The Dodgers outrighted both Blake Hawksworth and Matt Angle to AAA yesterday.

Neither move is shocking nor particularly noteworthy, but it’s important nonetheless because it frees up a couple of spots on the 40-man roster that has to be set for the Rule 5 Draft by next month.

Angle did little for the team both on the field and off the field besides causing Dodger fans to ask each other constantly why he’s on the 40-man. Blake’s greatest contribution to the Dodgers was introducing us to his sister, Erin Hawksworth, and assisting in ditching Ryan Theriot. Well, that and calling Matt Kemp a fatty on Twitter.

Chad Billingsley is back on the 15-day DL for the second time this season, and once again it’s due to right elbow soreness. Bills had an MRI that revealed inflammation and will have further tests once the inflammation has subsided.

Chad left his last start early after feeling something in the elbow on a pitch. He had been on quite the run since returning from his first elbow injury, and will be replaced in the rotation by newly-acquired Josh Beckett.

—–

Shane Victorino was scratched from Saturday’s game due to tightness in his back. Dylan Hernandez reports there may be some hip tightness as well, though the club only reported the back issue. Shane returned to the starting lineup on Sunday.

—–

Ted Lilly, rehabbing with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, felt “something … in his back or something”, according to Don Mattingly, and will have his next scheduled start skipped.

—–

Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers highly-paid Cuban import, was out of the lineup for a few games due to a bruised right heel, according to the Quakes official Twitter page. He returned to bang out four hits on Sunday though, so he should be fine.

—–

Matt Guerrier continues rehabbing in Rancho.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is done for the season, as he’s scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing left hip.

—–

Blake Hawksworth had arthroscopic shoulder surgery and is done for the year.

—–

Within the last two weeks, Chris Withrow, Chris Reed, Matt Wallach, and Angelo Ponte have all spent time on the 7-day DL, while Kazuya Takano was placed on the 60-day DL.

While Matt Kemp figures to be ready by the end of the month, not much else is going right on the injury front.

Matt Guerrier has been shut down in his rehab attempt due to pain, and surgery is now an option.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, on the disabled list since April 19 with elbow tendinitis, has stalled in his rehabilitation and said the most likely course of action is to shut down completely until his pain is gone.

When a platelet-rich plasma injection failed to resolve his discomfort, Guerrier two weeks ago decided to try to pitch through it. But he was discouraged after a Wednesday bullpen session in which he said he pitched better than he felt.

“It’s not responding as well as I’d like after two bullpens,” said Guerrier. “It’s very frustrating, so up and down and back and forth. It feels good one day, the next day I can’t play catch. The turning point was a couple weeks ago, and I thought I could push through it.”

Guerrier said among the options are exploratory surgery (about which he said, “I don’t think any of us think that’s the case.”), another injection or complete rest.

“Rest is the more likely bet,” he said.

Well then, I guess it wasn’t a fabricated injury to solve a roster dilemma after all, huh?

Fortunately for the team, the bullpen is a strength and they can probably ride out the loss of Guerrier even though it would be far better to have him back.

In other reliever news, Blake Hawksworth might be returning sooner than later, as he finally seems to be on the road to recovery.

Injured Dodgers reliever Blake Hawksworth, who underwent two elbow operations earlier this year, will continue his comeback on Thursday when he makes his first appearance in an intrasquad game at the club’s Camelback Ranch-Glendale complex.

Hawksworth, who spent all of last year with the Dodgers, underwent what should have been relatively minor arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow on Jan. 11 to remove a bone spur and scar tissue. But a post-surgical infection developed that required a second cleansing procedure and powerful antibiotics, setting back his recovery.

At the rate players are dropping, there’s a chance the Dodgers will need him to contribute at some point this season.

—–

Unfortunately, now Justin Sellers is hurting and headed for an MRI.

Just when it looked like the Dodgers were getting healthy, infielder Justin Sellers scratched from Wednesday’s lineup with numbness in his right leg. He will have an MRI exam on Thursday.

Sellers, who was set to start at third base, was replaced in the lineup by Adam Kennedy.

Sellers said the injury could have occurred when he crashed into the stands making a highlight-reel catch of a Miguel Montero foul ball last week at Dodger Stadium.

“I know I played after that and I don’t know if it happened then and got worse. I don’t know,” said Sellers. “It could have happened that way, I don’t know for sure. I do know for sure I was beat up for a couple of days, so it definitely could have been from that.”

Sellers said he’s able to swing a bat, throw and run straight ahead. But when he reaches to make a backhand stop with his glove, “I feel a pinch and a tingle,” he said.

If he’s out for a while, the Dodgers might not have a choice but to turn to Aaron Miles.

You know what? I honestly prefer that option to have Adam Kennedy as a starter. Yikes.

Speaking of middle infielder injuries, even the Dodgers sound a bit pessimistic about Mark Ellis‘ status.

Injured Dodgers second baseman Mark Ellis isn’t out of the hospital yet, or out of the woods. He will be sidelined a minimum of six weeks, possibly longer.

It will take six weeks before Ellis can return just from the two operations on his injured left leg to relieve pressure from swelling.

Still unknown is the condition of Ellis’ left knee and ankle in the wake of being upended by St. Louis baserunner Tyler Greene on Friday night. The club suspects one of the joints, if not both, is injured.

Trainer Sue Falsone said Ellis winced when his leg was flexed, but his ankle and knee became secondary when the pressure increased in his leg at the point of contact near the upper left shin.

After undergoing an emergency fasciotomy to relieve the pressure, a procedure that likely saved his leg, Ellis had a long incision sewn closed on Tuesday. Manager Don Mattingly said Ellis is expected to remain hospitalized until Thursday. Ellis will initially be on crutches.

Sounds like six weeks is more like the minimum time required just to be able to get back on his feet again, much less recover and play at the level he was at previously. Additionally, it certainly sounds like they expect ligament damage in either or both the ankle and knee.

Disappointing, but hope for the best, I suppose.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is the epitome of an under-appreciated fireman in the pen, putting out any fire, no matter the size, intensity, or probability for continuation.

Pitching full-time for just about three years, the 24-year-old fireballer fanned an out-of-this-world 16.10 batters per nine innings last season. Yes, he walked a few too many (4.36), but he has plenty of time to improve his control, especially since he’s still learning  to be a pitcher.

A 1.74 FIP, 2.06 tERA, 1.59 SIERA, and 1.04 WHIP are just nails, and Kenley handled both righties and lefties with ease (.156/.264/.200/.464 and .163/.269/.194/.463, respectively). His year was even more impressive when you consider two things: he had three atrocious outings that skewed already amazing numbers, and he battled injury and a heart murmur (which reoccurred this Spring but doesn’t appear to be serious).

—–

Kenley should always be used in the most pressing situation, not in your conventional ninth inning, three-run-lead save situation. Bring him in to face the heart of the opponent’s lineup with the game close regardless of whether it’s the seventh or eighth or ninth. That’s what firemen do: they put out the most dangerous fires.

Oh, and just for kicks, let’s quickly look at his July and September from last year:

July – 10 IP, 6 Baserunners, 17 K/4 BB, 0 HR

September – 13.2 IP, 11 Baserunners, 32 K/3 BB, 0 HR

Just sick.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2011 as just another arm in the Dodgers pool of pitchers. He closed out the campaign as the closer, and with many fans perceiving him to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Guerra is good, but not great, and he’s the closer by virtue of everybody else before him in 2011 being hurt and/or terrible.

Guerra’s minor league career was solid, with a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. He debuted in May, and proceeded to put up a two-month period featuring a shiny ERA and weak peripherals (2.35 in 15.1 innings, with 9 K, 5 BB, and 22 baserunners allowed). Oddly enough, he posted a .327 BABIP against during this time.

The next three months don’t do much to tell us how dominant Guerra could ever be, as he allowed 36 baserunners in 31.1 innings. He walked 13, allowed two homers, and fanned 29 in this time frame. Again, not atrocious numbers, but nothing to get overly excited about, especially considering his BABIP in this period was .232 against.

—–

Guerra, at just 26 years old, is definitely a guy I’d like to have in the pen. He has upside, is cheap, and has shown the ability in the minors, and for stretches of time in the bigs, to miss bats. In fact, I want a guy like him to be the closer while the better pitcher – Jansen – is placed in higher leverage situations and asked to get the opponent’s better offensive players out

I just don’t want Guerra, based off of the outdated Saves statistic, to get more credit than Kenley. I’m a simple man with simple desires.

Scott Elbert

Heading into 2011 with the reputation as an injury-prone, command lacking, questionable makeup having potential bust, Scott Elbert ended the year by cementing himself as a fixture in the Dodgers remade pen. Taking over the left-handed reliever role from the also injury-riddled Hong Chih Kuo, Elbert fanned 9.18 per nine innings while issuing 3.78 BB/9 IP, an improvement on his small sample size MLB career and lengthier minor league tenure.

Elbert has always had great stuff and posted big strikeout numbers in the minors, but could never get a footing in The Show. He was only given 26.1 innings in his previous three stints with the big league club to impress in, and certainly didn’t, but the potential was always there if he could harness his stuff and stay healthy.

—–

With that great promise coming to fruition in ’11, and room to still grow and improve, Scott will be expected to shut down lefties, who only hit a putrid .191/.267/.227/.494 against him last year. Elbert can certainly hold his own against righties (.255/.344/.328/.672 in 2011), but like most southpaws, he’s much, much better against his hitting brethren. Elbert will probably be the only lefty in the pen to start 2012, and with upside and talent, his future in Los Angeles is finally clear.

Ned Colletti’s Motley Crew Of Veteran Goodness

Mike MacDougal is back on a guaranteed (!) one-year deal following a shiny ERA, terrible everything else season. In 57 innings that had other teams frothing at the mouth, Mike whiffed just 6.47 per nine while issuing 4.58 free passes each nine he took the mound.

But hey, he had a 2.02 ERA and was an experienced vet. That totally makes up for the 4.33 tERA, inability to miss bats, and the taking up of a roster spot that would be better served on Josh Lindblom.

—–

Matt Guerrier … exists. 6.78 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.43 FIP, and all.

—–

Todd Coffey received a guaranteed one-year deal, and coming off of a 3.41 FIP season, he could actually be useful if used against righties only. Coffey was death to right-handers in 2011, allowing just a .193/.250/.255/.505 slash line against while whiffing three times as many as he walked. Of course, conversely, lefties murdered him, mashing to the tune of a .338/.404/.416/.820 line, and they drew nine walks while only going down swinging 11 times.

So yeah. Use him against righties, and never let him try to sprint his guts out to face Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman or even Juan Pierre‘s limp bat, for that matter.

All of that said, would I have signed Coffey? No. But I’m not Ned Colletti.

—–

Ronald Belisario is back! After he serves a suspension for a drug-related incident, that is. He’ll almost never be able to replicate his BABIP-fueled 2009 where he fanned over 8.0/9 IP, but hey, another bullpen arm could never hurt.

Granted, he’s out of options, so when he does return, someone has to go, and anyone not named MacDougal should not be replaced by Belisario. Heck, not even Coffey, who’s been pretty decent against righties for a long time.

But seriously. Get rid of MacDougal.

—–

Blake Hawksworth, once he returns from injury, must be on the 25-man roster.

Why? Because his sister is Erin Hawksworth.

Enough said.

What happens this week?

MLB owners will vote on the three finalists, most likely Tuesday. Approval of all three is expected to be a formality.

Then what?

McCourt and his advisers hold a modified auction, behind closed doors, most likely starting Wednesday. The goal is to pick a winner this week and close the transaction by April 30, the day he must pay his ex-wife $131 million in a divorce settlement.

A relief to everybody involved, surely.

As far as the remaining bidders go, what about Stan Kroenke‘s involvement with the NFL?

If Kroenke buys the Dodgers, would he move the Rams back to L.A.?

Not right away, and maybe not ever. The NFL controls the Los Angeles market, so Kroenke would be in violation of the league’s cross-ownership rules as soon as he bought the Dodgers. The NFL let him transfer ownership of his two Denver teams to his son, but the league has declined to assure MLB that Kroenke could own the Dodgers and the Rams in separate markets, or that the Rams could move to L.A.

Kroenke would not need the Rams in L.A. to launch a regional sports network centered on the Dodgers. His Denver cable channel features the Nuggets and Avalanche.

The NFL has long coveted the Dodger Stadium parking lot as the site for a football stadium. However, the NFL would be reluctant to approve a stadium there if McCourt retained ownership of the property, according to a person familiar with the league’s thinking.

Daniel Kaplan of SportsBusiness Journal says the NFL would move quickly on a cross ownership ruling.

Goodell on Kroenke and LA, says league considers LA league market. Says if kroenke owns the dodgers it would raise cross ownership issues

Goodell says he told bud selig league would move quickly to decide kroenke cross ownership issue

As a fan of the St. Louis Rams, this would be sort of awesome if it happens, but reading between the lines, it doesn’t seem all that likely.

Getting back to the bidders, Shaikin provides positive news on Steven Cohen.

If Cohen is a major player in hedge funds, how concerned is MLB about the ongoing federal investigation into insider trading in that industry?

Cohen was cleared in an MLB background check. Although four of his current or former employees have been accused of insider trading, neither Cohen nor his company has been charged or indicted.

Ron Geffner, a former federal prosecutor and securities investigator, said there can be no certainty about the results of an ongoing probe. However, he said, the investigation has gone on for several years, and the involvement of four of Cohen’s hundreds of employees does not in itself make a case against Cohen.

“If the government had a strong case, they would salivate at the opportunity to bring an action against a high-profile person,” said Geffner, a partner at the New York law firm Sadis and Goldberg.

Well that’s good news, given that he’s the favorite, according to everybody. Molly Knight included.

Handicap guesstimating Dodgers ownership race: Cohen group 1:2, Magic Johnson group 3:1, Kroenke 8:1.

I’m coming to terms with it, slowly.

—–

Jerry Sands was sent down, which was expected.

Jerry Sands, who followed up a huge September with a disappointing Spring Training, was optioned to the Minor Leagues by the Dodgers on Tuesday.

Although Sands sent a game-winning single through the hole at shortstop to give the Dodgers a 4-3 win over the White Sox on Monday, it raised his average only to .158. It was only his second RBI in 38 spring at-bats. He had 12 strikeouts and a .184 slugging percentage.

Josh Fields couldn’t be reached for comment as he is currently doing back flips.

Jamey Wright has been signed by the team to fill a bullpen spot, with Blake Hawksworth moving to the 60-day DL, and John Grabow exercising his out-clause.

The Dodgers on Tuesday confirmed the signing of non-roster pitcher Jamey Wright and created space on the 40-man roster by moving right-handed reliever Blake Hawksworth to the 60-day disabled list.

Hawksworth is recovering slowly from two operations — the initial one in January to clean out his right elbow and another three weeks later to address a staph infection.

The Dodgers guaranteed Wright’s contract having informed left-hander John Grabow, another non-roster invitee, that he would not make the club. He exercised an out clause Monday and was granted his release.

Jamey Wright.

Career 5.05 FIP and 4.67 SIERA.

Just saying.

Dodgers pitcher Ted Lilly’s recurring stiff neck is more serious than originally believed and his status for the first series of the regular season is uncertain.

It begins.

Nate Eovaldi time?

In other injury news, infielder Justin Sellers is “60 percent” healed from a skin irritation, Mattingly said, and might be back on the field Monday.

His roster chances have improved with Jerry Hairston Jr.‘s throwing problems/injured shoulder.

And pitcher Blake Hawksworth, who has missed all of Spring Training with an elbow infection following surgery, is likely to be placed on the 60-day emergency disabled list because he still hasn’t resumed a throwing program and will need at least six weeks to be game ready when he does.

John Grabow just thanked whatever god he prays to, because I think he may have just made the team, as the Dodgers have been pining for a second lefty in the pen since before Spring Training. Jamey Wright is another possibility, but I think* they keep Josh Lindblom instead.

*More like hope.

Spring Training is here, which means all other sports matter less, and wow, there’s way too much news out of the Los Angeles Dodgers camp already.

=====

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Clayton Kershaw will start on Opening Day, which is basically the biggest Captain Obvious moment of the season.

Then Matt Kemp told the media that he doesn’t want the 2011 NL MVP Award if Ryan Braun is suspended.

“I would want to win by them voting me,” Kemp said. “I wouldn’t want them to just, ‘Oh, this person did that so how about we just give the award to this person?’ I don’t think it should work that way.

“If it is that way, then it should be a vacant award for 2011, no one should win the MVP award in the National League.”

Kemp said he hopes Braun is vindicated.

“I know Braun,” he said. “We’ve always been cool. We’ve been friends. He’s been one of my favorite players in the big leagues. I hope it’s not true.”

Kemp has handled this situation extremely well up to this point and that just cements it.

It wasn’t all rainbows and kittens though, as Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported that Blake Hawksworth won’t be ready to start the season because a second operation was necessary to clean up his elbow.

—–

As far as roles and playing time go, Eric Stephen of True Blue LA has a ton of news.

“Javy, to me, didn’t do anything last year to say he shouldn’t be that guy,” manager Don Mattingly said on Tuesday. “More than anything, Kenley was saying ‘Hey I can do that too’ by the way he pitched. It’s a good problem for us to have.”

“Javy has been here one year,” said Mattingly. “It’s a competition, you still have to perform. There have been a lot of guys in their first year were really good and struggled the next year. Kenley was a perfect example, as he wasn’t himself [to start 2011] that he was the year before. It took him a half a season with little problems here and there, and he was in the minors for a little bit, but next thing you know he emerged back to what we had seen the year before.”

Javy Guerra will be the closer over Kenley Jansen to start the season, and while Jansen is the better pitcher, I don’t have a problem with this, as it gives the team better flexibility in regards to Jansen’s usage.

“It’s not like he’s a bad guy, or you don’t like him. But to this point he’s been tough to count on,” Mattingly said of relief pitcher Ronald Belisario, who is here in camp, but was not available for reporters as he left for a dental appointment. “It’s a step in the right direction that he’s here.”

The much maligned Ronald Belisario was actually there in person in real life at Spring Training and it’s important because if he looks anything like his old self, Hawksworth’s injury might have just opened up a spot.

—–

In the world of position players, both starting and backup roles are at stake.

Jerry Sands doesn’t necessarily need to win an everyday spot in the lineup to make the opening day roster, but Mattingly said he needs to have a certain number of plate appearances to justify a spot on the big league roster, as the club wants Sands to play nearly every day. While Mattingly shied away from committing to a plan of sitting Andre Ethier and Loney against southpaws, the manager said that figuring out a way to get Sands enough at-bats will be one of his projects in camp.

I have a way to get Jerry Sands at bats: don’t play Juan Rivera.

The backup shortstop will be Jerry Hairston Jr., as Mattingly wants to keep Juan Uribe at third base. Should Dee Gordon go down for any extended period of time, the club would turn to Justin Sellers.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is a fine utility infielder, but that paragraph makes me want to barf. Juan Uribe at third all the time and Justin Sellers is the backup in case Dee Gordon doesn’t take off like they expect.

Could be bad.

Finally, it was announced that Gordon will hit first, while Kemp hits third.

I’ll explore this later, but this could be a bad idea. Gordon got better later in the season, but it was a tiny sample size, and as a whole, he has always struggled at taking a walk. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, putting your best hitter in the three hole is not optimal either.

MSTI: I don’t know where he found this, but this is definitely the best thing Javy Guerra and James Loney do all year even if they finish 1/2 in the MVP race.

Dodger Thoughts: None of the potential Dodgers ownership groups liked the Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw contracts? Uh…yikes.

Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Jon Weisman blogger profile.

—–

Baseball Prospectus: Kevin Goldstein names his top 101 prospects. The only Dodger on the list is Zach Lee at 70.

—–

MLB Trade Rumors: Los Angeles Dodgers have four players who are out of options for 2012: A.J. Ellis, Ramon Troncosco, Blake Hawksworth, and Scott Elbert.

Could mean trouble for Troncoso and Hawksworth, but the other two shouldn’t have an issue.

—–

Baseball Nation: The ten worst swings of 2011. It’s amazing.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Reliever Blake Hawksworth had surgery on Wednesday to remove bone spurs and scar tissue. Probably going to be a bit late to Spring Training.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw was named the 2011 Sportsman Of The Year by the Los Angeles Sports Council. Well deserved.

—–

Los Angeles Times: Tom Barrack‘s interest in purchasing the Dodgers confirmed.

Tom Barrack, a former USC rugby player who launched a real estate fund that has expanded into international sports and entertainment investments, is interested in pursuing the Dodgers.

Barrack heads Colony Capital, a Santa Monica firm that controls $34 billion in assets, according to Forbes. Barrack’s interest was confirmed by two people familiar with the matter but not authorized to comment.

Don’t know anything about him.

Los Angeles Times: Alan Casden, whose name was thrown in the ring earlier, wants in on the Dodgers.

In 2003, Beverly Hills developer Alan Casden tried to buy the Dodgers from Fox. The company ultimately sold the team to Frank McCourt.

Casden now would like to buy the team from McCourt. And, with its legal hostilities against the Dodgers ceased, Fox would like to buy back part of the team.

That note about Fox wanting a minority stake in ownership frightens me.

—–

Baseball Nation: Yeah, MLB‘s policy on baseball videos absolutely blows.

Until then — and this is the important part — how does the availability of such a game do anything but help Major League Baseball?

The existence of a grainy, straight-from-Betamax video of the 1980 Giants isn’t something that’s going to make me say, “Well, so long MLB.tv subscription! Joe Pettini videos are online!” It’s something that I’ll send to my dad with a note asking if he remembers when Pettini gave me an autograph that one time. It’s something that will make me look up Pettini’s stats on Baseball Reference. Say, did you know that the only home run in Pettini’s career came against Willie Hernandez, future Cy Young winner?

It would keep me engaged with baseball-related activities in the winter. It would allow me to share my memories of the game.

But until MLB Advanced Media realizes that a draconian zero-tolerance policy is something that only made sense in 2000 before they could figure out a better policy, I’m keeping this guy’s YouTube channel to myself. If you really want a link, wear a carnation on your lapel, and meet me in front of the library at noon. I can’t tell you which library. That would give away too much.

Just go there and wait. And wait. And wait. Any minute now, and you’ll get to enjoy completely insignificant baseball history that isn’t available anywhere else at any price. Keep waiting. Keeeeeeeep waiting …

Even if they won’t allow videos on YouTube, at least make videos embeddable. They can still run ads on those clips and everything.

FanGraphs: How does a hitter’s power age? Not well, apparently.

Matt Kemp had an awesome year this year, obviously, and at 26 it’s tempting to continue drawing a straight line through his ISOs — he’ll hit more than 40 out next year, right? This research suggests that it’s likely the 26-year-old is on the wrong side of his power peak. 27-year-old Ryan Braun may see a power dip, and it might not have anything to do with his recent positive test. Look up and down last year’s qualified ISO leaderboard, and you’ll only see Stanton and the 23-year-old Justin Upton definitively on the correct side of their power peaks.

Some aspects of a hitter’s game do age like wine — he’ll walk more and strikeout less every year until he’s close to 30 years old at least. But power? Power ages like cheese. Don’t leave your slugger in the fridge past 26 years old, or you’ll see the mold spores beginning to form. Don’t throw it out (all cheese has some mold in it anyway), but remember these curves when projecting performance.

Surprising considering the long accepted age for power emergence was mid-to-late 20s.

Baseball Prospectus: Do AAAA players actually exist?

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that reliever Blake Hawksworth will have surgery on January 11th.

Dodgers reliever Blake Hawksworth is scheduled to undergo a minor surgical procedure Wednesday to remove scar tissue and shave down a bone spur in his right elbow.

Hawksworth is expected to be sidelined for four to six weeks. He should be pitching at some point in spring training and could be on the team’s opening-day roster, according to a team spokesman.

Mike Petriello wondered whether or not he was pitching hurt.

To be frank, I had the same immediate thought.

Upon further review though, it seems to primarily be normalization.

Click To Enlarge

Basically everything remains the same as far as his peripherals go except his BABIP, which was extraordinarily low in the first half.

Hawksworth is simply not as good as his first half and not as bad as his second half.

Boring but probably true.

During the 2010-2011 off-season, the Dodgers aimed to improve on what was an effective unit in 2010 (3.80 FIP/8th In MLB). With all their veteran relievers making their Los Angeles exit, the rest of the potential returning cast consisted primarily of pre-arbitration players making the major league minimum, with only Jonathan Broxton locked into a high paying salary for 2011. The predominantly untested nature of the bullpen didn’t sit well with the Dodgers, so they went out and re-signed Vicente Padilla as a reliever, avoided arbitration with Hong Chih Kuo, traded for Blake Hawksworth, gave Mike MacDougal and Lance Cormier minor league contracts, and made a long term commitment to Matt Guerrier.

While handing out millions to seemingly solid and steady veteran relievers is rarely going to play poorly in the media or among fans, they often prove to be unnecessary and costly additions to the roster. Now the Dodgers bullpen in 2011 has been quite effective as a whole, ranking 8th in the MLB in FIP at 3.58, but were the expensive veteran members all that important to the 2011 unit’s success?

-

*50% fWAR (FIP) & 50% rWAR (ERA)
*5,000,000 Dollars Per Win
*Salary Data From True Blue LA
*SV=Surplus Value

Guerra, Jansen, Elbert, Lindblom, and Troncoso are all pre-arbitration farm system arms who have combined for $11,134,000 in SV. MacDougal was given a minor league contract with a mere $500,000 major league option and netted the Dodgers $2,750,000 in SV. Hawksworth, despite his -$676,000 total, was acquired in a trade that rid the Dodgers of Ryan Theriot, who is currently putting up a 0.1 WAR at a $3,300,000 salary for a -$2,800,000 SV, so feel free to credit Hawksworth with that.

Guerrier was the big money free agent signing, and he was actually decently productive in 2011. Unfortunately, the only reason he clocks in at positive value is because of the deferred nature of his overall contract (4 Y/12 M), so he’ll have to get better in a hurry if he wants to continue breaking even. The more likely scenario is that it ends up being a neutral to poor overall transaction.

The four pitchers who rank the lowest happen to include three of the top bullpen salaries, with Broxton, Kuo, and Padilla combining for -$17,725,000 in SV. Also clocking in at the bottom of the pile is Cormier (-$4,050,000 SV), who inexplicably made $800,000 in the majors and was inexplicably allowed to pitch 13.2 innings before the Dodgers realized how terrible he was.

Overall, it’s quite clear where the value lies in the Dodgers pen, as the data demonstrates that the most productive and most valuable members of the 2011 bullpen have been the farm system arms, and more specifically, those making 500k and below, basically around the major league minimum.

-

While the status quo maintains that locking down relievers with track records of success to million dollar deals will lead to overall bullpen stability, it would do the Dodgers and their fans well going forward to remember that money spent hardly guarantees productivity and success, especially with a commodity as volatile as bullpen arms.

Over the course of the 2011 season, the Dodgers relief corps has proved that bullpen arms are indeed a fickle and fungible group, with production to be found from a multitude of sources, and that the most value out of the pen is commonly derived from those making the least. Sticking with cheap team controlled building blocks in the bullpen can be highly effective, and the money used to sign costly relievers can frequently be better used elsewhere.

—

Published @ True Blue LA as well.