Aaron Harang was traded to the Rockies in exchange for catcher Ramon Hernandez and cash. Chad has more on the deal here.

It was just a matter of time before the Dodgers traded one of the Harang/Chris Capuano to help clear a crowded pen and open up a spot on the 25-man roster for the soon-to-return Chad Billingsley.

Hernandez will serve as the backup to A.J. Ellis in all likelihood, which would push Tim Federowicz back to AAA, but I’d prefer to have the younger player with upside.

—–

The Dodgers released non-roster invitee Kevin Gregg.

A former closer who couldn’t find a big league job as a free agent over the winter, Gregg signed a Minor League contract with the Dodgers that did not have an opt-out clause. Earlier last week, Gregg said he felt there was a mutual “understanding” that the club would release him to find another job if there wasn’t room on the Major League roster.

With three extra starters (Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly) still candidates for trade, the Dodgers were hoping to have Gregg pitch regularly at Triple-A Albuquerque to be ready when they needed him.

Gregg had been in limbo since not making the team out of Spring Training, as he had been assigned to the minors but did not want to pitch in the minors.

After his solid spring, he now has an opportunity to catch on with a team, and thankfully that team will not be the Dodgers.

—–

The team also released Cole St. Clair, P.J. Phillips, and Joe Becker, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America.

The only noteworthy name in that troika is St. Clair, who had some heavy buzz around him following three excellent campaigns from 2008-2010 when he was whiffing over 11 per nine and had a K/BB ratio that was hovering around 4/1.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Yesterday, the Dodgers dealt Aaron Harang to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez and effectively cleared room in their bullpen for the return of Chad Billingsley on Wednesday.

The Dodgers on Saturday made official their trade of pitcher Aaron Harang and cash to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez.

Oddly enough though, the Rockies designated Harang for assignment immediately, so he’ll likely be elsewhere soon.

As for Hernandez himself, he’s certainly a more proven option than Tim Federowicz, though better is arguable. He’s about a league-average hitter (96 OPS+) for his career, but he’s 37 now and at age 36 he hit .217/.247/.353/.605 with the Rockies. He used to be a solid defender, but that has fallen off considerably with age and is probably a downgrade from T-Fed in that regard. Essentially, he has to hit to be useful, and the Dodgers are banking that he can regain his form, because he could be useful in relieving A.J. Ellis and providing much needed pop off the bench if he’s right.

More than anything though, this was about dumping Harang to clear room in the bullpen so that the return of Billingsley wouldn’t result in something like Paco Rodriguez having to be sent down. So from that perspective, even if Hernandez tanks, they still have T-Fed in the minors and it doesn’t affect the team much.

Money-wise, as you would imagine, the Dodgers are eating salary.

Counting Sunday, Mar. 31, six days of the 183-day season have lapsed. That means the Dodgers are on the hook for $3,095,082 of Hernandez’s salary, and the Rockies responsible for $6,770,492 for Harang, plus the $2 million buyout in 2014, though Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Dodgers would send $4.25 million to Colorado.

So, instead of having $9 million guaranteed to Harang, the Dodgers will instead pay approximately $7,574,590 ($3,095,082 for Hernandez, $229,508 for Harang, and $4.25 million to Colorado). Subtract the major league salary that would have been paid to Tim Federowicz and the Dodgers save approximately $2 million and upgraded their catching depth.

So the team saves ~$2 million but will pay yet another player to perform elsewhere. It’s not a significant deal in terms of impact, but I get the feeling that when all is said and done about the pre-Richie Rich Ned Colletti era, boy are a lot of the contracts that were handed out going to look ridiculous in retrospect.

Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it’s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it’s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.

Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it’s rare that a team with World Series hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team’s starting SS is out for two months and there’s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it all shakes out.

Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.

—–

Starting Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS – Luis Cruz
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

SS – Luis Cruz is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.

Yes, I’ve read the recent chatter about Justin Sellers getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release Juan Uribe, or they trade both Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (Jerry Hairston Jr./Skip Schumaker).

My experience with Ned Colletti and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.

3B – Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn’t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If Don Mattingly plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don’t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley’s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.

The alternative of Sellers’ .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!

LF – Carl Crawford certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he’s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can’t see him starting the year on the DL.

—–

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Skip Schumaker
B – Juan Uribe
B – Alex Castellanos

DL – Hanley Ramirez

IF Bench – The trio of Nick Punto, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti’s three standards, as reviewed above, so they’re basically locks to me. Tim Federowicz makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except Matt Wallach, and he’s not making the roster.

OF Bench – Why Alex Castellanos, right? Why over Elian Herrera and Alfredo Amezaga? Amezaga is simple, as he’s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don’t think is a quality player anyway, doesn’t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power … and Uribe, who can’t hit at all.

—–

Starting Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Chad Billingsley
5 – Hyun Jin Ryu

The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it’s been an adventure to get here, it’s basically worked out how it was supposed to.

That said, given the way the schedule looks, it’s possible that Chad Billingsley or Zack Greinke could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.

—–

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P Howell
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Kevin Gregg
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

Lefty Reliever – Sorry Paco Rodriguez, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.

Veteran Reliever – Kevin Gregg has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while Peter Moylan is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!

Starter Turned Reliever – Ted Lilly has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don’t whine to me about language. It is what it is.

What happened to Chris Capuano? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over Aaron Harang because he’s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there’s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can’t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.

Either way, I’m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I’m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that’s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned’s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won’t be a Dodger for long.

—–

Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because … of course it would happen.

The Dodgers pitchers and catchers report to Camelback Ranch today, on Feb. 12, which officially kicks off the baseball season for the team, and tomorrow, on Feb. 13, they’ll have their first workout, in which I like to imagine Aaron Harang lumbering through conditioning drills like a monkey.

The rest of the team will report to camp on Feb. 15, and Spring Training will be in full swing the following day, on Feb. 16, as they get their first team workout in, which hopefully includes Josh Beckett running around a lot, so he doesn’t look like this:

The team’s first Spring Training game will take place a week after the whole team reports, on Feb. 23 against the White Sox, who they share the facility with. On March 5, the minor-league portion of pitchers and catchers report, while everybody else comes in on March 11.

The last game of Spring Training will come on March 29 against the Angels (ANAHEIM!), with Opening Day following shortly at home against the rival Giants on April 1. I’m eternally glad that the Dodgers open with them at home, because I would puke all over myself if I was forced to watch the Giants having a celebration or something.

—–

The daily schedule on game days, via Dodgers press release:

Afternoon Games (1:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 11:15 a.m.
Visitor BP: 11:15 a.m.-12:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 12:20 p.m.-12:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 12:30 p.m.-12:40 p.m.

Night Games (7:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 5:15 p.m.
Visitor BP: 5:15 p.m.-6:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 6:20 p.m.-6:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 6:30 p.m.-6:40 p.m.

That’s not all that’s going on during this spring though, as on March 1 the World Baseball Classic will start with Australia playing Taiwan. The tournament is primarily relevant to Dodger fans because of players like Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), Nick Punto (Italy), and Paco Rodriguez (Spain).

Not sure it affects Punto or A-Gon much, and it’s a miracle that Belisario is even in America at this time, but I doubt Cruz or Paco will benefit from not being in camp for their first Spring Training ever with real expectations, plus Hanley not ever playing shortstop the spring after playing horrible shortstop in 2012 is bad news (as has been said over and over).

—–

Additionally, via Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy, here are the Dodgers home and away Spring Training caps.

Loving the home caps.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Worst Overall Pitches

Chad Billingsley – Cutter – .336 TAv

Josh Beckett – Fastball – .307 TAv

Aaron Harang – Sinker – .307 TAv

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the dumpster fire.

HOLY SHIT CHAD BILLINGSLEY STOP THROWING THAT PITCH

For the most part, he did abandon it in 2012, but apparently not enough. And honestly, it’s hard to tell when he was trying to throw a cutter or a slider because they both sucked and his separation between the pitches was inconsistent (protip: that is bad).

Also, there was a time when the fastballs of Josh Beckett and Aaron Harang (seriously, he posted 5 WAR seasons throwing it like 70% of the time) were feared. Not anymore.

—–

Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Josh Beckett – .307 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Chris Capuano – .297
Joe Blanton – .268
Aaron Harang – .256
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Chad Billingsley – .241
Ted Lilly – .213

How far the mighty have fallen…

Sinker

Aaron Harang – .307 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Joe Blanton – .295
Josh Beckett – .278
Chris Capuano – .272
Chad Billingsley – .232

To put this into perspective, by throwing it to a hitter, he basically turned everybody into Josh Hamilton.

Cutter

Chad Billingsley – .336 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Josh Beckett – .282
Joe Blanton – .253

Curve

Chad Billingsley – .251 TAv

Aaron Harang – .240
Joe Blanton – .183
Josh Beckett – .183
Clayton Kershaw – .084

Slider

Chad Billingsley – .263 TAv

Joe Blanton – .250
Aaron Harang – .218
Clayton Kershaw – .213
Chris Capuano – .190

Stuff wise, I don’t actually think his off-speed pitches are bad. Location wise? Yeah, he hangs them a lot. A LOT.

Change

Joe Blanton – .264 TAv

Josh Beckett – .237
Chris Capuano – .211

It’s almost as if throwing a change with no movement or deception is a bad thing.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Clayton Kershaw – Curve – .084 TAv

Josh Beckett – Curve – .183 TAv

Joe Blanton – Curve – .183 TAv

Am I surprised by the fact that the curve was the hardest pitch to do damage with? Yes and no. No, because it was bound to be an off-speed pitch, simply because fastballs are easier to command, thus they get thrown when a pitcher is behind in the count while the opposite is true for off-speed stuff. But yes, because I thought it would be the slider, which has basically become synonymous with swings and misses in recent times.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Ted Lilly – .213 TAv

Chad Billingsley – .241
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Aaron Harang – .256
Joe Blanton – .268
Chris Capuano – .297
Josh Beckett – .307

Is there a better example of the importance of pitch sequencing than this? Granted, it’s a small sample size because of his injury, but the fact that his fastball didn’t get blasted every single time he threw it is a testament to how he has to mix pitches to make his fastball seem harder to hit than it actually is.

Sinker

Chad Billingsley – .232 TAv

Chris Capuano – .272
Josh Beckett – .278
Joe Blanton – .295
Aaron Harang – .307

Annoyed by how I keep ranting on Twitter about how Chad Billingsley needs to throw his fastball more? Yeah, well he finally made the adjustment in 2012, but you should still get comfortable with hearing it, because he needs to continue to do that.

Cutter

Joe Blanton – .253 TAv

Josh Beckett – .282
Chad Billingsley – .336

Curve

Clayton Kershaw – .084 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Josh Beckett – .183
Joe Blanton – .183
Aaron Harang – .240
Chad Billingsley – .251

Just stupid.

Slider

Chris Capuano – .190 TAv

Clayton Kershaw – .213
Aaron Harang – .218
Joe Blanton – .250
Chad Billingsley – .263

Change

Chris Capuano – .211 TAv

Josh Beckett – .237
Joe Blanton – .264

Chris Capuano is like the anti-Chad Billingsley. He has effective off-speed stuff, but oh boy does his fastball get blasted to high heaven. Really puts an exclamation mark on how he needs to get ahead in the count.

After expected rumors of the Dodgers and Hyun Jin Ryu’s agent Scott Boras being far apart, the two sides eventually agreed to a contract worth $36 million over a six-year span, according to Jon Heyman. As far as incentives go, Ryu can earn up to $1 million per year based on innings pitched and can increase his base salary (via Dylan Hernandez) if he does well in the Cy Young Award voting. Additionally, Tim Brown reports that if he throws 750 innings over his first five years, he can opt out of the deal. The Dodgers won the rights to negotiate with Ryu for $25.7 million via the posting system, and that money will now be sent to the Hanwha Eagles.

We’ve gone over this on the site previously, but reports on Ryu’s potential range from a middle of the rotation starter to a middle reliever, but most agree he has the talent to slot in around #3/#4 in a rotation. Granted, he hails from the KBO and has no MLB track record, so he’s riskier than those on the free-agent market, but given the current market and the Dodgers payroll, it seems to be an acceptable risk to take for an investment that totals a little over $10 million annually to lock up all of his prime years.

—–

As for the state of the rotation, this now means that, in addition to Ryu, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly in the stable. Furthermore, rumor has it that the team isn’t done yet and would still like to acquire another starter.

The acquisition of yet another starter would leave Ryu potentially questionable to enter the rotation right off the bat, especially if Billingsley is healthy and they can’t find trade partners for both Capuano and Harang. Still, that’s an awful good problem for the Dodgers to have, and given Billingsley’s questionable health, the stockpiling of starters is obviously by design as well. Regardless of where Ryu starts off the season though, he should slot into the back of the Dodgers rotation at some point if he’s as good as most expect him to be.

The Dodgers made an offer to Hyun Jin Ryu, but it was rejected by Scott Boras, according to Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers made a long-term offer to Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin on Tuesday, but it was rejected by agent Scott Boras.

“Predictably, it fell a tad short,” said general manager Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers have until Sunday to sign Ryu or they lose exclusive negotiating rights and their $25.7 million posting fee is refunded.

“We’re debating our next step,” said Colletti. “I don’t believe we’re close right now.”

As I said yesterday, I still think this is all posturing by both sides to get the best deal possible.

For his part, Boras later clarified the situation to Dylan Hernandez.

[Updated at 5:35 p.m.: Ryu's agent, Scott Boras, said he presented the Dodgers with a counteroffer. "We exchanged offers, and negotiations continue," Boras said.]

Boras, said his client should be compensated like a major league No. 3 starter. So, presumably, he’s looking for something in the $50-million range. [Updated at 9:45 p.m.: This estimate was high, according to a person familiar with the discussions.]

The reasons for the Dodgers wanting to wait should be obvious, because if they sign Zack Greinke and trade for James Shields or something of the sort, then their leverage in negotiations with Ryu becomes extremely one-sided.

For now? Just have to wait it out.

—–

Speaking of Greinke, the Dodgers and Rangers are apparently in a bidding war of sorts, according to Jon Heyman.

The Dodgers have been viewed as a fairly clear favorite for Greinke, but Texas is showing signs of determination, according to major-league sources.

The Dodgers are seen as having an almost unlimited payroll, but people familiar with the happenings now suggest the derby could go either way. Not many teams could hope to go dollar-for-dollar against the Dodgers, but the Rangers are trying to do just that.

The bidding is said by major-league officials to be “quite high” now, with two people pegging the dollar amount at about $160 million. And that’s with the deal not done yet. There seems an extreme likelhood now that Greinke will not only set a record for righthanded pitcher but for any pitcher, which is currently held by CC Sabathia, who signed for $161 million and seven years with the Yankees.

Some have suggested they could even see the Greinke deal reaching toward the $175-million mark.

This situation, however, could be severely impacted by the Rangers negotiations with Josh Hamilton, according to Danny Knobler, as they probably won’t sign both.

But one scenario they don’t see happening, according to sources, is a double free-agent signing of both Greinke and Hamilton.

And they certainly seem on pace to sign one or the other, according to Ken Rosenthal.

For his part, Jon Paul Morosi is of the belief that the Dodgers are the clear favorite, while Bill Shaikin adds that this drama may not be over by the time the Winter Meetings conclude.

—–

Connected to Greinke in a way, the Dodgers are apparently shopping Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to whoever.

One exec says “Dodgers shopping Capuano and Harang around lobby. Greinke and Rhu, or Greinke and Sanchez or Dempster?”

#Dodgers becoming aggressive in shopping Harang and Capuano, source says. Could be a sign of confidence in landing Zack Greinke. @MLBONFOX

I doubt either of them would be hard to deal at any point in the off-season. Both are on short-term deals, the Dodgers could eat money if necessary, and the return demands probably won’t be significant.

—–

COMEDY BREAK

The Dodgers are running around shopping Juan Uribe!

One of the agendas the Dodgers are pushing aggressively in the lobby is to find a trade partner to take utility infielder Juan Uribe. Needless to say, the Dodgers are garnering little interest unless they’re willing to pay his entire contract. Uribe, who has batted .199 the past two seasons combined, is entering the final year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

What a disaster.

Asked an MLB official if #Dodgers might be able to interest #Yankees in Juan Uribe with A-Rod injured. The guy chuckled.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 4, 2012

It’s become a punchline, as it should, really.

—–

Dee Gordon appears to be a popular target for teams, including the Mariners.

The Dodgers are fielding tons of inquiries on shortstop Dee Gordon, tweets Scott Miller of CBS Sports, though they’re not looking to deal him. The Mariners are among the teams hitting the Dodgers hard on Gordon, tweets Miller.

I’ve given my thoughts on Dee previously, though I’m not sure what the Mariners have that the Dodgers want.

No, it’s not Felix Hernandez. Stop.

I’m thinking more along the lines of Kyle Seager, Corey Seager‘s older brother. The Mariners have Alex Liddi and Vinnie Catricala.

—–

Perhaps the R.A. Dickey rumors have some legs after all?

Hearing Dodgers thinking big, have strong interest in Dickey even if they sign Grienke. But they don’t have good young OF to trade.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

Source says Mets could get speedy SS Dee Gordon and top pitching prospect Zach Lee from Dodgers for Dickey. But that doesn’t help OF.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

That would be … a lot for a rental.

Still not sure I buy the interest as legit either. Not yet, at least.

—–

In interest of filling out their bench, the Dodgers are apparently interested in trading for Skip Schumaker, according to Danny Knobler.

He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.

Not so thrilled, really.

—–

Oh, and Colletti shot down those rumors from yesterday about them seeking starters at SS/3B. But there’s no reason to think he’s being truthful either.

Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

—–

Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers are currently two games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 4.8% (-3.4% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 5.0% (-3.1% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

—–

For today’s game, the Dodgers send Aaron Harang to the mound against Matt Cain, and they’re -100 betting neutral to win (50.0%). Additionally, AccuScore has the Giants winning at a 61% clip. The Cardinals send Jaime Garcia to the hill against Bronson Arroyo and are -155 betting favorites to win (60.8%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 58%.

Surprised by the betting odds on today’s game for the Dodgers? So was I, and I’m not totally sure why the odds are like that.

Despite that, the Dodgers are considering gambling with ace Clayton Kershaw by putting him on the mound tomorrow with a hip ailment.

Manager Don Mattingly wouldn’t say when Clayton Kershaw could pitch again, but didn’t rule out a return on Sunday for the Dodgers’ series finale against the Cincinnati Reds.

Kershaw, who missed his last start with a right hip injury, threw a 20-pitch bullpen session on Friday at Great American Ball Park.

Kershaw said he felt “great” during his mound session, but said he didn’t know if he could pitch Sunday.

Kershaw declined to talk about his hip injury.

A day before he’s potentially scheduled to go, the pitcher doesn’t know if he can do it and doesn’t want to talk about his ailment. Sounds like a good time to chance it!

That was yesterday, but earlier today the desire to throw him out there was reiterated by Don Mattingly.

Clayton Kershaw remains a possibility to pitch on Sunday in the Dodgers’ series finale against the Cincinnati Reds.

“He’s still in play,” Manager Don Mattingly said.

Noting that Dodgers management and the team medical staff will assess whether the potential rewards of starting Kershaw outweigh the risks, Mattingly said, “It’s got to be a bigger decision than just me saying OK.”

I said yesterday that the only positive to come out of Aaron Harang starting on short rest was that they weren’t considering giving Kershaw a go, but apparently that’s now out the door.

Sorry, but a 5-7% chance at the playoffs is not worth the 100% chance that next season would be screwed if something happens to Kershaw’s arm while compensating for weakness or pain in his core. It’s frustrating because their whole mantra about The Trade’s lack of immediate results was that we should judge it as a long-term thing, yet they keep pushing everybody to win this year to negative results (Matt Kemp‘s hamstring/shoulder/knee/head & Chad Billingsley‘s elbow).

Of course everybody would like to win this year, but it just strikes me as foolish to have Kershaw pitching with multiple ailments (foot is still an issue) for a marginal chance of making a playoff run.

It could be bad.

That leaves Sunday’s slot open, and one day after saying right-hander John Ely — who has made only two appearances in the Major Leagues this season, both in relief — could start, Mattingly said right-hander Aaron Harang likely will go on short rest. Harang tossed 4 1/3 innings while taking the loss in the first game of Wednesday’s doubleheader with the Nats.

“I talked to him today about it,” Mattingly said. “He feels good. His work will be kind of on that schedule.”

Harang hasn’t thrown on three days rest since May 29 of 2008.

If that date sounds familiar, it’s because it was the start immediately after Dusty Baker made him relieve for four innings in an extra innings game on two days rest. After which he missed a month of time with a forearm injury and had a 9.06 ERA in the 10 starts following that. Since then, he has never been the same.

I’m not saying it was Baker’s fault … I’m just saying. Oh wait, I don’t have to, because Harang already did:

“What it did,” said Harang, “is fatigue me beyond the point of recovery. I started to change my arm angle to compensate for the fatigue and that’s when my forearm started to bother me.”

I’m not saying the situations are directly comparable, but it’s pushing the envelope a bit considering that he’s now a lot older and a lot crappier. That’s especially true considering he’s still owed at least $9 million for next year. Also, for the record, Harang has a 5.50 ERA in three career starts on three days rest, most of which came back when he was good.

I suppose the only good that could come out of this is that they aren’t going to risk throwing Clayton Kershaw back in the mix immediately just for the hell of it.

Garrett Gould throws during the June 5th game against the Stockton Ports. Photo by Dustin Nosler.

The three players I was most interested in seeing when I visited the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes a couple weeks ago in Stockton, California, were Garrett Gould, Zach Lee, and Joc Pederson. I got to see both Gould and Pederson, but missed out on Lee.

I did a scouting report on Pederson on Tuesday, and now it’s time for my thoughts about Gould.

How He Got Here

Gould, 20, was the Dodgers second-round draft pick in the 2009 MLB Draft out of Maize High School in Kansas. Before the Dodgers popped him in the second, he was committed to play ball at Wichita State, Darren Dreifort’s alma mater. He was a guy I had my eye on for the team’s first-round supplemental pick (No. 36). Instead, the team took Aaron Miller and ended up with Gould at No. 65. I was thrilled. The Dodgers signed him on August 14th to a $900,000 bonus, which was $337,500 more than the slot amount for the position.

—–

He began his professional career with the Ogden Raptors as virtually all high school draftees do for the Dodgers. He appeared in three games and got knocked around a little: 2 2/3 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 3 ER, HR, 2 BB, 4 K. Gould also started the 2010 season with the Raptors and fared much better this time around: 4.06 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, and a 2.60 K/BB. Not great numbers on the surface, but not bad for an 18-year-old in a hitter’s league.

Last season, Gould got his first taste of full-season ball, pitching for the Great Lakes Loons. He actually out-pitched the Dodgers top prospect Lee in a number of categories, as he finished with a 2.40 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 2.81 K/BB, and a 3.23 FIP.

—–

So far in 2012, he’s pitched the entire season with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes and has been up and down. He owns a 4.90 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.7 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 3.18 K/BB, and a 3.45 FIP. His FIP is close to his 2011 mark, and his K/9 is up to an impressive rate.

Why the struggles then? Well, he seems to be lacking a little this season in BABIP, which is .349 — 26 points higher than league average. So to this point, he hasn’t been that bad; just a little unlucky.

Vitals

Gould is listed at 6’4″, 190 pounds, but as you can tell by the photo, he’s a little bit more than 190 pounds. That’s not to say he has a bad baseball body, but he’s probably closer to 220 or 230 pounds, and he’s a legit 6’4″. Gould has a big frame and his bottom half reminds me a little of Chad Billingsley.

He’s just 20 years old, so there might be a little bit of projection left, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Repertoire

Gould has a classic four-pitch arsenal:

• Four-Seam Fastball
• Curveball
• Slider
• Changeup

He also incorporates a two-seam fastball.

For Gould, his success depends on his fastball velocity. During the 2010 season, his velocity sat more in the upper-80s than the low-90s, but in 2011, he was closer to the low-90s on a consistent basis. When I saw him live, he was sitting between 87-91 MPH with his fastball, and he threw his two-seamer in the 86-88 MPH range. He touched 91 MPH with his four-seamer and generally sat around 88-90 during his five innings of work. To be honest, I wasn’t overly impressed with his fastball. He located it well at times, but it also got him into a little trouble during the game. His control was adequate, but he walked three batters in his five innings.

Gould’s curveball is his bread and butter pitch, as it’s the best in the system and ranks among the best in the minors. He throws his curve 12-6 and it sat in the 77-78 MPH range, which is on par with scouting reports. It had really good, late breaking action and is definitely advanced for the competition.

He also threw a few sliders, but it’s only his fourth-best pitch. He threw it in the 82-84 MPH range and it had a little depth and bite to it. It’s a fringe-average pitch right now.

Gould’s changeup surprised me most. He threw it a lot more than I expected and got a couple swings-and-misses. The pitch was clocked at 80-82 MPH and had good diving action away from left-handed hitters. He threw it with the same arm speed as his fastball most of the time, and he didn’t throw many to the right-handed hitters.

Delivery

Gould’s delivery, despite not being picturesque, is repeatable. It has a little “funk” to it, which is the word a scout used to describe Gould’s delivery. He said it wasn’t particularly a bad thing, though, as the deception is a good thing. The funk he’s referring to is the slightest of turns after Gould goes into his wind-up.

Gould’s arm slot is true overhand, and he throws the ball “the way you’re supposed to”. You know, from the time you’re in Little League, you’re taught to throw the ball over-the-top. Gould does exactly that.

When he pitched out of the stretch, he didn’t show much of a slide-step. And he still had the “funk” when delivering from the stretch. That’s something he’ll have to work on as he moves up, but base-stealers have only been successful on nine of 17 attempts this season, so he must be doing something right.

Gould is in a good fielding position after delivering the ball. He doesn’t fall off too much to the first-base side, which is a good thing. His front leg is somewhat stiff, and his back leg doesn’t break down when he pushes off as much as some pitchers.

Grades

Here’s how I would grade his pitching tools:

For June 2012.

Conclusion

At best, Gould could be a No. 3 starter in the majors. His curveball is definitely his best pitch, but his changeup is about on par with his fastball (from what I saw). More likely, Gould could be a nice No. 4 option, but either way, he should be a contributing member of the rotation.

The primary thing that will determine his rotation slot is his fastball velocity. If he pitches in the 90-93 MPH range with good command and control, he’s a No. 3 starter. If he’s in the 87-90 MPH range, he’s probably another Aaron Harang (as he is now, not as he was in his good seasons in Cincinnati). There’s nothing wrong with a No. 4 starter, but it’d obviously be better to see his stuff take a tick up.

With the surplus of right-handed starting pitching prospects in the Dodgers system, Gould’s future with the organization could end with him becoming trade bait.

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Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

Via Vin Scully Is My Homeboy

So according to Alex Angert of MLB.com, the Dodgers are winning because they like each other … or something to that effect.

But in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, it provides the best possible answer as to why this mixed-and-matched bunch of journeymen and callups have been able to string together the best record in baseball at 42-25.

Not a surprising article, and quite frankly, I expected one sooner.

Whenever a team achieves something above what was expected, the media generally takes the easy way out and attributes the success to chemistry or some other intangible. It’s a simple justification for a complicated reality, and it basically amounts to saying, “We were wrong, but not actually wrong, we just couldn’t see the things that nobody else could have seen either!” But that’s lazy to me, and it’s almost completely devoid of responsibility.

For my part, I predicted the 2012 Dodgers to check in at 81-81, and I actually thought I was being optimistic due to the projection models of everyone else.

As for my mea culpa, I’ll simply say that I was wrong, but for quantifiable/real reasons.

—–

Quite simply, they are winning because they are good on paper, not because of mysterious forces. The team’s Pythagorean record is 40-27, they are 42-25. Their third-order wins record (factors in opponent quality/statistical normalization) is 39-28, good for second in the NL and fourth in the MLB. Their performance thus far shows that they’ve simply been legitimately good.

Now whether the talent level is legit is a different story. Nobody had the Dodgers as one of the most talented teams in the majors, which is still probably true. So what accounts for their success? Heart and grit and stuff, right? Not really.

They have shown to have more talent than projected, despite certain positions still remaining mediocre. While Clayton Kershaw has come back to Earth a bit, Matt Kemp not only didn’t regress but actually progressed (while healthy), and Andre Ethier is on pace for the best season of his career. Jerry Hairston Jr., Bobby Abreu, Elian Herrera, Chris Capuano, and Aaron Harang, despite impending regression, have all shown to have talent levels above their projections as well. Not to mention that the bullpen has been rock solid despite being almost entirely reliant on team controlled arms from the farm system.

That talent, however, hasn’t succeeded on its own, as the team currently own the second highest BABIP in the majors at .318. Furthermore, while their ERA is second at 3.13, their FIP is sixth at 3.65 and their xFIP is 11th at 3.86. On an individual level, Abreu has a .431 BABIP, Herrera has a .410 BABIP, and I’ve already pointed out that the rotation has overachievers as well.

So the Dodgers have been winning because they’ve been partially extremely good and partially extremely fortunate. It’s an excellent combination that has powered the team to the best record in baseball despite injuries and mediocre talent at multiple positions. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with being both lucky and good. The fact that they are treading water without the guy who carried the team for April is amazing, and in a fortunate bit of timing, if they can continue to tread water until Kemp comes back, the team shouldn’t actually regress as hard as they would normally be expected to.

—–

So while I do believe that Don Mattingly is a great clubhouse guy and I do think his work has factored into the team’s success, I also believe that winning creates chemistry, not the other way around. It’s not hard to love each other when you hold the best record in baseball.

It’s easy to just assign a magical season to outstanding team chemistry or due karma now that the team is without Frank McCourt or the gravitational pull of Todd Coffey‘s gut helping to align the planets, but there are quantifiable reasons for their success without having to resort to intangibles and superstition.

Hopefully people recognize that, because doing otherwise sells the quality of their achievements short.

Rumors have been swirling for a few days now that the Dodgers are interested in Ryan Dempster, but it’s a bit of a curious fit because the Dodgers already have Clayton Kershaw, Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly, and Nate Eovaldi on staff. All six of those pitchers (assuming Lilly has no structural damage) are at least around average, so there isn’t a pressing need for yet another starter.

The Dodgers are “definitely interested” in Ryan Dempster, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). The Cubs are expected to consider trade offers for Dempster, a free agent after the season.

As Knobler points out, the Dodgers were interested in Dempster two years ago, but the right-hander preferred to stay in Chicago. Dempster has full no-trade protection as a player with ten and five rights, yet he understands that the Cubs may look to move him for controllable players. The Cubs are open to retaining Dempster long-term and have discussed the possibility with the 35-year-old himself.

So why do I think Dempster is needed? Well it’s not about Dempster specifically, but I think the interest in a quality pitcher does make sense.

While Kershaw is an ace of the highest level, the five pitchers behind him are a bunch of middle or back of the rotation type of arms. Plus, since they currently own the best record in baseball, the interest in a #2 type like Dempster for a playoff run makes sense. Honestly, does anybody really feel comfortable in a playoff series where the team must pick three out of Capuano, Billingsley, Harang, and Lilly? I don’t and Dempster would slot in perfectly behind Kershaw as both a #2 starter type and a right-hander.

SIERA has shown to be the most predictive of future performance, and Dempster would certainly provide a gigantic boost as the #2, upgrading a four-man rotation by 0.54 runs or a five-man rotation by 1.10.

The cost to acquire Dempster is a different issue altogether, but as an idea, it’s certainly understandable that the team would go after arms like Dempster in an attempt to solidify the rotation to make a run at both the playoffs and the World Series.

—–

As an aside, you can see why it’s utterly hilarious to me when people suggest that Chad Billingsley should get removed from the rotation.

Yeah, remove your third best pitcher from the equation, way to go.

Nate Eovaldi was pulled from yesterday’s start in AA, leading to speculation that he could be on his way to the Dodgers, but the surprising news is that the Dodgers were apparently in on Roy Oswalt.

Ted Lilly is still listed as the Dodgers’ Tuesday night starter, but there are increasing indications that will change.

In addition to the sudden audible of Double-A pitcher Nathan Eovaldi from a Saturday night start to a one-inning relief tuneup, the Dodgers reportedly were aggressively in talks with free-agent starting pitcher Roy Oswalt before apparently bowing out over his financial demands.

The Oswalt news is out of left field, as there were no indications previous to this that the Dodgers were involved in talks with him.

It’s odd news because such a pursuit would seem to indicate a long-term solution to a problem that doesn’t exist.

The timing of Eovaldi’s juggling seems to indicate he’s on standby to make a Tuesday start for the Dodgers. Manager Don Mattingly remained noncommittal when asked if Eovaldi’s Saturday appearance (he struck out all three batters he faced) could be a sign of an imminent roster move.

“I guess it could be,” he said.

Don Mattingly just gave a standard comment that he would say regardless of what the team is actually doing, but I think it’s pretty transparent that Eovaldi is on his way.

The question is: why?

My concern stems from the fact that nobody in the rotation actually deserves to be pulled. Clayton Kershaw (1.97), Chris Capuano (2.14), Chad Billingsley (3.88), Aaron Harang (4.36), and Ted Lilly (3.14) are all doing their jobs at the moment.

Now I wouldn’t be concerned about Eovaldi being called up to make a start or two if Lilly’s neck is hurting again or something of that nature, but the pursuit of Oswalt does bother me, because it infers a longer term issue and makes me wonder how serious a pitcher in the rotation may be hurt.

Another scenario is that perhaps there was/is a trade in the works, but basically everybody has been in the dark about that as well, which is relatively rare.

Should be interesting to see who’s on the mound on Tuesday.

—–

As a bonus, Mattingly shot down the suggestion that Billingsley would be replaced.

Mattingly did shoot down the suggestion that Eovaldi would move into Chad Billingsley’s spot in the rotation. Billingsley battled through five innings Saturday night, allowing two runs with three walks but also striking out eight. He was in position for his third win until the bullpen let an eighth-inning lead get away.

“Nate’s one inning has nothing to do with Bills,” Mattingly said. “We’ve got five guys in the rotation. I don’t know why we single out Bills so much.”

Mattingly went on to defend Billingsley for “continuing to work on things to be more consistent. Sometimes it’s easier said than done.

“I saw in the stats he’s one of three pitchers to win 10 games for so many years. Not a lot of guys can say that. It depends where you put the mark. Is he supposed to win 20 games every year? Is it 14, 12?”

Wins? Meh, but everything else is right.

With Javy Guerra getting smashed in the face, I have a question: why was he allowed to stay in the game?

I trust the trainers and coaches, and I’m sure Guerra felt he was fine, but I’m not so sure it was the correct move.

We can all put ourselves in Guerra’s shoes, as we’ve all been terrified at some point by sudden movements. So we know what happens when our adrenaline gets pumping and we start to feel like a completely different person. Well, now imagine that you’re in front of ~30,000 people, playing professional baseball, it’s the ninth inning, you just lost the game yesterday, you’re on the verge of losing the game today, and you just got hit flush in the jaw with a 100 mph liner.

I don’t care how “alright” he may have been, he would have to be superhuman to truly put all of that, along with the pain, out of his mind and pitch as he normally would, no? And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that Guerra had not been pitching exceptionally well of late to begin with, so why risk both the game and his health?

Either way, I know people are vilifying him for the loss, but it amazes me that he managed to pitch relatively normal following the blow.

—–

Don Mattingly, Greg Harrel, A.J. Ellis, and Guerra himself all say that he wasn’t affected by the line drive.

Manager Don Mattingly said he considered removing Guerra immediately after the line drive off his face, but decided to leave his closer in the game after Guerra was cleared by assistant trainer Greg Harrel. Mattingly, Guerra, and catcher A.J. Ellis all insisted that Guerra was not affected, physically, by the line drive.

Physically.

Mentally though? Has to be tough.

Guerra received concussion tests, which he passed, after the game. His jaw was visibly swollen as he spoke to reporters.

At least he’s okay, as he’s going to be a valuable part of the bullpen, regardless of what role he has.

Guerra has three losses, including two blown saves, in his last five outings over the last nine days, but Mattingly bristled at questions about the closer role. “Javy is throwing the ball good for us. Nothing really changes in my eyes,” Mattingly said.

“You can sit there and question all you want. Our ballclub has confidence in Javy. The game will tell us what to do with him. If he has trouble there, we’ll put him in a different spot,” Mattingly said. “Two days ago or three days ago it’s not even a question. After two outings do you think I’m going to flip-flop? I’m not.”

After thinking about it, I’m actually fine with the decision.

Kenley Jansen has always been the superior pitcher, but him and Josh Lindblom are best served putting out fires in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Granted, Guerra can’t keep blowing games like this, but I’m not so sure this string of appearances has to force a change either.

—–

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA reports that Nate Eovaldi is coming to town.

Nathan Eovaldi was pulled after just one inning in his start Wednesday night for Double A Chattanooga, and speculation is that he is on his way to Los Angeles. We just don’t know which pitcher he will replace. Mattingly responded “Yes,” when asked if there were other injuries on his pitching staff, but declined further comment.

Let the speculation begin.

My money is on Mike MacDougal. You?

—–

Juan Rivera and Aaron Harang should be okay.

Rivera, who strained a left hamstring running out a sixth-inning infield single, was out of the lineup Wednesday night but took batting practice. Manager Don Mattingly said the outfielder won’t be placed on the disabled list if he is able to pinch-hit and run for himself by the weekend.

“He was getting tonight off anyway after playing five or six straight, and Sue [Falsone, trainer] said he was able to do more than she thought he would,” said Mattingly. “He’s day to day. If it lingers, we’ll think about doing something different.”

Harang said he did not expect to miss his scheduled bullpen session on Friday in preparation for his next start, Monday in Denver. He fouled a pitch off his foot in a third-inning at-bat, and it swelled as the game went on. He was removed after six innings.

You tell me whether that’s good or bad.

Clayton Kershaw

What more can I say about Clayton Kershaw other than that he has perhaps the brightest future of any player in baseball – and has already had more success than most -  and all at just 24 years of age?

Entering 2011, Kershaw was coming off of two 4+ WAR seasons (4.1, 4.7), had fanned over nine per nine innings in back-to-back campaigns, and had already cut his walk rate by a full free pass from 2009 to 2010. His FIP was no higher than 3.12 between ’09 and ’10, and he had exhibited the excellent skills of inducing weak contact (IFFB% in 2009 and 2010: 13.5% and 12.4%, respectively) and keeping the ball in the park (0.92/0.37/0.57 HR/9 marks between 2008 and 2010).

—–

2011 proved to be his best season yet, and the young man is not even close to his prime. He whiffed 9.57/9 IP, cut his walk rate down by almost a walk and a half to 2.08 per nine, kept the ball in the park yet again (~half a home run per game rate), and induced infield popups 13.3 percent of the time while limiting the amount of line drives hit against him (18.2% in ’11, career 18.7%).

Kershaw produced a FIP of 2.47, a 2.52 tERA, and a 2.81 SIERA, all of which serve as career-best marks. One of the major reasons for Clayton’s success was his slider, which he threw over 25% of the time. Though we all remember how foolish he made Sean Casey look with his curve way back when in Spring Training, and know how devastating “Public Enemy Number One” can be, the slider is a more controllable pitch, and Kershaw can more easily throw it for strikes. Looking at his pitch selection, it’s easy to see why Clayton has reduced his walk total in three straight seasons. He’s thrown the curve less in each of his seasons in The Show (23.0%/16.8%/7.0%/5.4%) while simultaneously increasing the usage of said slider (0.3%/6.9%/19.6%/25.5%).

With a 6.8 WAR season and two straight 200-plus inning campaigns now under his belt, the doubters who loudly proclaimed the Dodgers had no “ace”, and that Clayton walked too many to ever really be successful, have nowhere to turn.

Chad Billingsley

Chad Billingsley has been an excellent number two starter over his six-year career. Still just 27 and sporting a career 3.71 FIP, 3.84 tERA, and over eight strikeouts per nine, Billingsley is only now entering his prime and can improve upon what has been a very, very good start to any major league career.

But don’t tell that to countless Dodgers fans and analysts who see him as nothing more than a weak-hearted and intestinal-fortitude lacking bum. In fairness, less see him this way after his career-best 2010, but many still view him as a detriment to the Dodger rotation.

There is no doubt Bills has areas of his game he needs to improve on. He’s always allowed too many baserunners (career 1.37 WHIP), and his K/9 IP has fallen in four consecutive years (9.01/8.21/8.03/7.28), while his walks per nine innings pitched jumped last season to an unacceptable 4.02 after a career-best mark of 3.24 in ’10.

Never hampered much by the long ball (career 0.67 HR/9 IP), Chad has maintained a fairly normalized BABIP of .302 and induced a marginal amount of infield popups at 7.6% (although last campaign saw a career-high 10.5 IFFB%). Though he’s faced bouts of being singled to death, Chad doesn’t produce as much weak contact as you would hope he would, which hurts him and the numbers, particularly with an overall weak defense behind him.

—–

Billingsley has twice been a 4+ WAR pitcher, with a 3.1 WAR season coming off of a broken leg mixed in for good measure. Yes, there are areas of his game that need improvement and have always needed help, and yes, I would move him in the right deal (with a big bat in return). That said, he’s a vital cog in the Dodger machine, and has been a really, really good pitcher for a number of years.

The Dodgers could do a lot worse behind Kersh (see below and below and below), and fans should be happy a supremely talented pitcher with upside like Chad possesses is in the rotation and in the fold through at least 2014.

Ted Lilly

Ted Lilly is actually Latin for “Home Run Steal”, for those of you who were unaware.

The more you know.

Lilly, in his first full season with the club – and the first of a three-year, $30+ million back-loaded deal with a no-trade clause in ’11 and ’12 – was predictably bad. Nearly historically bad, as he could not stop allowing balls to fly out of the park and baserunners to fly 90 feet after 90 feet. He gave up 28 homers and 35 swiped bags, and was nearly one of two 30-30 men for the 2011 Dodgers. Lilly has historically given up home runs at an alarmingly-astounding rate, with over one per game in every season of his thirteen-year big league career.

Lilly posted more than acceptable strikeout and walk numbers (7.38 and 2.38 per nine, respectively), as well as a very good WHIP of 1.16.  Unfortunately, when you allow home runs out the wazoo and free bases, your year-end numbers look pretty bad. A 4.21 FIP for a third starter isn’t outrageous, but for the money he’s making, he needs to be more productive and much more consistent.

Lilly allowed 23 homers and a .474 SLG% in his first 22 starts, but just five long balls and a .293 SLG% in his last 11 starts. He actually got lucky on the season with a .260 BABIP against, but of course, home runs don’t affect BABIP, so Lily has maintained a .270 BABIP over his career.

—–

A three-year decline in WAR, a 36-year-old body, and a three-year increase in walk rate with a history of too many walks allowed doesn’t bode well for a guy the Dodgers will expect and need to be as productive as Hiroki Kuroda was. A career tERA of 4.61 for your third starter on an offensively-light squad isn’t exactly optimal team building strategy.

But hey, he induces a ton of popups. I’m sure that makes up for it.

Aaron Harang

Signed to be the number 3/4 starter following a “rebound season” that was all Petco Park, Aaron Harang‘s days as an effective and productive pitcher are over.

Once a 4+ WAR pitcher for three straight seasons, the 33-year-old righty (now the proud owner of a back-loaded two-year contract) has seen his strikeout rate fall in three consecutive seasons to a paltry 6.54 per nine in 2011. He’s generally kept the walks down, but with a declining strikeout rate, the fact that he has walked over 3.0/9 IP the last two seasons is troubling.

Harang’s FIP has not been below four since President Bush was still in office, and like the man above him in the piece and the man to follow, he’s massively prone to the round-tripper. He has surrendered over one homer per game each of the last six seasons, and has done so in eight of his ten career seasons, with the other two yielding marks of 0.80 and 0.94 HR/game.

—–

With a three-year decline in WAR, a career WHIP of 1.35, and recent injury problems, this is exactly the guy you’d want to give a two-year deal to, with more money in the second year, and a mutual option for a possible third year, right?

Put your hand down Ned Colletti.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to back-loaded two-year deal (sound familiar?) after a pretty solid comeback season with the New York Mets following an injury-filled 2010. He fanned over 8.0/9 IP while walking under three per nine, and had a solid FIP around 4, just about what you’d like from a number 4/5 starter.

Unfortunately, he can’t keep the ball in the park, allowing over 1.3 HR per game last season. Of note is that it was not a blip; it’s long been a trend of the lefty (a la Lilly), as he’s allowed over a homer per game for the last six seasons, with a near two long balls per game mark in 2004.

Yes, Dodger Stadium will help, but giving up a massive amount of home runs isn’t exactly what you want to be known for, regardless of where you pitch.

Dee Gordon is straddling the line between confidence and arrogance, which is fine, but that’s not the part about this article that concerns me.

“I don’t care what they say,” Gordon said.

They say he’s impatient at the plate, that he needs to walk more, work counts deeper. He believes he knows better.

“Would you mess around with me and walk me? No, the pitchers come right at me, they aren’t hitting corners,” said Gordon. “They feel they can knock the bat out of my hands. In reality, I can hit. So it helps me to be ready to swing and not look for a walk. I could always hit the ball. I’m fine with walking, but it’s called hitting, not walking.”

Oh joy.

—–

Dodgers hope to sign one or two players that showed up at the open tryout, including Doug Davis.

The 36-year-old Davis, a left-hander who strung together four consecutive seasons of double-digit wins from 2004-07, went 1-7 with a 6.50 ERA last year for the Cubs. He has four seasons with at least 200 innings pitched, but his career hasn’t been the same since he was diagnosed with thyroid cancer in 2008 and underwent surgery.

Another athlete trying out was Minnesota Vikings defensive back Jarrad Page, which came as a shock to the Vikings. Page played college baseball at UCLA and was drafted three times by MLB teams as a center fielder without ever signing.

Jarrad Page is an interesting case, as he used to be a starter in the NFL for about three years, but seems to be getting less playing time recently. 27 is old for a prospect, but this is a different case.

Unfortunately, he didn’t even hit in college, but he was drafted three times, so the athleticism must have been appealing.

—–

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Aaron Harang‘s foot is an issue this year, but not the same part as last year.

Dodgers starter Aaron Harang was able to throw live batting practice Wednesday despite irritation to his right foot caused by new orthotics.

The Dodgers had some degree of concern, because Harang missed a month last year with the Padres due to a stress reaction to the same foot caused by pitching on a mound with a deep hole dug into it by the opposing pitcher. His current discomfort is with a different part of the foot than last year.

Harang said he was tentative warming up, but he could tell that the pitching motion didn’t cause discomfort.

For whatever reason, it’s not a big deal when Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw have dings and dents in Spring Training, but whenever these veterans have issues, I cringe.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed right-handed starting pitcher Aaron Harang to a 2 year deal worth $12 million, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. The deal is assumed to be back loaded, but there’s no confirmation on that yet.

—–

Once upon a time, Harang was a consistent workhorse type of pitcher for the Reds, posting three consecutive seasons with an ERA- below 90 from 2005 to 2007 (3.83/3.76/3.73). From 2008 to 2010 though, things weren’t as pretty, and his Reds career ended with him posting an ERA- of 130 (5.32).

Like a lot of pitchers try to do, he headed to the Padres to ramp up his value, and Petco Park certainly seemed to do the trick, as he posted a career best 3.63 ERA. However, his ERA- was just 105 and his peripheral skills weren’t all that different from 2010 (16.3/17.3 K% & 7.5/8.1 BB%).

As such, the 2012 Dodgers are basically getting a 2010 Aaron Harang salvage title car with minor body work done in 2011 to make it look like a 2005-2007 generation but an engine that’s still as questionable as the 2008-2010 version.

Yearly Salary Estimated

Assuming he’s even able to stay healthy, which hasn’t exactly been a given since 2007, his skills indicate that he’s about a 4.20 ERA type of pitcher in Dodger Stadium, which is basically like a right-handed version of Ted Lilly.

I gave him 175 innings pitched, which came out to around 12 runs above replacement. Given that he’s going into his age 34 season in 2012, I regressed him a bit as well.

—–

I’m not going over this again and again, but I’m just gonna say that with all this money they’ve spent over the off-season, the Dodgers probably could have signed Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Capuano, and Mark Ellis if they just resisted the temptation to give away money to Harang, Juan Rivera, Matt Treanor, Adam Kennedy, and Jerry Hairston Jr..

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Update
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The Dodgers officially announced the Harang signing on Thursday, and with it came the contract specifics.

Harang will receive $3 million in 2012 and $7 million in 2013. In ’14, there is an option with a $2 million buyout. The option for 2014 will vest between $7 million and $8 million if he eats up at least 360 innings over the two years and at least 175 innings in ’13.

Since the terms are now known, I figured I should update my chart.

For the most part, it’s still the same deal, but it’s deferred even more than I predicted.

While many aren’t happy about the vesting option, I would argue that it’s actually not worse than the buyout. In order for Harang to vest, he has to be healthy, therefore I staved off a WAR decline in 2014, making the option year almost Surplus Value neutral.

Jack Wilson: His OPS is on a four year decline, checking in with a .559 OPS in 2011. For that matter, both his AVG and OBP are on a four year decline as well, and his SLG is on a two year tumble. Needless to say, he isn’t a light hitter in the same way Jamey Carroll (solid but no power) is. No, Jack Wilson is just a terrible hitter.

His redeeming quality is supposed to be his defense, but even that has fallen off. It has gone from 27 runs in 2009 to 8 runs in 2010 to 6 runs in 2011, according to DRS. His UZR mimics that fall, showing 15.1 runs, -0.5 runs, and 1.4 runs, with FRAA painting the same picture at 2.8, 4.4, and 0.5. Even within those numbers, most of his positive defensive value is now at second base, not shortstop.

Either way, there’s not enough defense anymore to make up for his cringe worthy bat. I’m not sure what the point would be of even making him a utility guy, given that he might not be better than replacement level.

—–

Jerry Hairston: Probably not going to impress anybody with OPS numbers of .710, .652, and .727 over the last three seasons, but he does at least have about a league average walk rate, so there’s hope for usefulness.

His value though is in his versatility, posting average defense at 2B/3B/SS/CF while being above average in LF. You could do a ton worse than him as a utility guy and I think he’s actually an ideal piece to a well rounded bench.

—–

Hiroki Kuroda: Everybody knows that he has been well worth the money and that’s he’s a solid #2/#3 type of pitcher, so I’m not even going to waste my breath on that.

However, despite what is commonly bandied about, his status with the Dodgers is no longer just about his willingness to play another season in America. With Ned Colletti claiming that the 2012 payroll will be lower than the 2011 number, there simply might not be enough budget for Hiroki Kuroda to come back unless he takes a pay cut from what was already a hometown discount.

I’m not sure he’s willing to do that, and I certainly don’t blame him, as he’s coming off arguably his best year in 2011 and the Dodgers will need him to take a significant reduction in salary to get a deal done. I guess we’re about to see how much he loves Los Angeles.

—–

Aaron Harang: The 3.64 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 2011 with the Padres is generally misleading because of the park he was pitching in, as even his comeback year was decidedly mediocre with an ERA- of 105 and an FIP- of 119. I suppose it would be worth taking a flier on him as a fifth starter, but I wouldn’t just assume he’s back and ready to be a sub-4.00 ERA innings eater.

—–

Chris Capuano: His 4.55 2011 ERA isn’t pretty, but his 21.0 K% and 6.6 BB% show he has underlying skills. Not surprisingly, he has posted four consecutive seasons of xFIP- better than league average and hovers around average in FIP-. Furthermore, both his SIERA and tERA are on two year declines, perhaps showing that the contact he’s inducing is of better quality as well.

As a fly ball pitcher (~40%), he should find Dodger Stadium to his welcoming, and if the Dodgers can get a reasonable price for him, he’s certainly worth pursuing.

—–

Jeff Francis: Despite poor ERA numbers, he has always had a solid skill set that was masked by his pitching environment at Coors Field. Assuming he’s healthy again, he could be a potential bargain for somebody.

While his 4.82 ERA last year was ugly, he had a 4.10 FIP and 4.29 xFIP, so there’s about a league average pitcher in there already. Better yet, there’s upside here in the sense that if he can find his strikeout ways again (~15% to ~11%), there’s considerable promise for a middle of the rotation type pitcher for back of the rotation money.