen is obviously the better pitcher, but what’s most important is not simply removing League from “save situations”, as a game could need saving in the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning.

What Don needs to do is not put League in high leverage situations, at least in the interim, wherever and whenever they present themselves.

—–

Scott Van Slyke hit the 15-day DL with shoulder bursitis. Alex Castellanos was recalled to take his place.

Van Slyke originally injured himself on May 25th trying to make a diving grab. He’s the 15th different Dodger to land on the disabled list in 2013, and many of those fifteen have made multiple trips.

—–

Ted Lilly hit the DL yet again, and Matt Magill was recalled yet again to take his place in the rotation.

The Dodgers on Sunday made official what was reported on Saturday, that Ted Lilly was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a neck sprain and Matt Magill was recalled from Triple-A Albuquerque to start the series finale against the Braves at Dodger Stadium.

Magill was then sent back to AAA as Justin Sellers was called up.

Sellers was then sent down, with Chris Withrow being recalled from AAA.

Hopefully Withrow finds success quickly in the bigs, as it would give Mattingly a late-inning option other than League and not named Jansen or Paco Rodriguez.

—–

Two minor-league promotions, as Duke Von Schamann heads from High-A to AA Chattanooga, and Rob Rasmussen gets the call to AAA.

Duke might have the greatest name ever.

—–

Two minor-leaguers were released, with Alfredo Amezaga being the only noteworthy one of the pair.

Released: RHP Travis Jones, SS Alfredo Amezaga

For better or worse, he was never a real threat to make the club at any point.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke and find him contributing at Yahoo! Sports.

The Dodgers handed Brandon League a three-year contract and the closer’s role heading into the 2013 season, but his predictable fall from temporary grace in the role has led to continued questions about his viability as the closer, especially with Kenley Jansen waiting in the wings.

It’s easy to see why questions are being asked, as any comparison between the two relievers’ resumes is comical, and it doesn’t matter if we’re talking about just 2013 or their entire careers.

By now, due to what you see in the chart above, I think most of the fan base has concluded that Kenley deserves the closer’s spot over League. However, that assumes that the closer’s spot is the place where the team should be putting their best reliever.

Don Mattingly doesn’t think that’s correct, and I’m inclined to agree.

Don Mattingly has adjusted his late-inning bullpen use recently by deploying Kenley Jansen to face the hitters posing the greatest threat, no matter the inning.

“I don’t like a committee of guys, that’s always unsettling, like every day is a tryout, and that’s not the environment I want for my pitchers,” said Mattingly. “I want them to know I’m confident in them and trust them. It’s not like you give up a run and you’re out.

“But the way it’s been going is the best way to do it. Kenley gets the tougher part of the order, and there’s a chance of anybody in the ninth. We don’t have Mariano [Rivera]. You see teams changing all the time in the last inning or two.”

For the moment, forget about statistics or the fact that you hate Mattingly or whatever else. Logically, what he’s saying makes absolute sense: Use your best reliever in the most important situations in the game against their best hitters.

Basically, Mattingly’s plan is to use Kenley as an ace reliever of old, a move which is only bolstered by the fact that Kenley has a history of being able to go multiple innings. Another reason it works is because the Dodger bullpen has been hit by injuries and ineffectiveness like the rest of the team, so despite League’s struggles, he’s still projected to get late-inning outs even if he’s removed as closer. And since blowing a lead in the eighth sucks just as much as in the ninth (or more since the closer doesn’t even get used then), simply stripping League of the overhyped title accomplishes little to solve the root problem.

Yes, League and Ronald Belisario and friends have to get it together somewhat for this to work, but that was always true to begin with. If they continue to tank, the bullpen fails miserably anyway, with or without this strategy, as Kenley is only one man. As such, it’s hard to see the downside to this move besides the risk for overwork (a temptation, regardless).

Whether you want to admit it or not, if Mattingly actually uses Kenley like he says, it’s quite the progressive move for a manager whose game decisions are generally regressive. I’ve been calling for Dodgers managers to use their best relievers in the most important situations forever now, and if Donnie sticks to what he’s saying, there may finally be progress on that front, even if it is partially out of desperation.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Outs Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – 46.8%

The Dodgers were clinging onto an 8-7 lead with one down in the bottom of the ninth and runners on first and third. At this point, you’d almost be happy with a tied game.

One Jason Kubel swing later and it was a win instead.

2. Javy Guerra – 31.6%

Tied at 4-4 in the top of the ninth inning, the Padres got runners on first and second with nobody out. Not looking good for the Dodgers.

But then the impossible happened and … well … you can see it for yourself.

3. Ronald Belisario – 27.5%

Tied at two in the bottom of the eighth inning and facing a bases loaded jam with one out, Ronald Belisario gets out of it thanks to what basically amounts to luck.

Matt Holliday smashed a liner, but it was right at Mark Ellis, who doubled up the runner at second.

4. Kenley Jansen – 24.7%

With runners on second and third in the top of the ninth and one down, the Dodgers are clinging to a 6-5 lead when Kenley Jansen induces a harmless infield pop-up.

5. Brandon League – 20.0%

Tied at three with one down in the bottom of the tenth and a runner on third, Brandon League keeps him there by inducing a strikeout.

—–

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody that the most clutch plays of the season all went to relievers.

That said, I am shocked that Javy Guerra‘s play wasn’t tops on this list, since it’s almost never that you induce three outs on one pitch.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Brandon League – 0.70
2. Josh Lindblom – 0.47
3. Nate Eovaldi – 0.34
4. Shawn Tolleson – 0.34
5. Stephen Fife – 0.32

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

So … uh … this is TERRIBLE.

.395 is like 40 points higher than Mike Trout in 2012 for fucks sake.

H-h-how?

—–

Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Matt Guerrier – .320 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Shawn Tolleson – .273
Javy Guerra – .256
Scott Elbert – .237
Ronald Belisario – .082

Ugh.

Sinker

Shawn Tolleson – .395 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Mike MacDougal – .342
Brandon League – .280
Todd Coffey – .263
Randy Choate – .262
Jamey Wright – .258
Ronald Belisario – .225

No … just no.

Cutter

Jamey Wright – .258 TAv

Scott Elbert – .242
Javy Guerra – .208
Kenley Jansen – .187
Matt Guerrier – .139

Curve

Javy Guerra – .271 TAv

Jamey Wright – .171

Finishing last out of two isn’t bad, but giving up a .271 on a curve as a reliever is.

Slider

Kenley Jansen – .236 TAv

Jamey Wright – .215
Todd Coffey – .214
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Brandon League – .147
Ronald Belisario – .121
Randy Choate – .058

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

Sinker

Ronald Belisario – .225 TAv

Jamey Wright – .258
Randy Choate – .262
Todd Coffey – .263
Brandon League – .280
Mike MacDougal – .342
Shawn Tolleson – .395

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Curve

Jamey Wright – .171 TAv

Javy Guerra – .271

Slider

Randy Choate – .058 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Ronald Belisario – .121
Brandon League – .147
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Todd Coffey – .214
Jamey Wright – .215
Kenley Jansen – .236

Unfair to lefties, really.

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

When he has got his command working, it’s a filthy, filthy pitch.

Zack Greinke news is dribbling in slowly, especially given that talks were expected to escalate quickly. The latest speculation is that the Dodgers and Rangers are out ahead, according to Bill Shaikin.

The Dodgers and Rangers appear to be the favorites for Greinke, with the Angels as the dark horse, tweets Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

So apparently the Angels are still in the mix, which goes counter to a previous report. Perhaps the Nationals are now out of it after acquiring Dan Haren.

With that said though, if Josh Hamilton and the Rangers works out, it bodes well for the Dodgers chances at Greinke.

Sources: #Rangers, Hamilton making progress. Deal, if reached, likely would be 4 yrs. But still possible another team could beat TEX offer.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 4, 2012

—–

Remember when the Dodgers were hot and heavy with Anibal Sanchez? Well, that’s apparently still a thing, as they’re in the mix along with five other teams.

The Mystery Team has finally showed up in Nashville! Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that, in addition to the Tigers, Angels, Royals, Dodgers, and Red Sox, a mystery team is in the mix for Sanchez.

Mystery Team is ETERNALLY the dark horse.

I doubt the Dodgers interest in him is serious at this point, as they are occupied currently with Greinke and James Shields.

—–

Jim Bowden says the Dodgers are in on Rafael Soriano.

Don’t eliminate the Dodgers as a possible landing spot for Rafael Soriano, despite their multiyear commitment to Brandon League.

Since he opted out of a $14 million option, he’s obviously going to want multiple years and more money than that to sign.

The problem? He hasn’t been all that good over the past two seasons, posting a 3.97 FIP in 2011 and a 3.32 FIP in 2012. He’s going to want to be paid like Brandon League but he hasn’t even been as good as that in the last two seasons.

Why this would be a thing I have no idea.

—–

Dodgers are looking at reliever Mark Lowe, according to Jon Paul Morosi.

The market for setup relievers is starting to take shape, and free agent Mark Lowe is drawing interest from a number of teams.

The Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Angels and Rays are among the clubs that have checked in on the right-hander, major-league sources told FOXSports.com. Of that group, Milwaukee’s need for bullpen help is particularly acute.

4.16 FIP in 2011, 4.32 FIP in 2012, 4.10 FIP career.

Depending on who he would replace in the pen, there’s a solid argument that signing him would be a downgrade.

—–

#dodgers are looking around a bit for a SS or 3B to potentially pair with hanley. seeming M.O.: all-star at all positions

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 4, 2012

Was waiting for this, actually.

If they actually have no restrictions, I’m not sure why they would go into next year satisfied with Hanley Ramirez at short and Luis Cruz at third.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

—–

Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

—–

I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Baseball America: Dodgers have hired Patrick Guerrero as their Latin American Coordinator.

Guerrero, who lives in the Dominican Republic, will run the organization’s scouting throughout Latin America. The Mariners had fired Guerrero as their Latin American coordinator earlier this month at the same time they announced that Bob Engle, their vice president of international scouting, had decided to leave the organization. Seattle’s decision to fire Guerrero, according to Baseball America’s sources, was made above Engle, an unusual move for a Latin American scout. Both Guerrero and Engle had been with the Mariners since 2000.

Baseball America: Bob Engle has been added to the Dodgers staff as the Vice President Of International Scouting.

The Dodgers have made more changes to their international scouting department, most notably with today’s hiring of Bob Engle as their vice president of international scouting.

Bob Elliot reported last night on Twitter that the Dodgers were going to hire Engle, whose contract with the Mariners as their vice president of international scouting ended yesterday.

Word in the industry is that there could be more major changes coming to the team’s front office, but the team has already confirmed that Engle will bring aboard several of his former lieutenants with the Mariners to work for the Dodgers.

He’ll bring on scouts that have worked with him with the Mariners.

Three other scouts who had worked for Engle in Seattle will join his staff with the Dodgers. Pat Kelly is coming in as the team’s Pacific Rim coordinator after holding the same title in Seattle. Jamie Storvick, who resides in Taiwan, will also be heavily involved in the team’s Pacific Rim work. Gene Grimaldi will help lead the team’s efforts in Europe. The Dodgers are also bringing in Mike Tosar, who had been out of baseball but also previously worked with Engle in Seattle, as a special assignment scout.

Dodgers continue to add quality staff, which can only be seen as a positive.

—–

MLB.com: Todd Coffey, Juan Rivera, and Matt Treanor had their options declined by the team.

The Dodgers declined the 2013 contract options for pitcher Todd Coffey, outfielder Juan Rivera and catcher Matt Treanor on Monday.

Coffey, who missed the second half of the season after undergoing his second Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, was bought out of a $2.5 million salary for $300,000.

Rivera, who shuttled between left field and first base until the trades for Shane Victorino and Adrian Gonzalez, was bought out of a $4 million salary for $500,000.

Treanor, who saw only sporadic action backing up A.J. Ellis, was bought out of a $950,000 salary for $150,000.

No shockers here. We’re all just glad they’re gone, I figure.

Los Angeles Times: Chad Billingsley seems to be on track to pitch in 2013.

“It looks like he’s going to be ready for the 2013 season,” said Dave Stewart, Billingsley’s agent.

Billingsley touched 94 mph with his fastball and threw an assortment of pitches, including his four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball and changeup. Billingsley threw 35 to 40 pitches.

One still has to wonder how long this will last though. I haven’t heard of too many success stories in regards to rehabbing torn elbow ligaments.

MLB.com: Kenley Jansen is on the road to recovery after heart surgery.

“I feel so much better now than I did at the end of the season,” said Jansen, who has recovered enough from last week’s heart surgery to take part in a Halloween candy giveaway on Monday at the Home Depot Center soccer stadium.

“I was dragging all day long at the end,” he said. “I can tell I’ve got so much more energy. Now I look at this soccer field and just want to get out there and start playing. I’m feeling so good.”

Jansen underwent a successful three-hour ablation surgery performed by Dr. Koonwalee Nademanee at White Memorial Hospital on Oct. 23. During the procedure, the abnormal tissue in his heart was identified and then cauterized to stop the erratic electrical signals sent from the area.

Jansen said his heart went into an irregular beat when the surgery started, helping doctors quickly pinpoint the areas needing attention. He said he still has some stiffness in his groin area, where two small incisions were made, but otherwise feels better than he had.

“It wasn’t scary at all,” said the 25-year-old. “I just wanted to get it over with. I feel it’s a relief and it will be good for me for the rest of my life. I just wanted to get it done, and I know this doctor is one of the great experts and I have a lot of confidence in him.”

Baseball aside, I just hope this ends his heart issues once and for all.

—–

FanGraphs: Jeff Sullivan thinks that Brandon League‘s contract is an example of inefficiency by the team.

Yet I might just be skipping around the major point. Brandon League has closer-type stuff, and the Dodgers want League to close, but the Dodgers already had an effective closer in Kenley Jansen. Granted, Jansen just underwent heart surgery, but his outlook is very good and he intends to be at full strength come spring training. Last year Jansen had 99 strikeouts in 65 appearances. He’s dominant when he’s pitching, and on top of that, he’s cheap. So the Dodgers aren’t paying League to fill a gaping void. That makes this move seem more unnecessary.

And League has supposedly figured it out before, only to lose it again within weeks or months. The fact that he had to re-discover the feel for his splitter says that, previously, he has lost the feel for his splitter after having had it. League, at his absolute best, is a very good reliever worth millions of dollars, but he’s seldom at his absolute best and he’s hardly been the model of consistency. The Dodgers didn’t just make a godawful move. They made a move that’s easier to criticize than defend. Individual inefficiencies aren’t a big deal, but individual inefficiencies do add up, and the Dodgers seem to be adding them up.

Baseball Prospectus: R.J. Anderson doesn’t think history will view the deal favorably.

Handing out a three-year deal to any non-elite reliever is asking for a lousy return on investment—ditto the $7.5 million average annual value. Why then are the Dodgers marching into the land of poor ROI? It might be that Colletti suspects the rest of the league, flush with cash, will hit the market with similar ferocity; causing an apparent overpay to blend in with the norm in the coming weeks. The chicken-or-the-egg scenario here is whether Colletti’s attempt to beat the market inadvertently set the market, but that’s a topic for another day. In a market with so many right-handed relief options available, it seems fair to ask if the endowment effect fooled the Dodgers into liking League more than they should.

In all likelihood, no one, save League and his agency, will stamp this move with a gold star in three years. You can make sense of it from the Dodgers’ point of view if you want to, however.

Sounds familiar, so I guess I’m not the only one thinking along those lines.

—–

FanGraphs: Does throwing a lot of strikes indicate a pitcher who is at less risk for injury? A case study by Jeff Zimmerman seems to suggest that.

Brandon League has signed a three-year, $22.5 million deal with the Dodgers, according to MLB.com and … everybody.

The Dodgers re-signed reliever Brandon League to a three-year contract for $22.5 million Tuesday, and general manager Ned Colletti said the right-hander will be the closer.

MLB Trade Rumors provides further information on the option.

10:24pm: The 2016 vesting option can escalate from $7.5MM to $9MM based on games finished, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). League can also earn an additional $500K per year based on games finished.

8:27pm: League’s option for 2016 is worth $7.5MM and will vest if he finishes 55 games in 2015, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Not that worried about the option because I doubt it’s going to be a factor given the volatility of the position. Even if it does come into play, that means his contract to that point has been a rousing success, so I don’t see it as an issue.

—–

As some of you know, I wrote about this potential deal the other day, and I still don’t feel much different.

League is a career 3.60 ERA and 3.81 FIP reliever, while the average reliever put up a 3.67 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 2012. Both his career strikeout and walk rates aren’t anything to write home about, clocking in a 6.71 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. So there’s immediate concern there that he’s basically a solid, average reliever.

The upside is that he’s posted a 2.78 FIP in 2011 and a 3.19 FIP in 2012, but he has proven to be anything but consistent over his career, and his mechanics fade in and out seemingly at random, so choosing him as the guy to invest multiple years in seems like an iffy plan at best.

Factor in the recent history regarding relievers on multi-year deals, and it looks downright frightening.

Since 2009, when he became a full-time reliever, he has posted WAR totals of 0.7, 0.3, 1.1, and 1.0. So value-wise, the team is basically paying him like he’s about to have career years in all of 2013, 2014, and 2015.

Additionally, he struggles against lefties (.765 OPS LHB/.590 OPS RHB), which Jose Valverde showed could be a disaster in the making. It’s problematic if League is deployed as the closer, which Ned Colletti apparently plans to do, and Don Mattingly probably won’t be able to work around the platoon split because he isn’t exactly known as a keen bullpen strategist.

Hell, throw the statistics out of the window if you want. This is a guy who lost his job as a closer with the Mariners LAST YEAR, and now he’s being signed to hold onto the job for three years in the face of multiple pitchers who are already better than him.

And yeah, I’ve heard about the gigantic payroll and how overpaying him doesn’t matter and yadda yadda yadda. I’ll address those notions in a separate post, but for now I’ll just say that it’s hard for me to simply wish away the specifics of this contract in a bout of cognitive dissonance because I want to believe in the fairy tale that payroll efficiency doesn’t matter.

Look, he’ll probably be a fine reliever, just like Jamey Wright was in 2012 (seriously, I was wrong about him, compare the two in 2012), but unless something drastic changes in 2013, he’s not worth the money he’ll be getting, and I just continue to wonder when that trend catches up with the team.

I didn’t like the Brandon League trade at the time it was executed, primarily because the effect that a reliever can have in such a short time period is both volatile and minimal. That dislike for the deal grew to mockery when he got off to a horrid start, but after the Dodgers said they fixed his mechanics (and I found that they actually did), he reeled off an undoubtedly impressive stretch of pitching.

While that was a wonderful way to finish the season for him, perhaps it wasn’t worth it if the rumor about Ned Colletti being in talks with League’s agent regarding a three-year deal rings true.

The Dodgers are talking to League’s representatives about a three-year contract, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

Yikes.

League is a career 3.60 ERA and 3.81 FIP reliever, while the average reliever put up a 3.67 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 2012. Both his career strikeout and walk rates aren’t anything to write home about, clocking in a 6.71 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. So there’s immediate concern there that he’s basically a solid, average reliever.

The upside is that he’s posted a 2.78 FIP in 2011 and a 3.19 FIP in 2012, but he has proven to be anything but consistent over his career, and his mechanics fade in and out seemingly at random, so choosing him as the guy to invest multiple years in seems like an iffy plan at best.

Factor in the recent history regarding relievers on multi-year deals, and it looks downright frightening.

Unfortunately for the teams with the open wallets, recent history suggests that giving contracts of 3+ years to a relief pitcher is generally a terrible idea. Here’s a list of free agent relievers who have received deals for three or more years since over the last four off-seasons.

Danys Baez (2007-2009), 3 years, $19 million: -0.4 WAR
Justin Speier (2007-2010), 4 years, $18 million: -0.2 WAR
Jamie Walker (2007-2009), 3 years, $12 million: -0.5 WAR
Scott Schoeneweis (2007-2009), 3 years, $11 million: -1.5 WAR
Chad Bradford (2007-2009), 3 years, $11 million: +2.0 WAR
Francisco Cordero (2008-2011), 4 years, $46 million: +2.8 WAR
Mariano Rivera (2008-2010), 3 years, $45 million: +7.8 WAR
Scott Linebrink (2008-2011), 4 years, $18 million: +0.5 WAR
David Riske (2008-2010), 3 years, $13 million: -0.6 WAR
Francisco Rodriguez (2009-2011), 3 years, $36 million: +1.7 WAR
Damaso Marte (2009-2011), 3 years, $12 million: -0.2 WAR
Brandon Lyon (2010-2012), 3 years, $15 million: +1.0 WAR

Things haven’t got significantly better for relievers in recent times either.

25 relievers signed deals with an average annual value greater than $1 million. Five of them signed multi-year deals. The results were… mixed. First, the multi-year deals:

Jonathan Papelbon, PHI (4/$50M): 2.44 ERA, 70 IP, 38 SV
Heath Bell, MIA (3/$27M): 5.09 ERA, 63.2 IP, 19 SV
Joe Nathan, TEX (2/$14.5M): 2.80 ERA, 64.1 IP, 37 SV
Frank Francisco, NYM (2/$12M): 5.53 ERA, 42.1 IP, 23 SV
Javier Lopez, SFG (2/$8.5M): 2.50 ERA, 36 IP, 7 SV

Three were quite good, two were very bad, and one did not even play in the Majors. In total, the six relievers combined to earn in $120.4 million over 15 total years, an average annual value exceeding $8 million. Of course, that is a bit top-heavy towards Papelbon, but a 50 percent success rate is less than impressive.

Not enough? Ned Colletti can look at his own experience.

He has actually had a lot of success building piecemeal bullpens, primarily from the farm system, but also by taking a few fliers on veterans for one year or on a minor-league contract. The only reliever he has EVER signed to a multi-year deal is Matt Guerrier, who has thus far contributed a grand total of ~0.0 WAR and will probably be a middle reliever if he’s lucky in 2013.

MLB Trade Rumors noticed last off-season that GMs around baseball were catching the hint on giving multi-year deals to relievers, no matter how good they are.

Hopefully the Dodgers follow suit, because recent history is certainly not on their side.

Brandon League may well have found the treatment for what has ailed him with the help of the Dodgers coaching staff, as there has been a stark change in his mechanics in the month or so since he has arrived.

Acquired in a trade with the Mariners, League’s career with the Dodgers got off to a putrid start, as his ERA stood at 16.88 in his first five appearances with the team.

At that point, on August 11th, it was revealed by the team that League had a mechanical issue that needed to be fixed.

The Dodgers feel, and League said he agrees, that his problems are mechanical. League was conspicuously absent from the late innings of Friday night’s close win, and manager Don Mattingly said he wants League’s mechanics smoothed out before he throws him back into that kind of fire.

“He has a tendency to pull hard to the side and his arm drags behind him,” said bullpen coach Ken Howell. “We’re trying to get him to stay back on his right leg longer, stride the front leg out farther, and he’ll stay in line with the target. It should be an easy fix.”

League said he “absolutely agrees” that he has a tendency to pull off as he throws.

“It’s been a battle all year,” he said. “I had keys in Seattle, and we’re using different keys here. I tend to get my front leg moving too fast and that causes my problems.”

Since then, in his next 10 appearances, he has performed demonstratively better, holding a 0.79 ERA over that time span.

Despite the improvement, my inclination was to chalk it up to simple regression, but I was reminded on Twitter of the mechanical fix and decided to see if there was anything to it.

@chadmoriyama Maybe Honey really did fix him

— T.F. (@EephusBlue) September 4, 2012

Sure enough, there was a stark difference in his mechanics, as I’ll show here in pictures from an August 5th delivery (top) and an August 31st delivery (bottom).

In the before picture, we can see that he’s upright, whereas he’s crouched in the after picture. A product of that is extra bend in his back leg in the August 31st appearance, which helps to keep his weight back.

When he doesn’t get compact (after), he has a tendency to get a bit loose and quick with his mechanics, leading to arm slot and release point issues.

This is just to reinforce the difference in weight distribution and body posture between August 5th and August 31st.

It’s a bit difficult to see the difference I want to point out here, but if we look closely, we can see he’s pulling with his left shoulder a lot harder in the before picture than the after picture.

A different pitch illustrates this difference perfectly.

With these mechanics, we can see how he’s letting his front shoulder dictate everything, which usually leads to the elbow dropping and missing down and/or in to a right-handed batter.

League has always been a rotation dominant pitcher, so it’s especially important that he drives off his back foot to keep everything going towards the plate and force hip separation. If not, he ends up compensating by pulling with his lead shoulder to make up for the lack of drive, thus the slot and release get altered.

A consequence of pulling with the lead shoulder is that his body and head follows that shoulder and dips with it.

Besides what’s illustrated in the pictures, League’s tempo is now two to three tenths slower than it was previously.

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Overall, Rick Honeycutt and Ken Howell deserve credit for recognizing the problem and diagnosing the fixes correctly. Similarly, Brandon League deserves credit for being open to coaching and implementing the adjustments quickly.

With that said, this obviously doesn’t guarantee anything going forward. With only a month left in the season, anything could happen. However, in my opinion, there’s been a clear mechanical correction and the numbers match that conclusion. As such, fans should expect the control disaster he was at the start of his Dodgers stint to be gone and that he should now resemble the 2011-2012 League the rest of the way (~3.25 ERA).

So Rubby De La Rosa is back with the Dodgers a little over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he certainly deserves every bit of the promotion. In the minors, he allowed 0 runs in 12 innings while striking out 12 and walking 3. More importantly, he was sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper register when needed.

The part I find puzzling though is that the team optioned Javy Guerra to make room for him. I realize that it was either him or Shawn Tolleson, because they were the two that had options and rosters expand in 10 days, but I still find the logic confusing.

With the rest of the bullpen (sans Kenley Jansen) struggling of late, Guerra has put up 11.1 innings of scoreless relief with 13 strikeouts in his last nine appearances. The last time he allowed a run was July 26th. Similarly, Tolleson hasn’t allowed a run since July 22nd.

The predictable defense for demoting either of them is “well they have options”. Which is fine, but if we’re going with the philosophy that the Shane Victorino/Joe Blanton/Brandon League trades were worth it even if they only total a half win improvement because “it’s a dead heat”, then how logical is it to demote your hottest relievers in a bullpen that’s currently struggling to stay afloat?

Some of you know that I’ve followed and have been a fan of Rubby since he showed velocity in the complex leagues as a prospect, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to be lights out either. Point being, if you’re going to justify trading away assets for the most marginal of gains in the context of 2012, then that same attitude should apply to these roster moves as well, especially when there’s considerable dead weight on the roster that nobody would miss.

In a surprising move late yesterday, the Dodgers traded prospects Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom to the Mariners for Brandon League.

League, 29, is owed approximately $1.8MM for the rest of the season before becoming a free agent this winter. He’s pitched to a 3.63 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 44 2/3 innings this year, plus his usual sky-high ground ball rate is down to just 46.9%. The Dodgers have lost Matt Guerrier and Todd Coffey to injury this season, so League will add some late-inning depth.

Landry, 22, is hitting .328/.358/.559 with eight homers and 15 triples in 376 plate appearances for Los Angeles’ High Class-A affiliate this season while spending most of his time in center field. Bawcom, a 23-year-old right-hander, owns a 2.03 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 48 2/3 relief innings split between Single-A and Double-A this year. Neither player ranked among the team’s top 30 prospects in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook before the season.

Leon Landry wasn’t in my Prospect Rankings for 2012, but he was headed for a top 20 spot in 2013 prior to this deal happening. The leap comes as a result of his .328/.358/.559/.917 line at high-A and his defensive ability. His upside is probably as a fringy regular due to his poor plate discipline and lack of offensive tools, and I think he fits more as a reserve outfielder type in the majors.

Logan Bawcom wasn’t in my Prospect Rankings for 2012 either, but he too was headed there in 2013. He posted a 0.64 ERA with a 1.06 FIP in 14 innings at high-A, then followed that by posting a 2.60 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 34.2 innings at AA. He has command issues from time to time but has strikeout stuff that should play at advanced levels. Bawcom has a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s and a good sharp slider. He has the upside of a 7th inning guy and a floor that likely still has him as a bullpen contributor, both of which made him one of the arms I was talking about when I referred to relief arms as a system strength.

Brandon League comes to the Dodgers with a 3.63 ERA/3.43 FIP/4.40 xFIP/4.43 SIERA in 2012. After a career year in 2011, he has basically regressed to his career norms (3.69/3.88/3.64/3.34). He’s not without red flags though, as his 14.0 K% is his lowest since 2007 and his BB% is his highest since 2008. Essentially, he’s an above average bullpen guy who was once used as a closer.

—–

On its face, one has to wonder what the point of this trade was. After all, how much of an upgrade is he over Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Josh Lindblom, and company? Hell, Jamey Wright is having an equally quality year at the moment and it already pains me when he enters the game.

What I have to assume is that he was acquired because the Dodgers are on the verge of trading a reliever like Lindblom or Guerra in a deal for a pitcher/first baseman/outfielder. If not, while nothing will quite top the Octavio Dotel deal, this will likely go down as another complete waste of assets. Hell, even if a trade involving a reliever does occur, it’s still a mediocre deal to me. Quality starters rarely make much of a marginal value impact after the deadline, much less average relievers.

For me to even get to that point of acknowledging it as mediocre though, a reliever would have to be traded out of the bullpen for help elsewhere. Here’s hoping it’s for something worthwhile.

Guess you can’t stop Ned Colletti, you can only hope to contain him.