Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

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Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Hits Of 2012

1. Adrian Gonzalez – +69.9%

Whenever you increase your team’s chances of winning by 69.9% with one swing of the bat, something must have gone right.

Well, it did.

It was the bottom of the ninth with one out and runners on first and second. The Dodgers trailed the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3.

Down to his last strike, A-Gon comes up gigantic with a walk-off double down the right field line off J.J. Putz.

2. Ivan De Jesus – 67.3%

THANK YOU J.J. PUTZ XOXOXO HUGS AND KISSES

Trailing 7-6 with runners on first and second and down to their last out, feeble hitting Ivan De Jesus came up and whacked a double over Chris Young‘s head in center to take the lead.

Much love to J.J. Putz.

3. Scott Van Slyke – 61.1%

Early in 2012, the season was full of “yeah, this team is winning the World Series if this kinda shit happens” moments, and this was certainly one of them.

Scott Van Slyke hit a three-run bomb with runners on first and second to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead after they trailed 5-3 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Even though it was only the seventh, it felt like a gigantic moment, right? WPA agrees.

4. Elian Herrera – 51.6%

So it’s the top of the eighth with two outs, the Dodgers trail 1-0 and Cliff Lee is just absolutely taking a dump down their throats, and, I mean, there’s runners on first and second but Elian Herrera or whoever is up, so it’s inning ove … HOLY SHIT! YES!!!

Shoutout to Juan Pierre.

5. Luis Cruz – 50.7%

Bottom of the sixth, two outs, runners on first and second (this is a theme), Dodgers trail the Cardinals 4-3, but 2012 phenom Luis Cruz is up and he absolutely bombs one into the bullpen to put the Dodgers up by two.

Bonus points for pimping it.

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Overall, the fact that there are five different players contributing here, and that four of the five are still basically unknowns to casual fans, speaks to how remarkable it was that the 2012 Dodgers even stayed in the playoff hunt throughout all the injuries and what not.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. Dee Gordon – 1.05
2. Elian Herrera – 0.93
3. Luis Cruz – 0.84
4. Juan Uribe – 0.77
5. Adrian Gonzalez – 0.72

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Yesterday, a slide by Paul Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks drew the ire of Jerry Hairston Jr., who was playing second base. Hairston wants Goldschmidt suspended for the slide, basically calling it dirty, and you can judge for yourself above.

The bad blood between the Dodgers and D-backs boiled again Wednesday after a late takeout slide of Los Angeles second baseman Jerry Hairston by Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt.

Hairston wasn’t seriously injured, but he took exception, calling the slide dirty and calling for Goldschmidt to be disciplined.

“He should be suspended. It’s totally unacceptable,” the 15-year veteran Hairston said about Goldschmidt, in his first full season in the Major Leagues. “He jumped over the bag to get to me. He was seven feet past the bag. It was terrible.”

Goldschmidt was called out by second-base umpire Manny Gonzalez but was not called for interfering with the Dodgers’ attempt to turn a double play.

“I didn’t realize he was upset until later,” Goldschmidt said. “My thinking is Justin hit that ground ball and they could possibly turn a double play, [so] go in there and break it up. Obviously you’re not trying to hurt anyone, but you’re in there trying to make it so he can’t get the throw off. Hopefully he’s all right.”

Hairston told a different story.

“Luckily I did everything right,” said Hairston, who spun and pulled his leg at impact. “When Upton hit me [on a fifth-inning double-play], it was totally clean. What Goldschmidt did was unacceptable. I looked at the video. It was atrocious. If Major League Baseball doesn’t suspend him, it’s unbelievable.

“The guy at first [Upton] should have been out for that. He [Goldschmidt] actually started the slide after the bag. He got me good. You know, play the game right. Major League Baseball says it watches every game. If they watched this game, he gets suspended. He’s a big part of their team, but he hasn’t been around the game long enough. He’s got to know better than that. He could have broken my leg.”

Some Dodgers suspected that Goldschmidt was motivated by a previous at-bat, when Dodgers reliever Javy Guerra took over for starter Stephen Fife with one out and a runner on first base in the fifth inning and drilled Goldschmidt in the shoulder with his first pitch.

As you all know by now, I’m not a fan of takeout slides or collisions in baseball, generally because they’re pointless and don’t prove anything.

As the rules currently stand though, there’s zero chance anything happens to Goldschmidt, and nothing should, because he was technically well within his rights to make the slide. Plus, he didn’t go in cleats up on his leg. However, one can see why Hairston would think it’s dirty, especially given it came after Goldschmidt getting hit with the pitch, as Goldschmidt quite clearly kicks his leg out at Hairston’s plant foot. I see some people arguing that it’s part of the slide, but please, if you’ve ever slid before, you’d know damn well you can control where the lead foot ends up.

Honestly, I think both sides are understandable. Goldschmidt was probably angry and wanted to take out his frustration on the Dodgers and did so legally, albeit a bit dirty. Hairston’s complaining stems from probably seeing his season flash before his eyes and because … well … it was a bit dirty.

Either way, I don’t have a problem with either player in this instance, but one thing’s for sure: it won’t be easing tensions between the two teams any time soon.

Allen Webster had a rough final three starts for the Chattanooga Lookouts in 2011. Some attributed it to fatigue because of a career-high in innings pitched (145), but when the 2012 season began, things were supposed to be back to normal.

Not so fast.

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Webster has struggled mightily this season — and it’s both concerning and perplexing.

Mike Newman of Scouting The Sally watched Webster’s April 26th start against Diamondbacks top prospect Trevor Bauer, and he had good things to say about him, at least early on in the start (questions courtesy of prospect whore and “Dugout Blues” podcast co-host, Jared Massey).

Outpitching Bauer RT @LADugout: @ScoutingtheSAL How’s Webster looking?

— Mike Newman (@ScoutingtheSAL) April 27, 2012

Good.

Sitting 94-96 with life RT @LADugout: @ScoutingtheSAL How’s Webster looking?

— Mike Newman (@ScoutingtheSAL) April 27, 2012

Also good (great, actually).

But then this happened:

Don’t get too excited. He’s falling apart in the 4th RT @LADugout: @ScoutingtheSAL Whoa, very good news. Thanks Mike.

— Mike Newman (@ScoutingtheSAL) April 27, 2012

He still managed to make it through five innings, but he didn’t have a good ending to his outing: 6 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 6 K.

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So, what the hell is wrong with the Dodgers second or third best prospect? It appears his mechanics are too clean.

John Manuel of Baseball America had this to say in a May 2nd chat when asked by a reader about Webster’s struggles:

“Thanks for the baton here Nathan. I just happened to talk to a scout about Webster this week who saw one of the outings you’re referencing, in the “got hit around” department. If I recall correctly, he thought the arm action almost was too clean, no deception, and hitters were getting great looks at Webster’s fastball. He was concerned because he’d seen Webster better in the past; doesn’t sound like it’s a matter of his pure stuff being down. David Paschall of the Chattanooga Times Free Press just wrote about pitching coach Chuck Crim wanting to speed up his tempo and improve his mound presence. I know the Dodgers think highly of Crim, so I’d trust Chuck to pull him out of it.”

Since that time though, Webster hasn’t fared any better:

3 G (2 GS), 0-1, 9 1/3 IP, 16 H, 14 R, 12 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 11.57 ERA

That is UGLY. So ugly that Webster actually relieved Ethan Martin on Tuesday night. I’d say that move could be to limit innings, but Webster hasn’t thrown more than six in any game this season (twice), and has thrown as few as 3 1/3 innings (twice).

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Looking at his peripherals, his walk, strikeout, and home run numbers are on par with his career averages:

2012: 7.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.14 K/BB, 0.3 HR/9
Career: 8.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.32 K/BB, 0.4 HR/9

Webster’s FIP is actually better this season than it was in 2011 at Chattanooga (3.65 to 4.05). His groundout-to-flyout ratio is a little lower than last season with the Lookouts (1.84 to 2.10), but it’s still a good rate.

These numbers would lead you to believe he’s been a lot better than his 7.27 ERA and 1.93 WHIP, but here we are on May 18th and Webster is still getting consistently rocked (at least he’s keeping the ball in the yard).

So besides the clean mechanics speculation, what gives?

Webster’s hits per nine innings is where things get scary. He’s allowing 13.8 H/9, which isn’t going to get the job done. When a guy gives up that many hits, it’s hard to say he’s been unlucky, but that’s what his .425 BABIP says.

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So overall, it’s been a number of things for Webster. His velocity and stuff seem to be just fine, which is a positive. However, he basically needs to work on being more deceptive, less hittable, and less unlucky. If he’s more deceptive, he becomes harder to hit, so those two should take care of each other, and his luck should regress to the mean eventually.

There’s still reason to have a lot of hope for the 22-year-old. With teammate Nate Eovaldi ahead of him in the pecking order, and guys like Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, and Ted Lilly signed through the 2013 season, there isn’t much pressure on Webster to be rushed to the majors. As such, he has time to develop and make adjustments, but the key with any prospect is to show progress, and he hasn’t adjusted to advanced ball yet.

Click To Enlarge

Decided to start this “feature” because sometimes I do unfortunately stumble into the comment sections at mainstream media sports sites and it’s truly amazing what I find there.

You can say it’s picking low hanging fruit, and it is, but I don’t give a shit because it’s hilarious to me.

Anyway, today’s gem, which you can see above, comes to us via Fox Sports in response to a Ken Rosenthal article about Don Mattingly.

Apparently Mattingly is actually an idiot, and Rosenthal is an even bigger idiot for writing about him, because the Arizona Diamondbacks were a far inferior team to the Los Angeles Dodgers, yet Kirk Gibson‘s squad won the NL West in 2011, something that was apparently all Mattingly’s fault.