Yesterday, the Dodgers dealt Aaron Harang to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez and effectively cleared room in their bullpen for the return of Chad Billingsley on Wednesday.

The Dodgers on Saturday made official their trade of pitcher Aaron Harang and cash to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez.

Oddly enough though, the Rockies designated Harang for assignment immediately, so he’ll likely be elsewhere soon.

As for Hernandez himself, he’s certainly a more proven option than Tim Federowicz, though better is arguable. He’s about a league-average hitter (96 OPS+) for his career, but he’s 37 now and at age 36 he hit .217/.247/.353/.605 with the Rockies. He used to be a solid defender, but that has fallen off considerably with age and is probably a downgrade from T-Fed in that regard. Essentially, he has to hit to be useful, and the Dodgers are banking that he can regain his form, because he could be useful in relieving A.J. Ellis and providing much needed pop off the bench if he’s right.

More than anything though, this was about dumping Harang to clear room in the bullpen so that the return of Billingsley wouldn’t result in something like Paco Rodriguez having to be sent down. So from that perspective, even if Hernandez tanks, they still have T-Fed in the minors and it doesn’t affect the team much.

Money-wise, as you would imagine, the Dodgers are eating salary.

Counting Sunday, Mar. 31, six days of the 183-day season have lapsed. That means the Dodgers are on the hook for $3,095,082 of Hernandez’s salary, and the Rockies responsible for $6,770,492 for Harang, plus the $2 million buyout in 2014, though Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Dodgers would send $4.25 million to Colorado.

So, instead of having $9 million guaranteed to Harang, the Dodgers will instead pay approximately $7,574,590 ($3,095,082 for Hernandez, $229,508 for Harang, and $4.25 million to Colorado). Subtract the major league salary that would have been paid to Tim Federowicz and the Dodgers save approximately $2 million and upgraded their catching depth.

So the team saves ~$2 million but will pay yet another player to perform elsewhere. It’s not a significant deal in terms of impact, but I get the feeling that when all is said and done about the pre-Richie Rich Ned Colletti era, boy are a lot of the contracts that were handed out going to look ridiculous in retrospect.

Ronald Belisario & A.J. Ellis have agreed to terms with the Dodgers, thus avoiding arbitration, report Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Belisario’s contract is for one year and $1.45 million, while Ellis signed on a one-year, $2 million contract. Assuming he can stay clear of trouble, Belisario figures to be a key component in the back-end of the team’s bullpen (3.09 2012 FIP), but that assumption could be troublesome given his history. Ellis, as made obvious by the meme above, became somewhat of a folk hero in 2012, clocking in at 3.8 WAR for the year seemingly out of nowhere. He’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate that performance, but if he gets anywhere close, he’ll continue to be a bargain at an offense-starved position.

The Dodgers have now not been to arbitration since 2007 with Joe Beimel.

The Dodgers have agreed to sign left-handed reliever J.P. Howell on a one-year deal worth $2.75 million, with performance bonuses that can take that salary higher, according to Dylan Hernandez and Buster Olney.

If finalized, J.P. Howell’s deal with the #Dodgers would be worth $2.75 million: lat.ms/1398TrN

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) January 5, 2013

J.P. Howell agreed to terms with the Dodgers. A left-hander for a very deep bullpen.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 5, 2013

Howell gets a one-year deal with LAD, for just under $3 million in base salary, and performance bonuses.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 5, 2013

After missing the end of 2009, all of 2010, and parts of 2011 with a shoulder injury, Howell remains a bit of a mystery, but one with upside. From 2008 to 2009, he was a ~2 WAR reliever annually, which is rather remarkable for a reliever who was generally not a closer. He always struggled with control a bit, but his success was powered by his ability to miss bats.

That segues perfectly into my concerns about his performance going forward. Since he has returned from injury, his strikeout rate his plummeted, which is understandable in 2011, but there wasn’t any significant improvement in that area in 2012. Thus, while his ERA improved significantly from 2011 to 2012 (6.16/3.04), his FIP didn’t (5.41/4.78), resulting in a replacement-level player WAR (-0.75/0.25).

His fit with the Dodgers doesn’t make a ton of sense on the surface, as the team does have Scott Elbert, Paco Rodriguez, and probably Ted Lilly, but the Dodgers can afford to spend money on a veteran and use one of Elbert/Paco as depth in the minors. As such, there’s little risk here, and some upside if he ever gets back to his previous healthy state. However, projection-wise, it’s hard to imagine him providing a significant upgrade over the demoted options, so this is a move that’s made more for depth than anything else.

The Dodgers have acquired Cardinals utility man Skip Schumaker in exchange for minor-league shortstop Jake Lemmerman, according to Mike Petriello.

Tonight — well, tomorrow, perhaps, by the time it’s official — that may change. Multiple sources tell me that the Dodgers are in agreement with St. Louis on a deal that would send minor league shortstop Jake Lemmerman for veteran Skip Schumaker.

This has been rumored for a while, and back when it was announced that a deal was likely at some point, I gave my thoughts on Schumaker.

He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.

Not so thrilled, really.

He’ll be 33 next season and had a .276/.339/.368/.707 line in 2012, as well as a career .288/.345/.377/.722 line. Other than that though, the upside is that he has a pronounced platoon split, hitting .305/.359/.403/.762 against righties in his career versus .205/.276/.245/.521 against lefties. So if he’s used carefully, there’s offensive value to extract.

Unfortunately, as stated in the quote above, while he can play a few positions, he’s really not good at any of them, so he lacks true versatility, IMO. Additionally, as we learned when the Dodgers acquired both Hyun Jin Ryu and Zack Greinke, their 40-man roster is now full, so a corresponding move will have to be made.

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Jake Lemmerman is a shortstop that was selected by the Dodgers in the fifth round of the 2010 MLB Draft. 2012 was his age 23 season, and he hit .233/.347/.378/.725 in AA.

Prior to 2012, I had him outside of my top 25 prospects in the system, and his 2012 didn’t do anything to change that.

As such, while I’m not exactly thrilled with Schumaker occupying a roster spot, the return for him wasn’t significant.

After expected rumors of the Dodgers and Hyun Jin Ryu’s agent Scott Boras being far apart, the two sides eventually agreed to a contract worth $36 million over a six-year span, according to Jon Heyman. As far as incentives go, Ryu can earn up to $1 million per year based on innings pitched and can increase his base salary (via Dylan Hernandez) if he does well in the Cy Young Award voting. Additionally, Tim Brown reports that if he throws 750 innings over his first five years, he can opt out of the deal. The Dodgers won the rights to negotiate with Ryu for $25.7 million via the posting system, and that money will now be sent to the Hanwha Eagles.

We’ve gone over this on the site previously, but reports on Ryu’s potential range from a middle of the rotation starter to a middle reliever, but most agree he has the talent to slot in around #3/#4 in a rotation. Granted, he hails from the KBO and has no MLB track record, so he’s riskier than those on the free-agent market, but given the current market and the Dodgers payroll, it seems to be an acceptable risk to take for an investment that totals a little over $10 million annually to lock up all of his prime years.

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As for the state of the rotation, this now means that, in addition to Ryu, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly in the stable. Furthermore, rumor has it that the team isn’t done yet and would still like to acquire another starter.

The acquisition of yet another starter would leave Ryu potentially questionable to enter the rotation right off the bat, especially if Billingsley is healthy and they can’t find trade partners for both Capuano and Harang. Still, that’s an awful good problem for the Dodgers to have, and given Billingsley’s questionable health, the stockpiling of starters is obviously by design as well. Regardless of where Ryu starts off the season though, he should slot into the back of the Dodgers rotation at some point if he’s as good as most expect him to be.

The Dodgers have signed Zack Greinke to a 6-year, $147 million contract, according to Jon Heyman, with Gina Miller getting the scoop. The $24.5 million average annual value of the deal makes him the highest-paid pitcher in baseball on a per-year basis.

If you’ve followed me in years past, you’d know that I usually do some type of efficiency analysis in terms of whether the deal makes sense on a dollars per WAR basis, but at this stage, with the 2013 payroll already around $235 million, I’m not sure it matters as much.

The important part now is whether or not Greinke is a quality pitcher and whether he makes the Dodgers better, and those questions aren’t even debatable.

After battling back from anxiety issues and becoming a full-time starting pitcher again, he has averaged 5.7 FIP WAR and 4.8 RA WAR over the past five years. Needless to say, he’ll slot in nicely behind Clayton Kershaw in the rotation, and even looking if we do look at it from the $/WAR perspective, at a $5 million per WAR rate and growing, it hardly seems like an overpay.

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Update: Jim Bowden said on Twitter that the contract has an opt-out clause after three years, and that it also has a provision in case he’s traded.

According to a Dodger source:Greinke has a full player opt out clause after 3 yrs & if traded during contract he can opt out at end of yr

Not sure how legit this is considering that he was the one shilling the hardest of the “Greinke to the Rangers” crowd, but if it’s true, does it change anything?

Not really.

Obviously the risk here shifts entirely to the team, much like with the J.D. Drew situation, but if he pitches excellent and opts out at 32 to look for a new contract, either the Dodgers let him walk and go after another front-end guy, or give him a minor raise/extension to retain his services, much like the Yankees did with C.C. Sabathia.

I’d rather not have it in there, but it’s not a deal-breaker or anything.

The MLB has confirmed that the Dodgers won the bidding on the rights for Korean left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu, just as Mike Petriello said yesterday, despite ESPN refusing to credit him.

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Since Scott Boras is his agent, Boras won’t care about the posting fee and will look to gouge the Dodgers for as much as possible, and his PR campaign has already started.

Dylan Hernandez spoke with him and the quotes by Boras gave insight into why I previously said this is just the start of things.

Ryu Hyun-jin could immediately be a No. 3 starter in a major league rotation, according to his agent.

“He’s ready to pitch in the big leagues right now,” Scott Boras said. “He’s not a developmental project.”

Translation: “He can help you from Opening Day, so pay him more money.”

“We have to strategically plan out his career,” Boras said.

Among the considerations: compensation and when Ryu can become a free agent.

Because Ryu is only 25, he could sign a shorter contract that would allow him to enter the free-agent market while still in the prime of his career. Or he could remain in Korea for two more seasons, after which he would be a free agent and wouldn’t be subjected to the posting system.

“Is it a good business decision to make the jump now or wait for free agency?” Boras asked.

Translation: “Here is our leverage angle, so pay him lots of money otherwise we’re taking our ball and going home.”

More Boras: “If he doesn’t sign, the posting fee will dramatically increase next year.”

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) November 10, 2012

Translation: “Here’s more leverage foundation! Plus a vague monetary threat!”

I’m not sure I understand this logic though, because technically he would lose leverage due to being a year closer to out-and-out free agency. But hey, he has to say whatever he can to give his client bargaining chips in a situation where he has little to none, especially given the Dodgers finances and rotation situation.

Ryu Hyun-jin wants to be a starter in the major leagues, according to Boras.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) November 10, 2012

Translation: “He will throw a lot of innings, so pay him more money.”

This makes sense though, since he’s a starter and always has been.

I’ve observed people arguing over whether or not he’s a starter or a reliever, but I don’t see this as up for debate. Even if you think he has reliever stuff, as Keith Law does, nobody would be so dumb to drop $25.7 million on rights if they saw him as a situational lefty. He’ll start in the MLB if signed, and rightly so.

All in all, nothing out of the ordinary here, though I do have concerns that he wants #3 starter type money, as apparently those types feel they can demand six years and $90 million in this market.

The Dodgers have won the rights to Korean left-handed starting pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu with a bid of $25.7 million, according to Mike Petriello.

Earlier today, I linked to a summary of thoughts on Hyun Jin Ryu, which ranged from preferring him as a reliever to comparisons to David Wells, though the latter was primarily on the basis of his body type.

A 25-year-old Tommy John survivor, the Dodgers have to be expecting him to start, and reports have him sitting between 87-92 mph with two solid average breaking balls in a curve and a slider, and a plus out-pitch in his change-up. Even the reports that like him pencil him in as a #4 or #5 type, but the Dodgers will end up paying him like a #3, and I think his profile could reach that status as he adjusts to the league.

Given that Scott Boras is his agent, this is only the start of things, as he figures to get a lot more expensive than this. Honestly, I’m not sure anybody expected his bidding price to go this high, but given the free agent market and trade scenarios, I suppose the Dodgers preferred this option over the rest.

Brandon League has signed a three-year, $22.5 million deal with the Dodgers, according to MLB.com and … everybody.

The Dodgers re-signed reliever Brandon League to a three-year contract for $22.5 million Tuesday, and general manager Ned Colletti said the right-hander will be the closer.

MLB Trade Rumors provides further information on the option.

10:24pm: The 2016 vesting option can escalate from $7.5MM to $9MM based on games finished, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). League can also earn an additional $500K per year based on games finished.

8:27pm: League’s option for 2016 is worth $7.5MM and will vest if he finishes 55 games in 2015, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Not that worried about the option because I doubt it’s going to be a factor given the volatility of the position. Even if it does come into play, that means his contract to that point has been a rousing success, so I don’t see it as an issue.

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As some of you know, I wrote about this potential deal the other day, and I still don’t feel much different.

League is a career 3.60 ERA and 3.81 FIP reliever, while the average reliever put up a 3.67 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 2012. Both his career strikeout and walk rates aren’t anything to write home about, clocking in a 6.71 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. So there’s immediate concern there that he’s basically a solid, average reliever.

The upside is that he’s posted a 2.78 FIP in 2011 and a 3.19 FIP in 2012, but he has proven to be anything but consistent over his career, and his mechanics fade in and out seemingly at random, so choosing him as the guy to invest multiple years in seems like an iffy plan at best.

Factor in the recent history regarding relievers on multi-year deals, and it looks downright frightening.

Since 2009, when he became a full-time reliever, he has posted WAR totals of 0.7, 0.3, 1.1, and 1.0. So value-wise, the team is basically paying him like he’s about to have career years in all of 2013, 2014, and 2015.

Additionally, he struggles against lefties (.765 OPS LHB/.590 OPS RHB), which Jose Valverde showed could be a disaster in the making. It’s problematic if League is deployed as the closer, which Ned Colletti apparently plans to do, and Don Mattingly probably won’t be able to work around the platoon split because he isn’t exactly known as a keen bullpen strategist.

Hell, throw the statistics out of the window if you want. This is a guy who lost his job as a closer with the Mariners LAST YEAR, and now he’s being signed to hold onto the job for three years in the face of multiple pitchers who are already better than him.

And yeah, I’ve heard about the gigantic payroll and how overpaying him doesn’t matter and yadda yadda yadda. I’ll address those notions in a separate post, but for now I’ll just say that it’s hard for me to simply wish away the specifics of this contract in a bout of cognitive dissonance because I want to believe in the fairy tale that payroll efficiency doesn’t matter.

Look, he’ll probably be a fine reliever, just like Jamey Wright was in 2012 (seriously, I was wrong about him, compare the two in 2012), but unless something drastic changes in 2013, he’s not worth the money he’ll be getting, and I just continue to wonder when that trend catches up with the team.

The Dodgers finalized a trade today that will send Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Cash.

I gave my initial reaction to the deal yesterday, but after an in-depth analysis, did anything change?

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Adrian Gonzalez

The Dodgers are paying ~$130 million for six years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 26 WAR or 4.2 WAR per year.

Will he be worth it? I’m quite confident he will be, despite issues that others have concerns about.

In 2011 with the Red Sox, he hit .338/.410/.548/.957, posting a ~6.5 WAR season. He got off to a slow start in 2012, however, and thus only has a .300/.343/.469/.812 line. However, he has come on of late, and he projects to finish the year on a .301/.369/.504/.873 tear, so I don’t think he’s at the start of a precipitous decline. The primary concern is that his career 10.7 BB% has dipped to 5.9%, and it will need to rebound for him to live up to his usual standard. With that said, his batting projection puts his OPS around .860 or so, which presumes a gain in walk rate.

His fielding has never been in doubt, as he is a plus defender across all advanced metrics and I don’t think anybody would argue with it. He does lack foot speed though, which is why his baserunning total comes in low.

That’s not to say there’s minimal risk though, which makes sense, since he wouldn’t have been let go otherwise. He’s in his age-30 season right now, and aging curves tell us that he’s likely to regress over the course of his contract, as the mid-30s are generally the danger area. On the upside, I don’t see a reason to be concerned about injuries, as he has never played in less than 156 games in a full season.

Factoring everything above, A-Gon comes out to about a 5 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 27 WAR after accounting for age regression. While he won’t be providing much surplus value beyond what he’s being paid by the Dodgers, he should be well worth the acquisition, especially considering the barren first base market and the lack of internal options. The A-Gon part of this deal is cause of excitement.

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Carl Crawford

The Dodgers are paying ~$105 million for five years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 21 WAR or 4.1 WAR per year.

Unlike A-Gon, where I have trouble seeing how he’s not worth it, I have trouble seeing how Crawford will even get anywhere close to worth it.

For the past two seasons, Crawford has been … uh … a mess. He’s been worth a total of around 0.5 WAR, which needless to say doesn’t bode well for his 4.1 WAR goal. Even if you completely believe that his skills are intact, his body throws a sizable wrench into the equation to say the least, and it doesn’t help then that he may miss a few months of next season. He was projected to post a .283/.323/.446/.769 line for the rest of 2012, which is quite generous since his actual line has been .260/.292/.419/.711 for 2011 and 2012. For the projection, I put him around a .780 OPS, which is almost what he posted in his last few years with the Rays.

On the basepaths, despite his basestealing ability, he’s never been a plus baserunner, but he does clock in on the positive side of the ledger due to his speed. His defense will probably generate the biggest debate, as it was once a plus tool, but it has since regressed to average at best across the advanced metrics due to injury or whatever else. Personally though, I think he should benefit from the bigger spaces in Dodger Stadium, so he should return to form. However, it would be dishonest to just grant him plus status after two clear years of regression, so I made him just good instead of elite.

Like Gonzalez, Crawford is in his age-30 season and will regress over the course of his contract, including the dreaded mid-30s. Unlike Gonzalez, there’s ample reason to worry about Crawford’s health, and his projected playing time reflects that, clocking in at ~550 plate appearances.

Factoring everything above, Crawford comes out to about a 2.9 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 12 WAR after accounting for age regression.

So he should be worth a bit more than half his contract, and when that contract totals in excess of $100 million that burns quite a bit. Unlike at first base, the options in the outfield, either short-term or long-term, to get better value were plentiful. Therefore, I can’t see how anybody would be excited about taking him on. The “he’s better than Juan Rivera” argument only works for this year because the Dodgers would have options in the offseason, and since Crawford won’t be playing this year there’s really no defense for this. I’m assuming a lot in his favor as it is, and if he’s right he should be a decent player for the team until late in the deal, but he certainly won’t be worth what the Dodgers are paying him unless lighting strikes.

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Josh Beckett

The Dodgers are paying ~$35 million for two years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.75 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 7.5 WAR or 3.5 WAR per year.

I’m actually more confident that Crawford will make meaningful contributions than Beckett for reasons that go beyond statistics, so needless to say, I’m skeptical about him earning his keep.

In 2012, Beckett has a 5.23 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA. That’s about the profile of Bud Norris of the Astros at the moment … if Norris was set to make $16 million annually.

The reason I only mention 2012 is this report by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Goldstein says that Beckett’s 70 fastball has turned into a 55/60. His once-biting curve has lost a similar amount of stuff: Goldstein reports that he would be “leery” of putting a 60 rating on it and might call it a 50-plus. His cutter, he explains, is at best a 40. Given how often he throws it, the cutter could be something of an Achilles’ heel for Beckett going forward.

Goldstein is not terribly optimistic about Beckett’s performance going forward and grades him as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter going forward.

That scouting report is backed by fastball velocity that has dropped from 93.8 MPH for his career to 91.6 MPH, and a strikeout rate that has gone from a career 22.2% to 17.2%. I’m not sure how anybody could reasonably expect him to bounce back to 4-5 WAR levels with that profile.

Like Gonzalez and Crawford, Beckett isn’t young. He’s in his age-32 season, is showing signs of decline, and is under contract into his mid-30s. There’s reason to worry about injury too, as he missed significant time (60-day DL) two years ago with a back strain and was placed on the DL for shoulder inflammation this year. Since he’ll likely only get to ~160 innings this year, I think giving him ~175 is generous enough.

Factoring everything above, Beckett comes out to about a 2.1 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 4 WAR after accounting for age regression.

Like Crawford, he projects to be worth a bit more than half what he’s being paid, but it burns a lot less because it’s only a two year commitment after 2012. Of course, there’s opportunity cost here as well, because there’s always bargain options that can provide 1.5 to 2.5 WAR for a lot less than what Beckett will be paid, as Chris Capuano and the likes have proven. I suppose there’s upside hidden deep in Beckett’s profile in that maybe he regains his stuff, but I can’t bet on it due to his age. Besides, both his numbers and the scouting match each other, and that’s usually a recipe for accuracy. Hope for the best, but I wouldn’t expect anything better than a #4 starter.

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Nick Punto

The Dodgers are paying ~$2 million for one year and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 0.5 WAR or 0.4 WAR per year.

Don’t think I need a table for this one, as it’s purely to give the Dodgers a utility guy, I believe. Punto is at .200/.301/.272/.573 for 2012 and is projected to hit .229/.327/.271/.598 the rest of the way, which matches his age profile and career hitting ability. He’s above average on the bases and can play second, third, and short, where he grades out as a plus defender at every position.

His value on the bench is contingent on the Dodgers finding guys that can hit because he’s purely a defensive replacement or a spot starter. Still, he’s a solid utility guy because of his defense and versatility. He’ll be serviceable, which is all he’s being paid for, so it should be fine.

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Rubby De La Rosa

As a starter last year, he posted a 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.55 xFIP/3.85 SIERA with a 23.6 K% and a 12.2 BB% before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. After rehabbing for a year, he’s back and so is the velocity, so it seems the only thing lost was a year of development. Regardless, he has plus velocity and two potential swing-and-miss off-speed pitches in the change and slider. He’s rotation quality right now, and with command improvement, I don’t see why he couldn’t be a #2 or #3 rotation option.

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Allen Webster

After being demoted to the bullpen early in 2012, he may now be every bit the prospect that Rubby or Zach Lee is for the reasons Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus details here:

“It’s all there,” said a National League scout who was taken off his coverage to see the team. “When everything is going, he has three average-to-plus pitches and knows what to do with them.” The scout noted that Webster’s game has matured, as well. “He knows he has a really good—and potentially special—changeup, but he’s not over-relying on it anymore,” the scout explained. “It’s like he finally figured out that setting that pitch up with 92-94 mph heat is the best way to go about it, and his curveball has improved as well. He used to get over the ball and it wouldn’t finish, but now it’s breaking through the zone much better.”

His ceiling seems to be in the #2 range as well, with #3 to #4 a more likely destination. He should test the waters at the MLB level this year, and could be ready in 2013.

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Jerry Sands

For his career, his line at AAA Albuquerque is .291/.363/.557/.921 … but it’s Albuquerque. Still, I like his chances of becoming a major league contributor, though I’m not sure he’ll be worthy of holding down a left field spot for a team like the Red Sox. There’s a shot he becomes a regular, but I see him as more of a platoon guy or temporary starter as opposed to a long-term fit there.

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Ivan De Jesus

A .301/.354/.416/.770 line at Albuquerque paired with his .231/.282/.277/.559 career line with the Dodgers doesn’t bode well for him. Furthermore, while he can play second, short, and third, he’s only above average at second, so I’m not sure he even fits as a utility guy.

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James Loney

He’s been worth 0 to -1 WAR this season while making $6.5 million and he’s a free agent to be. Bye.

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So the Dodgers are paying ~$272 million to get the four mentioned players from the Red Sox, and the Red Sox will be kicking in about ~$12 million back to the Dodgers. So the team is paying for ~55 WAR of production, but is getting about ~43 WAR in value (~$212 million). As such, just by taking on the contracts alone, they figure to be looking at a surplus value around -$50 million. Then factor in the two top prospects, one solid prospect, a fringe prospect, and the corpse of James Loney, and you’re looking at quite a deficit to overcome, especially if any of them develop and hit their ceilings.

On the other hand, this undoubtedly makes the Dodgers better in the short-term, perhaps by as much as 7 or 8 wins in 2013. It should solidify the squad as a playoff favorite for this year and the next two years, perhaps even longer than that, depending on the decline phases of Crawford/Gonzalez.

While I understand that fans are excited by the prospects of that immediate improvement, I just have to wonder whether the Dodgers couldn’t do better if given ~$260 million to spend and the prospect package in question. Of the players received, only Adrian Gonzalez really fills a hole that couldn’t have been addressed in either 2013 or 2014. Then there’s the potential problems with payroll flexibility and the luxury tax that I’ve mentioned before. Also, as you can see through Jay Jaffe‘s work here, they’re really hemmed up in the short-term payroll-wise, and they now have $90 million sewn up in four players through 2017, which unfortunately doesn’t even include Clayton Kershaw yet.

As such, fans should surely enjoy the ride this year and in the immediate future, but it’s easy to justify significant concern over the long-term future of the roster, as all the risk in this deal is being taken by the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and Cash from the Red Sox for Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

Source confirms @gordonedes report: #Dodgers “close” to obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: #Dodgers have agreed to send Allen Webster, James Loney, Jerry Sands, Ivan De Jesus, and Rubby De La Rosa to #RedSox. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: If #Dodgers – #RedSox blockbuster occurs — and it is “close” — Boston would send some cash to LA. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

I’ll have a more detailed update on this trade later on tomorrow, but as of right now, I’m floored, honestly.

—–

My first impression though is to say that the trade isn’t for the better of the Dodgers overall. Yes, it makes them a better team immediately, but they likely now have limited financial flexibility for years to come. Ironically, that’s the reason the Red Sox did this deal to begin with.

Before calling me an idiot and asking me what the significance of that payroll worry is because the Dodgers now have money, maybe read this first on the Dodgers payroll and the luxury tax.

Additionally, the Dodgers are sending two top prospects to the Red Sox, both of which could contribute soon, in Rubby and Webster. Sands is certainly not a regular at this point, but he’s ready to try now, and he could develop into one. De Jesus could be a decent utility guy and Loney is whatever.

—–

The contract obligations the Dodgers are assuming total in excess of $250 million AFTER this year is over, and the team is giving up two of their best prospects and another solid one, so unless the cash coming back is significant, then this probably leaves the team better off in the short-term but worse off in the long-term.

Surely this drastically makes the team better now, but it also sets the Dodgers up to have an old, injury prone, and expensive roster going forward. I sure hope the Dodgers win now, because if they don’t, it could get ugly in a hurry.

So Rubby De La Rosa is back with the Dodgers a little over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he certainly deserves every bit of the promotion. In the minors, he allowed 0 runs in 12 innings while striking out 12 and walking 3. More importantly, he was sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper register when needed.

The part I find puzzling though is that the team optioned Javy Guerra to make room for him. I realize that it was either him or Shawn Tolleson, because they were the two that had options and rosters expand in 10 days, but I still find the logic confusing.

With the rest of the bullpen (sans Kenley Jansen) struggling of late, Guerra has put up 11.1 innings of scoreless relief with 13 strikeouts in his last nine appearances. The last time he allowed a run was July 26th. Similarly, Tolleson hasn’t allowed a run since July 22nd.

The predictable defense for demoting either of them is “well they have options”. Which is fine, but if we’re going with the philosophy that the Shane Victorino/Joe Blanton/Brandon League trades were worth it even if they only total a half win improvement because “it’s a dead heat”, then how logical is it to demote your hottest relievers in a bullpen that’s currently struggling to stay afloat?

Some of you know that I’ve followed and have been a fan of Rubby since he showed velocity in the complex leagues as a prospect, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to be lights out either. Point being, if you’re going to justify trading away assets for the most marginal of gains in the context of 2012, then that same attitude should apply to these roster moves as well, especially when there’s considerable dead weight on the roster that nobody would miss.

It was reported yesterday that the Player To Be Named Later in the Joe Blanton deal was Ryan O’Sullivan.

Ryan O’Sullivan, sent to #Phillies to complete Blanton deal, ranked #23 on BA list of #Dodgers prospects.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) August 16, 2012

The 21-year-old right-handed reliever has pitched at both A-ball levels in 2012 after spending 2011 at Rookie-ball. He had a successful stint with the Loons, posting a 2.92 ERA/3.51 FIP/4.52 SIERA, thus earning a promotion to the Quakes. O’Sullivan has struggled in the new environment a bit, putting up a 3.57 ERA/4.84 FIP/4.59 SIERA. A groundball pitcher, the primary problem with his projection are his strikeout totals, which clocked in at 5.45 K/9 at Great Lakes and 6.11 K/9 at Rancho Cucamonga.

O’Sullivan wasn’t a relief arm I was concerned about losing, and quite frankly, I’m just relieved that it wasn’t Chris Withrow or something more significant.

The Dodgers announced moments ago that Jerry Sands would be getting the call from AAA and that Tony Gwynn Jr. has been designated for assignment.

OFFICIAL: @dodgers today designatedTony Gwynn Jr. for assignment and recalled outfielder/first baseman Jerry Sands from AAA Albuquerque.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 6, 2012

Sands has done his part to deserve the shot, hitting .286/.368/.521/.889 at AAA, including a BABIP around league average. He’s hitting lefties and righties about equally well, so putting him down as a platoon guy seems a bit asinine, and unlike last year, when he posted a 1.153 OPS at Albuquerque and a .659 OPS away, this year he’s at .964 and .826, respectively.

It’s also worth noting that even if you don’t believe Sands will be a regular in the future, he has put up a .248/.329/.381/.710 line in his MLB career, which puts him 60 points higher than James Loney and Juan Rivera in 2012.

That fact happens to be exactly what I don’t understand about getting rid of Gwynn though.

Mike Petriello doesn’t mind ditching Gwynn because he doesn’t think Gwynn has any utility left for the team. While that’s true, I’m not quite sure what utility the others have either.

Designate plus-plus defender and fourth outfielder, keep two mediocre 1B who are only useful in a platoon and all around useless 3B.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) August 6, 2012

I guess my argument is less that the team needs Gwynn and more that it needs Rivera, Loney, Juan Uribe, and Adam Kennedy less.

Gwynn’s .232/.276/.293/.570 line is terrible, without a doubt, but he’s still a plus-plus defender that’s better than anybody in the Dodgers outfield by a long shot. The type of player he is has value as a pinch runner, as a defensive replacement, and as an emergency starter — even if they can’t hit.

What utility do Loney, Rivera, Uribe, and Kennedy have? To me, they aren’t even useful off the bench as a pinch hitter (maybe Rivera).

Tony Gwynn Jr.: career .305/.372/.405 hitter in 147 PA as pinch-hitter. Between that and defense, should have been kept instead of Uribe

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) August 6, 2012

Dodgers had (at least) four guys who are let’s say offensively challenged (Uribe, Loney, Rivera, Gwynn). They cut the best defender

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) August 6, 2012

Regardless, it’s hard to get worked up about it, as we’re likely talking about 50-75 PA for Gwynn and whatever amount of defensive replacement appearances he would have got, but I just disagree that moving Gwynn instead of one of the other four was in the best interests of the Dodgers roster.

The Dodgers shored up their rotation today by acquiring Joe Blanton from the Phillies for a player to be named later.

OFFICIAL: @dodgers today acquired starting pitcher Joe Blanton from @phillies for a player to be named later.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 3, 2012

Blanton is owed about $2.9 million for the rest of 2012 and the Dodgers will be picking up the tab for that. Just like with the Shane Victorino trade, the PTBNL isn’t a cause for concern, as they are rarely meaningful prospects in the end.

But how about Blanton?

He should be a clear upgrade over Stephen Fife (4.65 FIP/5.20 xFIP/5.77 SIERA) and provides insurance in case Ted Lilly never quite makes it back from shoulder problems, which by his own account seems likely.

Up until 2010, Blanton had a 5.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, but over the last 174.2 innings from 2011 on, he’s posted a 7.7 K/9 and a 1.4 BB/9. As a result, while his ERA is 4.59 this year, his FIP sits at a solid 3.98, while his xFIP and SIERA are both 3.39. The move from Citizens Bank Park to Dodger Stadium may not only mean he’s a significant improvement as a #5, but may make him the third best option on a staff with a lot of solid but not great pitchers.

Surprised by the peripherals? So is … uh … everybody, but the point is that he’s a solid upgrade that will help the Dodgers and might actually end up making more of a marginal wins difference than Victorino.

As I wrote yesterday, the Dodgers acquired outfielder Shane Victorino from the Phillies in return for reliever Josh Lindblom, AA starter Ethan Martin, and either a player to be named later or cash.

Shane Victorino is returning to the organization that drafted him in 1999. The Dodgers acquired Victorino from the Phillies today for starting pitching prospect Ethan Martin and reliever Josh Lindblom, according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown (Twitter link). The deal has been officially announced by both teams, and the Phillies also received a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Josh Lindblom

From 2011 to 2012, in what amounts to about a full season’s worth of work (75 G/77.1 IP), Lindblom has posted a 2.91 ERA/4.02 FIP/4.19 xFIP/3.53 SIERA. He’s been worth around 0.7 WAR in that time period and figures to be around 0.5 to 1.0 WAR annually, depending on whether you believe his defense independent profile or batted ball profile.

After this season, he has five years of team control left, so taking the middle ground of things, he figures to be worth around 4 WAR during that time.

Ethan Martin

I ranked Martin as the 21st best prospect in the system coming into 2012, based primarily on his upside. In 2011, he seemed destined for a bullpen role, as he could never get it together as a starter, but the lack of ceiling in the Dodgers system led me to rank him anyway.

The Dodgers decided to give him another shot in 2012 as a starter and it has paid dividends. In 118 innings at AA, he has a 3.58 ERA and a 3.48 FIP due to continuing to miss bats (22.9 K%) but dropping his walk rate four percent (12.5%).

He’s not that old for the level at 23 and would have ranked somewhere in the top 10 in the system going into 2013. I probably would have put his upside as a #3 starter or late inning reliever with a high risk grade, an improvement from #3/#4 starter and late inning reliever with a very high risk grade.

Player To Be Named Later Or Cash

PTBNL rarely amount to much so I wouldn’t be concerned about it. Cash obviously doesn’t affect the Dodgers much either. Both figure to be moot unless there’s a shocking twist.

Shane Victorino

2012 marks Victorino’s worst offensive season of his career, posting a .261/.324/.401/.724 line. He’s a good baserunner and an average defender in center (Last Four Years: 0 DRS, -7 FRAA), but a lot of his offensive value comes from the fact that he’s a center fielder, which may not be the case with the Dodgers. Still, there’s no doubt that he marks an upgrade over the previous occupants, who have posted a pathetic line of .238/.294/.329/.623.

Victorino projects at .271/.338/.439/.777 the rest of the way, while the three headed monster of Bobby Abreu (.253/.343/.373/.716), Juan Rivera (.261/.312/.394/.706), and Tony Gwynn Jr. (.252/.306/.341/.647) all clock in well below that.

Comparing Victorino with the three-headed monster that was sharing time in left shows a ~4.5 run upgrade offensively, ~0.5 run upgrade on the bases, and a ~3 run upgrade defensively. That’s assuming the regressed offensive performance and that Victorino adjusts from average/fringe center fielder to above average/good left fielder defensively. So he’s about a 0.8 marginal win upgrade or so.

For the record, PECOTA has him at only a half win upgrade.

—–

While I liked both Lindblom and Martin, they weren’t elite assets, so I’m not going to throw a fit like I was on Twitter when I thought they dealt Allen Webster. However, they were assets that obviously had value, and as a rule of thumb, I don’t like trading valuable assets for rentals except under certain circumstances (history generally shows why), such as an elite team looking to shore up roles.

My cause for concern with trades like these has less to do with Victorino specifically though, as he does indeed represent a significant upgrade in left. Over a full season, he would be about a 2.0 to 2.5 win upgrade over what the Dodgers were trotting out there. However, all they get is two months, and while I assumed he will regress to norms, he may not, and even if he does, his marginal value is minimal because of the time frame involved.

Overall, I understand why people are thrilled with this move, and I hope for the best along with everybody else, but I don’t think there’s much to get excited about either way.

In a surprising move late yesterday, the Dodgers traded prospects Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom to the Mariners for Brandon League.

League, 29, is owed approximately $1.8MM for the rest of the season before becoming a free agent this winter. He’s pitched to a 3.63 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 44 2/3 innings this year, plus his usual sky-high ground ball rate is down to just 46.9%. The Dodgers have lost Matt Guerrier and Todd Coffey to injury this season, so League will add some late-inning depth.

Landry, 22, is hitting .328/.358/.559 with eight homers and 15 triples in 376 plate appearances for Los Angeles’ High Class-A affiliate this season while spending most of his time in center field. Bawcom, a 23-year-old right-hander, owns a 2.03 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 48 2/3 relief innings split between Single-A and Double-A this year. Neither player ranked among the team’s top 30 prospects in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook before the season.

Leon Landry wasn’t in my Prospect Rankings for 2012, but he was headed for a top 20 spot in 2013 prior to this deal happening. The leap comes as a result of his .328/.358/.559/.917 line at high-A and his defensive ability. His upside is probably as a fringy regular due to his poor plate discipline and lack of offensive tools, and I think he fits more as a reserve outfielder type in the majors.

Logan Bawcom wasn’t in my Prospect Rankings for 2012 either, but he too was headed there in 2013. He posted a 0.64 ERA with a 1.06 FIP in 14 innings at high-A, then followed that by posting a 2.60 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 34.2 innings at AA. He has command issues from time to time but has strikeout stuff that should play at advanced levels. Bawcom has a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s and a good sharp slider. He has the upside of a 7th inning guy and a floor that likely still has him as a bullpen contributor, both of which made him one of the arms I was talking about when I referred to relief arms as a system strength.

Brandon League comes to the Dodgers with a 3.63 ERA/3.43 FIP/4.40 xFIP/4.43 SIERA in 2012. After a career year in 2011, he has basically regressed to his career norms (3.69/3.88/3.64/3.34). He’s not without red flags though, as his 14.0 K% is his lowest since 2007 and his BB% is his highest since 2008. Essentially, he’s an above average bullpen guy who was once used as a closer.

—–

On its face, one has to wonder what the point of this trade was. After all, how much of an upgrade is he over Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Josh Lindblom, and company? Hell, Jamey Wright is having an equally quality year at the moment and it already pains me when he enters the game.

What I have to assume is that he was acquired because the Dodgers are on the verge of trading a reliever like Lindblom or Guerra in a deal for a pitcher/first baseman/outfielder. If not, while nothing will quite top the Octavio Dotel deal, this will likely go down as another complete waste of assets. Hell, even if a trade involving a reliever does occur, it’s still a mediocre deal to me. Quality starters rarely make much of a marginal value impact after the deadline, much less average relievers.

For me to even get to that point of acknowledging it as mediocre though, a reliever would have to be traded out of the bullpen for help elsewhere. Here’s hoping it’s for something worthwhile.

Guess you can’t stop Ned Colletti, you can only hope to contain him.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reported that the Dodgers have agreed to trade Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

Surprised? So is basically everybody else.

The Miami Marlins’ shocking midseason rebuild continued with a blockbuster trade after 2 a.m. ET Wednesday: They sent mercurial star Hanley Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate to the Dodgers for young pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough, according to major-league sources.

The trade will have lasting ramifications for the entire National League. The Dodgers, 2 1/2 games behind the archrival Giants in the West, made clear their intent to reach the postseason in their first year under new ownership. The trade amounted to a show of financial might for the Dodgers; Ramirez, 28, is earning $15 million this season, and no cash was included in the deal.

I previously gave my general thoughts on the trade here, and upon further review of the numbers and the circumstances, I still feel similar, but with a tad bit more apprehension.

Hanley Ramirez

As a 22-year-old in 2006, Hanley won the National League Rookie Of The Year Award with an .833 OPS. In the three seasons following that, he posted a line of .325/.398/.549/.947 as a shortstop, deservingly attaining superstar billing. Starting in 2010 though, he saw his production decline and controversy over his hustle erupt. While he posted a still elite .853 OPS at the SS position, he was no longer one of the best hitters in the league.

Suffering from a shoulder injury and general ineffectiveness in 2011, he missed half the year and performed woefully below his standards when he was healthy. That trend continues into 2012, as he has now posted a .245/.328/.405/.732 line in his last 184 games. Making matters worse, he recently has been suffering from an infected hand … basically because he forgot to take medication for it.

With a bat that puts him around league average as a hitter, he would still be quite valuable at both SS and 3B if he could field his position. Unfortunately, using any metric you want, Hanley is not an average defender. For his career at shortstop, he averages -12.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -9.1 runs via UZR, and -11.8 runs via FRAA. In other words, he’s a bad defender there. In 2012, he moved to 3B but hasn’t shown to be any better there. He’s on pace for -17.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -11.2 runs via UZR, and -22.7 runs via FRAA at the hot corner. To be kind about it, he’s a mediocre defender no matter where he has played.

As I said though, he’ll be an improvement for the Dodgers at either position almost no matter what:

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

Then there’s the issue of his contract. The Dodgers are paying him ~$40 million for two years and two months of his service, which puts ~7.5 WAR as the target where the Dodgers can get fair value just for what they have to pay him. At his peak, this would be a complete no-brainer, as he could put up a 7.5 WAR season in a single year; he was that great of a hitter. Now though? He’s amassed a little over ~2 WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined. Performing at levels similar to this, he’s a 2-3 WAR player, which would make the trade a poor deal for the Dodgers.

—–

Hanley is still an elite talent though, and the Dodgers took a risk in a market where elite talents are almost impossible to acquire without dropping a 10-year contract on them.

While nagging injuries is just one of the many explanations I’ve heard for Hanley’s decline, luck can also have an effect. Ramirez never posted a BABIP below .327 prior to 2011, but then posted a .275 BABIP in 2011 and has a .271 BABIP this year. It doesn’t explain away all of his poor performance, but even regression back to .310 or so would make him a well above average player again, so there’s reason to think that Ned Colletti bought low here (yes, you read that correctly).

Furthermore, in the context of the Dodgers current roster and farm system at SS and 3B, the team clearly can’t fill those positions internally, so Hanley being average there is worth more to the Dodgers than it might be to others. This is especially true due to the almost non-existent free agent market at those positions in the coming years.

—–

The Dodgers made this trade with the expectation that Hanley would do a lot more than he currently is, and he’ll have to be better just to make the trade fair for both sides. The Dodgers are banking that he can regain his old form with a change of scenery, a change of coaching staff, and perhaps a refreshed attitude. It’s far from impossible for him, as finding just one of those things can do wonders for a player.

Just ask Matt Kemp.

Randy Choate

Choate is a lefty reliever making $1.5 million this year and he will be a free agent at the end of 2012. He’s pitching well thus far, posting a 2.49 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, and 2.68 SIERA. More importantly though, he’s dominating lefties to the tune of a .150/.200/.183/.383 line. It’s no fluke either, as lefties have hit .203/.277/.285/.562 off Choate over his career.

Is he an impact player? No, but he fills a need that the Dodgers have been seeking out since the start of Spring Training. Scott Elbert has been effective as the bullpen’s only lefty, but lefties have a .325 wOBA off him compared to a .251 wOBA for righties. That creates a problem for the Dodgers when they need a matchup lefty late in the game, and Choate fills that role for the team perfectly.

Nate Eovaldi

Over his 91 innings in the MLB, he has posted a 3.96 ERA and 4.18 FIP. As a player that can contribute to the Marlins immediately, he can already be seen as a ~2 WAR type of pitcher. Given that he has about five years of team control left after 2012, there’s no doubt he’s a valuable commodity.

As far as upside goes, I don’t think he’s done anything to acquit himself of the #3 label I gave him back in March, as he’s still fastball dominant with lagging off-speed pitches. However, he’s a productive, cheap player that’s one adjustment away from approaching his ceiling.

Despite his value, the Dodgers trading an arm like him makes sense:

From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece.

The surplus of arms in the system made him expendable if the Dodgers could get a quality return … and they did.

Scott McGough

I wrote about him back in February and nothing has changed since then, in my opinion.

I haven’t seen him get much attention but I liked him at the University Of Oregon and I think he has a chance at a bullpen role down the road. Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, there’s plenty of velocity to make it to the show. However, his low-80s slurve will need to improve, not so much the command like most young pitchers, but the break itself needs to be sharper or it’ll get hammered as he moves levels.

Or if you don’t believe me, then Kevin Goldstein posted a similar report a few hours back.

A fifth-round pick in 2011, McGough is an intriguing relief prospect who still has plenty to work on. At six feet tall and with a slight build, he’s on the small side, but he has an incredibly fast arm capable of firing 93-95-mph fastballs that touch 97, although there is some effort in his delivery. His command and control is no better than average, and his ultimate role as either a late-inning reliever or just another bullpen piece will come down to the development of his slider. He’ll flash a plus one with heavy break, but it’s a rarity, as he has a tendency to overthrow the pitch and has trouble keeping it in the strike zone.

I think McGough can contribute for the Marlins in the bullpen with some development, but I don’t see him as an elite arm that would fit as a closer or such. Therefore, I don’t mind his inclusion in the deal.

=====

At the current level of production for all the players involved, the Dodgers are paying around $40 million for about 6 WAR and are trading 8-10 WAR (Eovaldi) or more plus potentially six years of a solid reliever (McGough) to the Marlins. That reality is why the trade is a significant risk on the part of the Dodgers.

Even taking that into consideration though, the temptation of Hanley’s upside chart is what makes this deal. It represents what could happen if Hanley does round back into form (~15 WAR), and it’s significant because the Dodgers will then have managed to pick up a rare elite talent in a market that’s a bit bare at the moment.

So with money to burn and the Dodgers having no internal answers, the gamble seems to be worth taking.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Dodgers have traded Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

BLOCKBUSTER: Hanley Ramirez & Randy Choate to #Dodgers, Nathan Eovaldi & Scott McGough to #Marlins, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

I’ll have complete analysis (with all the nerdy stuff) in the morning, but for now, my gut reaction is that it makes sense for both teams.

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

While I am admittedly excited by the gigantic upside of this deal if Hanley figures it out again, it’s not without risk. After all, there’s a reason the Marlins let him walk with 2 1/2 years of team control remaining.

First of all, Hanley is signed through 2014 and is still owed $31 million over the next two years, including whatever he’s still owed in 2012. Additionally, his batting line has been woeful (by his standards) since 2010, clocking in at .245/.328/.405/.732. Plus, as I mentioned, he’s not a good defender, regardless of where he plays, and there are very real concerns about his motivation and happiness. Normally I would dismiss this as media inflated crap due to him under-performing, but then I consider that his hand got infected because he forgot to take his antibiotics, and you start to wonder.

Choate, the other half of this deal on the Marlins side, also makes sense for the Dodgers. Lefties are batting .150/.200/.183/.383 (yes, really) off him in 2012, and while there’s nothing wrong with Scott Elbert, he’s actually effective against righties much more than lefties in 2012.

—–

For the Marlins, Eovaldi should be a solid rotation contributor, though I think his upside still lies as a #3 because his off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball. From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece. It wouldn’t shock me if the Dodgers lose this trade in terms of surplus value in the end, but I think the deal makes sense, regardless.

Who is McGough though, right? I wrote about him back in February and nothing much has changed yet. I still think he can be a MLB contributor in the bullpen, but he’s not going to be an elite guy and the Dodgers have a ton of arms, so his inclusion isn’t all that important to me.

—–

Overall, I feel the deal makes sense for both sides. The two teams want to go in different directions, and with the free agent market dwindling for the Dodgers, they could afford to absorb salary in exchange for upgrades/upside beyond 2012, and they did exactly that. Meanwhile, the Marlins cleared a contract and a headache off their slate and got solid cost-controlled pieces in return, at least one of which can contribute to the team immediately.

Well, this came out of nowhere, huh?

I saw the articles on Yasiel Puig being declared a free agent and I figured that the Dodgers might be interested due to their desired goal of returning to the international market, but none of the rumors had the Dodgers as players.

So much for that, as according to Jesse Sanchez, the Dodgers have apparently signed the 21-year-old Cuban to a seven-year deal worth $42 million.

According to an industry source, the Dodgers have agreed to a seven-year deal worth $42 million with 21-year-old international prospect Yasiel Puig, a 6-foot-3, 210-pound outfielder from Cuba.

The Dodgers haven’t commented on or confirmed the signing.

Puig (pronounced Pweeg) was declared a free agent Wednesday, not long after establishing temporary residency in Mexico, and was eventually cleared by the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

In order to avoid being subject to new CBA guidelines that will limit spending on international prospects to $2.9 million per team without penalty, Puig must sign the record-setting deal, have the contract approved by Major League Baseball and pass a physical before Monday.

A top prospect in the island’s premier league, the Cuban National Series (Serie Nacional), Puig hit .276 with five home runs during his first campaign with Cienfuegos in 2008-09 and had a breakout year the next season, hitting .330 with 17 home runs and 78 RBIs. He did not play for Cienfuegos during the 2011-12 seasons because he was being disciplined for attempting to defect.

Puig, a member of the country’s national team, is the latest high-profile Cuban player to sign with a Major League club. Outfielders Yoenis Cespedes signed a four-year $36 million deal with the A’s in mid-February, and Jorge Soler signed a nine-year, $30 million deal with the Cubs earlier this month. Left-handed pitcher Omar Luis Rodriguez signed a Minor League deal worth $4 million with the Yankees last week, and fellow lefty Gerardo Concepcion signed a five-year, $6 million deal with the Cubs in early February.

J.P. Breen at FanGraphs wrote a profile on him when he was declared a free agent.

Now, statistics from the Cuban Serie Nacional should obviously be taken with a grain of salt. The level of competition is perhaps not even comparable to what Puig would potentially see in Triple-A, but legitimate similarities exist between the numbers Yoenis Cespedes compiled in 2010-2011 and what Puig racked up in the same year.

The obvious difference is the significantly higher home run total from Cespedes. It’s that level of power that has allowed Cespedes to transition directly to the major leagues and post a .222 ISO as a 26-year-old without any experience in the United States.

The remainder of the numbers — the on-base percentage, strikeout-to-walk ratio, etc. — are comparable. Even the doubles are comparable. Puig reportedly has above-average speed and was once considered the “fastest player in Cuban baseball” before defecting, so it’s not overly surprising that Puig would collect more triples than Cespedes.

He followed that up with an article today after the signing.

Puig’s Cuban numbers back up the possession of a solid hit tool (just 39 strikeouts in 327 at-bats) as well as discipline (49 walks) and power (.251 ISO), at least as far as international statistics can. Clay Davenport roughly compared Cuban baseball to Class Low-A, and Puig’s numbers at age 19 (he didn’t play in 2010-2011 due to discipline over his attempts to defect) would be impressive there.

Speed is speed, and Puig hit six triples with his Cuban team but also was thrown out in four of his nine stolen base attempts. Evaluation of Puig’s defense will be toughest of all. Workouts can show raw ability, but they may not show the kind of reactions and decision-making necessary to defend at the MLB level.

It may seem rash to commit $42 million to a player with no first-hand knowledge of how he plays in games. But, given Heyman’s note that the Dodgers weren’t the high bidder (at least in terms of gross dollar amount; it’s possible a team offered more years and a lower average salary), it appears less that the Dodgers were smitten by one great workout and more that there is something legitimately enticing about the player. At least one scout has noted his power as “not quite Giancarlo Stanton or Bryce Harper, but close.”

Ben Badler of Baseball America noted that seeing him in person has been difficult and reports have not been overly positive.

Reports from scouts on 21-year-old Cuban corner outfielder Yasiel Puig have been underwhelming. The Rangers have been the only team linked to Puig, though their senior-level decision makers were not in attendance at his recent workout in Mexico, where teams have reported that his conditioning appears to be an issue. Teams have no performance data or game video to work off from Puig in more than a year because he was suspended for the 2011-12 season in Serie Nacional. The last time any scouts could have legally evaluated Puig was in June 2011 in Rotterdam, where scouts seemed lukewarm at best on him. He’s shown plus raw power and hit well in Cuba for a year before his suspension, but there are question marks about both his bat and his rawness in the outfield. How Puig could have acquired permanent Mexican residency documents after having been in the country for what’s believed to be less than a month is also a widespread question, though Major League Baseball has yet to declare him a free agent.

Upon being declared a free agent, he repeated the point.

Reports on Puig, 21, have been modest, and other than a few light workouts this weekend, teams are working off limited information. He was suspended this past season in Cuba—some sources believe it was due to his attempts to leave the country, though some teams have conflicting information—so scouts haven’t been able to see Puig in game condition since June 2011 for the Cuban national B team at the World Port Tournament in Rotterdam. The Rangers are the only team that Baseball America’s sources have linked to Puig.

“How can we evaluate someone like that?” asked one Latin American director.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus chimed in with basically the same report. We don’t know much.

His workout in Mexico was really just an extended batting practice, as he never ran and barely did anything in the outfield. His previous attempts to defect left him on the sidelines in last season’s Serie National in Cuba, so overall, he just hasn’t been seen that much. Puig has plus-plus raw power, but reviews on every other tool vary wildly for the 21-year-old. Some think he has speed, some think he’s merely an average runner, and there are definite concerns about the stiffness of his swing and a history of swing-and-miss. No matter what exactly he is, talk of this as a desperation move to help a woeful Dodgers offense seems more than a bit foolhardy, and the Dodgers have to get him into the country first, and they’ll be lucky to get six weeks of minor league time out of someone who has barely played the game in the past 12 months.

Speaking of upside, Danny Knobler of CBSSports relays this:

One scout on Puig: “You see him on the right day, he could be Vladimir Guerrero.”

— DKnobler (@DKnobler) June 28, 2012

Could probably say the same for a lot of inconsistent/toolsy players.

Keith Law of ESPN furthers the skepticism.

Based on what I’ve heard about Puig, this is a bizarre overreaction to the upcoming international spending cap, and a huge bet that, despite a stiff swing and less athletic body than Soler, Puig’s bat is good enough to justify an investment of this size. I’ve also heard that Puig was badly out of shape in his recent workouts in Mexico, and that his throwing arm is not as strong since it was last seen in games. And unlike Soler or Cespedes, Puig barely has played in games outside of Cuba, so major league scouts have not had much of an opportunity to evaluate him properly.

Yeah.

—–

So basically, we shouldn’t get too excited about the fact that he signed such a massive deal, as it’s less indicative of his actual talent, and more indicative of the rules under the new CBA.

I don’t see any way this isn’t an overpay in the end, but if the Dodgers have this type of money to take a shot in the dark with, perhaps that’s an overall net positive. I just hope they haven’t spent this simply to make a statement and have it take out of the 2013 budget.

Furthermore, Dodgers scouts have a good track record with international signings … which is why I’m worried about this one, because apparently Dodgers scouts haven’t seen him play or do anything.

=====

Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier agreed to an extension with the team yesterday, and he’ll now be locked in with the franchise for the next five years for a sum of $85 million. Additionally, there’s a vesting option for a sixth year for an additional $15 million.

Ethier close to deal with #Dodgers that would be guaranteed for $85M over 5 yrs. Vesting option for 6th yr that would raise value to $100M.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) June 12, 2012

Ethier is a popular Dodgers player and fans are excited for good reason. Barring last year’s struggles, he’s been one of the few offensive constants for the team, and although he was born in the Athletics system, it feels like he was raised as one of the Dodgers own core players like Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.

Sentiment, however, doesn’t win games, so it’s worth looking at the contract to see whether or not the deal was the correct move.

For his career, his slash line is .291/.363/.482/.845, and barring 2011, it’s been quite stable. If you discard 2011 as a fluke due to injury (as I’m prone to agree with), then you end up with player having an OPS around .850-.860, which is good for a .360-.370 wOBA. Ethier’s a better baserunner than you might expect, being of neutral value, if not slightly better.

Defensively, he has shown improvement and gets credit for that, but he’s still a below average defender when taking into consideration a larger sample size. If you like, he can be average, but that should be the extent of it. Scouting wise, I think it checks out. He has above average arm strength with plus accuracy, but his mediocre range hurts his value. He tries to compensate for that by taking quality routes, and he has average hands. I think where he loses a lot of value is in cutting balls off and on balls hit over his head. As long as the play is in front of him though, he’s a solid defender. For the sake of this analysis, I took the conservative approach and looked at it like he has always been an fringe/average defender rather than assuming he managed to magically go from a terrible defender to a good one in the midst of his injury prone 2011.

For playing time, I awarded him about 580-590 plate appearances, which seems fair to me, considering he has topped 600 plate appearances just once in his career, and I’ve given him that playing time in right field.

All of that is the explanation for the following calculation:

24.5 oWAR + 0.4 bWAR + -3.3 dWAR + 19.5 REP + -5.0 POS = 36.1 = 3.6 WAR

So 3.6 WAR is his estimated true talent level for 2013, which is the starting point of the contract.

—–

As you can see on the surplus value chart for Ethier that I posted above, the regression of his WAR starts immediately in 2014. That’s because he’ll be 31 years old at the start of the extension, and batter aging curves aren’t all that friendly.

I know everybody is excited right now, and I’m not trying to be negative, but when players are signed into their mid-to-late 30s, bad things do tend to happen more frequently. In fact, the standard WAR regression is 0.5 per year, but I thought that was a bit harsh. So if anything, I’m being kind to Ethier in the realm of his aging pattern, because I do think that the linear regression model is a bit much.

Furthermore, as pointed out elsewhere, Ethier’s similar batters at this point in his career are a bit frightening to look at.

Every single player on that list saw their production plummet by their age 34 season, and most were out of the league the year after. I wouldn’t read too much into it, but suffice to say, it’s more than fair to have concerns.

—–

A popular feeling out in the Dodgers fandom is that Ethier was a necessary signing, unless the Dodgers wanted their offense to suffer immensely in the coming years. However, that’s never wholly true, is it? I doubt they would feel the same way if it cost the Dodgers a chance at signing Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke or Mike Napoli or B.J. Upton. Or if it prevented a trade and sign with David Wright or similar type deals. In the same vein, I doubt Ethier would be viewed as a necessity if the deal was five years for $110 million or something similar.

The point is not to say that those things would or could have happened, but that there are always limits to how much any team absolutely needs any player. Every team has a budget, and all the contracts count, so getting value out of every one of them is of the utmost importance to continued and sustained success.

Most fans appear to agree that the contract overpays Ethier at least a bit, and I simply don’t accept the logic that everything is alright with that as long as it feels like it takes care of a need on the immediate horizon. Primarily because that’s the attitude that got the Dodgers linked with Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones and the likes to begin with.

—–

With that said, for all the criticism he takes from people like me, Ned Colletti has done a solid job with extending players under team control to this point, and the proprietary information they have on Ethier would lead me to hope that they re-signed him because they think he could beat the existing odds. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that history is on Ethier’s side.

I don’t feel the need to take a strong stance either way on this extension, because there are solid arguments for both sides, but I think the overwhelming optimism among fans right now might need a bit of blunting. There’s definitely considerable risk that comes along with this contract, and if there’s one thing we all learned from the Frank McCourt era, it’s that sacrificing future returns for immediate needs rarely ever works out like you want.

As mentioned yesterday, Matt Kemp injured his hamstring and according to the Dodgers official Twitter, he will be headed to the disabled list. In a related move, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus confirmed that the Dodgers would be calling up prospect Alex Castellanos from AAA Albuquerque to take his place on the roster.

Because I’m slow and busy, I haven’t actually had the chance to write my Prospect Profile on him yet. However, I will say that I think he’s well worth taking a chance on.

—–

At 25, there isn’t a lot of time left for him to destroy minor league baseball, and while it’s Albuquerque, Castellanos is indeed destroying the ball, putting up a .361/.465/.711/1.176 line, albeit with a .441 BABIP. The average would have obviously normalized with time, but you don’t need to be a scout to see that line and tell he was hitting the cover off the ball.

Personally though, the most promising sign was the change in patience this year. My biggest concern with Castellanos coming into the year was his lack of plate discipline, as the combination of a mediocre walk rate and a high strikeout rate looked like an MLB disaster-in-waiting. So far in 2012, he has changed his walk rate from the 6-7 percent range all the way up to 12.9%. Furthermore, his strikeout rate has come down from 23-24 percent to 20.8%. That potential change in skill profile gives me a lot more hope for his chances at MLB success than before, because I felt his hit tool was good and he had a bit of pop, and what made me skeptical was the belief that his discipline problems in the minors would get exacerbated when facing MLB competition.

—–

With a potential skill change in the works, he now looks far more promising as a potential regular, and if he can simply hold his own defensively at second base (I didn’t like what I saw there last season though), it won’t take that much bat to be valuable either.

While nobody actually expects him to replace Matt Kemp in production, he is now one of the few players on the Dodgers roster with upside and who isn’t due for regression, and that provides hope that perhaps he can help the team ride out the injuries to key players.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Juan Rivera has been placed on the disabled list and Scott Van Slyke will take his place on the Dodgers.

The Dodgers on Wednesday placed outfielder Juan Rivera on the 15-day disabled list with a significant hamstring strain or tear behind the left knee and were recalling outfielder Scott Van Slyke from Triple-A Albuquerque.

Manager Don Mattingly described the injury as “fairly major,” “significant” and “not just a strain.”

He said newly signed Bobby Abreu would get most of Rivera’s playing time in left field, but Mattingly is “not looking at him as an everyday guy” because that would “run the risk of beating him up.”

Rivera, who missed six starts last month with a left hamstring injury, was removed from Tuesday night’s game when he felt “pins and needles” in the same area behind the back of his left knee while sliding into third base.

An MRI on Wednesday revealed the extent of the injury.

“I felt something pop, but it didn’t hurt,” said Rivera. “They said this is better than pulling a hamstring. It might take two or three weeks and they want me to be 100 percent.”

So Rivera’s injury looks to be a lot more serious than initially thought, and based on the way he’s been playing so far in 2012, the injury is probably a blessing in disguise because his replacements would be hard-pressed to play worse.

With that said, Bobby Abreu getting a majority of the time in left field frightens me for defensive reasons, so hopefully Van Slyke hits well right off the bat and gets a shot at regular playing time.

From 2011 on, at AA and AAA, Van Slyke has posted a .351/.428/.626/1.054 line against lefties and an equally impressive .343/.422/.591/1.013 line against righties, so he’s not really a platoon player. He’ll make 26 in two months and seems to have little left to prove in the minors, so this seems to be as good a time as any to give him a shot.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Dodgers have signed Bobby Abreu, formerly of the Angels. In a corresponding move, the team has demoted utility infielder Justin Sellers to the minors and will probably use Jerry Hairston Jr. at shortstop.

The Angels will be paying Abreu’s 2012 salary, and speculation is that the Dodgers will be paying Abreu a prorated league minimum salary.

The Angels released Abreu one week ago and will be on the hook for the remainder of his $9MM salary. Abreu’s new deal could be for as little as the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum.

So at the very least, he probably won’t be expensive.

—–

My initial thought? Wow, wonderful. Any time you get the chance to platoon Juan Rivera and Abreu in what should be an elite offensive position in left field, you’ve absolutely got to do it.

With that said, it doesn’t seem like it will be much of a platoon, at least if Bill Shaikin is correct.

Abreu would not fit with #Dodgers or any other NL team except as a PH. He can’t play defense regularly any more.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 28, 2012

Seems he’ll see limited action in left field and be the primary bat off the bench.

—–

Now the main question on the minds of fans is why wasn’t Adam Kennedy released instead of having Sellers sent down. Well, the sad reality is that Abreu might not be much better than Kennedy.

Kennedy projects to hit .252/.305/.358/.663 the rest of the season, according to ZiPS. Once a plus defender at second base, Kennedy has now been reduced to playing fringe defense at first base, second base, and third base.

Abreu? Well, he’s on a four-year OPS decline (.843/.825/.787/.717), and ZiPS projects him to hit .243/.333/.382/.716 the rest of the way. Better with the bat, but not a gigantic gap between the two. Defensively, Abreu has been worth -76.3 runs according to UZR and -47 runs according to DRS over his career, coming out to around -8.4 runs UZR per 150 games and -5.2 runs DRS per 150 games. In simpler terms, he’s a shitty defensive player.

If I give Abreu ~100 PA for the remainder of 2012, he comes out to being worth ~1.3 runs with the bat, ~3.3 runs replacement level, ~-0.8 runs position adjustment, ~-0.8 runs on the bases, and ~-1.1 runs defensively. A total of ~1.9 runs or ~0.2 WAR.

At this stage in his career, he’s basically a well below average player whose only redeeming quality left is being able to take a walk more often than most.

—–

So basically, Kennedy can’t hit, but has defensive versatility and is competent with the glove. Abreu is a better hitter, but not by as much as you’d think, and he’s terrible with the glove.

Given that Kennedy’s current role is essentially that of a pinch hitter, I would think/hope Abreu is more valuable to the Dodgers. However, if they start to play Abreu in the outfield against every righty, it could get ugly, not so much at the plate, but for the Dodgers pitching staff.

—–

Kennedy is bad and he deserves all the criticism thrown his way, but the reality is that, depending on the role, Abreu might be even worse.

It all leaves me to wonder why the Dodgers can’t ever do better on the bench (Mark Sweeney/Garret Anderson/Mark Loretta/Eugenio Velez), because while Kennedy hasn’t been the answer, I don’t think Abreu is the thump off the bench the team is looking for either.

The official Twitter account of the Los Angeles Dodgers just announced that the team has signed Clayton Kershaw to a two-year contract, thus avoiding arbitration.

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports the deal is for 19 million dollars.

Here’s the breakdown:

Kershaw will receive a $500k signing bonus, $7.5 million salary in 2012, $11 million salary in 2013.

MLB Trade Rumors projected his arbitration salary to come in at $8.4 million, and they are usually on point, so it seems like a good deal for the team. Plus, if Kershaw performs anywhere near as well in 2012, I think he would get a ton more than $11 million.

For comparison, Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants got two years and $23 million his first time through arbitration as a Super Two, which Kershaw is not.