The Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin/Dodgers/Padres debacle led to a lot of discussion and a couple of suspensions/fines: one for Quentin and one for Jerry Hairston Jr.

While Zack Greinke is expected to miss eight weeks after surgery to repair his broken left collarbone, Carlos Quentin of the Padres will miss eight games.

Jerry Hairston, who ran toward the Padres dugout after the initial melee died down, was suspended for one game.

Both Quentin and Hairston were fined an undisclosed amount, and both are appealing their suspensions. Both are starting in left field for their respective teams Friday night. Neither Greinke nor Matt Kemp, the other two players ejected, will be suspended.

For the best interests of both teams, MLB suggested to Quentin that he drop the appeal, and it was reported that he would. Yesterday, he did exactly that, and he will be suspended during the upcoming series.

—–

Tim Federowicz, as expected, was optioned to AAA to clear room on the 25-man roster for the returning Chad Billingsley.

“It’s tough. It’s one of those things as a young player. I have options left, and that’s just the way it is,” Federowicz said before Tuesday’s game. “You need some protection at the catchers spot if someone were to get hurt. We only had two on the roster, so they figured they had to do something.”

Ramon Hernandez will now serve as A.J. Ellis‘ backup, but give me Timmy every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

—–

Shawn Tolleson was recalled from AAA to replace the injured Greinke.

His stay on the team depends on what the Dodgers decide to do with Ted Lilly…

…and speaking of the devil, Lilly refused an assignment to continue rehabbing in the minors.

The Dodgers on Saturday asked Lilly to continue his Minor League rehab assignment with two more starts and he declined. He can’t be sent out without his permission and he declared himself healthy and ready to pitch in the Major Leagues.

The club disagrees.

“We laid out a plan and, obviously, he just didn’t like the plan,” said manager Don Mattingly, who put Chris Capuano in the starting rotation, and not Lilly, to replace the injured Zack Greinke. “From a baseball standpoint, we felt he wasn’t quite ready for what we want him to do, to start.”

“We laid out a plan and Teddy doesn’t want to be part of the plan. It’s out of my hands. We didn’t feel he was ready to pitch at the Major League level. For me, it’s a baseball decision. It’s nothing personal in any way, shape or form. We’re giving him our baseball thoughts, what we think is best for him and the team.”

In two rehab starts between the A+ and AAA levels, Lilly has a 7.50 ERA in 12 innings. Combine that with a horrible Spring Training and it’s hard to disagree with the team here.

But besides his performance why do they want to keep him in the minors, right? Well, Chris Capuano will make the start Tuesday in place of the injured Greinke.

Capuano has pitched two games in relief, including Thursday night directly following Greinke after he broke his left collarbone in a brawl against the Padres. In 2⅔ innings, Capuano allowed only two hits, a walk, and no runs, with four strikeouts. Capuano was 12-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 33 starts for the Dodgers in 2012.

So basically there’s no room in the rotation for Lilly, and Capuano is the right choice here.

—–

The Dodgers signed first baseman Sean Burroughs to a minor-league deal. Frankly, it was surprising to find out he was even still in baseball.

Just minor-league depth though.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

So in case you were under a rock yesterday, Zack Greinke has a broken collarbone and is out for a while, essentially because Carlos Quentin is an idiot.

As one would imagine, the reactions to what went down from the Dodgers dugout, media, and bloggers weren’t the most pleasant towards Quentin.

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Don Mattingly called him an idiot and said he should be suspended for however long Greinke is out.

“I don’t understand it either. We’re in a 2-1 game, and on a 3-2 pitch to guy I saw on the board set a record for the Padres by getting hit, a guy that basically dives into the plate. In a 2-1 game we’re trying to hit him 3-2? It’s just stupid, is what it is,” said manager Don Mattingly. “He should not play a game until Greinke can throw a pitch. If he plays before Greinke pitches, something is wrong.”

“He caused the whole thing,” Mattingly said of Quentin. “Nothing happens if you go to first base like in baseball you know you do, because you know he’s not throwing at you 3-2, in a 2-1 game. That’s zero understanding of the game of baseball.”

I don’t disagree.

—–

Matt Kemp went the extra mile to try and find out why Quentin charged the mound.

Kemp and Quentin were nose-to-nose before Richard stepped in. Kemp kept asking Quentin why he did it.

Matt Kemp confronted Carlos Quentin as the 2 were leaving Petco Park. Clayton Richard, cops, security broke it up.

Pretty stupid when you think about it. Last thing the team needs is for him to get hurt and/or suspended for dealing with that asshole.

While on the field though, Kemp lost it after he heard about Greinke being hurt.

Mattingly on Matt Kemp, one of three ejected: “once he knew Zack was hurt, he lost it

That reaction is more understandable to me.

—–

A.J. Ellis said that even a Padres player thought it was bullshit.

A.J. Ellis said #Padres players apologized for Quentin’s actions. “It’s not right, it’s not right,” he said one player told him.

Amusing that people are defending Quentin when people on his own team don’t even agree … off the record, of course.

—–

Speaking of the Padres, in a move of sheer class, Jerry Hairston Jr. relays that the reason he ran over to the Padres dugout, after things had seemingly settled a bit, was to confront a player making fun of the injured Greinke.

“It’s terrible. It’s unacceptable, and I lost it. If a guy’s going to hit you, he’s going to hit you on the very first pitch. This is The Show, you don’t do that stuff. My teammate now has a broken f—ing collarbone, because he hit you on a 3-2 pitch?” Hairston said. “I don’t know Carlos at all, I really don’t, but he was wrong.”

Hairston was ejected for going after one of the Padres after the initial melee had died down.

“I was playing peacemaker, just trying to break it up. Obviously Zack was hurt. One of the guys was chirping the whole time, making fun of him for having the hurt shoulder, broken collarbone, or whatever,” Hairston said.

Losing Zack stings, but we ll pick each other up. Zacks like my little brother. Saw someone making fun of him being injured. Not cool!!

Hairston said it wasn’t Yonder Alonso, and I’ve heard it was John Baker, which would make perfect sense since he’s a backup catcher nobody that will never have to answer for running his mouth. Who knows what the truth is, but it would explain why Hairston lost it.

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As far Quentin goes, his excuses after the game were about as irrational as you’d expect.

Quentin blames Greinke for history of HBP. Quentin said he has led league in HBP 2 years running and has never charged mound in MLB.

Translation: “I always lead the league in being hit, but never charge the mound. I did this time though! Why? His fault! But I won’t tell you why.”

Quentin, asked if any remorse: “I did what I did. It could have been avoided.”

Yeah, by you not charging the mound.

Look, I mentioned this in the other post, but Quentin gets hit a lot because of how he dives into the plate, so him getting hit multiple times by pitchers he faced a ton shouldn’t be surprising. In fact, if getting hit by Greinke often was his rationale for being upset, then Jon Weisman found a list of players Quentin should have been raging at before tonight:

The short list of pitchers who clearly have it in for Carlos Quentin: twitter.com/jonweisman/sta…

— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) April 12, 2013

It’s a long list for a reason, put it that way.

So, hear my plea Carlos Quentin: FUCKING MOVE!

Move out of the way. Just don’t be in that place when the pitch comes at you. I know some plunkings are unavoidable. But surely you can cut down on a lot of them. Duck, or spin away, or bend backward or something. Just fucking move. Take your walk the traditional way.

A post written in jest, but prophetic nevertheless.

—–

For his part, Greinke said he didn’t hit Quentin on purpose but knows Quentin thinks he did.

“The only thing I’ll say about that is that I’ve never hit him on purpose,” Greinke said. “He always seems to think I hit him on purpose, but that’s not the case.”

It was the third time in 31 career plate appearances that Greinke hit Quentin. But he is hardly alone in that regard, as Quentin leads the majors with 97 HBP since the beginning of 2008.

“I thought it was a ploy to get people to not throw inside to him, so he can lean out away,” Greinke said. “I don’t know anyone who has hit him on purpose.”

Quentin maintained Greinke hit him intentionally.

“Myself and Greinke have a history, it dates back to a few years ago. You guys could look it up. It’s documented. It’s unfortunate about the situation. It could have been avoided. You can ask Zack about that,” Quentin said. “I can tell you I’ve never responded in that fashion before.”

Speaking of Quentin complaining about getting hit while diving over the plate, Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong gave a quote last year when Quentin got mad at him for throwing inside that basically sums Quentin’s attitude up.

A reminder after taking in the brawl last night between the Dodgers and Padres after Zack Greinke hit Carlos Quentin, who then charged the pitcher and broke his collarbone: Last Aug. 19 in San Diego, Ryan Vogelsong had a beef with Quentin after hitting him with a pitch, and Clayton Richard retaliating by hitting Brandon Belt.

Vogelsong fumed after the game that Quentin crowds the plate and should not react the way he does.

“Go look at the video,” Vogelsong fumed. “It was a two-seamer that ran of the plate. That guy hammers balls over the plate and he gets pissed when you throw the ball inside. It doesn’t make sense. Every time you hit a guy in this game now they think you did it on purpose. It’s tired.”

Sounds familiar.

—–

As far as the accusation that Greinke was trying to instigate a fight:

Zack Greinke was asked if he wanted to fight Carlos Quentin. “I can’t remember the last time I wanted to get in a fight with someone.”

I think most would agree that he seems like the last person who would want to start anything physical.

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As for the opposing side, Padres fans are handling this extremely classy … hahahaha no.

This doesn’t even scratch the surface of it, but just to give you a taste:

*Click To Enlarge*

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My take: you never want to see a player charging the mound, but it’s not like it’s never happened before. (1/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Greinke intentionally moved his body into harm’s way and charged at Quentin. He didn’t have to. That’s his own fault. (2/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Quentin may have started it, but Greinke’s response was “challenge accepted.” You get what you ask for in this world.

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Remember guys, Quentin started it, we can all agree on that, but once Quentin started walking toward Greinke and then charged, Greinke didn’t run away, therefore, any injury suffered is HIS fault.

I’d hate for that guy to be in charge of the law. If you got assaulted on the street, his advice would be to not fight back or else you deserve everything that happens to you.

Logic.

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Anyway, reading through my Twitter timeline, seems like the consensus among even non-Dodger fans is “fuck Quentin”, so in conclusion:

Aaron Harang was traded to the Rockies in exchange for catcher Ramon Hernandez and cash. Chad has more on the deal here.

It was just a matter of time before the Dodgers traded one of the Harang/Chris Capuano to help clear a crowded pen and open up a spot on the 25-man roster for the soon-to-return Chad Billingsley.

Hernandez will serve as the backup to A.J. Ellis in all likelihood, which would push Tim Federowicz back to AAA, but I’d prefer to have the younger player with upside.

—–

The Dodgers released non-roster invitee Kevin Gregg.

A former closer who couldn’t find a big league job as a free agent over the winter, Gregg signed a Minor League contract with the Dodgers that did not have an opt-out clause. Earlier last week, Gregg said he felt there was a mutual “understanding” that the club would release him to find another job if there wasn’t room on the Major League roster.

With three extra starters (Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly) still candidates for trade, the Dodgers were hoping to have Gregg pitch regularly at Triple-A Albuquerque to be ready when they needed him.

Gregg had been in limbo since not making the team out of Spring Training, as he had been assigned to the minors but did not want to pitch in the minors.

After his solid spring, he now has an opportunity to catch on with a team, and thankfully that team will not be the Dodgers.

—–

The team also released Cole St. Clair, P.J. Phillips, and Joe Becker, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America.

The only noteworthy name in that troika is St. Clair, who had some heavy buzz around him following three excellent campaigns from 2008-2010 when he was whiffing over 11 per nine and had a K/BB ratio that was hovering around 4/1.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Yesterday, the Dodgers dealt Aaron Harang to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez and effectively cleared room in their bullpen for the return of Chad Billingsley on Wednesday.

The Dodgers on Saturday made official their trade of pitcher Aaron Harang and cash to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez.

Oddly enough though, the Rockies designated Harang for assignment immediately, so he’ll likely be elsewhere soon.

As for Hernandez himself, he’s certainly a more proven option than Tim Federowicz, though better is arguable. He’s about a league-average hitter (96 OPS+) for his career, but he’s 37 now and at age 36 he hit .217/.247/.353/.605 with the Rockies. He used to be a solid defender, but that has fallen off considerably with age and is probably a downgrade from T-Fed in that regard. Essentially, he has to hit to be useful, and the Dodgers are banking that he can regain his form, because he could be useful in relieving A.J. Ellis and providing much needed pop off the bench if he’s right.

More than anything though, this was about dumping Harang to clear room in the bullpen so that the return of Billingsley wouldn’t result in something like Paco Rodriguez having to be sent down. So from that perspective, even if Hernandez tanks, they still have T-Fed in the minors and it doesn’t affect the team much.

Money-wise, as you would imagine, the Dodgers are eating salary.

Counting Sunday, Mar. 31, six days of the 183-day season have lapsed. That means the Dodgers are on the hook for $3,095,082 of Hernandez’s salary, and the Rockies responsible for $6,770,492 for Harang, plus the $2 million buyout in 2014, though Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Dodgers would send $4.25 million to Colorado.

So, instead of having $9 million guaranteed to Harang, the Dodgers will instead pay approximately $7,574,590 ($3,095,082 for Hernandez, $229,508 for Harang, and $4.25 million to Colorado). Subtract the major league salary that would have been paid to Tim Federowicz and the Dodgers save approximately $2 million and upgraded their catching depth.

So the team saves ~$2 million but will pay yet another player to perform elsewhere. It’s not a significant deal in terms of impact, but I get the feeling that when all is said and done about the pre-Richie Rich Ned Colletti era, boy are a lot of the contracts that were handed out going to look ridiculous in retrospect.

Javy Guerra has been optioned to AAA after a rough spring in which he dealt with injury and had been limited to just a couple of appearances. The Dodgers have a deep pen and, with Guerra’s injuries and struggles, he was going to have to excel during Spring Training to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Tony Gwynn Jr. was also assigned to AAA Albuquerque. Gwynn was one of the few guys with the ability to backup Matt Kemp and previous big-league experience doing so, but the move reinforces just how little Tony can swing the lumber and the fact that the Dodgers clearly have faith that Carl Crawford will be healthy enough to serve as the number two center fielder.

Shawn Tolleson and Justin Sellers were optioned to AAA, while Jesus Flores was reassigned to minor-league camp. Additionally, Chris Withrow was optioned to minor-league camp along with Juan Abreu and Wilkin Castillo.

—–

The team released three players in Dallas McPherson, Ramon Castro, and Nick Evans.

—–

On the flip side of things, the team has signed Dashenko Ricardo of Curacao to a contract after Dashenko participated in the World Baseball Classic.

Along with Ricardo came the signings of Dominican prospects Dennis Santana and Carlos Aquino – both shortstops – and lefty Cesar Romero.

—–

Tim Federowicz has probably locked up the job of backing up A.J. Ellis with the removal of Jesus Flores from major-league camp.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Dodgers designated hitter third baseman first baseman shortstop Hanley Ramirez jammed his right thumb while diving for a groundball in the World Baseball Classic and he’ll get an MRI today at the Camelback Ranch.

His WBC manager and general manager gave differing takes on the severity of it.

“I don’t think it’s bad,” Dominican coach Alfredo Griffin said.

Ramirez, playing third base for the Dominican, jammed the thumb while diving for a ground ball in the third inning. He remained in the game, even delivering a single in the fourth inning, but left after five innings.

Ramirez declined comment through a team spokesman. Dominican Manager Tony Pena said he removed Ramirez for precautionary reasons, even though Ramirez told Pena he could have gone on.

So Tony Pena didn’t think it was bad, but it’s odd to me that Hanley declined comment on it if he wasn’t worried, and maybe it’s because he is a bit, as Moises Alou sounded.

“Hanley, he jammed his thumb when he dove for that ball,” Alou said after the Dominican Republic ran off eight consecutive wins to go undefeated and win the Classic for the first time. “It was pretty swollen. He’s going to have an MRI on it [Wednesday] in Arizona.”

I guess there are differing versions of ‘serious’ at play here.

Just recently, Stan Conte spoke and although he hasn’t had an MRI yet, they’ve already ruled Hanley out for a couple weeks.

Director of medical services Stan Conte spoke with the doctor at AT&T Park, and team trainer Sue Falsone was in contact with Ramirez on Tuesday night. Both relayed their information to manager Don Mattingly.

“They painted both pictures. The optimistic side is that he had another at-bat and it’s just a sprain and it could be a couple of weeks,” Mattingly said. “The pessimistic side is that it could be something major and he’s out 8-10 weeks.”

So he’s going to miss time, regardless, and they’re obviously worried. If he misses two months of the regular season … welcome Juan Uribe.

—–

Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Sunday and reported no pain in his right elbow, which had been bothering him recently and been diagnosed as inflamed.

“I guess I could have something, but I’m assuming it’s going to fine to be on track to do whatever, but I don’t know for sure,” Greinke said.

“I probably threw a little more (than expected). I felt good. I was working on stuff, and trying to make sure I’m ready for a game,” Greinke said. “I’m just trying to get ready. I don’t think about it as a rehab.”

“I’m just doing what’s laid out, to give us the best chance. On our team we have other starting pitchers, and we have to be ready. They’re going to weigh all that in,” Greinke said. “I just want to do what’s best for the team. It’s not important what day [I make my first start of the season].”

It’s encouraging to see Greinke make it through a session without pain, and he’ll start a minor-league affair today with a strict pitch count in place. A.J. Ellis will catch Greinke instead of suiting up with the rest of the squad.

Manager Don Mattingly said that Greinke will pitch in a Minor League game in the afternoon, with A.J. Ellis staying back to catch instead of playing in the Dodgers’ Cactus League game against Kansas City.

The team should not feel rushed to get him back by Opening Day if he needs an extra week or two to get healthy for a long, long, long season.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s elbow has held up all Spring Training, but unfortunately he hasn’t escaped the injury bug as a sore groin is now accompanied by a bruised index finger on his pitching hand.

The finger forced Bills out of his scheduled outing.

“I’m just taking it day by day, seeing how I feel,” Billingsley said. “I’m still playing catch, but the command is just not there because it’s bruised and swollen.”

“(We’re not) trying to force him into this one. We’re concerned about the finger from the standpoint of changing a grip, then not having a grip pressure then changing an arm angle. With everything that has gone on, we really don’t want that,” Mattingly said. “The one thing with Bills, we want to make sure he’s able to throw.”

Glad to see Don Mattingly and his staff aren’t putting pressure on Chad to tough it out and are cognizant of the fact that doing so could lead to a change in mechanics.

But how did Billingsley injure himself, you might ask?

Bunting.

Yes, Matt, bunting.

Billingsley was scratched from Wednesday’s scheduled outing due to the finger. He’s scheduled for a bullpen session instead, and game action on Saturday.

—–

Carl Crawford, who has been dealing with elbow issues during Spring Training, saw improvement Monday in his ability to swing the bat and throw the ball.

“It’s good to see him get a couple of hits, which makes him feel better and more part of it. But even better today for me was him throwing, and Stan (Conte, team director of medical services) working with him on the cuts,” Mattingly said. “He had a lot on the ball. That was really positive today.”

“I’m throwing a little bit harder at (75-80) feet,” Crawford said. “At some point the goal is to be able to hit the cut off man, I’m not sure how many feet that is but that’s the goal.”

Once Crawford can hit the cutoff man, he’ll be cleared by the staff to play left field. Until such an event actually occurs, Carl will continue to DH.

It’s great that there’s no serious issue at play here, but the quotes on his throwing aren’t exactly glowing.

Though Crawford has also made progress throwing, it seems that won’t return until the regular season. But as long as Crawford is ready with the bat, that will determine when he’s ready.

“I don’t think he’s going to be 100% (throwing). When I asked Stan (Conte, director of medical services) when is he ready to really throw and he said, ‘May.’ So it’s going to be a work in progress,” Mattingly said. “But we’re building to a point where we’re comfortable with him being out there. We’re feeling good about everything about Carl right now.”

I couldn’t imagine a worse-throwing outfielder than Juan Pierre, but it looks like we might see it.

—–

Josh Beckett has the flu, which I can only imagine he caught from Ted Lilly.

Regardless, Beckett did start a simulated game against three minor-leaguers and Jerry Hairston Jr..

“Everything went good,” manager Don Mattingly reported. “He got better as the game went on. He was happy about being able to get it in. He was worried that if he did it in a [Cactus League] game and he had a long inning, he wouldn’t get his pitch count up and the up-and-downs. He seemed to be happy with it.”

Beckett threw 76 pitches and went through the up-and-down of six innings, pitching and resting in between.

Beckett’s had an excellent spring, so hopefully he won’t miss too much time – he’s been under the weather two days thus far – as he looks to carry his exhibition success into the meaningful regular season.

—–

Chris Withrow, who had been out with back spasms all Spring Training, returned briefly only to be injured by a liner off the shin.

Withrow escaped with a bruise from the Paul Goldschmidt shot, and he said he expects to be back in action in a couple of days.

“It’s been a pretty adventurous spring,” said Withrow. “I came in ready to go. For my back to go out the second day was kind of frustrating. Then the second batter, after seven months off, that’s not ideal either. Things happen for a reason.”

The guy just can’t seem to stay healthy, even when it comes to living life off the field, as a recent close-call indicates.

Things were adventurous for Withrow even before Spring Training started. He and his wife survived an offseason rollover auto accident with only minor injuries.

Hopefully he can find some good health in his future, as you can never have enough live arms with strikeout stuff.

—–

Dee Gordon is day-to-day after slightly spraining his ankle in a collision at home, according to Don Mattingly.

The shortstop walked off the field and back to the clubhouse on his own, and the injury isn’t believed to be serious.

Chad provided us with visual proof of Gordon attempting to run over (?) Miguel Montero on an overall laughable play.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

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Top Five David Carradine Choke Jobs Of 2012

1. Andre Ethier – -39.3%

Horrifying.

With the bases loaded and one down in the bottom of the eighth, and the Dodgers trailing the rival Giants 2-1, Andre Ethier comes up and … yeah.

…

2. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -34.1%

Nobody out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by a run, Jerry Hairston Jr. decides it’s a sweet time to ground into a double play while there’s runners on first and second, thus killing a massive opportunity.

3. Adam Kennedy – -33.6%

Second and third and one out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by one run, Adam Kennedy did what he did best in 2012: rolling over and chopping a ball to the right side.

Extra scorn for almost killing Matt Kemp.

4. Tony Gwynn Jr. – -29.1%

Just looking.

Down by a run in the bottom of the ninth with runners on second and third, Tony Gwynn Jr. needed to put the ball in play and give himself a chance. Instead, he did his best impersonation of a statue.

5. Mark Ellis – -25.7%

Bottom of the tenth and trailing by a run, the Dodgers put men on first and third with one out, but Mark Ellis … did that.

Bonus anger for doing it against Jonathan Papelbon.

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Commentary? So much fail.

—–

Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. A.J. Ellis – -1.62
2. Adam Kennedy – -1.14
3. Andre Ethier – -1.01
4. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -0.95
5. Shane Victorino – -0.37

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Clayton Kershaw related to Dylan Hernandez that the hip injury which felled him during the 2012 campaign has not been an issue this offseason.

“It was never a problem for me,” said Kershaw.

The Dodgers allowing Kersh to pitch on the balky hip late last season – in what was a lost season towards the end, no less – still does not sit right with me. Luckily for them and all of us, Kershaw’s injury never progressed to a more serious state.

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A.J. Ellis tells Steve Dilbeck that he has fully recovered from knee surgery and will be ready to start the season as usual.

Catcher A.J. Ellis said he feels fully recovered from left knee surgery and is already partaking in all baseball drills.

“I’m doing all my regular baseball activities,” Ellis said. “It looks like a normal January for me.”

In a season that already has a lot of injury question marks, having him declared healthy is a boost.

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Chad Billingsley, whose uncertain health spurred the Dodgers to their offseason spending spree for starting pitchers, said he’s had no issues with his right elbow during the winter.

With less than two weeks before the first pitchers-and-catchers workout, Billingsley said he feels “absolutely great.”

“Tomorrow I’ll throw off a mound for the eighth time and I’ve had no issues,” he told Jorge Jarrin on AM570′s DodgerTalk Thursday night. “It’s just like any other offseason.”

“Everything’s been great,” he said. “I’ve had no issues, no setbacks. Everything is looking good going into Spring Training.”

Hate to continue harping on it, but while it’s great that he insists he’s healthy as normal, there’s minimal reason to be confident in an issue-free 2013.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers came to terms on contracts with both A.J. Ellis (1-year, $2 million) and Ronald Belisario (1-year, $1.45 million) on Friday. Both players avoided arbitration by signing, as Chad covered.

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Austin Gallagher was released by the Dodgers. On Friday, he received a 50-game suspension from baseball for testing positive for methylhexaneamine, a banned substance. The team also released Edwin Contreras.

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Sandy Koufax will return to the Dodgers organization as a special advisor to Mark Walter, and while the PR part of this is great and all, stuff like the following passage is far more interesting:

“For our young players and our veterans to be able to tap Sandy’s expertise and counsel during Spring Training and throughout the season will provide yet another tremendous resource in our efforts to strengthen our club,” said general manager Ned Colletti.

Former Dodgers pitcher Josh Lindblom illustrated Koufax’s teaching talents last spring while relating a bullpen session he had in 2010. With the usual pitching coaches offering tips from behind the mound, one noticed Lindblom struggling with his breaking ball release and offered some tips. Lindblom, focused on the plate and not turning around to face the coaches, tried to implement each suggestion.

“One of them says, ‘Imagine a bucket on home plate and throw the curveball into the bucket,’” Lindblom recalled. “It made sense at the time. So I spun the ball into the bucket. It worked. I turned around to see who it was, and I was like, ‘Holy smoke, it’s Sandy Koufax.’

“My focus intensified when I realized it was a guy who had one of the best curveballs in history. I locked in and focused. And when I struggle, I still think about that and another thing he said — ‘See how many times the ball spins before it gets to the plate. That makes you really focus on snapping it off.’

“You hear stories about hitters saying they could hear the laces spinning on Koufax’s fastball. He sees two pitches and makes a suggestion and you make an adjustment that quickly. He’s great at simplifying things. He doesn’t make it rocket science.”

Here’s hoping that some of his lessons rub off on the pitching staff.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers have reached a deal with Time Warner Cable on a television contract worth between $6 billion and $7 billion dollars, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, but that’s not the most interesting part to me.

The Dodgers have agreed with Time Warner Cable on a new television contract that will provide the team with a channel of its own, according to two people familiar with the deal but not authorized to discuss it.

The Dodgers’ deal is expected to be finalized and announced Thursday. The team has not yet submitted the deal to Major League Baseball for approval, but the control of the channel is expected to rest with the Dodgers’ owners rather than with Time Warner.

The Time Warner Cable deal is believed to be worth between $6 billion and $7 billion.

Most are focused on the staggering amount of money, which is certainly amazing, but we already sort of knew the total would be around there since it was rumored that the team was close with FOX on a deal. However, the news to me is that the team will now have its own channel on Time Warner Cable.

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I’m interested for a couple of reasons: one revolves around whether or not this means the Dodgers assume part ownership of the channel, like the courts and MLB apparently want them to (increases their risk), and one revolves around how the hell they are going to fill that channel with content.

From the ownership perspective, does this mean the Dodgers will be forced to take on a share? And if so, how much?

The league believes — and there are indications the court might agree — that the Dodgers must take some element of risk with any money not subject to revenue sharing.

In other words, this deal seems far from over, as there are still a lot of questions to be answered and a lot of details still to come out. Nevertheless, this eases concerns about the payroll going forward, I think.

From the programming perspective, how does this work? Have you ever watched Prime Ticket when there’s no Dodgers on? There’s basically nothing on that channel, so I don’t understand why the team needs their own channel or what they’re going to do with the rest of the time blocks. My hope is that they come up with exclusive content and interesting programs, but judging by the current state of television, I highly doubt it.

This can all be redeemed by giving A.J. Ellis his own show for “Between Two Palm Trees“, where he continues to troll teammates.

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Update

Bill Shaikin now writes that the deal is in the $7 billion to $8 billion range.

Ronald Belisario & A.J. Ellis have agreed to terms with the Dodgers, thus avoiding arbitration, report Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Belisario’s contract is for one year and $1.45 million, while Ellis signed on a one-year, $2 million contract. Assuming he can stay clear of trouble, Belisario figures to be a key component in the back-end of the team’s bullpen (3.09 2012 FIP), but that assumption could be troublesome given his history. Ellis, as made obvious by the meme above, became somewhat of a folk hero in 2012, clocking in at 3.8 WAR for the year seemingly out of nowhere. He’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate that performance, but if he gets anywhere close, he’ll continue to be a bargain at an offense-starved position.

The Dodgers have now not been to arbitration since 2007 with Joe Beimel.

Grantland: Jonah Keri on the riches of the Dodgers and the curse that comes along with it.

That, in a nutshell, is The Curse of Plenty. The Dodgers have more money to spend than anyone, without enough top players to go after. They’ve clogged their roster with merely decent talent at multiple positions because their general manager is impulsive and overeager to spend that money without properly gauging the market for the few elite talents out there. One great way to find those top players is to develop them yourself, but the Dodgers have shipped away several strong prospects to make reactionary trades, such as the Gonzalez deal.

This is still likely to be a good team, one that’s in the hunt for a playoff spot. But because of a few shortsighted moves and a market that can’t provide the great players they crave, the Dodgers may well find themselves back in familiar territory next fall: looking up at the Giants, and wondering where it all went wrong.

Been saying for a while now that all the hype and excitement is nice, but when it comes down to game time, the 2013 Dodgers are no lock, just like the 2012 Dodgers weren’t a lock after all the trades.

Did they get better? Yes, absolutely. However, even on paper, it’s nowhere near the best team in baseball, and it’s certainly no certainty to even win the division. That’s just the reality of the current team.

Now this situation is absolutely preferable to the previous situation, but optimism shouldn’t breed delusion.

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Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Dustin Nosler points out that for all the improvements in the off-season, the Dodgers bench is still mediocre.

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True Blue LA: Looking at A.J. Ellis and arbitration. He seems to be looking at around $3 million. A deserved raise.

True Blue LA: Analyzing Ronald Belisario and arbitration. He seems to be looking at a range between $1 million and $1.5 million. That is, of course, assuming the Dodgers think he can make it back into America. Who knows what his status is since he recently got kicked off his Winter League team in Venezuela.

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Baseball Prospectus: Do you scoff at all those horrid FOX “scouting reports” for pitchers? Of course you do. Well, Sam Miller has got you covered.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

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The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

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If there are any questions, let me know below.

As most everybody knows by now, the Dodgers are in on Zack Greinke and desperately want him to be a part of the club.

Dodgers executives met with Zack Greinke in Los Angeles yesterday, Yahoo’s Tim Brown reported last night.

The Dodgers view Greinke as critical to their pitching staff, Brown reports. Greinke is believed to have enjoyed pitching for the Angels during the second half of the 2012 season, which could increase his interest in staying in the Los Angeles area.

So that puts the Dodgers, Angels, Rangers, and Nationals in the picture for Greinke’s services.

But for all the hubbub about him deciding where to go, nothing much has materialized yet, but that might be about to change during the Winter Meetings.

zack greinkes agent casey close said he’ll know in 24-48 hrs if deal can be done in nashville. no talks serious … yet

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 3, 2012

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Remember that Brian Wilson news that had me fearing for my safety? Well, apparently the Dodgers aren’t interested.

Brian Wilson might want to pitch for the Dodgers, but it appears the interest isn’t mutual.

The colorful and magnificently bearded closer wasn’t tendered a contract for next season by the San Francisco Giants, making him a free agent. Wilson lives in Los Angeles in the off-season, and the Dodgers are among the teams with which he would like to sign, according to multiple reports.

Though the Dodgers won’t publicly comment on free agents, people familiar with team officials’ thinking say they aren’t looking to sign Wilson.

Disaster avoided.

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Perhaps the most interesting pre-Winter Meetings news though is that the Dodgers are shopping Dee Gordon.

The #Dodgers are letting teams know that shortstop Dee Gordon is available, who could be a nice fallback for teams who don’t sign Drew

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 2, 2012

I say interesting because it gives insight into where the Dodgers see him next year (in AAA, probably) and because it creates discussion about how valuable he is to teams.

Before things get out of hand, a friendly reminder to Dodger fans that if you hated him while he was with the Dodgers in 2012, then you probably shouldn’t expect him to be the centerpiece of a package for an elite player.

Personally, I liked him as a prospect a TON less than most did for reasons I’ve explained before, but I recognize the athleticism and the potential he has, and there’s still upside even if he was rushed to the majors. Would I deal a valuable asset of mine for him though? Probably not.

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In what might be the most “we have so much money we don’t know what to do with it” rumor of the off-season, the Dodgers might be interested in A.J. Pierzynski.

The Dodgers could potentially make a play for free agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. L.A. general manager Ned Colletti almost signed Pierzynski as a free agent two years ago before the catcher re-signed with the White Sox, though the chances of Pierzynski signing with the Dodgers now is seen as “a remote possibility, at best” by some Dodgers people.

I discussed this on Twitter a bit, but I don’t quite understand this rumor. There’s a strong case to be made that A.J. Ellis is the better catcher to begin with, and he certainly was superior in 2012. Plus, Pierzynski’s worth was centered on his career-year offensively at age 35.

Besides that though, Ellis has a working knowledge of the team and staff, plus he posted a ~4 WAR season even after playing down the stretch with a knee injury that required surgery.

Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez was once a stud shortstop (based solely on his bat, of course), a young player a franchise could build around. Fast forward to 2012 and Han-Ram was just a struggling player acquired by the Dodgers in an effort to upgrade at a position of need and make a run at 2012.

Acquired for Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough, Hanley arrived as a third baseman swinging the lumber to the tune of a paltry .246/.322/.428/.750 slash line with a .326 wOBA. For the defense-first position of shortstop, that’s acceptable, but for a player of Ramirez’s offensive stature and talent, that’s a far cry from a franchise building block. Additionally, even though he plays a defense-first position, fielding prowess is the last thing anyone would ever note Hanley for.

While he hit better with the Dodgers, primarily as a shortstop, it wasn’t by much, and that came with a worse BB%, a higher K%, and a 48-point bump in BABIP from his 2012 Marlins stint. While his BABIP with the Dodgers moved closer to his career mark, he’s suffered a drop in that area the last couple of years, as it was once routinely north of .325. Factoring in a loss of speed with age, I wouldn’t bet on that BABIP magically leaping back to its earlier resting place. Why? Because with age, attrition, his injury history, and his loss of speed, he won’t exactly be beating them out in droves.

As I touched upon previously, Hanley is a terror with the glove, and it really shows when you take a look at the advanced metrics. Taking on that task reveals a mind-boggling 14 runs that Hanley cost his 2012 employers while manning both short and third. The eye test? Judging by Twitter reactions, I doubt there’s anybody who would argue with the metrics. It’s important, because that strikingly bad showing left Hanley with a paltry ~2.4 WAR, a slight bounce back from his 2011 WAR of ~1.1, but nothing to write home about after a previous string of five seasons in which his WAR never fell below 4.0 and reached as high as 7.5.

The Dodgers best bet moving forward is to have Hanley play third and an actual shortstop who can field the position play short. How Ned Colletti would go about acquiring that shortstop is a different question though, so for now, the best options would appear to be either Dee Gordon or Luis Cruz.

Dee Gordon

Dee Gordon began the 2012 season as the starting shortstop, spent much of the middle portion of the year on the DL with a thumb injury, and ended the year as a pinch-runner. While his offensive limitations were obvious, and his defense was in serious need of improvement, it was hoped that he could scrape by and get on enough to use his fantastic speed to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers and catchers.

Unfortunately for Dee, the Dodgers, and OBP-lovers everywhere, 2012 was a lost season for the 24-year-old. Prior to his injury, Dee was a mess at the plate, with a slash line of just .229/.280/.282/.562 due to his low walk rate (6.1 %), severe lack of power (.053 ISO in 330 PA), and a propensity to hit the ball weakly on the ground (58.9 GB%). Dee returned from injury and headed straight for the minors, and upon his return after rosters expanded, garnered just three plate appearances.

And yet, Don Mattingly allowed Dee to lead-off for much of his 2012 season. A.J. Ellis silently weeps.

Anyway, Dee was just as abominable in the field, costing the Dodgers ~10.5 runs with his glove. His range aside, Dee must work on his hands and accuracy, because becoming a defensive asset at short is his path to being an MLB regular. For now though, his weak bat and weak glove worked to produce a WAR right around -1.0.

The sole area where Dee did contribute was, not surprisingly, the basepaths, where he was worth around ~3.0 runs and stole 32 bases. However, he swiped bags at just an average rate (~76%), so there’s plenty of room for Dee to grow in that respect, unless he wants to be Juan Pierre and steal a lot of bags while not being a great basestealer.

Dee’s role in 2013 is not yet clear. While he could remain in the bigs as a bench player, pinch-runner, or spot-starter, it seems more likely that he would begin the season as the starting shortstop in AAA so the Dodgers can work with him on his offensive, defensive, and basestealing shortcomings.

The upside is still there, but 2012 clearly showed there was a long way to go.

Luis Cruz

As Cruz started 23 games at short — mostly after Gordon’s injury but before Ramirez’s acquisition — he’ll get a brief mention here, although his full write-up can be found in the Season Review for third base.

Despite his overall solid year, Cruz hit a mediocre .235/.267/.388/.655 while captaining the infield, though almost half of his 20 hits in his 85 plate appearances went for extra-bases (two homers and seven doubles). In the field, he was solid, clocking in at ~0.7 runs saved.

If the Dodgers start Cruz at short, he helps the club most there because his defense far surpasses Hanley’s.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

A.J. Ellis

After toiling in the minors for parts of nine seasons with just a couple cups of coffee to show for it, all the while watching the Dodgers treat the catcher position like it was wholly unimportant (trading Carlos Santana, allowing Joe Torre to run Russell Martin into the ground, and Rod Barajas not only being on the team but starting games as the primary backstop), A.J. Ellis finally got his shot in 2012 to be the man behind the dish.

Given the opportunity, he certainly did not disappoint, posting a 4.1 fWAR and putting forth the most productive season of any Dodger catcher since Martin’s 5.2 fWAR campaign back in 2008. In 133 games and just over 500 plate appearances, A.J. hit .270/.373/.414/.787 with a .341 wOBA. He walked in 13% of his plate appearances while whiffing just over 21% of the time, and he impressively clubbed 13 homers after never hitting more than eight in any professional season, including stops in minor-league launching pads like Albuquerque.

Two important notes though: first, Ellis did have a 12.5 % HR/FB mark, and I expect some regression in that area in 2013, probably between that mark and his 2011 mark of 8.3%. Second, A.J. did backslide with the bat in the second half (.285/.404/.425/.830 pre-break & .252/.336/.401/.737 post-break), which is not all that surprising for a guy in his first full season in the MLB who was never been known as a great hitter.

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Generally speaking, defense is difficult to quantify when looking at advanced statistics, and it’s most difficult to quantify for catchers. FanGraphs had Ellis as a slight positive behind the dish, and if you go the route of more traditional numbers, A.J. caught 32.7% of would-be baserunners and allowed eleven passed balls. He struck me as a guy who calls a good game and has a good rapport with the staff, but it’s definitely his offensive production that makes him the best option in an organization and one of the best in the NL.

As he heads into his age-32 season — and in need of a new contract that will see him on the receiving end of a nice raise — if Ellis can improve a bit with the glove, continue to draw walks and get on-base, and keep the power anywhere within range of where it was in 2012, he will once again be a boon for the club.

Matt Treanor

He’s married to an attractive and talented woman and he told off T.J. Simers. So … win.

He hit .175/.281/.282/.563 with a .251 wOBA in 2012 (with a negative fWAR) and will be replaced in 2013 by Tim Federowicz.

Well … I hope.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

A.J. Ellis underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus in his left knee. The information, as far as I can tell, was broken on Twitter by his wife.

Surgery went well Friday. Recovering and flying home Tuesday! #pregnantwith3babies #ipadteddybear twitter.com/Cindyluellis/s…

— Cindy Ellis (@Cindyluellis) October 8, 2012

The necessity of this surgery could probably explain a few of his late-season struggles, and it makes you wonder why he was ridden so hard down the stretch.

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Matt Kemp, following shoulder surgery, is expected to be ready not just for Opening Day but for Spring Training, though he can’t swing a bat until January. He’ll begin rehabbing in about a week to a week and a half.

Per the Dodgers official Twitter, the official diagnosis was: “a tear of the labrum that required repair and some minor debridement of the rotator cuff”.

I still don’t understand why some people refused to believe he was playing hurt when it was painfully obvious to anybody watching, but I think this puts the nail in the coffin on that issue.

As everybody knew going into the game, it was literally a must-win contest for the Dodgers, as the magic number of the Cardinals was one for the final playoff spot in the National League.

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Buster Posey started the scoring in the top of second inning with a homer off Chris Capuano.

A Luis Cruz RBI groundout knotted the game at one, but Joaquin Arias broke the tie with a homer in the top of the third.

Yes, seriously. Joaquin Arias.

Then Marco Scutaro extended their lead in the top of fifth inning with a two-RBI double.

A.J. Ellis, the miracle man, responded with a two-run homer to right-center in the bottom of the seventh to draw the Dodgers within one.

Two batters later, the turning point in the game happened, as Mark Ellis was gunned down by about eleventy billion feet at third base on a ball hit into the gap.

I mean … what the fuck?

Immediately after that, Shane Victorino tripled, and while I always say that baseball results don’t exist in a vacuum … wow it was tough to watch.

—–

In the ninth, as if to torture us further, Andre Ethier singled to lead off the inning against a lefty reliever, which is a miracle in itself.

So bring in Dee Gordon to pinch run and either let him try to steal second or just let A.J. hit, right? Nope, try to bunt with the guy who got the game to within one in the first place! Don Mattingly everybody! His 2012 season coup de grace.

I mock the move because even assuming a successful bunt, there’s a 5.3% drop in the chance the Dodgers win, and that comes without context. With context? A.J. is a quality overall hitter with .375 OBP skills and you’re going to bunt with him for either Elian Herrera or Bobby Abreu? Does this even make sense to traditional managers? Good lord.

Results-wise, sure enough, A.J. got buntfucked. Bunt attempts put him in a two-strike hole and he eventually struck out. As if to taunt us, Dee then stole second successfully, but Abreu flew out to left.

That set up M. Ellis for an attempt at redemption.

What else can you say?

MLB.com: So there was a little blowup in the clubhouse after Tuesday night’s loss here. We heard that was you.

Colletti: I had a passionate exchange in the coach’s room.

MLB.com: What was the message?

Colletti: Were you invited?

MLB.com: No, but I wish I was.

Colletti: It was just a bit of an evaluation.

Two hours later, T.J. Simers of the Los Angeles Times released similar information through an article of his own.

The other night after the Dodgers lost to the Padres, while the media met with Manager Don Mattingly, screaming could be heard from the nearby coaches’ dressing room.

“Passionate” screaming? General Manager Ned Colletti says with a smirk when asked if it was he.

“Yes, I had a passionate discussion with the staff, and then I had another one with a [softer] voice with Donnie. I think every once in a while you just need to recalibrate.”

Say what you want about Colletti (and I have), but he’s never given the impression of being a screaming madman type. Quite the opposite, really. So for this to happen and for these reports to go public, something really must have set him off on that particular day after the game.

While us fans probably shouldn’t overreact to it and jump to the conclusion that there’s some type of breakdown in the front office and/or clubhouse, I do feel it’s okay to wonder what exactly triggered this.

—–

In the top of the ninth in that game, a sequence occurred that ultimately led to the Dodgers losing by a run despite trailing by a one score with nobody out and a runner on second. When the game got to that point, Dee Gordon pinch-ran for A.J. Ellis on second, and everybody knows that Dee has enough speed to make that base represent scoring position on almost any hit. Despite that move, Mattingly opted to pinch-hit with Nick Punto and bunt Dee over to third. After Mark Ellis walked to put runners on first and third, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp went down to end the game.

Mattingly’s decision to bunt Gordon to third increased the chances of the Dodgers scoring in that inning, but decreased their chances of winning by 3-5%. So was that the reason for the blowup? Maybe, but I doubt it. Mattingly makes moves like that all the time, so if it was going to be an issue, one would think this would have come up way sooner than September. Honestly, it’s considered more of a sin by us saber-oriented fans and bloggers than to the front office.

As such, perhaps it was just the culmination of a frustrating season? The team is having general struggles, and that was the day they fell 4.5 games back in the race for the final playoff spot. Odds are that it was probably related to those difficulties, just because I don’t think the GM goes down to rant to the field staff based on single game decisions with any type of regularity.

Then again, maybe it had something to do with how Andre Ethier was used. In the top of the eighth inning, Ethier was allowed to hit against a lefty. Not a big deal, right? Happens all the time. I didn’t think much of it either, but a recent story on the Dodgers official site basically gets the team to admit that the people in charge are having internal discussions about sitting him against lefties.

Another season is almost in the books and the Dodgers are once again mystified by outfielder Andre Ethier’s inability to hit left-handed pitching anywhere near as successfully as he does against right-handers.

“It’s something we seriously have to look at as far as how we approach it. I think he can hit left-handers. The numbers say maybe he can’t and we have to go a different route. Me believing a guy can do something and him doing it are two different things.”

Nothing concrete there to say it was the reason, but you have to read between the lines a little. The issue has obviously been an internal discussion for a while and, perhaps when combined with the status of the team in the standings, it just finally boiled over. In this case, given Mattingly’s consistent stance that Ethier can indeed hit lefties, Colletti might have even be taking the sabermetric position on this one.

Ned Colletti? Statistics over guts? What is this madness?! Look at what Don Mattingly has driven our precious GM to.

—–

Naturally, this is all speculation, but given the justifiably raised expectations of the team and their inability to perform despite the numerous acquisitions, one would think journalists would have made more of an effort to shed light on the situation than to just allow Colletti to get off with dodging the question.

That’s especially true given that the front office and ownership has spent all September telling fans that there’s always next year, yet their actions in handling players and making transactions have told a very different tale.

Seems to me that this would warrant further investigation than to be a throw-in question during a media session. Given that people covering the Dodgers documented and opined about every single little thing Matt Kemp did wrong in 2010 (to give an example), one would think the GM and coaches blowing up at each other as the team collapses in September would be worthy of an investigation.

I know I’d like to hear more about what transpired.

Clayton Kershaw pitched and labored through five innings with an injured left hip, but he managed to limit the Reds to a lone run. Adrian Gonzalez homered twice to emphatically break out of his slump, and he helped power the offense to a win. But perhaps the biggest surprise goes to Juan Uribe, who managed to … uh … get a hit.

Still, despite the team’s best efforts, their playoff chances actually dropped because both the Cardinals and the Brewers were victorious, thus keeping the Dodgers three games back of the final Wild Card spot with nine games to play. Their chances now sit in the 5-7 percent range, depending on what methodology you choose to employ.

—–

Given Kershaw’s performance, I suppose one could look at as if pitching him was the right decision since the team ended up winning, but ten baserunners, including five walks over five innings against the B-lineup of the Reds, didn’t exactly strike me as normal, nor did it really change the fact that the Dodgers playoff hopes are still slim. Honestly, it was just fortunate that the sequencing of his struggles weren’t different, and that the results somehow managed to remain positive.

Simply put, the risk wasn’t worth the reward no matter what happened, because as even Orel Hershiser noted on the ESPN broadcast (Via Eric Stephen), Kershaw indeed struggled with his mechanics:

“We’re watching Clayton Kershaw throw a lot of balls to the right-handed batters box, or away to Votto, or inside to righties. That right hip, as it gets a little fatigued, his upper body is going to take over and it’s going to over-rotate over that hip and he’s going to start pulling pitches like he is. It’s just that little less bracing that makes the upper body go too far and…instead of that arm speed being braced against that front leg and having some direction, there is less bracing on that front side. The arm and the upper body take over, and you happen to pull the ball to your glove side. So if he’s not putting as much weight on it or using as much strength in that front leg for direction, his mechanics will make him start pulling the ball to his glove side.”

As I’ve said on this issue before, I just didn’t see the upside in starting him. This wasn’t a playoff game, it wasn’t a tiebreaker game, and, heck, it wasn’t even a particularly important regular season game.

—–

In news that I enjoyed the most, A.J. Ellis snapped an 0-for-30 skid with a double in the ninth. The Dodgers dugout made light of his streak by asking for the ball.

Adrian Gonzalez was supposed to be the impact difference maker for the team, but he has undoubtedly struggled thus far. Still though, that belies the fact that even if he were hitting as expected, the Dodgers offensive woes would hardly be magically solved.

Since August 25th

Out of the bunch, the two players that surprised me the most were Luis Cruz and A.J. Ellis. Despite the heroics of the former, even he hasn’t been hitting all that well of late, and the latter hasn’t been doing much either, despite always appearing to give reliable plate appearances.

As a team, over the last 21 games (in which they’ve gone 8-13), the Dodgers are hitting .233/.302/.354/.656. With a line like that, it’s amazing that they’re even putting up as many runs as they are.

—–

So where does that leave them going forward for the last two to three weeks of the 2012 season? Well, as a team, they’ve been unlucky recently, and that’s reflected in their projected statistics for the remainder of 2012.

Projected Over Remainder Of 2012

Only M. Ellis and Cruz see a negative regression in BABIP (Shane Victorino remains the same), whereas every other player gets a rather significant bump. Matt Kemp has the largest jump, but his poor performance is probably fueled by his triple threat of injuries more than luck. That aside though, the fact remains that this is a lineup much more talented than what they’re currently showing. Since I don’t believe their inability to “jell” has been having an adverse affect on their performance*, something eventually HAS to click, right?

The numbers say so, let’s just hope it works out that way.

*By all accounts, every player is happier with their situation after the trades than before the trades (besides Victorino), including the players already on the Dodgers. Speculation aside from that is just trying to play armchair psychologist.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello asks whether we should start worrying about Andre Ethier. Go over and read the whole thing, but he brings up points I wanted to address:

The obvious answer is that it’s yet another injury, but I’m not sure it’s that simple. Yes, he strained his oblique in San Francisco at the end of June and landed on the disabled list, and as his return coincided with the start of the second half it is technically accurate to say that “he’s been awful since he was injured.” The thing is, that oblique strain hardly interrupted a hot streak; over his previous 30 games before that, he’d been only at .241/.317/.352 (.669).

Nice. I had brought up on Twitter that maybe he just needed time off after the season to rest his oblique (notoriously naggy injury that can sap power), but he’s been struggling longer than that. Also, I looked at his swing to see if anything has changed, it hasn’t.

Here’s what I mean by that. Check out the percentage of lefty pitching that Ethier has faced over the last six years, shown in the table at right. For years, Ethier routinely faced lefties 25-30% of the time. This year it’s well over 40%, and as I hardly need to tell you, Ethier is absolutely awful against lefty pitching.

In my brain, I called bullshit on this. Either managers are figuring it out or he’s just run into an abnormal amount of lefty starters this season. My gut said it was the latter.

While I don’t have the exact amount of plate appearances against lefty starters for the team, I do have this:

So the dip that MSTI’s chart shows from 2010 to 2011 is expected, and so is a spike in 2012, but Ethier’s spike is around double that of the rest of the team. This suggests that while he has run into a bit of bad matchup luck this year, Ethier is indeed facing a greater diet of lefty relievers.

The league is learning, so when will the Dodgers?

—–

Beyond The Box Score: A frightening look at young stars who went on to disappoint during their primes, centered around Hanley Ramirez. It had me worried for a while, but his line is now at .311/.368/.544/.912 with the Dodgers, so that makes me feel better.

—–

ESPN: A.J. Ellis wrote a guest article at Buster Olney‘s blog and gave insight into what players are feeling around the trade deadline. Good read.

The quote found in the title basically sums up Don Mattingly‘s logic when he was asked about Andre Ethier‘s struggles against lefties, as reported by Eric Stephen of True Blue LA.

Part of the struggles for Ethier have been against left-handed pitchers, against whom Ethier is hitting .218/.282/.315 this season. But don’t expect Mattingly to pinch hit for Ethier in late-game situations any time soon.

“He’s one of our guys. It’s like pinch hitting for Matt if he struggled against righties. It’s the way it is. If we fall with Matt, we fall,” Mattingly said. “We’ll fall with Andre, unless I have an option that says, ‘I’ve got to do this.’ But most of the time I don’t have that option.”

What about the right-handed Jerry Sands, who is hitting .362 with 13 home runs in 44 games since July 1 in Triple A? It doesn’t sound like he would be much of an option either.

“As we get into September we’ll have a few extra guys, we’ll be able to do some things. Every team is going to have guys who are options,” Mattingly said. “If they were tremendous options they wouldn’t be in Triple A.”

I’m not going to pretend I know more about Jerry Sands than Mattingly or the Dodgers organization. I don’t. They surely have inside information on all their players. However, one just has to call bullshit on this specific bit of logic, don’t we?

Ethier has a .218/.282/.315/.597 line against lefties in 2012 and is .238/.298/.351/.650 against them for his career. Juan Uribe, over the last TWO YEARS, has a .196/.260/.287/.546 line. He is currently 0-for-August.

So to say that Sands wouldn’t be a better option for the team at some point … it’s just ridiculous.

—–

1) Replacement options in AAA have already proven that they can hit better than the level of the players up for replacement.

2) If they can’t prove anything at AAA and thus can’t get a call to the MLB, then where are they supposed to prove themselves?

3) There are never better options stuck at AAA than in the MLB? A.J. Ellis says hi to Rod Barajas. Paul LoDuca sends his wishes to Charles Johnson. Ad nauseam.

4) Having greater knowledge doesn’t always mean it’s right, nor does it mean it’s free of bias.

5) It doesn’t have anything to do with contracts and egos? Just performance? That’s why Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier had playing time stolen by Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, and Andruw Jones, right? I believe the organization.

—–

Just terrible, seriously. Please find a better excuse or something, because I hate to believe that’s the actual line of thinking.

Rah rah rah, let’s trade everything to win now but let typical backwards thinking get in the way of making moves that would actually help the team do so when it comes to roster construction.

Awesome.

In case you missed it last night, this is how the Dodgers lost, and it’s … failtacular. That’s the only way I can describe it.

There’s so much to observe in that one GIF/play that it was hard to absorb at the time. Dodgers fans were left asking themselves “What the fuck just happened?” even hours after the game was over.

—–

So what were the fails?

1) Kenley Jansen failed by not calling time after stepping off the mound to kick dirt off his shoes.

2) Kenley Jansen failed by completely turning his back on Everth Cabrera and ignoring him while cleaning his shoes.

At least he owned up to his mistakes after the game.

Jansen: “Dirt got stuck on my shoe. I can’t pitch like that. I forgot to call timeout.” #Dodgers

— Jimmy Bramlett (@JimmyBramlett) July 15, 2012

3) Kenley Jansen failed by making a poor throw home.

4) Greg Gibson failed by being out of position to make the call at home.

5) Greg Gibson failed for punching out the runner at home when the ball was thrown to the backstop.

The confusing call affected the run of play.

More Jansen: “I saw the umpire call him out. I froze from there and tried to go back into it.” #Dodgers

— Jimmy Bramlett (@JimmyBramlett) July 15, 2012

6) A.J. Ellis failed by forgetting to catch the ball first and apply the tag second.

7) A.J. Ellis failed by not going after the ball immediately, instead seemingly pausing to admire the view of the backstop for a split second before reacting.

8) Kenley Jansen failed by not covering home plate, allowing Will Venable to score the winning run.

—–

If any of those things are different, the play probably never happens the way it does, which makes it quite remarkable, all things considered.

The part that gets me most though is that it was a pretty stupid play by Everth Cabrera. I mean the winning run is on second with two outs and he basically gambled that the first three things or so on the fail list would happen. Because as the umpire told all of us loud and clear, a decent throw gets him and ends the game.

Anyway, you can argue with a few of those fails if you want, whatever, but it was just a terrible combination of execution by just about everybody involved in the play except for Will Venable, who did amazing work to score.