Happy Easter!

My Dodgers prospects pre-season rankings for 2013 are here, but it’s a bit of a short and sweet version.

I was planning on re-starting Prospect Profiles again this year, but unfortunately, I got busy and ran out of time.

:-(

However, since I still have the information I’ve gathered through watching the games and what not, I think what I’ll do is just release scouting reports throughout the year along with fellow writer Dustin Nosler. Hopefully by next year I have the time to do them correctly.

Also, if there are any questions or whatever, feel free to e-mail or comment.

Note: I’m likely going to edit this with further info and definitions and whatnot later, but I wanted to get the list out before the season, no matter how late, comparatively speaking.

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Abridged Prospect Thoughts

Yasiel Puig is now a known commodity among Dodger fans, but I was really close to putting Corey Seager ahead of him. Puig is closer to making an impact, but I think Seager has the potential for a more valuable package after factoring in positional scarcity and overall hitting approach.

Hyun Jin Ryu‘s ceiling is limited, but he’s probably the least risky of any prospect besides Paco Rodriguez. I doubt we see Nomomania or Fernandomania (Monstermania?) with him, but above-average is well within reach. Quite frankly, I’ve liked what I’ve seen as spring has progressed. He was siting 90-92 towards the end, which is much much much more promising than earlier when he was 86-88.

I do like Zach Lee, and I think there’s relatively low risk for him, but it’s been a couple years and I haven’t seen anything electric out of him like people have been hoping.

Joc Pederson and Chris Reed didn’t do anything wrong, the farm system just got better.

A lot of people seem confused as to what Onelki Garcia throws besides a hammer curve and a plus fastball, but he told me himself that he has a three-pitch mix and three variations on the fastball. As such, I’m not sure if there’s a rush to pigeonhole him as a reliever already. Certainly he has that floor, but I think there’s more here. A solid season from him could see him near the top in 2014 or by mid-season even.

As readers who have followed since I started Prospect Profiles know, I’ve always liked Matt Magill. I had faith in him initially because of his solid mechanics, plus slider, and projectability, and while it did take time, he finally put it all together. With his fastball taking an uptick, I’m obviously high on him. However, he’s not a finished product by any means. There’s still work to do, but it’s the constant improvement that’s promising.

Relievers aren’t extremely valuable unless they are closer material, but it’s hard for me to pass on a prospect like Paco Rodriguez, who is basically a lock as a MLB contributor, who comes with a setup man ceiling, and who is rapidly closing in on it.

Ross Stripling, Zachary Bird, Garrett Gould, Rob Rasmussen. A quartet of starters, and I like them all in different ways, but 2013 will tell a lot about their futures, I think. They all have promise, but I’d like to see a step forward in terms of results, especially from Gould. Bird reminds me of what I liked in Magill, as they’re both projectable and have breaking balls, but he’s further along in the sense that he’s already sitting high-80s. Stripling is like a college version of Lee to me, where nothing stands out, but I think he could be a mid-rotation type of starter. Rasmussen has a chance to move up if he can miss bats. Normally I wouldn’t rank a guy with his peripherals, but his stuff is better than the numbers show and I’m holding out hope he can use his tools to generate more swings and misses.

Not gonna pretend I’ve see a ton of Jesmuel Valentin, but I do like what little I have seen, and other reports have backed it up. I’m not normally a fan of draft prospects initially touted for defensive tools, but after you get past that, he does swing it better than I think some advertised.

Chris Withrow is going to dedicate himself to a relief role, and if he can stay healthy, I expect big things from him in 2013. His stuff was immense as a starter, but he just couldn’t harness it effectively. He already brought his ERA down in 2012 to ~2.5 as a reliever from ~6.0 as a starter, and the hope is that the relief role will make it easier for him to focus and command better. I expect his stuff to be electric in relief and to miss plenty of bats, so the control will write his story.

Still think Alex Castellanos can be a bench bat or a second-division starter. Basically, I think he can hit enough to be solid. A solution for a team with the Dodgers payroll? No, but worthwhile nevertheless. Tim Federowicz is a similar player, just at a more valuable position and probably more of a sure thing as a contributor. I don’t think he’s better than a backup on a playoff-caliber team, but there’s value in a glove-first reserve that might be able to hit a bit.

Josh Wall, Steven Ames, Scott Griggs, and Jose Dominguez are all relievers, but I do think they all could be good ones. Wall has a chance to contribute in 2013, and has plus stuff, but could improve his command within the zone. Ames, also a potential 2013 contributor, has lesser stuff but has better control. Griggs has a plus fastball and slider that should miss bats at any level, but it’s a matter of control. Think of him as a less advanced version of Withrow. Dominguez’s upside speaks for itself as he touches triple digits, and while his control is a concern, I’m more worried about whether his secondary pitches will come along.

I was high on Scott Barlow last year because he was sitting in the low-90s and could reach back for mid-90s. Plus, he had four pitches and a breaking ball that flashed plus. The slider and change were works in progress, but there were the makings of a starter in there. Unfortunately, he had Tommy John surgery, so that’s obviously a setback, but if he can get back to where he was, there’s no reason he can’t find his mid-rotation upside again, which would loom large in a system that lacks depth (if you couldn’t tell from that reliever run).

Angel Sanchez was one of my bigger disappointments, as I really saw him taking steps forward over the course of 2011. Most people are dropping him due to his performance in 2012, but for me, the ERA is whatever. What concerned me is that he was still unable to turn his swing-and-miss stuff into actual results against A-ball competition. I still think he can bounceback though because his arm strength remains, hence the rating here.

Darnell Sweeney … lazy comp … must resist … DEE GORDON! Okay, that seems like stereotypical racial profiling, but if you look at him, it’s the first thing that comes to mind because of the build. He has holes in his swing, but he can surprise you with his pop and has some projection. Hopefully he actually grows into his body, unlike Gordon.

Not sure Jharel Cotton is on a lot of lists, and that’s understandable, but I thought I would give my biggest potential 2013 mover a spot. If he can continue to build on his arm strength and remain sitting in the low-90s and touching 94-95, he could open a lot of eyes this year.

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Others To Watch

Julio Urias
Alex Santana
Jeremy Rathjen
Aaron Miller
Andres Santiago
O’Koyea Dickson
Jesus Valdez

Prospect Rankings Thoughts

Zach Lee has the projection to eventually be a #1/#2, but his stuff right now definitely resembles more of a #2/#3. Hence his production in low-A.

I liked both Webster and Eovaldi as sleepers a while ago, but I gave the edge to Allen Webster over Nate Eovaldi because although there’s more risk to Webster, I think there’s more upside as well. Eovaldi can improve his breaking pitches, but not enough to be more than a #3 starter, and I think ending up as a reliever is a definite possibility.

I have Joc Pederson higher than most, and I acknowledge the risk, but I liked his swing, his plate discipline, and he’s probably going to be good defensively. If the power projection comes through, he’ll end up as a solid regular.

Angel Sanchez is currently what everybody assumes Chris Reed will be. Both can pitch in the mid-90s, have good secondary pitches, and possess a solid tertiary offering. They are basically the same to me, but Sanchez actually accomplished something as a professional, so he gets the edge. It’s odd that people bag on Sanchez because he might be a reliever down the road but don’t pay any attention to the fact that while Reed has the pitches, he hasn’t even made the transition from reliever to starter yet.

Garrett Gould is a solid prospect that does everything well but has concerns about how his stuff will play against advanced bats.

Even though he’s a reliever, Josh Lindblom clocks in so high because it’s rare to have a guy on a prospect list that has posted a 2.73 ERA and 2.35 FIP in 29.2 innings over 27 appearances at the MLB level.

Chris Withrow has a ton of potential, but he’s going to be 23 and I have a hard time believing his control with improve drastically. However, it just needs to get a bit better for him to be MLB useful.

Gorman Erickson might be a surprise this high, but there’s a lot to like from big switch hitting catchers with pop, plate discipline, consistent contact, and decent defensive skills. A worry of mine is that the Dodgers don’t seem to like him, as they favor defensive catchers who can’t hit, but hopefully he hits enough in 2012 to change their minds.

Alfredo Silverio and Alex Castellanos both have the tools to succeed, but you’ll have to excuse me for not being excited about their plate discipline, and the strikeout rate of Castellanos is scary. Silverio has made me believe he can be a major leaguer, but I don’t know if he’ll ever be regular. Similarly, I think Castellanos’ bat only plays at second, so it’s important to me that he can stay at the position.

Shawn Tolleson could be better than Lindblom, but there are more question marks there with him, including experience and his almost dangerous throwing motion.

James Baldwin and Scott Barlow are the upside guys. Both could be out of the top 25 by November or be in the top 10, depending on how their 2012 goes. Following them are Tim Federowicz and Steven Ames, both of whom aren’t impact players but look to be a solid bet to be contributors.

Blake Smith and Angelo Songco are one to two years behind where most regulars are at this stage in their careers (well Songco isn’t that bad, but he lacks the raw tools), so they will always have questions about competition level until they hit at the MLB level. Speaking of that, it’ll be interesting to see if Scott Van Slyke ever gets a chance. I think he can hit, but he’s gonna have to hit a ton to be relevant.

Aaron Miller and Ethan Martin both need breakout 2012 seasons in a bad way. Miller simply needs to regain his old stuff and stay healthy. Martin needs to find his mechanics and the strike zone. Upside will only take them so far as they age.

Jonathan Garcia has always been an underdog favorite of mine. He wrecked the Midwest League early on but got exposed later by breaking balls. Realistically, he’ll have to hit a lot because he has little else of value, but he has surprising pop and a solid swing. O’Koyea Dickson is another prospect that will have to be rushed because of his age, but if he hits like he’s capable, he could reach high-A in 2012. I really like his swing and I think he has good pop, but he’s not tall and is stuck at first base, so there’s a ton of pressure on his bat.

Much like Webster and Eovaldi, Matt Magill was a favorite of mine from before, but unlike them, his stuff hasn’t exploded quite the same. Still, he has above average velocity and can miss bats with his off-speed stuff, but he’ll have to perform at AA to gain any respect. I’m interested to see if he progresses at that stage or becomes Tim Sexton.

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Honestly, I thought it would be a lot worse than this. Fortunately though, the Dodgers have a ton of potential contributors, even if most of them are clocking in on the pitching side of the ledger.

The top 10 is quite solid from my view, even if it does lack huge upside. However, after that the Dodgers are stuck with a bunch of guys who are more likely to end up as part-timers or utility players than regulars. My hope is that one out of the seven or eight bats that are too old for their level but still produce in the minor leagues eventually becomes a regular.

No, there’s not a ton of star potential, but given the budget restraints, the complete lack of care in the international market, and the mass graduation of talent in 2011, it could have been a ton worse.