Left field has been, is, and will in all likelihood continue to be, a vast wasteland for the Dodgers. That is, unless Carl Crawford returns to his Tampa Bay form in 2013 or the Yasiel Puig era — whenever that actually begins — proves to be worth the wait.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s review 2012, which was a comedy of mediocrity flanking Matt Kemp‘s right side.

Shane Victorino

I start with Shane Victorino, not because he was any good, but because he carries with him name value. Coming off a career year in 2011, he dropped off significantly in 2012. Following a campaign in which he slashed .279/.355/.491/.846 with a .368 wOBA, The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit just .255/.321/.383/.704 with a .310 wOBA this past season. That line fell even further after he was dealt to the Dodgers, as he hit a putrid .245/.316/.351/.667 with a .297 wOBA in Dodger Blue.

Known as an elite baserunner with a great glove in center, some pop, and decent on-base skills, Victorino’s offensive numbers crashed across the board in 2012 from his 2011 and career marks. He set or tied career worsts in ISO (.128), OBP (.321), wOBA (.310), wRC+ (94), and SLG% (.383).

Shane still managed to provide some value through his legs (~5.0 baserunning) and glove (~2.5 fielding), and he ended up posting a ~3.0 WAR in 2012, but only ~1.0 WAR after the trade.

Reports have Shane seeking a long-term deal this year as he hits free agency, and though he’s intimated at returning only as a starter, with the aforementioned Crawford and Puig signed to long-term deals themselves — not to mention the fact that heading into his age-32 season — there’s no place in a crowded Los Angeles outfield for the three-time Dodger.

Bobby Abreu

After being released by the Angels and qualifying to be a Dodger based on his “veteranness”, Bobby Abreu started 42 games in left for the Dodgers in 2012, the second-most of any player on the team behind the previously-discussed Victorino.

After a splashy start to his Dodger stint (.318/.430/.424/.854 in his first 24 games, buoyed by a .438 BABIP, no less), Abreu was right back to the player that he was at the end of his Angels career, the one that got him DFA’d: .209/.325/.302/.627 over his final 68 games as a Dodger, which included a trip to the minors.

He won’t be back. Please listen to that, Ned Colletti.

No.

Juan Rivera

Juan Rivera started 30 games in left, hitting .282/.313/.376/.689 in the process. As he started more games at first than in left in 2012, he’ll get a more depressing detailed write-up in that Season Review.

Let’s just say his WAR was ~-0.3 and move on to other, less predictable matters.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

As everybody knew going into the game, it was literally a must-win contest for the Dodgers, as the magic number of the Cardinals was one for the final playoff spot in the National League.

—–

Buster Posey started the scoring in the top of second inning with a homer off Chris Capuano.

A Luis Cruz RBI groundout knotted the game at one, but Joaquin Arias broke the tie with a homer in the top of the third.

Yes, seriously. Joaquin Arias.

Then Marco Scutaro extended their lead in the top of fifth inning with a two-RBI double.

A.J. Ellis, the miracle man, responded with a two-run homer to right-center in the bottom of the seventh to draw the Dodgers within one.

Two batters later, the turning point in the game happened, as Mark Ellis was gunned down by about eleventy billion feet at third base on a ball hit into the gap.

I mean … what the fuck?

Immediately after that, Shane Victorino tripled, and while I always say that baseball results don’t exist in a vacuum … wow it was tough to watch.

—–

In the ninth, as if to torture us further, Andre Ethier singled to lead off the inning against a lefty reliever, which is a miracle in itself.

So bring in Dee Gordon to pinch run and either let him try to steal second or just let A.J. hit, right? Nope, try to bunt with the guy who got the game to within one in the first place! Don Mattingly everybody! His 2012 season coup de grace.

I mock the move because even assuming a successful bunt, there’s a 5.3% drop in the chance the Dodgers win, and that comes without context. With context? A.J. is a quality overall hitter with .375 OBP skills and you’re going to bunt with him for either Elian Herrera or Bobby Abreu? Does this even make sense to traditional managers? Good lord.

Results-wise, sure enough, A.J. got buntfucked. Bunt attempts put him in a two-strike hole and he eventually struck out. As if to taunt us, Dee then stole second successfully, but Abreu flew out to left.

That set up M. Ellis for an attempt at redemption.

What else can you say?

Mark Ellis missed two games due to an illness this week, and was replaced by Nick Punto in the lineup.

That’s for in case you were wondering why Punto was ever in the lineup to begin with. Though to be fair, he did do well in his limited playing time.

—–

Shane Victorino was scratched from Wednesday’s game with recurring wrist pain.

Oh well, he’s basically the unholy combination of Bobby Abreu and Tony Gwynn Jr. at this point anyway.

—–

Luis Cruz left Saturday’s game with a headache.

If he wasn’t so loved, I’m sure some idiot would say he’s soft for sitting out while the Dodgers are still alive in the playoff race, or some garbage like that. Josh Hamilton and Percy Harvin know what I mean.

—–

Chad Billingsley has continued to show improvement in his light throwing sessions.

His progress is probably going to be the story of the month unless the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs. Whether or not he needs Tommy John surgery is going to have a gigantic impact on 2013 and whether pitching is a priority for the Dodgers during the offseason.

Paco Rodriguez, the lefty reliever out of University Of Florida and the Dodgers‘ second round pick in 2012, was recalled to replace the injured Chad Billingsley, who found himself on the 60-day DL with his elbow injury that may require offseason surgery.

Rodriguez becomes the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show. He’ll help out with lefty reliever depth out of the pen with Scott Elbert and Ted Lilly on the mend.

—–

Bobby Abreu was recalled from AAA Albuquerque. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, Chris Withrow was momentarily recalled before being placed on the 60-day DL.

He should help with bench depth and could spell struggling Shane Victorino from time to time at this rate.

—–

Alex Castellanos was recalled from AAA.

He’ll likely be a right-handed bench addition, but there’s a case to be made that maybe the Dodgers are better off hoping he can find his stroke and make some quality starts in the outfield. Would be hard to be worse than Juan Rivera.

—–

Josh Wall also got a call-up from the Isotopes.

Will look to provide depth to a suddenly thin bullpen arrangement.

Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his last start due to a hip injury, for which he received a cortisone shot. His start was taken by Joe Blanton. Clayton hopes to return and start on Tuesday.

—–

Kenley Jansen, barring any unforeseen setback, will pitch again this season before undergoing offseason surgery on his heart. He won’t pitch within the next ten days – at the least – as he waits for his blood-thinner medication to leave his system.

—–

Chad Billingsley had another platelet injection in his right elbow before seeing his season end as he was placed on the 60-day DL. Paco Rodriguez was called up and took Bills’ roster spot. Now all that remains is whether or not he ends up needing surgery. Bills will resume throwing in two weeks, after tests revealed a partial tear of the UCL in the aforementioned right elbow.

—–

Randy Choate took a grounder off of his pitching hand but should be fine, as he said a couple of fingers were struck but no major damage came from it. With both Scott Elbert and Ted Lilly rehabbing and Paco a rookie, the Dodgers are short on southpaws in the pen, making Choate’s continued health vital.

—–

Javy Guerra was placed on the 15-day DL with an oblique strain, and there’s a real chance his season is over.

—–

Adam Kennedy injured his groin and is likely out for the season, saying he “felt a pop.”

—–

If Ted Lilly – who threw a simulated game earlier in the week – returns, it will be in a relief role.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing hip on Monday.

—–

Chris Withrow was transferred to the 60-day DL after a momentary call-up in order to allow Bobby Abreu to be placed back on the 40-man roster.

Matt Kemp left Tuesday’s game in Colorado after smashing into the center field wall, somehow managing to stay in, and soon thereafter diving for a ball and landing awkwardly. If you’re so inclined, GIFs of the collision can be seen here. Tests revealed no concussion or concussion symptoms, and Matt walked away from the incident with nothing more than a bruised left knee. He returned to the lineup a few days after the frightening incident.

—–

Kenley Jansen was unavailable for the series in Colorado after experiencing recurring issues with his heart, which felled him for a month or so in 2011 and earlier in 2012 during Spring Training. These new issues are related to the old ones, reports Dylan Hernandez. The Dodgers and Jansen await test results, as his season could be over.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s season also hangs in the balance as he awaits what could be season-ending surgery. These fears were expressed earlier in the week by Stan Kasten. Bills’ right elbow was treated with an injection of platelet-rich plasma in an effort to avoid missing the stretch run. Tommy John surgery seems like a possibility if our worst fears come to fruition.

—–

Scott Elbert was placed on the 15-day DL once again with left elbow inflammation. Shawn Tolleson was recalled to take his place. Don Mattingly is cautiously optimistic that Elbert could return when the 15-day period concludes.

—–

Matt Guerrier was activated from the 60-day DL, sending Josh Wall back to AAA and Dee Gordon from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL in the process. Gordon won’t be gone for long though, as he is eligible to return now that rosters have expanded.

—–

Alfredo Silverio was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to free up a spot on the 40-man roster to allow for John Ely‘s call-up. Silverio is on the DL after suffering multiple injuries in a car crash earlier this year.

—–

In minor league injury news, Arismendy Ozoria, Luis Vasquez, Mike Antonini, Jarret Martin, Aaron Miller, Greg Wilborn, Casio Grider, Charlie Mirabal, Bobby Coyle, and Tyler Henson were all placed on the 7-day DL, while a host of others – most notably Chris Reed and Bobby Abreu – were activated from the 7-day DL.

Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!

Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um … the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.

—–

One of the primary issues is that Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because Ted Lilly (maybe) and Dee Gordon are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps Chad Billingsley, Kenley Jansen, or Scott Elbert could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.

Either way, guys like Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe, Matt Angle, Elian Herrera, and Stephen Fife might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called — like John Ely, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Bobby Abreu — might be left disappointed.

—–

Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are Tim Federowicz, Javy Guerra, Josh Wall, and Alex Castellanos. I already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he’s a good defender and is an upgrade over Matt Treanor right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I’d rather see him get a chance than continue to run Juan Rivera out there, that’s for sure.

Other possibilities on the 40-man are Scott Van Slyke and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or Nick Punto. I’m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he’s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.

Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they’re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don’t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu’s healthy, he could probably do what Shane Victorino is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.

—–

Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.

As I wrote yesterday, the Dodgers acquired outfielder Shane Victorino from the Phillies in return for reliever Josh Lindblom, AA starter Ethan Martin, and either a player to be named later or cash.

Shane Victorino is returning to the organization that drafted him in 1999. The Dodgers acquired Victorino from the Phillies today for starting pitching prospect Ethan Martin and reliever Josh Lindblom, according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown (Twitter link). The deal has been officially announced by both teams, and the Phillies also received a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Josh Lindblom

From 2011 to 2012, in what amounts to about a full season’s worth of work (75 G/77.1 IP), Lindblom has posted a 2.91 ERA/4.02 FIP/4.19 xFIP/3.53 SIERA. He’s been worth around 0.7 WAR in that time period and figures to be around 0.5 to 1.0 WAR annually, depending on whether you believe his defense independent profile or batted ball profile.

After this season, he has five years of team control left, so taking the middle ground of things, he figures to be worth around 4 WAR during that time.

Ethan Martin

I ranked Martin as the 21st best prospect in the system coming into 2012, based primarily on his upside. In 2011, he seemed destined for a bullpen role, as he could never get it together as a starter, but the lack of ceiling in the Dodgers system led me to rank him anyway.

The Dodgers decided to give him another shot in 2012 as a starter and it has paid dividends. In 118 innings at AA, he has a 3.58 ERA and a 3.48 FIP due to continuing to miss bats (22.9 K%) but dropping his walk rate four percent (12.5%).

He’s not that old for the level at 23 and would have ranked somewhere in the top 10 in the system going into 2013. I probably would have put his upside as a #3 starter or late inning reliever with a high risk grade, an improvement from #3/#4 starter and late inning reliever with a very high risk grade.

Player To Be Named Later Or Cash

PTBNL rarely amount to much so I wouldn’t be concerned about it. Cash obviously doesn’t affect the Dodgers much either. Both figure to be moot unless there’s a shocking twist.

Shane Victorino

2012 marks Victorino’s worst offensive season of his career, posting a .261/.324/.401/.724 line. He’s a good baserunner and an average defender in center (Last Four Years: 0 DRS, -7 FRAA), but a lot of his offensive value comes from the fact that he’s a center fielder, which may not be the case with the Dodgers. Still, there’s no doubt that he marks an upgrade over the previous occupants, who have posted a pathetic line of .238/.294/.329/.623.

Victorino projects at .271/.338/.439/.777 the rest of the way, while the three headed monster of Bobby Abreu (.253/.343/.373/.716), Juan Rivera (.261/.312/.394/.706), and Tony Gwynn Jr. (.252/.306/.341/.647) all clock in well below that.

Comparing Victorino with the three-headed monster that was sharing time in left shows a ~4.5 run upgrade offensively, ~0.5 run upgrade on the bases, and a ~3 run upgrade defensively. That’s assuming the regressed offensive performance and that Victorino adjusts from average/fringe center fielder to above average/good left fielder defensively. So he’s about a 0.8 marginal win upgrade or so.

For the record, PECOTA has him at only a half win upgrade.

—–

While I liked both Lindblom and Martin, they weren’t elite assets, so I’m not going to throw a fit like I was on Twitter when I thought they dealt Allen Webster. However, they were assets that obviously had value, and as a rule of thumb, I don’t like trading valuable assets for rentals except under certain circumstances (history generally shows why), such as an elite team looking to shore up roles.

My cause for concern with trades like these has less to do with Victorino specifically though, as he does indeed represent a significant upgrade in left. Over a full season, he would be about a 2.0 to 2.5 win upgrade over what the Dodgers were trotting out there. However, all they get is two months, and while I assumed he will regress to norms, he may not, and even if he does, his marginal value is minimal because of the time frame involved.

Overall, I understand why people are thrilled with this move, and I hope for the best along with everybody else, but I don’t think there’s much to get excited about either way.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello gave his mid-season grades for the offense.

Thought he was a bit friendly to Bobby Abreu given that most of his production wasn’t so much skill-based as luck-based.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello gave his mid-season grades for the pitchers.

I don’t quite understand why Chris Capuano gets an A basically for his ERA (actual performance) when he recognizes that he’s been fortunate. Yet the grade for Ted Lilly is primarily based on the fact that he was lucky. Same for Jamey Wright, who currently has a negative WAR on the basis of his actual results but gets a solid grade because of his peripherals.

I feel like it was harsh on Chad Billingsley on the basis of results versus peripherals and the fact that I don’t think expectations should have been so high. Same goes for Nate Eovaldi, because he posted a 4.35 FIP/4.80 xFIP/5.11 SIERA last year, so I’m not sure where the expectations were supposed to be at.

—–

FanGraphs: Twins GM Terry Ryan gave an interesting view on how their front office evaluates their scouts.

DL: How do go about evaluating your scouts?

TR: Well, they pretty much make that assessment pretty easy. When they send us their guys over the course of a couple years, you start to get a pretty good cross-section of what they’ve sent you. Now you can’t — a 31st-round draft choice that a scout signed, that’s pretty deep. How is he fitting in? Has he got a chance? Has he helped the organization get better? If a scout sends us guys that don’t want to get with the program too often, those are the types of guys that — each one of our scouts has a direct supervisor that’s in communication with him constantly. They’re the guys that funnel the information to that supervisor. Has he got his stuff in? Is he thorough? Does he got the medical? Does he got the signability? Is he taking me to see guys that don’t have a chance? Those are how you evaluate scouts. Usually the supervisor has the best grasp of what kind of scout we’ve got.

They also graduate into professional coverage. That’s when I start to get involved, because I read the reports daily. If their numbers and their verbal and their role don’t add up, they get calls. It doesn’t take too long to figure out “Listen, this guy doesn’t know what he’s doing. We better get him pointed in the right direction.” That’s how we evaluate scouts.

DL: Some fans are guilty of judging scouts only by who they signed, with no knowledge of who they recommended.

TR: We have their list, obviously. But there’s nothing more frustrating to have an area scout say, “I had him right there, but we didn’t get him.” Well, you didn’t have him in high enough, then. We don’t ever want to hear that. That’s an excuse. “Oh, I had all those guys in. We didn’t get any of them, but I had them in.” That’s protecting your hind side. That doesn’t work.

Not going to agree or disagree, but the interview provided insight into an aspect of things that I had not seen elsewhere.

Deadspin: Deadspin made GIFs of the strike three call of every umpire. Seriously.

This is part one.

Deadspin: Part two.

So with the Dodgers basically looking at everybody, and with the Carlos Lee trade falling through, the team has now revealed five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners.

Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The players believed in their sights include Brewers sluggers Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart; Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster; Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer; and Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. At the top of the club’s wish list are a productive corner infielder and a starting pitcher.

I thought the five players were intriguing options, so I decided to take a detailed look at all of them.

=====

Aramis Ramirez – 3B – Brewers

Dodgers third basemen on the year have combined to go .245/.319/.340/.659, and that’s being kind because utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. has a .326/.380/.500/.880 line in 50 plate appearances there. Hairston operates best as a super utility guy though, so Ramirez would essentially be a Juan Uribe (.200/.259/.280/.539)/Adam Kennedy (.228/.319/.289/.608)replacement.

Ramirez has hit .263/.341/.471/.812 so far in 2012 and he projects to improve on that a bit at .274/.341/.484/.824. Uribe and Kennedy are about average defensively, while Ramirez is well below average, bordering on poor. There’s a five to ten run gap on defense that Ramirez will have to make up, and that he does. For the rest of 2012, Ramirez projects to be about 20-25 runs better offensively than the combination of men he’s replacing. If you buy into his splits, which for his career have him ~60 OPS points higher in the second half, the disparity could be even more significant. Also, despite being 34, his peripherals show little sign of decline.

Of course, there’s the problem of the contract that the team would be taking on. Making $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014 with a 2015 mutual option/$4 million buyout, the Dodgers would hypothetically be on the hook for about $32 million for 2.5 years of service.

A bit painful but perhaps not overly terrible for a 3-4 WAR player, even one due to regress because of age. Ramirez would basically have to be worth around 7 or 8 WAR to make it work, and he figures to be in the neighborhood of that figure. Furthermore, he plays third, and unlike the corner outfield positions, third basemen are a much rarer asset. This is particularly true for the Dodgers, who have a complete dearth of internal options. Now factor in that the free agent market might come down to Maicier Izturis, and Ramirez isn’t such a terrible shot to take.

For the Brewers part, the Dodgers will probably have to wait until the last minute. Milwaukee sits a mere seven games back of first right now, which may seem like a lot, but with two wild card spots this year and the Cardinals late charge in 2011 fresh in everybody’s memory, they’ll probably be taking this decision down to the wire. One winning streak and they may not end up selling off at all.

—–

Corey Hart – RF – Brewers

Dodgers left fielders have hit .242/.300/.333/.632 on the year, which is amazingly bad. Hart would be a boon for the team, as he’s currently at .251/.313/.505/.818 and projects to hit .264/.327/.484/.811 the rest of the way. An average fielder, he would improve that area of the outfield as well, as they are basically stuck with Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu as their primary options.

Hart is signed through 2013 and makes $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. His contract is more than reasonable for a 3-4 WAR player, and he’s a potential addition who could make upwards of a 25-35 run difference over the rest of the year (that’s being conservative, really).

Like Ramirez though, he may never become available, as the Brewers may never end up selling.

—–

Ryan Dempster – RHP – Cubs

I already addressed his potential addition here, but his acquisition makes even more sense now with Ted Lilly being transferred to the 60-day DL, health unknown, as Dempster would be a huge improvement over Nate Eovaldi.

The Cubs are 14 games back and are shopping everybody, so he’ll be on the market.

—–

Cole Hamels – LHP – Phillies

I like Hamels for the same reason I like Dempster, except he’s even better than Dempster and has a longer track record of excellence without the immediate injury history. He’s a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher and a solid #1/#2 to slot behind Clayton Kershaw if the Dodgers can make the playoffs.

A 2.79 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.02 xFIP/3.03 SIERA in 2011 and a 3.08 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.24 xFIP/3.25 SIERA in 2012 basically says it all.

Hamels makes $15 million in 2012 and is slated to be a free agent, one that will probably be pursued by the Dodgers either way. The Phillies are 12 games back and should be sellers.

—–

Michael Cuddyer – RF – Rockies

Like Hart, he would be replacing a terrible concoction of outfielders that the Dodgers have trotted out in left field. Like Hart, he’s a solid hitter. Putting up a .284/.346/.459/.805 line in 2011, he has dropped a bit to .260/.313/.480/.793 in 2012, but projects to finish at a .281/.338/.485/.823 clip. Unlike Hart, he’s a rather poor defender, and I do have concerns that Coors Field is playing insane again, yet he’s still down a bit. That concern is especially true because he’s 33.

As far as his contract goes, he makes $10.5 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with performance bonuses that could up it by $1.5 million in 2014. A reasonable deal for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, but I think Hart is both the better overall player and the one with less risk.

The Rockies are 14 games back at the moment and surely would be willing to sell, even if it’s within the division.

=====

Overall, all of the rumored players mentioned represent significant improvements to the team. Unlike Carlos Lee, they are likely to be difference makers for the Dodgers, thus making it understandable that they surrender assets for them. Whether the trades are workable or worth it obviously still depends on what the Dodgers give up and the finances involved, but if these are the types of players the team is pursuing, they definitely seem headed down the right road.

Via Vin Scully Is My Homeboy

So according to Alex Angert of MLB.com, the Dodgers are winning because they like each other … or something to that effect.

But in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, it provides the best possible answer as to why this mixed-and-matched bunch of journeymen and callups have been able to string together the best record in baseball at 42-25.

Not a surprising article, and quite frankly, I expected one sooner.

Whenever a team achieves something above what was expected, the media generally takes the easy way out and attributes the success to chemistry or some other intangible. It’s a simple justification for a complicated reality, and it basically amounts to saying, “We were wrong, but not actually wrong, we just couldn’t see the things that nobody else could have seen either!” But that’s lazy to me, and it’s almost completely devoid of responsibility.

For my part, I predicted the 2012 Dodgers to check in at 81-81, and I actually thought I was being optimistic due to the projection models of everyone else.

As for my mea culpa, I’ll simply say that I was wrong, but for quantifiable/real reasons.

—–

Quite simply, they are winning because they are good on paper, not because of mysterious forces. The team’s Pythagorean record is 40-27, they are 42-25. Their third-order wins record (factors in opponent quality/statistical normalization) is 39-28, good for second in the NL and fourth in the MLB. Their performance thus far shows that they’ve simply been legitimately good.

Now whether the talent level is legit is a different story. Nobody had the Dodgers as one of the most talented teams in the majors, which is still probably true. So what accounts for their success? Heart and grit and stuff, right? Not really.

They have shown to have more talent than projected, despite certain positions still remaining mediocre. While Clayton Kershaw has come back to Earth a bit, Matt Kemp not only didn’t regress but actually progressed (while healthy), and Andre Ethier is on pace for the best season of his career. Jerry Hairston Jr., Bobby Abreu, Elian Herrera, Chris Capuano, and Aaron Harang, despite impending regression, have all shown to have talent levels above their projections as well. Not to mention that the bullpen has been rock solid despite being almost entirely reliant on team controlled arms from the farm system.

That talent, however, hasn’t succeeded on its own, as the team currently own the second highest BABIP in the majors at .318. Furthermore, while their ERA is second at 3.13, their FIP is sixth at 3.65 and their xFIP is 11th at 3.86. On an individual level, Abreu has a .431 BABIP, Herrera has a .410 BABIP, and I’ve already pointed out that the rotation has overachievers as well.

So the Dodgers have been winning because they’ve been partially extremely good and partially extremely fortunate. It’s an excellent combination that has powered the team to the best record in baseball despite injuries and mediocre talent at multiple positions. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with being both lucky and good. The fact that they are treading water without the guy who carried the team for April is amazing, and in a fortunate bit of timing, if they can continue to tread water until Kemp comes back, the team shouldn’t actually regress as hard as they would normally be expected to.

—–

So while I do believe that Don Mattingly is a great clubhouse guy and I do think his work has factored into the team’s success, I also believe that winning creates chemistry, not the other way around. It’s not hard to love each other when you hold the best record in baseball.

It’s easy to just assign a magical season to outstanding team chemistry or due karma now that the team is without Frank McCourt or the gravitational pull of Todd Coffey‘s gut helping to align the planets, but there are quantifiable reasons for their success without having to resort to intangibles and superstition.

Hopefully people recognize that, because doing otherwise sells the quality of their achievements short.

People are always asking me on Twitter whether Dee Gordon will be demoted. Demoted? Please. Don Mattingly won’t even budge on dropping him from the top spot in the lineup.

For whatever reason, Mattingly absolutely refuses to consider dropping Gordon from the top, and judging by what he said to AJ Cassavell yesterday, it doesn’t seem like he’ll be changing that stance any time soon.

“Dropping Dee in the order sounds really easy,” said Mattingly, who rested Gordon for Sunday’s series finale against Colorado. “But then who do you want me to hit there?”

Mark Ellis? A.J. Ellis? Bobby Abreu? Juan Rivera‘s ruptured hamstring? Davey Lopes?

Basically anybody or anything with an OBP higher than .250.

Newly acquired outfielder Bobby Abreu could lead off, Mattingly said, but that would take a potent bat out of the middle of the order.

But Abreu doesn’t even have power anymore, so hypothetically, all he’s good for is walking (hollow OBP, as Beyond The Boxscore put it).

It’s not like he’s being asked to put Matt Kemp in the lead-off spot.

Second baseman Mark Ellis could bat first, but Mattingly likes him in the two-hole, hitting ahead of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and doesn’t want Ellis’ role changing on a day-to-day basis.

Ellis’ spot in the lineup has nothing to do with his success though. Even if it did, unless he drops over 100 points in OBP, it’s not exactly going to kill the team any more than Gordon already is.

“He kind of needs to be that guy,” Mattingly said of Gordon. “I know we can’t force a square peg into a round hole, but we have been able to sustain so far without Dee kind of getting going.”

“I know we can’t force a square peg in a round hole … BUT I’M GONNA DO IT ANYWAY! TROLOLOLOLOLOLOL!” – Don Trollingly

Left fielder Tony Gwynn Jr. got the start on Sunday afternoon in the leadoff spot, but as a platoon player, Gwynn won’t be in the lineup with Gordon very often. When Gwynn does play on the same day as Gordon, Mattingly said he’d be fully comfortable moving Gordon down because of the speed and on-base ability Gwynn brings to the table.

This reveals the exact reason Mattingly refuses to demote Gordon. It’s basically because he can’t come to grips with the idea of using somebody without plus speed in the lead-off spot.

It’s why he’s comfortable with Tony Gwynn Jr. leading off despite his career .320 OBP, yet he makes excuses as to why the Ellis twins and Abreu can’t do it.

It’s like Mattingly’s decision making was imported from Dusty Baker and his dugout dice.

Mattingly dismissed that notion, saying he is content with leaving Ellis lower in the lineup, where he can drive in runs and turn the order over.

“You try to have a balanced lineup where you have a chance to score in all parts of the game,” Mattingly said. “Obviously the more guys you’ve got that are productive, the easier that is.”

Besides the fact that the lineup gets turned over regardless of batting order position, you know what else helps? Being productive in front of other productive players instead of walking, having the pitcher come up to create an automatic out, and setting it all up for … Gordon.

I love prospects, and I understand that Mattingly has to defend his guys, but moving a rookie shortstop down in the order so that there’s less pressure on him isn’t exactly some world ending move. In fact, it’s pretty standard, isn’t it? Joe Torre bat Kemp eighth for an eternity, so I think Gordon can stand a few plate appearances down there without imploding.

—–

In other news (maybe related), Elian Herrera is on his way to Los Angeles, and he’ll be activated if Kemp gets put on the disabled list.

His .282/.363/.388/.751 career line in the minors basically sums up his skills. He can take a walk, but offers little else.

So why does he get chosen? I don’t know. He’s a utility player, basically. He has played 2B/3B/SS/CF/LF, so Ned Colletti is inching closer to his dream of having an entire starting lineup of utility players.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Juan Rivera has been placed on the disabled list and Scott Van Slyke will take his place on the Dodgers.

The Dodgers on Wednesday placed outfielder Juan Rivera on the 15-day disabled list with a significant hamstring strain or tear behind the left knee and were recalling outfielder Scott Van Slyke from Triple-A Albuquerque.

Manager Don Mattingly described the injury as “fairly major,” “significant” and “not just a strain.”

He said newly signed Bobby Abreu would get most of Rivera’s playing time in left field, but Mattingly is “not looking at him as an everyday guy” because that would “run the risk of beating him up.”

Rivera, who missed six starts last month with a left hamstring injury, was removed from Tuesday night’s game when he felt “pins and needles” in the same area behind the back of his left knee while sliding into third base.

An MRI on Wednesday revealed the extent of the injury.

“I felt something pop, but it didn’t hurt,” said Rivera. “They said this is better than pulling a hamstring. It might take two or three weeks and they want me to be 100 percent.”

So Rivera’s injury looks to be a lot more serious than initially thought, and based on the way he’s been playing so far in 2012, the injury is probably a blessing in disguise because his replacements would be hard-pressed to play worse.

With that said, Bobby Abreu getting a majority of the time in left field frightens me for defensive reasons, so hopefully Van Slyke hits well right off the bat and gets a shot at regular playing time.

From 2011 on, at AA and AAA, Van Slyke has posted a .351/.428/.626/1.054 line against lefties and an equally impressive .343/.422/.591/1.013 line against righties, so he’s not really a platoon player. He’ll make 26 in two months and seems to have little left to prove in the minors, so this seems to be as good a time as any to give him a shot.

I think Don Mattingly is probably the best manager the Dodgers have had since Tommy Lasorda, but his management of yesterday’s game against the Giants exposed what is probably his most glaring weakness.

—–

In the bottom of the seventh inning, with the Dodgers down one run, the team basically hit the lottery by somehow managing to get Juan Rivera and James Loney to not make outs.

That brought up Juan Uribe in what was clearly a traditional sacrifice situation, especially considering that Uribe sucks. However, while he does have 60 sacrifice bunts in his career over 5121 plate appearances, he’s had only one sacrifice bunt in the last three seasons over the course of 941 plate appearances. As such, it’s safe to say that he’s not exactly accustomed to bunting.

Uribe executing a successful sacrifice is anything but a foregone conclusion, then you add that you’re actually lessening your chances of scoring runs by bunting, and it’s just an overall terrible decision.

Mattingly though, of course, called for the bunt anyway, and it worked out SPLENDIDLY.

Then, IN THE VERY NEXT INNING, the Dodgers were put in the exact same situation after a Bobby Abreu walk and a Dee Gordon bunt single. With Mark Ellis coming up and Matt Kemp on deck, Mattingly elected to bunt with Ellis, effectively setting things up perfectly for the Giants to avoid pitching to Kemp.

Ellis was a fine option to bunt, as he has executed 12 of them in his previous three seasons, but even so, it again lessened the Dodgers chances of scoring runs.

Predictably, after the successful bunt, the Giants walked Kemp to load the bases and brought in Javier Lopez to pitch to Andre Ethier.

On cue, Ethier did that, just like it was out of a script.

It would have been sad if everybody didn’t see it coming, but judging by the reaction on Twitter, we all did see it coming.

Sigh.

—–

The only possible positive thing that could have come out of this is Mattingly learning his lesson and swearing to stop doing this in the future.

Did he?

“Neither one of those decisions I would look back and change,” Mattingly said after the game.

Welp, alrighty then.

“They have to pick between Matt and Andre, and if I can get Andre up there with the bases loaded, I’ll take it every day. He’s leading the league in RBI,” Mattingly said.

“I’m still giving two guys a chance, but I don’t even need a hit. I just need to get a ball in the air,” Mattingly said. “I have two guys that are basically leading the league in RBI and they have to take their pick.”

“I wouldn’t really change anything. We just have to execute, that’s all,” Mattingly said. “First and second nobody out we have to try to get runners over and get them in scoring position. With Mark [Ellis], I do it all the time.”

Yes, I know you do it all the time.

THAT’S THE PROBLEM

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Dodgers have signed Bobby Abreu, formerly of the Angels. In a corresponding move, the team has demoted utility infielder Justin Sellers to the minors and will probably use Jerry Hairston Jr. at shortstop.

The Angels will be paying Abreu’s 2012 salary, and speculation is that the Dodgers will be paying Abreu a prorated league minimum salary.

The Angels released Abreu one week ago and will be on the hook for the remainder of his $9MM salary. Abreu’s new deal could be for as little as the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum.

So at the very least, he probably won’t be expensive.

—–

My initial thought? Wow, wonderful. Any time you get the chance to platoon Juan Rivera and Abreu in what should be an elite offensive position in left field, you’ve absolutely got to do it.

With that said, it doesn’t seem like it will be much of a platoon, at least if Bill Shaikin is correct.

Abreu would not fit with #Dodgers or any other NL team except as a PH. He can’t play defense regularly any more.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 28, 2012

Seems he’ll see limited action in left field and be the primary bat off the bench.

—–

Now the main question on the minds of fans is why wasn’t Adam Kennedy released instead of having Sellers sent down. Well, the sad reality is that Abreu might not be much better than Kennedy.

Kennedy projects to hit .252/.305/.358/.663 the rest of the season, according to ZiPS. Once a plus defender at second base, Kennedy has now been reduced to playing fringe defense at first base, second base, and third base.

Abreu? Well, he’s on a four-year OPS decline (.843/.825/.787/.717), and ZiPS projects him to hit .243/.333/.382/.716 the rest of the way. Better with the bat, but not a gigantic gap between the two. Defensively, Abreu has been worth -76.3 runs according to UZR and -47 runs according to DRS over his career, coming out to around -8.4 runs UZR per 150 games and -5.2 runs DRS per 150 games. In simpler terms, he’s a shitty defensive player.

If I give Abreu ~100 PA for the remainder of 2012, he comes out to being worth ~1.3 runs with the bat, ~3.3 runs replacement level, ~-0.8 runs position adjustment, ~-0.8 runs on the bases, and ~-1.1 runs defensively. A total of ~1.9 runs or ~0.2 WAR.

At this stage in his career, he’s basically a well below average player whose only redeeming quality left is being able to take a walk more often than most.

—–

So basically, Kennedy can’t hit, but has defensive versatility and is competent with the glove. Abreu is a better hitter, but not by as much as you’d think, and he’s terrible with the glove.

Given that Kennedy’s current role is essentially that of a pinch hitter, I would think/hope Abreu is more valuable to the Dodgers. However, if they start to play Abreu in the outfield against every righty, it could get ugly, not so much at the plate, but for the Dodgers pitching staff.

—–

Kennedy is bad and he deserves all the criticism thrown his way, but the reality is that, depending on the role, Abreu might be even worse.

It all leaves me to wonder why the Dodgers can’t ever do better on the bench (Mark Sweeney/Garret Anderson/Mark Loretta/Eugenio Velez), because while Kennedy hasn’t been the answer, I don’t think Abreu is the thump off the bench the team is looking for either.