Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

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Top Five David Carradine Choke Jobs Of 2012

1. Andre Ethier – -39.3%

Horrifying.

With the bases loaded and one down in the bottom of the eighth, and the Dodgers trailing the rival Giants 2-1, Andre Ethier comes up and … yeah.

…

2. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -34.1%

Nobody out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by a run, Jerry Hairston Jr. decides it’s a sweet time to ground into a double play while there’s runners on first and second, thus killing a massive opportunity.

3. Adam Kennedy – -33.6%

Second and third and one out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by one run, Adam Kennedy did what he did best in 2012: rolling over and chopping a ball to the right side.

Extra scorn for almost killing Matt Kemp.

4. Tony Gwynn Jr. – -29.1%

Just looking.

Down by a run in the bottom of the ninth with runners on second and third, Tony Gwynn Jr. needed to put the ball in play and give himself a chance. Instead, he did his best impersonation of a statue.

5. Mark Ellis – -25.7%

Bottom of the tenth and trailing by a run, the Dodgers put men on first and third with one out, but Mark Ellis … did that.

Bonus anger for doing it against Jonathan Papelbon.

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Commentary? So much fail.

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Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. A.J. Ellis – -1.62
2. Adam Kennedy – -1.14
3. Andre Ethier – -1.01
4. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -0.95
5. Shane Victorino – -0.37

Luis Cruz

I can safely say that I’m not the only one who had no idea who Luis Cruz was at the outset of the 2012 season. By the end of it, the once unknown 28-year-old journeyman had become a cult hero in Los Angeles. Heading into 2013, it appears he’ll not only hold down a roster spot, but be the Dodgers starting third baseman.

Now whether that’s something a team with a $200 million payroll should be doing, however, is another matter entirely. Others seem to be having difficulty wrapping their head around it as well, probably because heading into 2012, Cruz’s major-league career consisted of 169 plate appearances spread over three seasons and 56 games. He was atrocious at the dish in that limited sample size, and had been a career minor-leaguer, save for those small cups of coffee.

Following injuries to Dee Gordon (thumb) and Juan Uribe (playing baseball like he plays life), Cruz was called up in early-July and spent time at third, short, and second. Most of that time — 51 games and 48 starts — was at the hot corner, where he shined with the glove, posting a 6.6 UZR and a +8 on the DRS scale. He was very good with the leather overall, saving ~5.5 runs in total in 2012. His play at third was especially impressive considering he had never before manned the position in the bigs.

That last sentence is an important one with Cruz, because fans are quick to make judgments when they first see a player perform in The Show, and Cruz has become a savor in the eyes of many fans. If injuries don’t derail plans and we assume that he continues to flash the leather at third in 2013, Cruz can be an adequate starter for the Dodgers based on his defensive showing in 2012 alone. However, if Cruz’s defense proves to be a mirage, then his offense probably won’t cut it because it’s a strong candidate to regress. Yes, that’s still better than Uribe, who we’ll get to momentarily, but simply being better than Emo Juan isn’t enough to be a productive major-leaguer.

The main problems are that Cruz doesn’t walk (3% in 2012), has limited power (.134 ISO), and is just an average baserunner. Combine those factors with an inflated BABIP (.320), and he’s looking at a less impressive 2013 triple-slash. Oh, and he swings at just about everything, including a ridiculous 41.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared with a league average of just under 31%. That’s not a great indicator unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero talent-wise, and Cruz is obviously not (who is?).

Even for a guy who posted a ~2.3 WAR in 2012, given the rational concerns with him repeating that performance, a starting gig in 2013 is still a godsend. If the only options are starting Cruz or Uribe, then sure, Cruz is the easy choice, but his career minor-league line in 12 seasons and 1200+ plate appearances of .261/.296/.394/.690 speaks volumes to me, and it’s a far greater indicator of what to expect going forward than 296 plate appearances this past season.

Cruz deservedly has a spot on the team, but it probably should be as a bench player, not a starter. And given where he came from prior to the Dodgers, that’s not a diss, but rather a compliment that he’s earned his keep.

Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe managed to make it through an entire season — in which he hit an unseemly .191/.258/.284/.542 with a .245 wOBA — without being cut. He spent some time on the DL, but more of it riding the pine, going weeks down the stretch without seeing the field.

Spending any significant amount of time on him is a nauseating notion, so let’s just quickly wrap this up and note that Uribe is heading into the final year of the atrocious deal Ned Colletti handed out to him prior to the 2011 campaign. Yes, he still swings at everything, is averse to drawing a walk, and will probably still find work somewhere because he can handle himself in the field, saving ~3.7 runs in 2012.

Whatever.

Adam Kennedy

Adam Kennedy also found himself at third last season, starting 25 games and appearing in 39. He’s pretty much the opposite of Uribe, as he’s bad with the leather (about a run in debt to the Dodgers overall) but mediocre with the lumber (.262/.345/.357/.702 with a .310 wOBA overall). And by mediocre, I mean bad, but better than anyone actually expected him to be.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

One last player of note to find himself at third last season was Jerry Hairston Jr., who started 23 games and appeared in 32 at third.

He swung the bat well when playing there, to the tune of a .315/.344/.435/.779 line in just under 100 plate appearances. Perhaps most impressively though, he got off to a ridiculously hot start there defensively, which helped him rate well with the glove (2.6 UZR and a DRS of +2) even though he did struggle later in 2012.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Mark Ellis

Signed to a back-loaded two-year deal in the off-season, Mark Ellis only played in 110 games after nearly losing a leg on the play you see above, posting a ~2.7 WAR in the process. 35 now and turning 36 years of age next summer, Ellis can’t afford to lose anything physically beyond what Father Time was already taking away from him, particularly when so much of his value is derived from his glove. At the end of the day, his health might be the biggest factor in his productivity.

After posting just a .248/.288/.346/.634 line with a putrid .282 wOBA in 2011 (Ellis did finish strong though after moving to the friendly air of Coors Field), he swung the bat better in 2012, posting a .258/.333/.364/.697 slash line with a .312 wOBA. That’s still not very good offensively, but as a second baseman, Ellis isn’t paid to hit like Matt Kemp. As long as he can field the position to the degree he did in 2012 (~6.9 runs saved) and has throughout his career, he can be a solid complementary regular. Although who knows, if Don Mattingly didn’t ask him and every other number-two hitter for the Dodgers to bunt so much, maybe Ellis would have recorded a few more base-knocks.

#StopBunting, Donnie Baseball.

Anyways, slated to make $5.25 million this upcoming campaign, with a club option worth almost $6 million clams for 2014, Ellis will need to stave off old age for at least another year. Speaking of the effects of old age, the major leg injury he suffered could plausibly have had an effect on his performance at the plate (.273/.373/.364/.737 pre-injury, .251/.314/.364/.678 post-injury), though his second-half slide could also be attributed to the fact that Ellis isn’t and hasn’t ever been a great hitter.

On the bright side, Ellis did walk twice as much in ’12 as he did in ’11 (8.6/4.2 BB%), which would come in handy as the number two-hitter in front of The Bison, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Hanley Ramirez. Well, it would if, you know, Donnie didn’t take the bat out of his hands constantly to pointlessly give up an out.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

Subbing in for an injured Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr. put up a .231/.301/.330/.631 slash line in 30 games at the position before succumbing to a season-ending hip injury which required surgery. Overall, Hairston hit .273/.342/.387/.729 with a .320 wOBA.

The Swiss Army knife of players signed a back-loaded two-year deal of his own, and will make $3.75 million in 2013 while serving as a super-sub and right-handed bat with a bit of pop off the bench.

Other “Notables”

The Dodgers had a total of eight guys suit up at second, none of whom beyond Ellis and Hairston really necessitate any mention. However, it’s worth noting that Ivan De Jesus is no longer with the team, and yes, Adam Kennedy really did spend the whole season with the Dodgers, so all that wasn’t a nightmare (well, it was a nightmare, but a real one). I’ll say this for Kennedy: he walked a surprising and inordinate amount of times, at least based on his career numbers (11.4% in 2012, 6.6% for his career).

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw may need surgery on his right hip and he could miss not only the rest of this season but the start of next season as well, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

If Kershaw must undergo surgery to repair his ailing right hip, he isn’t expected to be pitching in the major leagues until the middle of May, according to people familiar with his condition who were not authorized to speak publicly about it.

Kershaw’s decision on whether to have an operation will be made after Kershaw receives a second opinion from Dr. Bryan Kelly on Tuesday in New York. Kershaw was unable to make his scheduled start for the Dodgers on Sunday.

The team fears he may have a torn labrum that would require surgery.

My opinion on Clayton is the same as it is regarding Matt Kemp: the team should shut them both down. 2012 is not the last year baseball will be played, and this team will be better next year simply by having some of these new pieces on the roster to begin the season. Their future years of service are far more important than a single stretch run in a season that has seen the Dodgers somehow stay in the race despite the unluckiness of multiple serious injuries to vital cogs.

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Scott Elbert was speculated to be returning as soon as Tuesday, but he’ll be out for the season and is set to undergo elbow surgery due to persistent problems.

Left-hander Scott Elbert is scheduled to undergo a season-ending operation Wednesday to clean up his throwing elbow.

The surgery will be performed by team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Elbert is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.

Elbert last pitched Aug. 26. The next day, he was put on the disabled list for the second time this season.

Elbert pitched a simulated game Friday.

“The next day, he went out to play catch and it was back, same thing,” Manager Don Mattingly said. “So we knew he was done.”

As unfair as it might be, Paco Rodriguez now becomes a key piece in the bullpen despite being in college to start the year.

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Kenley Jansen is likely to return on Tuesday. Jansen’s doctors have cleared him to stop taking blood-thinners.

If he’s back to normal then he’ll be an asset even if there’s initial rust, but something rubs me the wrong way about risking anything in regards to this problem. After all, we’re talking about a guy’s life here, screw baseball.

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Chad Billingsley‘s elbow is progressing well and he’s slated to start a throwing program in the coming weeks.

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Ted Lilly, rehabbing a shoulder injury, will have arthroscopic surgery on his pitching shoulder. According to head trainer Sue Falsone, he will be ready for Spring Training in 2013, the final year of a three-year contract.

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Dee Gordon was reinstated after missing 50 games and spending a couple of months on the 60-day DL with a torn ligament in his right thumb. Dee recently completed a rehab stint in Albuquerque.

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Room was made for Dee on the 40-man when the team placed Adam Kennedy on the 60-day DL with a groin strain.

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Don Mattingly has declared Javy Guerra likely out for the year, as was suspected.

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In minor-league injury news, Blake Smith, Gustavo Gomez, Brandon Martinez, Luis Vasquez, Steve Cilladi, Chris O’Brien, Angelo Ponte, Jharel Cotton, Sawil Gonzalez, Francisco Villa, and Matt Laney all landed on either the 7-day or 60-day DL.

Chad delved into it further here, but the Dodgers have retained the services of Ned Colletti with a multi-year extension. They have also let it be known that Don Mattingly won’t be going anywhere.

Mattingly I can live with (but please, for the love of every God ever worshiped, stop bunting, especially with A.J. Ellis), though my preference has always been Tim Wallach. My feelings on Colletti are well-known by now.

#CollettiFail

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Dee Gordon was reinstated from the 60-day DL after a rehab stint with the Albuquerque Isotopes following a torn ligament in his thumb that felled him for over 50 games. He’ll take over Adam Kennedy‘s spot on the 40-man roster, as Kennedy was placed on the 60-day DL with a groin strain.

Gordon’s playing time will almost certainly be relegated to a pinch-running role barring injury to an infielder.

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Elian Herrera was recalled from the ‘Topes. He’ll take over Kennedy’s role of being, well, a bench piece we all dread to see play.

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Stephen Fife was also brought back up from AAA for his second stint with the big league club. He’ll add depth to the pen and could end up permanently replacing Clayton Kershaw in the rotation if Kershaw’s injury is serious.

Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his last start due to a hip injury, for which he received a cortisone shot. His start was taken by Joe Blanton. Clayton hopes to return and start on Tuesday.

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Kenley Jansen, barring any unforeseen setback, will pitch again this season before undergoing offseason surgery on his heart. He won’t pitch within the next ten days – at the least – as he waits for his blood-thinner medication to leave his system.

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Chad Billingsley had another platelet injection in his right elbow before seeing his season end as he was placed on the 60-day DL. Paco Rodriguez was called up and took Bills’ roster spot. Now all that remains is whether or not he ends up needing surgery. Bills will resume throwing in two weeks, after tests revealed a partial tear of the UCL in the aforementioned right elbow.

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Randy Choate took a grounder off of his pitching hand but should be fine, as he said a couple of fingers were struck but no major damage came from it. With both Scott Elbert and Ted Lilly rehabbing and Paco a rookie, the Dodgers are short on southpaws in the pen, making Choate’s continued health vital.

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Javy Guerra was placed on the 15-day DL with an oblique strain, and there’s a real chance his season is over.

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Adam Kennedy injured his groin and is likely out for the season, saying he “felt a pop.”

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If Ted Lilly – who threw a simulated game earlier in the week – returns, it will be in a relief role.

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Jerry Hairston Jr. is scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing hip on Monday.

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Chris Withrow was transferred to the 60-day DL after a momentary call-up in order to allow Bobby Abreu to be placed back on the 40-man roster.

Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!

Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um … the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.

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One of the primary issues is that Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because Ted Lilly (maybe) and Dee Gordon are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps Chad Billingsley, Kenley Jansen, or Scott Elbert could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.

Either way, guys like Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe, Matt Angle, Elian Herrera, and Stephen Fife might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called — like John Ely, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Bobby Abreu — might be left disappointed.

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Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are Tim Federowicz, Javy Guerra, Josh Wall, and Alex Castellanos. I already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he’s a good defender and is an upgrade over Matt Treanor right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I’d rather see him get a chance than continue to run Juan Rivera out there, that’s for sure.

Other possibilities on the 40-man are Scott Van Slyke and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or Nick Punto. I’m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he’s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.

Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they’re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don’t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu’s healthy, he could probably do what Shane Victorino is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.

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Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.

The Dodgers announced moments ago that Jerry Sands would be getting the call from AAA and that Tony Gwynn Jr. has been designated for assignment.

OFFICIAL: @dodgers today designatedTony Gwynn Jr. for assignment and recalled outfielder/first baseman Jerry Sands from AAA Albuquerque.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 6, 2012

Sands has done his part to deserve the shot, hitting .286/.368/.521/.889 at AAA, including a BABIP around league average. He’s hitting lefties and righties about equally well, so putting him down as a platoon guy seems a bit asinine, and unlike last year, when he posted a 1.153 OPS at Albuquerque and a .659 OPS away, this year he’s at .964 and .826, respectively.

It’s also worth noting that even if you don’t believe Sands will be a regular in the future, he has put up a .248/.329/.381/.710 line in his MLB career, which puts him 60 points higher than James Loney and Juan Rivera in 2012.

That fact happens to be exactly what I don’t understand about getting rid of Gwynn though.

Mike Petriello doesn’t mind ditching Gwynn because he doesn’t think Gwynn has any utility left for the team. While that’s true, I’m not quite sure what utility the others have either.

Designate plus-plus defender and fourth outfielder, keep two mediocre 1B who are only useful in a platoon and all around useless 3B.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) August 6, 2012

I guess my argument is less that the team needs Gwynn and more that it needs Rivera, Loney, Juan Uribe, and Adam Kennedy less.

Gwynn’s .232/.276/.293/.570 line is terrible, without a doubt, but he’s still a plus-plus defender that’s better than anybody in the Dodgers outfield by a long shot. The type of player he is has value as a pinch runner, as a defensive replacement, and as an emergency starter — even if they can’t hit.

What utility do Loney, Rivera, Uribe, and Kennedy have? To me, they aren’t even useful off the bench as a pinch hitter (maybe Rivera).

Tony Gwynn Jr.: career .305/.372/.405 hitter in 147 PA as pinch-hitter. Between that and defense, should have been kept instead of Uribe

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) August 6, 2012

Dodgers had (at least) four guys who are let’s say offensively challenged (Uribe, Loney, Rivera, Gwynn). They cut the best defender

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) August 6, 2012

Regardless, it’s hard to get worked up about it, as we’re likely talking about 50-75 PA for Gwynn and whatever amount of defensive replacement appearances he would have got, but I just disagree that moving Gwynn instead of one of the other four was in the best interests of the Dodgers roster.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Dodgers have traded Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

BLOCKBUSTER: Hanley Ramirez & Randy Choate to #Dodgers, Nathan Eovaldi & Scott McGough to #Marlins, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

I’ll have complete analysis (with all the nerdy stuff) in the morning, but for now, my gut reaction is that it makes sense for both teams.

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

While I am admittedly excited by the gigantic upside of this deal if Hanley figures it out again, it’s not without risk. After all, there’s a reason the Marlins let him walk with 2 1/2 years of team control remaining.

First of all, Hanley is signed through 2014 and is still owed $31 million over the next two years, including whatever he’s still owed in 2012. Additionally, his batting line has been woeful (by his standards) since 2010, clocking in at .245/.328/.405/.732. Plus, as I mentioned, he’s not a good defender, regardless of where he plays, and there are very real concerns about his motivation and happiness. Normally I would dismiss this as media inflated crap due to him under-performing, but then I consider that his hand got infected because he forgot to take his antibiotics, and you start to wonder.

Choate, the other half of this deal on the Marlins side, also makes sense for the Dodgers. Lefties are batting .150/.200/.183/.383 (yes, really) off him in 2012, and while there’s nothing wrong with Scott Elbert, he’s actually effective against righties much more than lefties in 2012.

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For the Marlins, Eovaldi should be a solid rotation contributor, though I think his upside still lies as a #3 because his off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball. From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece. It wouldn’t shock me if the Dodgers lose this trade in terms of surplus value in the end, but I think the deal makes sense, regardless.

Who is McGough though, right? I wrote about him back in February and nothing much has changed yet. I still think he can be a MLB contributor in the bullpen, but he’s not going to be an elite guy and the Dodgers have a ton of arms, so his inclusion isn’t all that important to me.

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Overall, I feel the deal makes sense for both sides. The two teams want to go in different directions, and with the free agent market dwindling for the Dodgers, they could afford to absorb salary in exchange for upgrades/upside beyond 2012, and they did exactly that. Meanwhile, the Marlins cleared a contract and a headache off their slate and got solid cost-controlled pieces in return, at least one of which can contribute to the team immediately.

So with the Dodgers basically looking at everybody, and with the Carlos Lee trade falling through, the team has now revealed five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners.

Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The players believed in their sights include Brewers sluggers Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart; Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster; Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer; and Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. At the top of the club’s wish list are a productive corner infielder and a starting pitcher.

I thought the five players were intriguing options, so I decided to take a detailed look at all of them.

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Aramis Ramirez – 3B – Brewers

Dodgers third basemen on the year have combined to go .245/.319/.340/.659, and that’s being kind because utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. has a .326/.380/.500/.880 line in 50 plate appearances there. Hairston operates best as a super utility guy though, so Ramirez would essentially be a Juan Uribe (.200/.259/.280/.539)/Adam Kennedy (.228/.319/.289/.608)replacement.

Ramirez has hit .263/.341/.471/.812 so far in 2012 and he projects to improve on that a bit at .274/.341/.484/.824. Uribe and Kennedy are about average defensively, while Ramirez is well below average, bordering on poor. There’s a five to ten run gap on defense that Ramirez will have to make up, and that he does. For the rest of 2012, Ramirez projects to be about 20-25 runs better offensively than the combination of men he’s replacing. If you buy into his splits, which for his career have him ~60 OPS points higher in the second half, the disparity could be even more significant. Also, despite being 34, his peripherals show little sign of decline.

Of course, there’s the problem of the contract that the team would be taking on. Making $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014 with a 2015 mutual option/$4 million buyout, the Dodgers would hypothetically be on the hook for about $32 million for 2.5 years of service.

A bit painful but perhaps not overly terrible for a 3-4 WAR player, even one due to regress because of age. Ramirez would basically have to be worth around 7 or 8 WAR to make it work, and he figures to be in the neighborhood of that figure. Furthermore, he plays third, and unlike the corner outfield positions, third basemen are a much rarer asset. This is particularly true for the Dodgers, who have a complete dearth of internal options. Now factor in that the free agent market might come down to Maicier Izturis, and Ramirez isn’t such a terrible shot to take.

For the Brewers part, the Dodgers will probably have to wait until the last minute. Milwaukee sits a mere seven games back of first right now, which may seem like a lot, but with two wild card spots this year and the Cardinals late charge in 2011 fresh in everybody’s memory, they’ll probably be taking this decision down to the wire. One winning streak and they may not end up selling off at all.

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Corey Hart – RF – Brewers

Dodgers left fielders have hit .242/.300/.333/.632 on the year, which is amazingly bad. Hart would be a boon for the team, as he’s currently at .251/.313/.505/.818 and projects to hit .264/.327/.484/.811 the rest of the way. An average fielder, he would improve that area of the outfield as well, as they are basically stuck with Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu as their primary options.

Hart is signed through 2013 and makes $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. His contract is more than reasonable for a 3-4 WAR player, and he’s a potential addition who could make upwards of a 25-35 run difference over the rest of the year (that’s being conservative, really).

Like Ramirez though, he may never become available, as the Brewers may never end up selling.

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Ryan Dempster – RHP – Cubs

I already addressed his potential addition here, but his acquisition makes even more sense now with Ted Lilly being transferred to the 60-day DL, health unknown, as Dempster would be a huge improvement over Nate Eovaldi.

The Cubs are 14 games back and are shopping everybody, so he’ll be on the market.

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Cole Hamels – LHP – Phillies

I like Hamels for the same reason I like Dempster, except he’s even better than Dempster and has a longer track record of excellence without the immediate injury history. He’s a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher and a solid #1/#2 to slot behind Clayton Kershaw if the Dodgers can make the playoffs.

A 2.79 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.02 xFIP/3.03 SIERA in 2011 and a 3.08 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.24 xFIP/3.25 SIERA in 2012 basically says it all.

Hamels makes $15 million in 2012 and is slated to be a free agent, one that will probably be pursued by the Dodgers either way. The Phillies are 12 games back and should be sellers.

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Michael Cuddyer – RF – Rockies

Like Hart, he would be replacing a terrible concoction of outfielders that the Dodgers have trotted out in left field. Like Hart, he’s a solid hitter. Putting up a .284/.346/.459/.805 line in 2011, he has dropped a bit to .260/.313/.480/.793 in 2012, but projects to finish at a .281/.338/.485/.823 clip. Unlike Hart, he’s a rather poor defender, and I do have concerns that Coors Field is playing insane again, yet he’s still down a bit. That concern is especially true because he’s 33.

As far as his contract goes, he makes $10.5 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with performance bonuses that could up it by $1.5 million in 2014. A reasonable deal for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, but I think Hart is both the better overall player and the one with less risk.

The Rockies are 14 games back at the moment and surely would be willing to sell, even if it’s within the division.

=====

Overall, all of the rumored players mentioned represent significant improvements to the team. Unlike Carlos Lee, they are likely to be difference makers for the Dodgers, thus making it understandable that they surrender assets for them. Whether the trades are workable or worth it obviously still depends on what the Dodgers give up and the finances involved, but if these are the types of players the team is pursuing, they definitely seem headed down the right road.

I’ll be the first to give Elian Herrera a hearty congrats on a nice start to his career and for playing his role perfectly in relief of Mark Ellis, but let’s also make no mistake about the future. With some speculating that he could be a regular down the road, I just wanted to remind people that his start is almost entirely a mirage.

—–

He hits for no power, is an average baserunner, is a fringe/average fielder, strikes out in almost a quarter of his plate appearances, and has a .362 BABIP that was near .400 a week or so ago. He does have an impressive walk rate of 12.2 percent, and that underlying skill is certainly useful on a major league roster, especially when combined with the ability to play almost every position.

With that said though, the raised expectations and adulation heaped on him after a month and a half stint is quite a bit out of line. Put it this way, there’s a reason he spent ten years in the minors and didn’t hit the show until age 27. In the name of sanity, the obvious must be stated, and after seeing countless pieces praising his contributions, I felt like his 2012 production needed to be put into perspective.

—–

Nobody is saying not to enjoy the ride, just please don’t be surprised if it comes to a screeching halt, which is the direction his season already seems to be going. Herrera is hitting .179/.256/.256/.512 over his last 43 plate appearances heading into play on June 26th.

Regardless, the man has already served his purpose. Herrera helped the Dodgers by eliminating the temptation to call Aaron Miles, and he may even lead to Adam Kennedy‘s release, but that’s where expectations for him should end.

In bad news, Matt Kemp won’t be back by the end of June, and they’re not even sure if he can make it back by the All-Star break now.

Kemp has played one game since May 14 because of a left hamstring he strained twice. Mattingly said the club wants Kemp to play in five or six Minor League rehab games this time, because the two games he played in his last Minor League rehab didn’t provide enough of a test to prevent him from blowing out worse on May 30.

Mattingly said Kemp had another good workout Monday and “there’s a chance he’ll be going out to play some games,” but Mattingly wouldn’t give a time frame. He said he “hoped” it was before the All-Star break.

In good news, Mark Ellis is somehow on track to beat Kemp back to the field after getting his leg destroyed in May.

That would seem to be a miracle comeback for Ellis, who underwent emergency surgery May 19 to relieve pressure from swelling in his lower left leg after a take-out slide by St. Louis baserunner Tyler Greene.

“He’s got a chance of going out [on a Minor League rehab assignment],” manager Don Mattingly said Monday. “He’ll run the bases tomorrow. We feel like he is close. [Kemp and Ellis] are neck and neck. [Ellis] may be a touch ahead.”

Considering I was personally thinking that it would be sweet if he could just make it back by September, mid-July is quite the win.

It’s advantageous timing for the team because Elian Herrera has basically completely replaced Ellis’ production while he was gone, but now Ellis could make it back before regression completely destroys Herrera’s BABIP luck. Better yet, the team might be temped to keep Herrera and Ivan De Jesus, finally ridding the Dodgers of Adam Kennedy forever.

While Matt Kemp figures to be ready by the end of the month, not much else is going right on the injury front.

Matt Guerrier has been shut down in his rehab attempt due to pain, and surgery is now an option.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, on the disabled list since April 19 with elbow tendinitis, has stalled in his rehabilitation and said the most likely course of action is to shut down completely until his pain is gone.

When a platelet-rich plasma injection failed to resolve his discomfort, Guerrier two weeks ago decided to try to pitch through it. But he was discouraged after a Wednesday bullpen session in which he said he pitched better than he felt.

“It’s not responding as well as I’d like after two bullpens,” said Guerrier. “It’s very frustrating, so up and down and back and forth. It feels good one day, the next day I can’t play catch. The turning point was a couple weeks ago, and I thought I could push through it.”

Guerrier said among the options are exploratory surgery (about which he said, “I don’t think any of us think that’s the case.”), another injection or complete rest.

“Rest is the more likely bet,” he said.

Well then, I guess it wasn’t a fabricated injury to solve a roster dilemma after all, huh?

Fortunately for the team, the bullpen is a strength and they can probably ride out the loss of Guerrier even though it would be far better to have him back.

In other reliever news, Blake Hawksworth might be returning sooner than later, as he finally seems to be on the road to recovery.

Injured Dodgers reliever Blake Hawksworth, who underwent two elbow operations earlier this year, will continue his comeback on Thursday when he makes his first appearance in an intrasquad game at the club’s Camelback Ranch-Glendale complex.

Hawksworth, who spent all of last year with the Dodgers, underwent what should have been relatively minor arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow on Jan. 11 to remove a bone spur and scar tissue. But a post-surgical infection developed that required a second cleansing procedure and powerful antibiotics, setting back his recovery.

At the rate players are dropping, there’s a chance the Dodgers will need him to contribute at some point this season.

—–

Unfortunately, now Justin Sellers is hurting and headed for an MRI.

Just when it looked like the Dodgers were getting healthy, infielder Justin Sellers scratched from Wednesday’s lineup with numbness in his right leg. He will have an MRI exam on Thursday.

Sellers, who was set to start at third base, was replaced in the lineup by Adam Kennedy.

Sellers said the injury could have occurred when he crashed into the stands making a highlight-reel catch of a Miguel Montero foul ball last week at Dodger Stadium.

“I know I played after that and I don’t know if it happened then and got worse. I don’t know,” said Sellers. “It could have happened that way, I don’t know for sure. I do know for sure I was beat up for a couple of days, so it definitely could have been from that.”

Sellers said he’s able to swing a bat, throw and run straight ahead. But when he reaches to make a backhand stop with his glove, “I feel a pinch and a tingle,” he said.

If he’s out for a while, the Dodgers might not have a choice but to turn to Aaron Miles.

You know what? I honestly prefer that option to have Adam Kennedy as a starter. Yikes.

Speaking of middle infielder injuries, even the Dodgers sound a bit pessimistic about Mark Ellis‘ status.

Injured Dodgers second baseman Mark Ellis isn’t out of the hospital yet, or out of the woods. He will be sidelined a minimum of six weeks, possibly longer.

It will take six weeks before Ellis can return just from the two operations on his injured left leg to relieve pressure from swelling.

Still unknown is the condition of Ellis’ left knee and ankle in the wake of being upended by St. Louis baserunner Tyler Greene on Friday night. The club suspects one of the joints, if not both, is injured.

Trainer Sue Falsone said Ellis winced when his leg was flexed, but his ankle and knee became secondary when the pressure increased in his leg at the point of contact near the upper left shin.

After undergoing an emergency fasciotomy to relieve the pressure, a procedure that likely saved his leg, Ellis had a long incision sewn closed on Tuesday. Manager Don Mattingly said Ellis is expected to remain hospitalized until Thursday. Ellis will initially be on crutches.

Sounds like six weeks is more like the minimum time required just to be able to get back on his feet again, much less recover and play at the level he was at previously. Additionally, it certainly sounds like they expect ligament damage in either or both the ankle and knee.

Disappointing, but hope for the best, I suppose.

Adam Kennedy is batting fifth (yes, fifth) for your Los Angeles Dodgers today, so in honor of that event, I thought I would breakdown a swing that he took against Clayton Richard of the San Diego Padres yesterday.

IT’S SUPER IMPORTANT!

—–

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Down by one? No problem. Adam Kennedy’s here to save the day. Sitting dead red because that’s how Adam Kennedy likes it.”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Look how strong and hopeful he looks here. Like a proud lion confident that he’s about to rule the plains. Save that image in your head for contrast purposes later.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Throwing Adam Kennedy a fastball? LOLOLOLOL!”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: You can tell he thinks he recognizes the pitch here. If you look closely, you can almost see his eyes get wider because he thinks he just got a fastball up in the zone. Yeah … oops.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “I would be rofling right now if I wasn’t about to crush this baseball like Juan Uribe does the post-game spread. Tie game, incoming.”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Shit.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Aw fuck, is that a slider?”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Shit.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: *Sigh*

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: My favorite part about this is the look of resignation and utter defeat on his face. It permeates the screen and should be used as a flawless example of emoting in acting school.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Now I’m gonna get mocked by the blogs again…”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: I enjoy how his head automatically goes down, as if he knows that he’s just started a race to see who can type out the most clever “Adam Kennedy sucks” tweet.

—–

Seriously though, he sucks.

Now enjoy him going 5-for-5 with 5 home runs today because I wrote this.

The Dodgers have signed free-agent infielder Aaron Miles and asked for unconditional release waivers on right-handed reliever Mike MacDougal, who was designated for assignment last Thursday when Ronald Belisario was activated.

How does a player like Miles price himself out of the free agent market? How delusional was he, exactly?

“Oh ho ho! Albert Pujols got paid $240 million this off-season, and his WAR was only six times higher than mine, so it’s $40 million or bust for me in 2012!”

Fail.

Then there’s the Mike MacDougal news, which you may be celebrating about, until you realize that Todd Coffey has somehow managed to be worse.

—–

In “oh well” injury news, Juan Rivera is going to be out for a while.

Dodgers outfielder Juan Rivera has a ruptured left hamstring tendon and could be out as long as two months, trainer Sue Falsone said on Friday.

Rivera — who had been hobbled by hamstring problems for weeks but felt a pop sliding into third base on Tuesday night and was placed on the disabled list on Wednesday — has a rupture where the tendon inserts into the knee. Falsone said it is an unusual baseball injury and there’s a medical debate whether surgery is appropriate.

“We will re-evaluate after two weeks and see where we’re at,” Falsone said. “[Rivera] did some exercises today and was pain-free. The best case is that he’s ready to return in 15 days, but I don’t think that’s what we’re looking at. The worst case is six to eight weeks. He will play this season, for sure.”

In “aw shit” injury news, Jerry Hairston Jr. won’t be back for a while.

The Dodgers placed infielder Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list on Friday with a strained left hamstring and recalled infielder Justin Sellers from Triple-A Albuquerque.

“It would be a foolish thing to go out there and blow it out and miss two months,” said Hairston. “I blew out the right one and was out three or four weeks. This won’t take that long.

Can you imagine a bench of Aaron Miles, Justin Sellers, Adam Kennedy, and Matt Treanor?

I mean … seriously?

On a first place team.

Seriously.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Dodgers have signed Bobby Abreu, formerly of the Angels. In a corresponding move, the team has demoted utility infielder Justin Sellers to the minors and will probably use Jerry Hairston Jr. at shortstop.

The Angels will be paying Abreu’s 2012 salary, and speculation is that the Dodgers will be paying Abreu a prorated league minimum salary.

The Angels released Abreu one week ago and will be on the hook for the remainder of his $9MM salary. Abreu’s new deal could be for as little as the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum.

So at the very least, he probably won’t be expensive.

—–

My initial thought? Wow, wonderful. Any time you get the chance to platoon Juan Rivera and Abreu in what should be an elite offensive position in left field, you’ve absolutely got to do it.

With that said, it doesn’t seem like it will be much of a platoon, at least if Bill Shaikin is correct.

Abreu would not fit with #Dodgers or any other NL team except as a PH. He can’t play defense regularly any more.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 28, 2012

Seems he’ll see limited action in left field and be the primary bat off the bench.

—–

Now the main question on the minds of fans is why wasn’t Adam Kennedy released instead of having Sellers sent down. Well, the sad reality is that Abreu might not be much better than Kennedy.

Kennedy projects to hit .252/.305/.358/.663 the rest of the season, according to ZiPS. Once a plus defender at second base, Kennedy has now been reduced to playing fringe defense at first base, second base, and third base.

Abreu? Well, he’s on a four-year OPS decline (.843/.825/.787/.717), and ZiPS projects him to hit .243/.333/.382/.716 the rest of the way. Better with the bat, but not a gigantic gap between the two. Defensively, Abreu has been worth -76.3 runs according to UZR and -47 runs according to DRS over his career, coming out to around -8.4 runs UZR per 150 games and -5.2 runs DRS per 150 games. In simpler terms, he’s a shitty defensive player.

If I give Abreu ~100 PA for the remainder of 2012, he comes out to being worth ~1.3 runs with the bat, ~3.3 runs replacement level, ~-0.8 runs position adjustment, ~-0.8 runs on the bases, and ~-1.1 runs defensively. A total of ~1.9 runs or ~0.2 WAR.

At this stage in his career, he’s basically a well below average player whose only redeeming quality left is being able to take a walk more often than most.

—–

So basically, Kennedy can’t hit, but has defensive versatility and is competent with the glove. Abreu is a better hitter, but not by as much as you’d think, and he’s terrible with the glove.

Given that Kennedy’s current role is essentially that of a pinch hitter, I would think/hope Abreu is more valuable to the Dodgers. However, if they start to play Abreu in the outfield against every righty, it could get ugly, not so much at the plate, but for the Dodgers pitching staff.

—–

Kennedy is bad and he deserves all the criticism thrown his way, but the reality is that, depending on the role, Abreu might be even worse.

It all leaves me to wonder why the Dodgers can’t ever do better on the bench (Mark Sweeney/Garret Anderson/Mark Loretta/Eugenio Velez), because while Kennedy hasn’t been the answer, I don’t think Abreu is the thump off the bench the team is looking for either.

The Dodgers won yesterday’s game against the Braves 7 to 2, but the logistics of how they got that win is the interesting part.

The team finished the game with 29 AB, 2 K, and 15 H. That means for balls-in-play, the Dodgers finished 15-for-27 for a team BABIP of .556 on the night. Furthermore, they had only one extra-base hit, a double by James Loney, so they essentially singled the Braves to death.

You can’t get much more fortunate than that. And it doesn’t even include Chris Capuano managing to give up only one run in his seven innings pitched after allowing nine baserunners through five innings of work.

But wait, the Dodgers only had 29 AB? That can’t be right.

But it is. Only 14 AB resulted in outs, yet they still had to make 24 outs on the night, so how did the Dodgers do it?

A concoction of two sacrifice bunts by Capuano and one by Adam Kennedy, one sacrifice fly by Dee Gordon, one caught stealing a piece by Gordon and Juan Uribe, a TOOTBLAN each by Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and grounding into two double plays.

Ridiculous.

—–

When FanGraphs ranked the catching situations of teams around baseball, the Dodgers ended up dead last, primarily due to starter A.J. Ellis.

Well, so far Ellis is showing exactly why Dodgers bloggers disagreed with the rankings.

His batting line currently sits at .250/.412/.400/.812, and he’s seeing a ridiculous 4.87 pitches per plate appearance, which would rank third in the MLB if he qualified (which most catchers don’t). Better yet, he’s throwing out 36% of baserunners, and I have minimal complaints about his blocking of balls, framing of pitches, and handling of the pitching staff.

Granted, none of these statistics have stabilized yet, so there’s ample time for him to crater or tail off, but so far? So good.

The popular discussion about this game will revolve around the blown call that ended it, but that kind of stuff will happen from time to time, just ask the Padres. For my interests, the real discussion should revolve around exactly what Don Mattingly was thinking late in the game.

—–

As it got down to the late innings of a tie game on the road, it wasn’t hard to see that Mattingly was going to save closer Javy Guerra for a save situation. Many of us speculated on that move well before it happened, and sure enough, Matt Guerrier entered the game in the ninth.

Now Guerrier has been excellent this season and Guerra has struggled lately, but overall, Guerra is the better reliever and he’s the team’s closer. Yet instead of making sure that, you know, the game actually continues, Guerra was saved for when the Dodgers took the lead, a lead that never came.

That was a managerial mistake, and Guerrier compounded it by making a mistake of his own with the walk of Jonathan Lucroy. The Brewers gave the Dodgers a gift by bunting into an out without advancing the runner, but the Dodgers gave it right back when Nyjer Morgan stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error by A.J. Ellis.

Now this is the point where I felt Mattingly’s decision making got really odd.

Mattingly proceeded to intentionally walk Rickie Weeks to put runners on first and third with one out. If you’re going to go that route, the next course of action is to:

1) Walk George Kottaras to load the bases and create a force play at home.
2) Play the corners in and at double play depth up the middle, and try to induce a grounder.

Instead, Mattingly brought in Jerry Hairston Jr. from the outfield to make five infielders and then proceeded to play all of them in, negating the point of walking Weeks to begin with. The fact that the walk was useless was further driven home when Weeks took second base on defensive indifference, thus showing that the Dodgers never cared about creating a force at second.

So if they had no intention of using the force play at second, why didn’t they walk Kottaras after they walked Weeks? Presumably because they didn’t want to face Ryan Braun with the bases loaded, but if that was indeed the case, why not pitch to Weeks since they weren’t banking on a force play being around to begin with?

1) Pitch to Weeks and pitch to Kottaras.
2) Walk Weeks, play the corners in and the middle at double play depth, and try to induce Kottaras into hitting a grounder.
3) Walk Weeks, walk Kottaras, and face Braun.

I prefer going with option one or option two over option three by a lot, but all seem to make some semblance of logical sense. Instead, Mattingly went with option four, which involved still having to face both Kottaras and Braun, both with no force play in tact if Guerrier did his job, meaning they actively choose to face one of the best hitters in the National League and gave the Brewers two chances to win it.

With option one, you potentially miss having to pitch to Braun. With options two and three (especially two), there’s a chance you can get out of it with one pitch. Yet, Mattingly seems to have chosen the scenario that both gives the opposing team the most attempts at driving in the runner from third and results in having to face the best hitter on the Brewers.

Swell.

Granted, most of this discussion was negated when Guerrier unintentionally walked Kottaras, but it still revealed a lot of what Mattingly was or wasn’t thinking.

It’s just so … what?

Ugh.

—–

As far as the last play of the game, he was out, as Mike Petriello‘s GIF shows.

I initially thought Ellis completely whiffed on the tag, but having now seen it slowed down, I see where the glove bends back as he makes contact with Morgan.

Terrible setup and throw by Matt Kemp, by the way.

—–

What is Adam Kennedy on the team for?

I feel no more confident with him up at the plate as opposed to a pitcher, and quite frankly, he’s done nothing in recent years to prove he’s a significant improvement.

—–

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that Guerrier was signed for three years by Colletti and is the 4th best reliever to 3 guys making $500k.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 19, 2012

The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed right-handed starting pitcher Aaron Harang to a 2 year deal worth $12 million, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. The deal is assumed to be back loaded, but there’s no confirmation on that yet.

—–

Once upon a time, Harang was a consistent workhorse type of pitcher for the Reds, posting three consecutive seasons with an ERA- below 90 from 2005 to 2007 (3.83/3.76/3.73). From 2008 to 2010 though, things weren’t as pretty, and his Reds career ended with him posting an ERA- of 130 (5.32).

Like a lot of pitchers try to do, he headed to the Padres to ramp up his value, and Petco Park certainly seemed to do the trick, as he posted a career best 3.63 ERA. However, his ERA- was just 105 and his peripheral skills weren’t all that different from 2010 (16.3/17.3 K% & 7.5/8.1 BB%).

As such, the 2012 Dodgers are basically getting a 2010 Aaron Harang salvage title car with minor body work done in 2011 to make it look like a 2005-2007 generation but an engine that’s still as questionable as the 2008-2010 version.

Yearly Salary Estimated

Assuming he’s even able to stay healthy, which hasn’t exactly been a given since 2007, his skills indicate that he’s about a 4.20 ERA type of pitcher in Dodger Stadium, which is basically like a right-handed version of Ted Lilly.

I gave him 175 innings pitched, which came out to around 12 runs above replacement. Given that he’s going into his age 34 season in 2012, I regressed him a bit as well.

—–

I’m not going over this again and again, but I’m just gonna say that with all this money they’ve spent over the off-season, the Dodgers probably could have signed Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Capuano, and Mark Ellis if they just resisted the temptation to give away money to Harang, Juan Rivera, Matt Treanor, Adam Kennedy, and Jerry Hairston Jr..

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Update
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The Dodgers officially announced the Harang signing on Thursday, and with it came the contract specifics.

Harang will receive $3 million in 2012 and $7 million in 2013. In ’14, there is an option with a $2 million buyout. The option for 2014 will vest between $7 million and $8 million if he eats up at least 360 innings over the two years and at least 175 innings in ’13.

Since the terms are now known, I figured I should update my chart.

For the most part, it’s still the same deal, but it’s deferred even more than I predicted.

While many aren’t happy about the vesting option, I would argue that it’s actually not worse than the buyout. In order for Harang to vest, he has to be healthy, therefore I staved off a WAR decline in 2014, making the option year almost Surplus Value neutral.

Ned Colletti has signed Jerry Hairston Jr. to a 2 year deal worth 6 million dollars because…of course. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that he’ll make $2.25 million in 2012 and $3.75 million in 2013, which means the contract is back loaded because…of course.

—–

In all fairness, Hairston is certainly versatile and useful, as he can play 2B, 3B, SS, CF, and LF. Being brought on as a utility infielder though is puzzling, as it means the Dodgers arguably have at least five of them in Hairston, Juan Uribe, Adam Kennedy, Justin Sellers, and Ivan DeJesus.

Over 300 plate appearances, he totals -5 batting, -0.5 baserunning, -1 defense, 0.5 position, and 10 replacement.

—–

In 2010 with the Padres, Hairston put up a .244/.299/.353/.652 line, but followed that with a better 2011 split between the Nationals and Brewers, posting a .270/.344/.383/.727 slash. Given that he’ll be going into his age 36 season, I put Hairston around .260/.330/.370/.700 with a .310 wOBA or so.

With the glove, he’s about average or on the fringes of average at 2B, 3B, CF, and SS, but excels in LF. However, I project him to mainly play the former positions rather than the latter, unless they bench both Juan Rivera and Jerry Sands and any upcoming prospects from that position, thus making my head explode.

—–

The Dodgers are in a bit of a Catch-22 situation now, as Jerry Hairston Jr. and the rest of the utility infielder Avengers could all be worth their contracts if they get adequate playing time. However, in order to get that playing time, one of these guys has to lose it and thus be completely not worth their deals. Since no projected regular or backup are free of Ned Colletti’s hands except Dee Gordon and Justin Sellers, it’s almost a no win situation having this many guaranteed deals for mediocre players, with some of them being on multiple year deals.

I already mentioned previously that I actually didn’t mind Jerry Hairston Jr. on the team, and I honestly still don’t, mainly because of the versatility he brings to the table. I think there’s value beyond his WAR in the way he fills out a bench. However, the problem, as with most of Ned Colletti’s signings, is the opportunity cost of the deal and his asset management.

I know it sounds like I’m beating a dead horse by saying that, but I can’t not say it, because it’s a sad reality.

According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, the Los Angeles Dodgers have signed infielder Adam Kennedy to a 1 year deal worth $800k with the chance to earn $150k in incentives based on plate appearances.

It’s assumed that the addition of Kennedy will help round out the bench core, as he provides a left handed bat that can play 1B, 2B, and 3B.

The breakdown of the WAR is -12.0 batting, -1 baserunning, -0.5 defense, 1 position, and 10 replacement.

—–

I chalked him up for 300 plate appearances, so I assumed the $150k in incentives wouldn’t kick in. The exact playing time is not that important to the value anyway, as the more playing time he gets, the worse he projects.

For his defense and baserunning, Kennedy actually holds his own effectively at all three positions and he runs the bases well enough, so he doesn’t figure to be a liability for the team in either department.

With the bat, Kennedy has put up slash lines of .249/.327/.327/.655 and .234/.277/.355/.632 in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Needless to say, that’s quite poor, which is reflected in the respective .303 and .278 wOBA totals. His BABIP has been a bit below expectations for two straight seasons, so there’s a chance his numbers could take a uptick, but the numbers might simply be about Kennedy failing to make solid contact anymore. I ended up projecting him at a .285 wOBA, and given that he’ll be 36, it’s almost taking the high side of things.

I don’t think I need to tell you that the signing is looking utterly pointless, as he’s a replacement level player at best. For the Dodgers, considering his replacement might already be a better player than he is, I don’t see the point in guaranteeing him anything.

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As I’ve said many times before, the lack of funds from the owner in recent years has prevented Ned Colletti from repeating his disastrous free agent signings from early in his career, and in a vacuum you can’t point to Matt Treanor or Adam Kennedy or Mark Ellis or Juan Rivera deals as significantly damaging. However, all those deals do continue the trend of Colletti’s poor asset management, where 1 million is wasted here and 4 million is wasted there, all on mediocre upgrades that lead to either reduced roster spots for better players or lack of funds to sign actual impact players.

Painful.