Dylan Hernandez reports the Dodgers have acquired Skip Schumaker from the Cardinals, sending minor-league shortstop Jake Lemmerman the other way. Chad has more on the deal here.

My reaction: meh.

—–

The Dodgers have designated Scott Van Slyke for assignment in order to make room on the 40-man roster for Schumaker. Van Slyke was the Dodgers’ 2011 Minor League Player Of The Year.

Van Slyke is unlikely to clear waivers, so there’s a good chance he gets traded in a minor deal.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. has received an invitation to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, as he’s still under contract for 2013 but is not on the 40-man roster.

—–

The Red Sox will send $11.7 million dollars westward to the Dodgers as part of the mega-deal centered around Adrian Gonzalez. The payments will come in three equal installments of $3.9 million, to be made in 2013, 2014, and 2015, and they will conclude the deal.

—–

Zack Greinke‘s contract with the Dodgers is $147 million guaranteed, but it could increase to $158 million with incentives.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

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Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Adrian Gonzalez

When the Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez from the Boston Red Sox, I saw a plethora of Dodger fans begin to assert wild and crazy things. Not only were the Dodgers guaranteed of making the playoffs, but they were a lock to make the World Series on the back of a hero who was absolutely the right acquisition because of the dubious logic of him fitting in with the community and what not.

With all of the variables in baseball, I found these claims to be ridiculous. Putting aside the unforeseen injuries to Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, and Kenley Jansen, Gonzalez’s acquisition did not portend to an immediate success because of the small sample size of the remaining season and because it wasn’t really the same A-Gon of pre-2012.

No, this A-Gon was potentially still dealing with ramifications from shoulder and back injuries, had seen his power sapped, and had seemingly forgotten how to draw a walk (10.6% career, 10.3% in 2011, 6.1% in 2012). While an obvious upgrade over James Loney‘s corpse, success was no sure thing, as he was in the midst of his worst professional season since becoming a full-time starter. What would end up disappointing people in 2012 was two-fold: far too high expectations and a stretch in which Gonzalez was atrocious at the plate, to the tune of a .235/.292/.346/.638 line over a 20-game span.

Following an MVP-caliber 2011 in which he hit .338/.410/.548/.958 with a .407 wOBA, .210 ISO, 154 wRC+, and 75 extra-base hits, A-Gon’s slash line fell to .299/.344/.463/.807 with a .346 wOBA, .164 ISO, 115 wRC+, and 66 extra-base hits. Again, those numbers still trump anything his predecessor in Blue could dream of, and his numbers after the trade still stand above Loney’s, but will they be enough in the long-run for such a high-priced player? It’s yet to be seen.

On the positive side, Gonzalez was still a very productive player, no doubt, saving ~15.5 runs with his excellent glove and posting a WAR of ~3.4. Also, Adrian did finish strong, mashing to the tune of a .330/.365/.495/.860 line. As he won’t even turn 31 until May, I expect Gonzalez to rebound and be better with the lumber, ending up closer to a ~4 WAR player, at least for a season or two.

James Loney

Prior to his trade to Red Sox Nation, Loney was having yet another putrid season, hitting .254/.302/.344/.646 with a .278 wOBA and .090 ISO. Even his most ardent fans were less boisterous about how the #RBIMachine would bust out at any moment, and though the financial ramifications of the Boston deal worry me, and the deal as a whole doesn’t thrill me, I was very pleased to see the Sox take him away.

Loney leaves Los Angeles as a failed prospect who could never hit enough to warrant his job at a premium offensive position. The only real role in baseball that he has left is as a late-inning defensive replacement, as he saved ~3.3 runs in 2012 prior to his move east.

Juan Rivera

Rivera was the right-handed half of the #Fail platoon Don Mattingly trotted out at first prior to Gonzalez’s arrival. He started 39 games and appeared in 54 at first, hitting just .226/.268/.404/.672 while being a liability on the basepaths (-1.4 BsR) and with a first baseman’s glove (-17.6 UZR/150 in over 300 innings). He managed to land in that rarefied air of posting a negative fWAR, clocking in at -0.8 for the year.

How he could possibly receive anything other than a minor-league invitation to Spring Training in 2013 from any team is beyond me, but if anyone can make that theoretical minor-league deal into a guaranteed major-league one, it would be Uncle Ned.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The big news out of Japan today is that the Nippon Ham Fighters have decided to select Shohei Otani with their first-round pick in tomorrow’s NPB Draft, according to Sanspo.

Ever since I tweeted out that information, I’ve been getting a bunch of questions, so I thought I should make a post dedicated to answering them as best I could.

Does the NPB Draft work like the MLB Draft?

No.

The first round of the NPB Draft is a lottery system, where every team submits who they want to take. If you’re the only team that selects a player, then you are awarded his rights. However, if multiple teams select the same player, then there’s a random draw for that player’s services. The system repeats until every team has a player.

So it would be like if all 30 MLB teams decided they wanted Bryce Harper in the first round, then the way it’s determined who gets him is based on the luck of the draw. Literally.

After the first round, it’s a standard snake-format draft.

Why is it surprising that the Nippon Ham Fighters want to draft him?

It’s surprising because he already announced his intention to go overseas. An unsigned pick wouldn’t be a gigantic deal in America due to our compensation system (Mark Appel/Pirates), but in Japan it is because if you don’t sign your pick then the pick is gone forever.

To make matters worse, Nippon Ham already lost their first-round pick from last year, Tomoyuki Sugano, as he refused to sign due to his desire to play under his uncle with the Yomiuri Giants.

Needless to say, Nippon Ham fans aren’t very happy about the risk associated with this, at least judging by a small sample of reactions I found on Twitter.

So why does this complicate things for the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Rangers, the three main teams he’s rumored to be considering?

Unless the MLB and the teams involved really want a mess on their hands, they will not be able to interfere with the exclusive rights granted to the NPB team that drafts Otani until the period of negotiation ends on March 31st. As such, he’ll miss spring ball for 2013 if he’s taken.

So hypothetically speaking, that drags the saga out but it’s just an inconvenience … right? Well, in my opinion, the real risk with him being drafted is that he could be tempted to stay in Japan given time to talk it through with the team that selects him. He is, after all, only a teenager, and there are a lot of reasons besides baseball to want to stay in Japan.

Social and cultural reasons aside, Sponichi makes the case that he would be guaranteed more money by staying in Japan. While the signing bonus from an NPB team would presumably fall short of any MLB offer by a million dollars or so, he could still get a 100 million yen ($1 million) bonus in Japan and he’ll immediately be under NPB contract. On the other hand, in the MLB system, after the bonus money, he would be subjected to the standard paltry pay of a minor-leaguer. Of course, this would be rendered moot by any MLB team willing to accept the penalties in place for exceeding the cap, but I’m not so sure teams would be willing to do so.

Overall, it’s just concerning because it’s easy to say you’re going to do something, but when the easy route is laid out in front of somebody (much less a teenager), with millions of dollars at stake, and a ton of pressure, nobody could blame him for simply taking what might be a record deal given to him by whoever drafts him.

Also of note is that he’ll be banned from the NPB for three years under the “Tazawa Rule” (named after Junichi Tazawa of the Red Sox) if he chooses to go overseas, but I doubt that comes into play.

Who is going to sign him?

I sort of addressed this already, but it’s basically down to the Dodgers, Rangers, and Red Sox, according to him. Others are interested but he’s focusing on those three.

The Japanese media believe the Dodgers are in front because they’ve been in contact with him the longest. While that does mean something, a ton can change, obviously.

How does the NPB feel about Shohei Otani jumping to the MLB?

As I explained in a previous post, this is a trailblazing path for Otani, and the NPB is concerned about the precedent he might set.

Articles from Nikkan Sports and Spoinichi show a range of reactions from teams that basically can be summarized to say that the NPB needs to look at revising the rules.

Most notably to me, via Daily Sports, the President of the Hanshin Tigers complains that while NPB scouts are restricted in terms of contact and meetings with players, international scouts are not, thus putting NPB teams at a disadvantage for their own players.

I want Cliffs Notes!

If he doesn’t get drafted, negotiations can start tomorrow.

If selected in the NPB Draft, he could be tempted to stay in Japan due to monetary, cultural, and family issues, and even if he does follow through on his overseas ambitions, negotiations with him wouldn’t be able to start until April 1st. As such, it doesn’t appear that this saga will be over for at least another 6-7 months or so.

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Since the Dodgers are in the running for his services and he’d definitely be a top prospect in the system if signed, I’ll keep everybody updated on his situation as best I can.

Shohei Otani, the fire-balling high school Japanese pitching phenom, has opted for a career in the MLB, according to the Associated Press.

Otani, a 6-foot-4 right-hander who has thrown a fastball between 99 and 100 mph, has been scouted by several major league teams including the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox.

The 18-year-old Otani said “I think I will start in the minor leagues but I want to challenge in the majors. It’s been my dream since entering high school.”

Otani was expected to go in the first round of Thursday’s amateur draft in Japan.

If he signs with a major league team, Otani would become the first potential top draft pick to make the direct jump from a Japanese high school to the U.S.

The AP has the Dodgers in a competition with the Red Sox.

I wrote about Otani in detail a couple weeks ago, and at that time, the Dodgers were described as “front-runners” for his services, according to the Japanese media. The significant issues back then primarily revolved around his willingness to do exactly what he just did, so now that he’s made his decision, his path to the Dodgers has gotten a lot clearer.

Any fan of the team has to hope he chooses the Dodgers, as it would be impossible to overpay him due to international budget restraints, and it’s not every day that one has the chance to add a high-90s high school arm to the system.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Even though he’s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach.

So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.

And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.

I’m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many Dodgers fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman invokes Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.

The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.

Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.

All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.

Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can’t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far better player and Rubby De La Rosa, while one of my favorites, won’t get to ace level.

Sports Illustrated: Jay Jaffe acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.

All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.

Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.

Dodgers Now: Stan Kasten says they aren’t maxed out yet though.

If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade — and close to a half-billion dollars in four months — is there a limit to their spending?

“Somewhere, I suppose,” Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.

And where might that limit be?

“I haven’t found it yet,” President Stan Kasten said. “I’ll let you know when we get there.”

Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we’ll see in the 2013 off-season.

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.

From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.

I’m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn’t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of Frank McCourt. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they’re already back up to third. As such, I don’t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn’t come back and they wouldn’t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.

Also, I don’t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We’re all speculating, but logically I don’t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It’s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.

Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.

Maybe, but I can’t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I’d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.

ESPN: Buster Olney names his winners and losers … with the Dodgers on both.

Winners: The Dodgers of 2012

They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.

Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers’ ownership group

In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don’t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.

Losers: The Dodgers of 2017

The team’s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years — Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers’ farm system should be replenished, and the club’s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have — and, in any event, Dodgers fans won’t have to worry about that for a while.

ESPN: Keith Law takes a good now and bad later approach as well.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).

They’re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.

Rival exec on #Dodgers: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2012

Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn’t simply say to BOS: We’ll take your bad contracts, but we’re not giving you any prospects of note.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 25, 2012

NL exec view:”The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett’s money and traded two great arms to get him.”

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) August 25, 2012

While I don’t necessarily disagree with their assessment, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.

The Dodgers finalized a trade today that will send Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Cash.

I gave my initial reaction to the deal yesterday, but after an in-depth analysis, did anything change?

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Adrian Gonzalez

The Dodgers are paying ~$130 million for six years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 26 WAR or 4.2 WAR per year.

Will he be worth it? I’m quite confident he will be, despite issues that others have concerns about.

In 2011 with the Red Sox, he hit .338/.410/.548/.957, posting a ~6.5 WAR season. He got off to a slow start in 2012, however, and thus only has a .300/.343/.469/.812 line. However, he has come on of late, and he projects to finish the year on a .301/.369/.504/.873 tear, so I don’t think he’s at the start of a precipitous decline. The primary concern is that his career 10.7 BB% has dipped to 5.9%, and it will need to rebound for him to live up to his usual standard. With that said, his batting projection puts his OPS around .860 or so, which presumes a gain in walk rate.

His fielding has never been in doubt, as he is a plus defender across all advanced metrics and I don’t think anybody would argue with it. He does lack foot speed though, which is why his baserunning total comes in low.

That’s not to say there’s minimal risk though, which makes sense, since he wouldn’t have been let go otherwise. He’s in his age-30 season right now, and aging curves tell us that he’s likely to regress over the course of his contract, as the mid-30s are generally the danger area. On the upside, I don’t see a reason to be concerned about injuries, as he has never played in less than 156 games in a full season.

Factoring everything above, A-Gon comes out to about a 5 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 27 WAR after accounting for age regression. While he won’t be providing much surplus value beyond what he’s being paid by the Dodgers, he should be well worth the acquisition, especially considering the barren first base market and the lack of internal options. The A-Gon part of this deal is cause of excitement.

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Carl Crawford

The Dodgers are paying ~$105 million for five years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 21 WAR or 4.1 WAR per year.

Unlike A-Gon, where I have trouble seeing how he’s not worth it, I have trouble seeing how Crawford will even get anywhere close to worth it.

For the past two seasons, Crawford has been … uh … a mess. He’s been worth a total of around 0.5 WAR, which needless to say doesn’t bode well for his 4.1 WAR goal. Even if you completely believe that his skills are intact, his body throws a sizable wrench into the equation to say the least, and it doesn’t help then that he may miss a few months of next season. He was projected to post a .283/.323/.446/.769 line for the rest of 2012, which is quite generous since his actual line has been .260/.292/.419/.711 for 2011 and 2012. For the projection, I put him around a .780 OPS, which is almost what he posted in his last few years with the Rays.

On the basepaths, despite his basestealing ability, he’s never been a plus baserunner, but he does clock in on the positive side of the ledger due to his speed. His defense will probably generate the biggest debate, as it was once a plus tool, but it has since regressed to average at best across the advanced metrics due to injury or whatever else. Personally though, I think he should benefit from the bigger spaces in Dodger Stadium, so he should return to form. However, it would be dishonest to just grant him plus status after two clear years of regression, so I made him just good instead of elite.

Like Gonzalez, Crawford is in his age-30 season and will regress over the course of his contract, including the dreaded mid-30s. Unlike Gonzalez, there’s ample reason to worry about Crawford’s health, and his projected playing time reflects that, clocking in at ~550 plate appearances.

Factoring everything above, Crawford comes out to about a 2.9 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 12 WAR after accounting for age regression.

So he should be worth a bit more than half his contract, and when that contract totals in excess of $100 million that burns quite a bit. Unlike at first base, the options in the outfield, either short-term or long-term, to get better value were plentiful. Therefore, I can’t see how anybody would be excited about taking him on. The “he’s better than Juan Rivera” argument only works for this year because the Dodgers would have options in the offseason, and since Crawford won’t be playing this year there’s really no defense for this. I’m assuming a lot in his favor as it is, and if he’s right he should be a decent player for the team until late in the deal, but he certainly won’t be worth what the Dodgers are paying him unless lighting strikes.

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Josh Beckett

The Dodgers are paying ~$35 million for two years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.75 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 7.5 WAR or 3.5 WAR per year.

I’m actually more confident that Crawford will make meaningful contributions than Beckett for reasons that go beyond statistics, so needless to say, I’m skeptical about him earning his keep.

In 2012, Beckett has a 5.23 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA. That’s about the profile of Bud Norris of the Astros at the moment … if Norris was set to make $16 million annually.

The reason I only mention 2012 is this report by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Goldstein says that Beckett’s 70 fastball has turned into a 55/60. His once-biting curve has lost a similar amount of stuff: Goldstein reports that he would be “leery” of putting a 60 rating on it and might call it a 50-plus. His cutter, he explains, is at best a 40. Given how often he throws it, the cutter could be something of an Achilles’ heel for Beckett going forward.

Goldstein is not terribly optimistic about Beckett’s performance going forward and grades him as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter going forward.

That scouting report is backed by fastball velocity that has dropped from 93.8 MPH for his career to 91.6 MPH, and a strikeout rate that has gone from a career 22.2% to 17.2%. I’m not sure how anybody could reasonably expect him to bounce back to 4-5 WAR levels with that profile.

Like Gonzalez and Crawford, Beckett isn’t young. He’s in his age-32 season, is showing signs of decline, and is under contract into his mid-30s. There’s reason to worry about injury too, as he missed significant time (60-day DL) two years ago with a back strain and was placed on the DL for shoulder inflammation this year. Since he’ll likely only get to ~160 innings this year, I think giving him ~175 is generous enough.

Factoring everything above, Beckett comes out to about a 2.1 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 4 WAR after accounting for age regression.

Like Crawford, he projects to be worth a bit more than half what he’s being paid, but it burns a lot less because it’s only a two year commitment after 2012. Of course, there’s opportunity cost here as well, because there’s always bargain options that can provide 1.5 to 2.5 WAR for a lot less than what Beckett will be paid, as Chris Capuano and the likes have proven. I suppose there’s upside hidden deep in Beckett’s profile in that maybe he regains his stuff, but I can’t bet on it due to his age. Besides, both his numbers and the scouting match each other, and that’s usually a recipe for accuracy. Hope for the best, but I wouldn’t expect anything better than a #4 starter.

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Nick Punto

The Dodgers are paying ~$2 million for one year and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 0.5 WAR or 0.4 WAR per year.

Don’t think I need a table for this one, as it’s purely to give the Dodgers a utility guy, I believe. Punto is at .200/.301/.272/.573 for 2012 and is projected to hit .229/.327/.271/.598 the rest of the way, which matches his age profile and career hitting ability. He’s above average on the bases and can play second, third, and short, where he grades out as a plus defender at every position.

His value on the bench is contingent on the Dodgers finding guys that can hit because he’s purely a defensive replacement or a spot starter. Still, he’s a solid utility guy because of his defense and versatility. He’ll be serviceable, which is all he’s being paid for, so it should be fine.

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Rubby De La Rosa

As a starter last year, he posted a 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.55 xFIP/3.85 SIERA with a 23.6 K% and a 12.2 BB% before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. After rehabbing for a year, he’s back and so is the velocity, so it seems the only thing lost was a year of development. Regardless, he has plus velocity and two potential swing-and-miss off-speed pitches in the change and slider. He’s rotation quality right now, and with command improvement, I don’t see why he couldn’t be a #2 or #3 rotation option.

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Allen Webster

After being demoted to the bullpen early in 2012, he may now be every bit the prospect that Rubby or Zach Lee is for the reasons Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus details here:

“It’s all there,” said a National League scout who was taken off his coverage to see the team. “When everything is going, he has three average-to-plus pitches and knows what to do with them.” The scout noted that Webster’s game has matured, as well. “He knows he has a really good—and potentially special—changeup, but he’s not over-relying on it anymore,” the scout explained. “It’s like he finally figured out that setting that pitch up with 92-94 mph heat is the best way to go about it, and his curveball has improved as well. He used to get over the ball and it wouldn’t finish, but now it’s breaking through the zone much better.”

His ceiling seems to be in the #2 range as well, with #3 to #4 a more likely destination. He should test the waters at the MLB level this year, and could be ready in 2013.

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Jerry Sands

For his career, his line at AAA Albuquerque is .291/.363/.557/.921 … but it’s Albuquerque. Still, I like his chances of becoming a major league contributor, though I’m not sure he’ll be worthy of holding down a left field spot for a team like the Red Sox. There’s a shot he becomes a regular, but I see him as more of a platoon guy or temporary starter as opposed to a long-term fit there.

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Ivan De Jesus

A .301/.354/.416/.770 line at Albuquerque paired with his .231/.282/.277/.559 career line with the Dodgers doesn’t bode well for him. Furthermore, while he can play second, short, and third, he’s only above average at second, so I’m not sure he even fits as a utility guy.

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James Loney

He’s been worth 0 to -1 WAR this season while making $6.5 million and he’s a free agent to be. Bye.

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So the Dodgers are paying ~$272 million to get the four mentioned players from the Red Sox, and the Red Sox will be kicking in about ~$12 million back to the Dodgers. So the team is paying for ~55 WAR of production, but is getting about ~43 WAR in value (~$212 million). As such, just by taking on the contracts alone, they figure to be looking at a surplus value around -$50 million. Then factor in the two top prospects, one solid prospect, a fringe prospect, and the corpse of James Loney, and you’re looking at quite a deficit to overcome, especially if any of them develop and hit their ceilings.

On the other hand, this undoubtedly makes the Dodgers better in the short-term, perhaps by as much as 7 or 8 wins in 2013. It should solidify the squad as a playoff favorite for this year and the next two years, perhaps even longer than that, depending on the decline phases of Crawford/Gonzalez.

While I understand that fans are excited by the prospects of that immediate improvement, I just have to wonder whether the Dodgers couldn’t do better if given ~$260 million to spend and the prospect package in question. Of the players received, only Adrian Gonzalez really fills a hole that couldn’t have been addressed in either 2013 or 2014. Then there’s the potential problems with payroll flexibility and the luxury tax that I’ve mentioned before. Also, as you can see through Jay Jaffe‘s work here, they’re really hemmed up in the short-term payroll-wise, and they now have $90 million sewn up in four players through 2017, which unfortunately doesn’t even include Clayton Kershaw yet.

As such, fans should surely enjoy the ride this year and in the immediate future, but it’s easy to justify significant concern over the long-term future of the roster, as all the risk in this deal is being taken by the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and Cash from the Red Sox for Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

Source confirms @gordonedes report: #Dodgers “close” to obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: #Dodgers have agreed to send Allen Webster, James Loney, Jerry Sands, Ivan De Jesus, and Rubby De La Rosa to #RedSox. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: If #Dodgers – #RedSox blockbuster occurs — and it is “close” — Boston would send some cash to LA. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

I’ll have a more detailed update on this trade later on tomorrow, but as of right now, I’m floored, honestly.

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My first impression though is to say that the trade isn’t for the better of the Dodgers overall. Yes, it makes them a better team immediately, but they likely now have limited financial flexibility for years to come. Ironically, that’s the reason the Red Sox did this deal to begin with.

Before calling me an idiot and asking me what the significance of that payroll worry is because the Dodgers now have money, maybe read this first on the Dodgers payroll and the luxury tax.

Additionally, the Dodgers are sending two top prospects to the Red Sox, both of which could contribute soon, in Rubby and Webster. Sands is certainly not a regular at this point, but he’s ready to try now, and he could develop into one. De Jesus could be a decent utility guy and Loney is whatever.

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The contract obligations the Dodgers are assuming total in excess of $250 million AFTER this year is over, and the team is giving up two of their best prospects and another solid one, so unless the cash coming back is significant, then this probably leaves the team better off in the short-term but worse off in the long-term.

Surely this drastically makes the team better now, but it also sets the Dodgers up to have an old, injury prone, and expensive roster going forward. I sure hope the Dodgers win now, because if they don’t, it could get ugly in a hurry.

The most talked about news of late regarding the Dodgers is Ed Desser of The Hollywood Reporter estimating that the Dodgers television rights deal could be worth anywhere from $4.5 billion to $8.5 billion depending on the route ownership chooses to go.

Sign a Rights Deal

Most Major League Baseball teams license about 150 regular-season games a year for regional telecast. The Dodgers can extend the license arrangements with Fox and/or KCAL; make deals with other stations in the market; contract with the two Time Warner Cable sports networks that launch Oct. 1; or license a new entity or some combination of these alternatives. Given the competitive marketplace for Dodgers rights, we estimate average annual rights fees between $175 million and $225 million. Assuming a 20-year initial term — the length of a deal recently inked by the L.A. Angels of Anaheim — this low-risk arrangement could be worth $4.5 billion.

Start a Network

The Dodgers could start their own regional sports network. In this scenario, they would essentially “sell” the rights to themselves and compete with their jilted suitors. The team would control production, ad and sponsor sales integration, team-related support programming and distribution of its product. But it would also undertake far greater risk, effectively “doubling down” rather than outsourcing the risk. Several teams have successfully launched such networks (the New York Yankees/Brooklyn Nets YES Network, Boston Red Sox/Bruins NESN). However, others have been unsuccessful in such endeavors in the past decade (Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals). Because of the wide range of potential distribution outcomes, we estimate average annual revenue from as little as $125 million to as much as $425 million. Over 20 years, if everything were to go very well, this could be worth $8.5 billion, including rights, profits and equity value.

The Hybrid Model

The Angels, San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers have partnered with Fox and Comcast regional sports network operators to license their rights and obtain a share of equity ownership. The risks of obtaining distribution are effectively mitigated, and a large entertainment company provides the financial backing. The Dodgers could make such a deal with Fox or TW Cable. They could also take on production, sales, financial and/or distribution partner(s) to gain greater control but with lower risk and upside. With predictable distribution, the difference in value turns on the ownership percentage the team might obtain, the rights fee and the network’s profitability. We estimate the annual value to the Dodgers of $225 million to $375 million. A 20-year deal could be worth $7.5 billion in rights, profits and equity.

That’s all well and good, but I see this being used by people as justification for spending any amount of money on any amount of players, and quite frankly, it’s a bit scary.

While I’m certainly as excited about having payroll freedom as any fan is, I don’t agree with the sudden attitude shift. It’s as if the mindset now boils down to, “OMG! TEAM HAS MONEY! SPEND IT ON ALL THE BEST FREE AGENTS! WHO CARES WHAT IT COSTS?!”

Sort of an ironic attitude to adopt as we complain about the Yankees and Red Sox and mock the Giants for Barry Zito‘s deal, no?

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Fandom aside, my primary concern lies in the luxury tax serving as a de facto salary cap.

The luxury tax remained relatively unchanged in the new CBA. The threshold level for the luxury tax will be $178 million in both 2012 and 2013 (the same as it was in 2011), and will be raised to $189 million from 2014-2016.

I talk about it being a salary cap because under the new CBA, it has become punitive enough that even the Yankees are looking to head under the luxury tax by 2014. The Red Sox apparently aren’t immune to it either, as they traded their starting shortstop for a situational lefty before the 2012 season in what now appears to be an effort to avoid the luxury tax.

Given that the Dodgers payroll for 2012 now stands at $138,083,695, and that the team has already committed $148,383,716 in 2013 and $93,875,000 in 2014, I don’t think throwing money around wildly as if the Dodgers now have no limits is exactly the wisest course of action for the franchise.

To put the payroll situation in perspective, the Dodgers are already one big ticket signing away from being on the edge of the luxury tax next year, so people suggesting that the team go out and dump money in front of Zack Greinke, Josh Hamilton, and everybody else on the market might want to pump the brakes a bit before the team ends up with as little payroll flexibility as they had before Frank McCourt got evicted.

With a headline like that, you would expect this is for the division lead, right?

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No. It’s to see which team ends up in last place.

I swear these two teams could both be at 40-121 going into the last game of the season and their finish would still be hyped more than the teams who were actually winning.