After giving up back-to-back bloop singles to put runners on first and third to start the top of the eighth inning, Kenley Jansen managed to wriggle out of trouble without allowing a run and blowing the lead.

Here’s how:

The series of plate appearances setup the Dodgers for the win, thus getting Zack Greinke the win.

Hyun Jin Ryu was captured playing catch with a boy, only known to me as “Deuce”, in the stands during batting practice.

After Matt Kemp made headlines everywhere for being a great guy, something he’s done before, Ryu once again brings positive headlines to the Dodgers for off-the-field reasons.

In what has been a horrible 2013 thus far for the team, at least there’s been bright spots off-the-field to relieve the constant bombardment of negativity.

In six short days with the team in 2013, Dee Gordon has already showcased everything that once made him a top prospect and everything that made him one of the worst players in the MLB last year.

It’s a tiny sample, yet he’s managed to fit in so much amazement and failure that his performance has been noteworthy, regardless. In a way, he’s proven both his supporters and detractors correct so far.

Me? I’m neutral on his call-up, because while I think there’s certainly more upside to him than Justin Sellers or Luis Cruz or Juan Uribe, there’s also downside.

Generally speaking, Sellers and Cruz might be around 0 WAR players. Maybe they’re 0.5 WAR guys, maybe they’re -0.5 WAR guys, but at the end of the day, they should fall in around there. Fringe utility players, basically.

Gordon, on the other hand, has always had an upside around 3 WAR player, but his downside, as seen last year, is that of around a -3 WAR player, because unlike Cruz and Sellers and Uribe, his defense can be atrocious. Thus, if he hits like they do, and he certainly did last year, it’s two negatives instead of just one.

—–

Hitting

He’s hit .316/.409/.421/.830 thus far, yes, but it comes with a .429 BABIP, which is high even for somebody of his speed. The promising part though is his new patience, but the trade-off appears to be more strikeouts, which happen far too often for a slap-and-run type of hitter he is.

Undoubtedly this has been his strength so far, but whether it continues over a significant sample or not has always been the issue.

Fielding

He’s shown range and the ability to get to balls that not many can (first GIF), but he’s also shown the tendency to make careless errors and show a lack of fundamental skills.

On only one of the three misplays featured here was he marked with an error, but it’s still poor defense … and it’s only half of the misplays I found.

Baserunning

Electric, right? Look at how he takes all those extra bases and does the little things right and … oh he just ran into three outs in a game? Drat.

—–

Flaws and all, fans understandably tend to side with Dee because of the “wow” moments he brings to the table, stuff that guys with less raw talent simply can’t even fathom doing. Dee is made for mind-blowing bursts of speed and flair that lead to extreme excitement, but he often follows that with the lulls of fundamental inadequacy and lack of baseball skills, which is the part people tend to gloss over too easily.

My point? For all that highs and lows so far, his WAR on the year is 0. There’s probably not much more fitting a grade than that.

People fall in love with the explosiveness but tend forget that baseball, for better or worse, is more about the routine and the boring.

For example, Matt Kemp‘s debut was full of flash and flair as well. He bombed seven homers in his first 50 plate appearances, but then got exposed down the stretch due to his lack of refinement. From there, it was the boring things — laying off/hitting hanging breaking balls, working the count, going to right field — that led him to become an MVP-caliber player, not mindlessly hacking and trying to club bombs.

Dee will never get to that level, granted, but at some point we would like to see a hint of progress in the refinement area of his game. Kemp showed that slowly but surely, much like all prospects that pan out do, but the concern is that Dee has been rather stagnant for a while now.

——

Perhaps predictably, articles are being written about how Dee gives this team a “shot in the arm” or a “much needed boost of energy”, but the reality is that’s not the player they need him to be. He’s ALWAYS been the “energy guy”, the “tools guy”, the “flash guy”, even last year, but what the Dodgers need from him more than anything right now is something he’s never been able to accomplish: stability.

The day he gives the team daily consistency over flashy highlights is the day that I’ll buy in, and I think most others will as well. Until then, though, the Dee Gordon experience will likely continue to be a roller-coaster of alternating cheers and facepalms.

Strap in.

Mike Scioscia‘s job with the Angels is in jeopardy due to their slow start, much like people seem to think Don Mattingly‘s job is. Ken Rosenthal throws gas on both fires by suggesting that the Angels deal Scioscia to the Dodgers.

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com believes Angels manager Mike Scioscia needs a fresh start and proposes the Dodgers as the most obvious possibility. Rosenthal notes owner Artie Moreno would recoil at the idea of Scioscia managing the crosstown rivals, but the Angels would be better for it if they could obtain a significant player or two in a John Farrell-style trade.

As a standalone rumor, this wouldn’t bother me that much, but this idea of getting Scioscia to the Dodgers somehow is gaining momentum for whatever reason, and I can’t express enough how much I hate the idea.

Why? I think he’s a downgrade.

——

This is not out of any fanboyism over Mattingly, either.

If you follow me on Twitter, you’d know that I frequently critique Mattingly’s game management style. His frequency of bunting, the odd personnel choices, and the bullpen management are all things that I recognize as problematic from time to time.

That is to say that I’m not exactly calling him the best manager in the MLB, far from it. But as I’ve said before, I watch a lot of baseball around the league and follow a lot of other team’s bloggers, and I see similar issues/complaints from almost every manager, sans a few.

So while Don might not be ideal, I certainly think he’s average.

Furthermore, game management is a small part of what managers exist for. As this article points out, the universal standard for what comprises of a quality manager is basically a jumble of intangibles. Therefore, their true value is keeping players happy, getting out of their way, and letting them play, which, hate him or not, Mattingly and his staff have been able to do with the core of the Dodgers team, unlike his predecessors Joe Torre and Grady Little.

That’s why, despite all my complaints, I still defend Mattingly’s position.

—–

But besides that, why don’t I like Scioscia, right? Former Dodgers catcher, supposedly the future Dodgers manager before he was passed over, and seemingly supported by Dodger fans.

Well, for starters, all of those things Dodger fans bash Mattingly for? Scioscia does them more often … much more often.

Credit to Jay Jaffe for both that chart and for coining #BuntFucked.

So hate when the Dodgers get #BuntFucked by Mattingly? Well boy oh boy are you in for a treat if Scioscia strolls into town.

Scioscia is the biggest proponent of small-ball in the MLB, and it’s not only bunting, as this extends to both leading the league in hit-and-runs attempts and placing in the top five in stolen base attempt rate. So if giving up free outs aren’t your thing, then Scioscia is a downgrade*.

*And we all remember the Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis debate, yes? Yes.

Furthermore, at the start of his career, Scioscia seemed to have this aura surrounding his teams, primarily built through the media, because they seemed to outperform their expected wins year after year. Yet without Joe Maddon on his bench, his teams have increasingly become less and less adept at outperforming their expectancies, which I doubt is a coincidence given what we now know about Maddon’s defensive shifts and managerial aptitude.

—–

So by all indications, trading for Scioscia over Mattingly would:

1) Put question marks in a clubhouse without them.

2) Exacerbate all of the game management flaws people already dislike in Mattingly.

3) Expose fans to a manager with a longer history of questionable personnel decisions.

But most importantly, the team would have to apparently give up “one or two” valuable assets for the joy of all the above.

Nightmares, this scenario gives me them.

Zack Greinke appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken collarbone.

The original diagnosis after the surgery was for Greinke to return to pitching for the Dodgers in eight weeks after the Apr. 13 procedure, which would put him in line for a return around June 8. But given that Greinke is already throwing bullpen sessions, his return could come sooner than that.

Ken Gurnick has the details:

Greinke threw all of his pitches and said he had no discomfort. Original recovery estimate was eight weeks, but he’s ahead of that.

While I’m thrilled with this news, and it is a positive to counter all the bad, I would encourage them to take as much time as he needs to get back.

Besides being worried about him rushing it to help a struggling team, I would hope he’s given the time to adequately build his arm strength. Also, that he feels truly normal so that he’s not altering his mechanics. This is due to both injury and performance concerns.

—–

Adrian Gonzalez has been down and out for the past few days with a neck injury, and while there hasn’t been any indication that it’s serious enough to require a DL stint, it certainly doesn’t sound good.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez tried to play on Saturday night after sitting out Friday with a pain in his neck, but for the second consecutive night he was scratched from the starting lineup on Saturday against the Giants. Jerry Hairston will play first base in place of Gonzalez, and bat second.

Things figured to be bad for Gonzalez, who after Friday’s game told reporters, “I can’t turn my neck right now,” per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

Even on Saturday, though he was originally penciled into the lineup, Gonzalez spent the bulk of pregame getting treatment on his neck, and per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com was walking around the clubhouse wearing a soft neck brace. I’m no doctor, but that is almost never a good sign for anyone, let alone a professional athlete.

The weird part? On the play he was hurt, there’s barely any direct contact with his head/neck and the umpire at all.

Via Mike Petriello

I’m not sure his head/neck area even make direct contact. Not questioning his injury in any way, just mentioning it to point out how unlucky this team has been so far in 2013.

This injury sort of sums it up.

—–

Hanley Ramirez was placed on the 15-day DL with his hamstring injury, which seems as serious as it looked.

Ramirez led off the sixth inning with a walk against Barry Zito, then tried to advance to third base on a single to right field by A.J. Ellis. But between second and third base, Ramirez pulled up and slowed down, and appeared to favor his left leg.

Ramirez was helped off the field by team trainers, and replaced in the bottom of the inning by Justin Sellers at shortstop.

Early reports have the injury being compared to Matt Kemp‘s injury from 2012, and we know how that derailed his year.

—–

Chris Capuano is on pace to join the rotation this coming week.

Chris Capuano pitched into the sixth inning Wednesday night in his minor league rehab start with Triple-A Albuquerque, and remains in line to join the Dodgers when they open a series next week at Dodger Stadium against the Diamondbacks.

Capuano allowed two runs on seven hits in his 5⅓ innings, and struck out four with just one walk against Memphis. He had a bit of a scare in the third inning when he knocked down a comebacker with his bare hand, per Isotopes beat writer Chris Jackson, but Capuano was no worse for wear and remained in the game.

Capuano was removed after 76 pitches, presumably after hitting a prescribed pitch count limit. For what it’s worth, Isotopes play-by-play announcer Josh Suchon described Capuano’s outing as “solid” and said the left-hander “looks ready.”

Capuano and Greinke figure to come back soon, one after the other, so the rotation hopefully won’t be in shambles like it is now.

—–

Mark Ellis continues to make improvements, but how much longer can they wait?

Ellis said Wednesday that he was feeling better and was able to field, throw, hit and move laterally with no issue. But he was still unable to run at full speed.

The Dodgers need to open a roster spot for Clayton Kershaw to return from the bereavement list and make his scheduled start Friday at San Francisco.

Does Ellis believe he will be healthy enough to play Friday?

“We’ll see; I won’t know until Friday,” Ellis said before Wednesday’s game against the Rockies. “If it progresses every day like it has, I’d be optimistic. But it’s early in the season still, so we’ll see.”

If Ellis is unavailable again Friday, the Dodgers would most likely place the veteran on the disabled list.

Great that he’s not in the “gonna miss a month” territory with this, but they need to make a decision. The bench is terrible as it is, and they can’t just keep them a man down.

Given his age and injury history, I honestly don’t see why they don’t just play it safe.

—–

Carl Crawford (hamstring) isn’t a DL situation yet, Don Mattingly says.

— J.P. Hoornstra (@jphoornstra) May 1, 2013

Fortunately it seems like he’s about ready, as he pinch-hit yesterday.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. seems to think he’s okay after pulling up a bit lame while scoring last night.

Jerry Hairston, starting at first base Saturday night in place of the injured Adrian Gonzalez, was removed in the fifth inning in a double-switch, although he confirmed he “felt a little bit of a tweak in the groin” to explain why he was limping while scoring on Matt Kemp’s two-run single.

“I felt fine and could have stayed in the game. It was very minor,” Hairston said. “It was just a natural double-switch but I could have played. It’s really a non-issue. I hit the bag funny rounding third and I just wanted to make sure I didn’t overextend.”

Mattingly said he was told that Hairston was OK, “but I’m not sure what that means. We’ll see tomorrow.”

Again, this doesn’t seem major, but if this many guys are unavailable or borderline unavailable, it eats into an already weak and decimated bench.

—–

As you guys know, Ted Lilly was put on the DL with a rib cage strain.

—–

Down in the minors, it’s been a busy week:

Placed on 7-day DL: RHP Gustavo Gomez, RHP JonMichael Redding, LHP Onelki Garcia, C Jan Vazquez, 1B Chris Jacobs, 2B Rafael Ynoa

Reinstated from DL: RHP Matt Palmer, SS Ozzie Martinez, OF Yasiel Puig

Would like to know what Onelki Garcia‘s ailment is, since he’s the top prospect in the group. Rafael Ynoa is a potential contributor as well.

Yasiel Puig, in addition to being shelved on the DL, has now been arrested in Chattanooga.

Dodgers prospect Yasiel Puig was arrested Sunday morning and charged with speeding, reckless driving and driving without proof of insurance.

Puig was arrested by police in Chattanooga, Tenn., and spent a short time in the Hamilton County jail before he was released. Puig has a hearing in Hamilton County court scheduled for May 14.

“We’re aware of it … we take it seriously,” said Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti. “We’ll be handling discipline internally.”

As far as arrests go, this is probably best-case scenario, but it’s still dumb.

—–

Ted Lilly was recalled on Wednesday and Tim Federowicz was optioned. Then on Saturday, Stephen Fife was placed on the DL and Matt Magill was recalled.

—–

In MILB news, the team released LHP Gregg Downing.

Luis Cruz has been … not-so-good in 2013. Okay, he’s been absolutely atrocious. Just terrible.

Mike Petriello at Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness has gone through all the statistical hoops to show exactly how bad Cruz has been in 2013 (go read it, even I didn’t realize how terrible he’s been).

Hint: It’s bad.

2013 lowest wOBA, min 50 PA
5. Dustin Ackley, .174
4. Clint Barmes, .155
3. Aaron Hicks, .148
2. Jeff Keppinger, .137
1. Luis Cruz, .089

So Cruz is the worst hitter in baseball this season among regular players, and it’s not even particularly close. Wonderful.

Okay, so that puts his 2013 into context, but it doesn’t answer the question of why he’s been so bad.

Granted, the most significant factor at play is that he’s been a career minor-leaguer and that this is probably closer to reality than 2012, but has anything else besides that changed?

—–

Well, a lot of the horrific line has to do with a .103 BABIP, which is astoundingly low. However, that’s not to say it’s necessarily all been bad luck, as he has an amazingly high 31.8% infield pop-up rate. The scary thing is that’s being generous, because if you watch the games you’d see how many fly-balls he hits that are of the lazy can-of-corn variety into the shallow outfield. Furthermore, his 7.7% infield hit rate is unusually high for a batter who’s not a burner, so he’s actually been quite fortunate in that regard.

The bad contact is only compounded by increased struggles to actually make contact and an almost non-existent walk rate. Last year, he walked 3% of the time and struck out 12% of the time, which already threw up red flags for many. However, it’s been worse this year, as his walk rate is even worse (2%) and the strikeouts are up (16%).

In other words, all signs point to the serious concerns being valid, and the root cause of that may be how he’s being approached by pitchers now.

Opposing hurlers now have a history on him to start the year, and they seem to be pitching him much differently. Last year, he saw 37.8% four-seamers and produced 0.34 runs above average per 100 pitches against that pitch. Additionally, he saw 11.4% two-seamers and produced -2.66 RAA/100. This year, he’s seeing 30.5% four-seamers and 5.2% two seamers, producing -5.74 RAA/100 and -7.03 RAA/100, respectively.

That’s a difference of 13.5% less four-seam and two-seam fastballs that he’s seeing this year. Keeping a batter off-balance is one of the most important jobs of any pitcher, and their new sequencing approach to Cruz seems to be doing just that.

Pitchers always adjust to hitters and vice versa. It’s a constant battle, but the hitters that stay in the majors are able to adjust back, and that’s now Cruz’s goal going forward.

—–

Perhaps another reason is a mechanical change. I got a tweet last week asking about his mechanics, and I finally got around to taking a look.

Before is on the top and recent is on the bottom.

This shows how Cruz is setting up, and it’s of the frame before the pitcher starts his motion. Not much changes from this moment until he starts his approach.

There’s a pretty clear difference here, as he’s standing more upright and more open in the before than he is currently. Additionally, his hands were much higher before.

None of this actually matters, of course. Well, unless it carries over to his approach to the pitch…

Not a ton of difference, but I can clearly see that he’s a lot more compact now than he was previously. He used to stand tall throughout the approach, but now he’s compressing his body more for whatever reason.

The most significant issue, though, is that he was further away from the plate before and used to continue to dive towards it after this frame. With his current setup, he now stays squarer to the pitcher.

None of that is especially problematic, but it’s a case of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’, and I’m not sure what exactly precipitated this change. If nothing else, he’s clearly standing closer to the plate this year and compressing his approach to the ball. Hopefully none of the Dodgers coaches did anything to him, because with a timing device like his and a ton of moving parts, him hitting well is more dependent than most on his timing, and taking steps to change that is foolish.

—–

With all that said, none of this (and I mean none of it) is going to compensate for the skill aspect of his struggles. A top prospect with all the tools in the world will struggle at times to become a major-league regular, so a career minor-leaguer becoming a regular was always going to be the longest of shots.

Correcting the pitch selection or mechanics of guys like Chad Billingsley or Matt Kemp or Carl Crawford or even James Loney will be far more impactful than fixing Luis Cruz because of the talent gap. But he’s never been THIS bad, so subtle changes to his current approach could lead to respectable production, which could land him in a utility role due to his plus defense at two positions.

Tom Garfinkel, President and CEO of the Padres, spoke with season-ticket holders about the Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin brawl, and he placed the blame on Greinke for the incident.

While somewhat deluded, it’s not all that surprising. However, also included on the tape that Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports acquired is audio of him essentially mocking Greinke (who has social anxiety disorder) as autistic.

“He threw at him on purpose, OK?” Garfinkel told an estimated crowd of 40 or 50 at Petco Park on Friday, a day after the fight. “That’s what happened. They can say 3-and-2 count, 2-1 game, no one does that. Zack Greinke is a different kind of guy. Anyone seen ‘Rain Man’? He’s a very smart guy.”

What a class act.

The ignorance of equating autism and anxiety is astounding, and it speaks to the general notion that anybody not considered “normal” between the ears can be generalized with a catch-all “head case” pejorative.

I expect as much from players and managers, but from the President and CEO? Disgusting. One would think they would at least know better.

Garfinkel went on to apologize to Stan Kasten and Greinke … but not really:

“I was emotional the day after the game and regrettably, while defending our player, I said some things I shouldn’t have, especially as it relates to Zack Greinke,” Garfinkel told Yahoo! Sports. “I was out of line and I apologize.

The thing is though, he doesn’t care. Remember, this was a private meeting with a group of season-ticket holders, so he only cares that he got caught.

I mean, he said as much himself:

“This is my opinion, and I can’t say it publicly,” Garfinkel told the crowd, “but I guess this is public, so please don’t tweet it out. We’re in the trust tree here, in the nest.

In his apology, he doesn’t specifically address what was wrong about his rant. Rather, he just gives a stock ‘sorry’ because he’s in damage control mode.

As if to pile on with his ignorance, he goes on to literally make up justifications for Quentin charging the mound, blames Greinke for getting hurt, and makes a comment in opposition to what Quentin has said to the media.

“Obviously, I don’t condone fighting and I wish it wouldn’t have happened. You never want to see any player get hurt.”

“I don’t know about you guys, but I’m 6-3, 225,” Garfinkel told the ticket holders. “If Carlos Quentin was running at me, I would not put my shoulder down.”

I got into a few arguments over this logic on Twitter, but to me, arguing this is completely asinine. Basically, he’s criticizing how Greinke choose to defend himself.

Why … why is the person being attacked responsible for the damage done to him?

“I mean, yeah, he got punched in the face. But your honor, why didn’t the victim turn his head away to lessen the damage?”

Sweet argument.

Then there’s this point lie he told, which Passan called him on:

Garfinkel’s certainty about the purpose of the pitch stemmed from information he received about Greinke’s predilection to avoid pitching inside as well as the belief in the Padres’ front office that the count and situation didn’t necessarily absolve him from intentionally hitting Quentin. Garfinkel told the crowd he saw a heat map, which highlights the locations a pitcher has targeted in the past, and that it showed over the last three years Greinke had not thrown a single pitch on a 3-2 count to right-handed hitters on the inner half of the plate.

The heat map was misleading. PITCHf/x data provided by Baseball Prospectus’ Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis shows of the 219 full-count pitches Greinke threw to right-handers from 2010-2012, 81 were on the inner half of the plate. While the 37 percent inside rate is among the bottom one-third among starting pitchers, the data shows, Greinke is nowhere near the unlikeliest to throw there on full counts – and had gone there plenty of times, both in and out of the strike zone, in recent years.

Welp, so much for that.

Also amusing was this part of the speech, in which he blames Greinke for not starting a dialogue with Quentin:

Greinke also knew the potential consequences of hitting Quentin, Garfinkel told the crowd. A threat for retribution had been relayed to him following the second time he plunked Quentin with a pitch, in 2009.

“When Zack Greinke threw at his head a couple times, [Quentin] let it be known through teammates and intermediaries and others that if he does that again, he’s going to have a problem,” Garfinkel said. “This was a couple years ago. So Zack was very aware of that and Zack never apologized and never told him, ‘Hey, I didn’t mean to throw at you. It got away from me.’ Whatever. This was a couple years ago. He knew darn well that was going [to happen].”

Let me get this straight, Tom. You insult the guy for being “Rain Man“, but you expect the same person, who actually has social anxiety disorder, to open up a dialogue with a rival who’s pissed at him?

Again, sound logic. Seems like Tom really thought this one through.

Perhaps dumbest of all, though, is his admission that neither the organization nor Quentin knows what Greinke said to Quentin prior to him charging the mound:

Following the brawl and his ejection, Quentin insinuated that Greinke had said something to him, prompting him to charge the mound, and that it “was the final straw.” Garfinkel said neither he nor Quentin is certain of what Greinke said, and that even some people in the Padres’ baseball-operations department who can read lips were unsure.

“We don’t know what he said,” Garfinkel said. “I asked Carlos. He doesn’t know what he said. I do know that, I mean, everybody saw the tape. Everybody saw what happened. He didn’t say, ‘I’m sorry, I didn’t mean to hit you.’ He threw his glove down, stuck his chest out.”

1) He threw his glove down after Quentin had started charging him. You have to be seriously delusional to dispute this … which is why he’s disputing it.

2)

Carlos Quentin to media: “I charged Greinke because of what he said to me.” Padres CEO to fans: “Carlos doesn’t know what Greinke said.” OK.

— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) April 18, 2013

Oops.

Way to call your own player’s truthfulness into question.

—–

So not only did Garfinkel represent the Padres poorly by showing off his ignorance, lack of rationality, and by outright lying, but he also indirectly called Quentin a liar by revealing that nobody has any idea what Greinke said, despite that being used as justification for fighting him.

So if there was any doubt that all of this was nothing more than the result of a Quentin temper tantrum (he once ended his own season with one), and that Quentin’s excuses for the incident after the fact are all baloney, then there shouldn’t be anymore. None of them knows what happened, and they can’t even get their stories straight, but they’ll go to the media saying they know the reason stuff went down, they’ll take offensive jabs at the opposition, and they’ll lie to their fanbase to justify it all.

Pathetic.

MLB doesn’t want to see things get ugly between the Dodgers and the Padres on Monday, and Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the league will try to make their ruling on the matter by the time the series rolls around.

Major League Baseball is speeding up Carlos Quentin’s appeal of his eight-game suspension — a suspension that stems from his recent dust-up with Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke — so that he can begin serving his time before his Padres and those same Dodgers meet in Los Angeles on Monday. Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that a ruling on Quentin’s appeal could come as soon as Sunday.

“Major League Baseball is very aware of the situation,” a league source told Center on Saturday. “I think everyone would like to see a little time between the incident and Quentin’s next appearance at Dodger Stadium.”

Given all that’s transpired, it’s probably for the best. To be frank, the last thing this team needs with Zack Greinke out is for another pitcher to get suspended or hurt fighting meaningless grudges with a last place team (Clayton Kershaw, that’s you).

——

The thing about this that irks me though, is that Carlos Quentin charging the mound has created a situation exactly like Greinke speculated Quentin may have been trying to accomplish, where now Dodger pitchers can’t go inside on him. Not because they’re intimidated by him, but because they risk getting thrown out or suspended by the MLB.

For most batters, that wouldn’t be an issue. For Quentin? It absolutely is. He’s been hit 116 times in 2801 career plate appearances, or about 4.1% of the time. Since he averages around four plate appearances a game and there’s three games in the upcoming series, it gives him 12 chances to get hit. The likelihood that he would get hit in the upcoming Dodgers/Padres series AT LEAST once is 39.5%. Skipping this upcoming series, assuming he serves a suspension during it, the teams meet seven more times in 2013, which comes out to a 69.0% chance he gets hit again by the Dodgers this year with no intent (assuming he plays normally, of course).

That is to say that even if the Dodger pitchers had zero interest in any revenge plunking, there’s actually a pretty good chance he would get hit at some point anyway, and the same holds for any future meetings. So not only did he get to take Greinke out of that game, and out of the rotation for two months, but now he’s made himself bulletproof as far as worrying about diving over the plate against the Dodgers in future match-ups.

Justice.

C.J. Nitkowski, for reasons unknown, decided to inject himself into the Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin/Dodgers/Padres brawl discussion, basically saying that Quentin doesn’t hang over the plate any more than Matt Kemp does.

Carlos Quentin stands on top of the plate, hangs over the strike zone? You sure about that? twitter.com/CJNitkowski/st…

— CJ Nitkowski (@CJNitkowski) April 12, 2013

Kemp, same camera, same angle. twitter.com/CJNitkowski/st…

— CJ Nitkowski (@CJNitkowski) April 12, 2013

Damning screencaps, right? Yeah, a lot of people seemed to think so, hence this response, because they both conveniently only show their setups and don’t show why pitchers complain about Quentin diving over the plate and why he gets hit so much.

I find it interesting that he clearly appears to be misleading his followers here, because it’s obvious that the point of contention is how they end up after footstrike, not how they setup. I mean, who cares how a guy sets up if he’s on top of the plate when the ball is about to cross it.

Anyway, so what’s up with the differing reputations of Quentin and Kemp if we’re to believe what the screencaps show, right?

Ah right, it’s because Kemp actually tends to pull out and away from the plate after his setup, while Quentin … well … he dives in after his setup, sort of like everybody has been saying.

That’s both of them at footstrike, where it actually matters in terms of getting out of the way of being hit.

It sort of sucks that both are wearing dark undershirts, because it’s hard to tell exactly where their elbows are (Quentin’s is basically over the inside corner), but it’s still clear to see why Quentin would get hit more than Kemp.

Besides the fact that it’s harder to rotate out of the way when you dive towards the plate, thus making it harder to avoid being HBP (it’s why he can’t simply move like NotGraphs wants), Kemp has a ton more room for a pitcher to miss inside before even coming close to hitting him. With Quentin, if you miss anywhere in and above the belt, he’s at risk to take it off his forearm. You know, sort of like he did twice in this series. And 100+ other times over his career.

To be frank, I feel stupid for even having to write this post, since a player doesn’t have one of the highest HBP rates ever for no reason, but people seem to actually be buying into this garbage, and Jayson Stark actually retweeted it as “interesting”, so it deserved an explanation.

So in case you were under a rock yesterday, Zack Greinke has a broken collarbone and is out for a while, essentially because Carlos Quentin is an idiot.

As one would imagine, the reactions to what went down from the Dodgers dugout, media, and bloggers weren’t the most pleasant towards Quentin.

=====

Don Mattingly called him an idiot and said he should be suspended for however long Greinke is out.

“I don’t understand it either. We’re in a 2-1 game, and on a 3-2 pitch to guy I saw on the board set a record for the Padres by getting hit, a guy that basically dives into the plate. In a 2-1 game we’re trying to hit him 3-2? It’s just stupid, is what it is,” said manager Don Mattingly. “He should not play a game until Greinke can throw a pitch. If he plays before Greinke pitches, something is wrong.”

“He caused the whole thing,” Mattingly said of Quentin. “Nothing happens if you go to first base like in baseball you know you do, because you know he’s not throwing at you 3-2, in a 2-1 game. That’s zero understanding of the game of baseball.”

I don’t disagree.

—–

Matt Kemp went the extra mile to try and find out why Quentin charged the mound.

Kemp and Quentin were nose-to-nose before Richard stepped in. Kemp kept asking Quentin why he did it.

Matt Kemp confronted Carlos Quentin as the 2 were leaving Petco Park. Clayton Richard, cops, security broke it up.

Pretty stupid when you think about it. Last thing the team needs is for him to get hurt and/or suspended for dealing with that asshole.

While on the field though, Kemp lost it after he heard about Greinke being hurt.

Mattingly on Matt Kemp, one of three ejected: “once he knew Zack was hurt, he lost it

That reaction is more understandable to me.

—–

A.J. Ellis said that even a Padres player thought it was bullshit.

A.J. Ellis said #Padres players apologized for Quentin’s actions. “It’s not right, it’s not right,” he said one player told him.

Amusing that people are defending Quentin when people on his own team don’t even agree … off the record, of course.

—–

Speaking of the Padres, in a move of sheer class, Jerry Hairston Jr. relays that the reason he ran over to the Padres dugout, after things had seemingly settled a bit, was to confront a player making fun of the injured Greinke.

“It’s terrible. It’s unacceptable, and I lost it. If a guy’s going to hit you, he’s going to hit you on the very first pitch. This is The Show, you don’t do that stuff. My teammate now has a broken f—ing collarbone, because he hit you on a 3-2 pitch?” Hairston said. “I don’t know Carlos at all, I really don’t, but he was wrong.”

Hairston was ejected for going after one of the Padres after the initial melee had died down.

“I was playing peacemaker, just trying to break it up. Obviously Zack was hurt. One of the guys was chirping the whole time, making fun of him for having the hurt shoulder, broken collarbone, or whatever,” Hairston said.

Losing Zack stings, but we ll pick each other up. Zacks like my little brother. Saw someone making fun of him being injured. Not cool!!

Hairston said it wasn’t Yonder Alonso, and I’ve heard it was John Baker, which would make perfect sense since he’s a backup catcher nobody that will never have to answer for running his mouth. Who knows what the truth is, but it would explain why Hairston lost it.

=====

As far Quentin goes, his excuses after the game were about as irrational as you’d expect.

Quentin blames Greinke for history of HBP. Quentin said he has led league in HBP 2 years running and has never charged mound in MLB.

Translation: “I always lead the league in being hit, but never charge the mound. I did this time though! Why? His fault! But I won’t tell you why.”

Quentin, asked if any remorse: “I did what I did. It could have been avoided.”

Yeah, by you not charging the mound.

Look, I mentioned this in the other post, but Quentin gets hit a lot because of how he dives into the plate, so him getting hit multiple times by pitchers he faced a ton shouldn’t be surprising. In fact, if getting hit by Greinke often was his rationale for being upset, then Jon Weisman found a list of players Quentin should have been raging at before tonight:

The short list of pitchers who clearly have it in for Carlos Quentin: twitter.com/jonweisman/sta…

— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) April 12, 2013

It’s a long list for a reason, put it that way.

So, hear my plea Carlos Quentin: FUCKING MOVE!

Move out of the way. Just don’t be in that place when the pitch comes at you. I know some plunkings are unavoidable. But surely you can cut down on a lot of them. Duck, or spin away, or bend backward or something. Just fucking move. Take your walk the traditional way.

A post written in jest, but prophetic nevertheless.

—–

For his part, Greinke said he didn’t hit Quentin on purpose but knows Quentin thinks he did.

“The only thing I’ll say about that is that I’ve never hit him on purpose,” Greinke said. “He always seems to think I hit him on purpose, but that’s not the case.”

It was the third time in 31 career plate appearances that Greinke hit Quentin. But he is hardly alone in that regard, as Quentin leads the majors with 97 HBP since the beginning of 2008.

“I thought it was a ploy to get people to not throw inside to him, so he can lean out away,” Greinke said. “I don’t know anyone who has hit him on purpose.”

Quentin maintained Greinke hit him intentionally.

“Myself and Greinke have a history, it dates back to a few years ago. You guys could look it up. It’s documented. It’s unfortunate about the situation. It could have been avoided. You can ask Zack about that,” Quentin said. “I can tell you I’ve never responded in that fashion before.”

Speaking of Quentin complaining about getting hit while diving over the plate, Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong gave a quote last year when Quentin got mad at him for throwing inside that basically sums Quentin’s attitude up.

A reminder after taking in the brawl last night between the Dodgers and Padres after Zack Greinke hit Carlos Quentin, who then charged the pitcher and broke his collarbone: Last Aug. 19 in San Diego, Ryan Vogelsong had a beef with Quentin after hitting him with a pitch, and Clayton Richard retaliating by hitting Brandon Belt.

Vogelsong fumed after the game that Quentin crowds the plate and should not react the way he does.

“Go look at the video,” Vogelsong fumed. “It was a two-seamer that ran of the plate. That guy hammers balls over the plate and he gets pissed when you throw the ball inside. It doesn’t make sense. Every time you hit a guy in this game now they think you did it on purpose. It’s tired.”

Sounds familiar.

—–

As far as the accusation that Greinke was trying to instigate a fight:

Zack Greinke was asked if he wanted to fight Carlos Quentin. “I can’t remember the last time I wanted to get in a fight with someone.”

I think most would agree that he seems like the last person who would want to start anything physical.

=====

As for the opposing side, Padres fans are handling this extremely classy … hahahaha no.

This doesn’t even scratch the surface of it, but just to give you a taste:

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

My take: you never want to see a player charging the mound, but it’s not like it’s never happened before. (1/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Greinke intentionally moved his body into harm’s way and charged at Quentin. He didn’t have to. That’s his own fault. (2/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Quentin may have started it, but Greinke’s response was “challenge accepted.” You get what you ask for in this world.

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Remember guys, Quentin started it, we can all agree on that, but once Quentin started walking toward Greinke and then charged, Greinke didn’t run away, therefore, any injury suffered is HIS fault.

I’d hate for that guy to be in charge of the law. If you got assaulted on the street, his advice would be to not fight back or else you deserve everything that happens to you.

Logic.

=====

Anyway, reading through my Twitter timeline, seems like the consensus among even non-Dodger fans is “fuck Quentin”, so in conclusion:

Going into the bottom of the sixth inning, the Dodgers held a 2-1 lead over the Padres, and Zack Greinke was rolling along. Unfortunately, to lead off the inning, he hit Carlos Quentin with a 3-2 pitch.

Crappy situation to put the lead-off man on, obviously, but no big deal apart from that, except:

So Quentin is a goddamn idiot.

Nobody is dumb enough to think Greinke did that intentionally when he’s clinging onto a lead and rolling along, except Quentin, because apparently he’s still hanging on to something that happened FOUR YEARS AGO between the White Sox and Royals.

An instance between Carlos Quentin and Greinke with one out in the fourth stood out as the game’s only real fireworks, and even this uprising didn’t amount to much. Quentin was hit squarely in the back by a Greinke pitch and immediately took a couple of steps toward the mound.

Home-plate umpire Bill Hohn stepped in front of Quentin and catcher Miguel Olivo quickly restrained the slugger. Television broadcasts showed Quentin telling Olivo that he was all right, and Quentin moved down to first base.

By Greinke’s estimation, it was a first-inning pitch that got away and almost hit Quentin in the head causing the residual anger three innings later.

“He had a reason for [being upset],” said Greinke of Quentin. “Any time you throw it that high, it’s justified. You’ve got to be better than that and not pitch like that. You’re going to make mistakes, but the last thing you want to do is hit someone where it could seriously hurt them. As soon as I let go of it, I was scared for him.”

“Well, everybody that gets hit gets upset, especially when you aren’t swinging the bat well and all of a sudden you get hit,” Guillen said. “That’s part of the game. Carlos is a guy who is going to get hit a lot because he stands on top of the plate. I don’t think it was intentional.”

So at the time, Greinke was understanding about Quentin’s feelings, but even Quentin’s own manager, Ozzie Guillen, said he thought it wasn’t intentional.

Then there’s this fact:

One thing to consider: If Greinke had it out for Quentin, why wait? After HBP on April 8, 2009, they faced each other 15 times from ’09-’10.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 13, 2013

So there’s that.

If this was a vendetta on Greinke’s part, the argument is that he’s been holding this in for four years to get back at Quentin for … what reason now?

Ugh.

—–

And about Quentin crowding the plate? Yeah, he does it, and he gets hit A LOT by everybody.

There is one White Sox player who threatens to be the best ever at what he does: Carlos Quentin. That’s right, in more than 2,200 plate appearances, Quentin is already threatening the top of a certain leaderboard.

Yes. Carlos Quentin just might be the best hit-by-pitcher of all time. Since 2000, no one has managed to be hit in as many as four games in a row. Quentin was once hit in six games in a row, and is second on that same list with three straight earlier this month.

Quentin gets hit a lot, and by everybody, so for him to make this his stand is ridiculous.

He doesn’t even have good reason to have issue with Greinke specifically:

Tweet from Oney Guillen: “greinke has hit carlos many many times … told me long long time ago. if he does it again im going for him.”

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) April 12, 2013

@jay_jaffe Exactly. Blackburn, Lester and Bedard had done so even more often, 14 others in addition to Greinke had hit him twice.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) April 12, 2013

So despite Oney Guillen contradicting his own dad, being an idiot, and generally exaggerating, he confirms that Quentin has a vendetta against Greinke, not vice versa, despite the fact that he’s been hit twice or more by an awful lot of pitchers.

Look, if you’re going to crowd the plate in an attempt to take a side of it away from the pitcher and for better coverage, accept the consequences. You didn’t see Craig Biggio whining about it and throwing temper tantrums. It’s part of the deal.

The worst part though is that Greinke left the field with trainer Sue Falsone, meaning Quentin’s dumbass, illogical temper tantrum may have caused an injury.

Furthermore, the Dodgers basically have no recourse here, because the Padres suck:

Worst part is there’s no way to retaliate against this what do you do hit Will Venable?

— Andrew Grant (@realandrewgrant) April 12, 2013

As you know, I’m not one for throwing at guys as retaliation, but how are the Dodgers supposed to get justice for an opposing player basically trying to physically assault one of their own players? Trust MLB to do the right thing and suspend him for as many games as Greinke is out? Please, the team will never get the justice they want from them.

So now we all have to wait and hope that nothing is seriously wrong with Greinke, and all of this is because Quentin acted like a little child. And because he’s a fucking idiot.

—–

Update

BREAKING: Zack Greinke suffered a fractured left collarbone.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 12, 2013

Welp, there’s that.

Suspend him for three months.

—–

Matt Kemp thinks the whole situation is bullshit.

I like Yasiel Puig. I like him a lot, actually. I even ranked him as the top prospect in the Dodgers system for 2013.

However, if you follow me on Twitter, most of what I tweet about him is sort of dismissive. That’s not because I’m not excited about him, but rather because he seems to make people incredibly stupid.

For example, look at the tweets just from the last couple of days replying to Dylan Hernandez when he mentions Puig, and you can find shit like this:

@dylanohernandez bench Kemp and put Puig in

— Ryan Perez(@WreckItRyan) April 7, 2013

@dylanohernandez if only we had an outfield spot or two occupied by sorry ass players (Etheir/Kemp) where Puig could be plugged in to.

— Herbie Verstinks (@HerbieVerstinks) April 7, 2013

Bench Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier after six games in 2013! Sounds like a rational plan!

@dylanohernandez Can he play an infield position?

— Julio Ojeda (@Julio_SportsFan) April 7, 2013

@dylanohernandez try 3B for Puig.

— Monstarr (@rancimo) April 7, 2013

“Can he play positions in the major leagues that he’s never played before and never trained for?!”

I mean … what?

Hanley Ramirez is athletic and talented and has played shortstop in the MLB and MILB forever … and he’s still widely known by most everybody as a horrid defender. Fans can’t stand to watch his slow turns at second base or Dee Gordon throwing the ball away, but Puig? Well shit, he could do it, right? WHY NOT?! How hard could shortstop or third base be?

Ugh.

I would legitimately sooner try Adrian Gonzalez at third. It’s far less dumb.

—–

But those are just four examples and it doesn’t mean anything, right? Yeah, I wish. Feel free to Twitter search for him or just read the replies to mainstream writers whenever his name is brought up. You’ll be amazed by how insane some of the stuff is.

Look, all prospects have promise, and, more than most, I get the excitement. But the Dodgers have had guys who jumped levels and showed flashes of an elite future before, most recently Rubby De La Rosa, but they have never generated anywhere near this type of excitement/delusion.

So while Puig will likely produce in the majors, and he has star upside, what is it exactly about him that makes people lose their goddamn minds? Seriously though, as a meme, it’s entertaining, but people are getting serious about it and I have to implore you to please stop before anything short of a stellar MLB debut/Hall Of Fame career leads to people incessantly booing him … as if he was Kemp after an 0-4 outing in 2013 even after back-to-back .900+ OPS seasons.

Clayton Kershaw‘s extension has been widely anticipated by Dodgers fans for a while now, and most (including me) seem to want it done as soon as possible. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear as if that’s necessarily going to be the case.

A week ago, Dylan Hernandez said nothing was imminent:

Clayton Kershaw’s agent was at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, but a new deal between the Dodgers and their ace didn’t appear imminent, according to people familiar with the situation who weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.

He was right on the money, as no deal has been reached yet and figures are still being thrown around, though the $200 million price tag seems about right, according to Ken Rosenthal.

Clayton Kershaw’s people and the Dodgers are still talking with the season underway, but no one really knows what’s going on behind closed doors. At the same time, no one should be surprised if Kershaw winds up being the first true $200MM pitcher. Inking him for a total of ten years would keep him locked up through his age 34 season and even though that length sounds crazy, Felix Hernandez is signed through age 33 and Justin Verlander through age 36. Rosenthal’s guess is an eight-year, $200MM extension on top of the two years of control that he has left.

If that sounds nuts though, then this might sound even more so, as Kershaw’s price might be getting higher, according to Jon Heyman.

“I hear they’re already over $200 million,” one baseball official said.

Regardless, the encouraging thing is that everybody is reporting that the Dodgers and Kershaw’s agent are deep in negotiations, and that rarely ends without an extension getting done. It figures to be especially true with these new owners and their deep pockets.

Yesterday, the Dodgers dealt Aaron Harang to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez and effectively cleared room in their bullpen for the return of Chad Billingsley on Wednesday.

The Dodgers on Saturday made official their trade of pitcher Aaron Harang and cash to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez.

Oddly enough though, the Rockies designated Harang for assignment immediately, so he’ll likely be elsewhere soon.

As for Hernandez himself, he’s certainly a more proven option than Tim Federowicz, though better is arguable. He’s about a league-average hitter (96 OPS+) for his career, but he’s 37 now and at age 36 he hit .217/.247/.353/.605 with the Rockies. He used to be a solid defender, but that has fallen off considerably with age and is probably a downgrade from T-Fed in that regard. Essentially, he has to hit to be useful, and the Dodgers are banking that he can regain his form, because he could be useful in relieving A.J. Ellis and providing much needed pop off the bench if he’s right.

More than anything though, this was about dumping Harang to clear room in the bullpen so that the return of Billingsley wouldn’t result in something like Paco Rodriguez having to be sent down. So from that perspective, even if Hernandez tanks, they still have T-Fed in the minors and it doesn’t affect the team much.

Money-wise, as you would imagine, the Dodgers are eating salary.

Counting Sunday, Mar. 31, six days of the 183-day season have lapsed. That means the Dodgers are on the hook for $3,095,082 of Hernandez’s salary, and the Rockies responsible for $6,770,492 for Harang, plus the $2 million buyout in 2014, though Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Dodgers would send $4.25 million to Colorado.

So, instead of having $9 million guaranteed to Harang, the Dodgers will instead pay approximately $7,574,590 ($3,095,082 for Hernandez, $229,508 for Harang, and $4.25 million to Colorado). Subtract the major league salary that would have been paid to Tim Federowicz and the Dodgers save approximately $2 million and upgraded their catching depth.

So the team saves ~$2 million but will pay yet another player to perform elsewhere. It’s not a significant deal in terms of impact, but I get the feeling that when all is said and done about the pre-Richie Rich Ned Colletti era, boy are a lot of the contracts that were handed out going to look ridiculous in retrospect.

After starting the season zero for eleventy billion, Matt Kemp finally sheds the title of the worst baseball player ever with a double.

Or whatever.

Never forget.

—–

Baseball Prospectus: Matt Kemp has struggled to start the year, but his poor Spring Training probably has little to do with it.

His career line in 561 plate appearances? .252/.291/.448/.739.

True Blue LA: The Opening Day payroll for the Dodgers is over $240 million.

Baseball America: Draft bonus pools for the 2013 MLB Draft will rise 8.2 percent from last year. The Dodgers have $5,211,700 to spend on their 10 picks within the bonus pool range.

True Blue LA: Here’s all the changes to Dodger Stadium that you’ve been hearing about.

—–

Albuquerque Isotopes: Albuquerque Isotopes Opening Day roster.

True Blue LA: Chattanooga Lookouts Opening Day roster.

True Blue LA: Rancho Cucamonga Quakes Opening Day roster.

Great Lakes Loons: Great Lakes Loons Opening Day roster.

—–

Baseball America: Tomohiro Anraku, potentially the next big thing in Japan, threw 772 pitches in nine days at Koshien.

I guess it’s sad that I’m not even shocked by this. The practice has been going on forever now and there have probably been countless arms ruined far before they even get to Koshien.

Yahoo! Sports: Story on Tomohiro Anraku, Koshien, and the Japanese mentality towards pitch counts.

Hyun Jin Ryu made his Dodgers and MLB debut yesterday, and in the bottom of the six inning he came to bat and did … well … that.

Some people on Twitter didn’t take too kindly to him dogging it, and the fans at the field booed him for it, but most importantly, the dugout didn’t seem to appreciate it, including Don Mattingly.

One message that Ryu figures to receive in the next 24 hours or so will come from manager Don Mattingly, who wasn’t all that thrilled with his effort level after grounding out to third base in the sixth inning. Ryu barely advanced out of the batter’s box before he was thrown out by Pablo Sandoval. Mattingly said he planned to discuss the matter with his new pitcher, the first player jumping directly from the Korean Baseball Organization to the majors.

“He’s slow down to first base, but he can’t be that slow,” Mattingly said.

Personally though, I didn’t and still don’t see the big deal.

Ryu apologized to Dodgers fans for his effort on that play, saying he was “embarrassed,” after hearing some boos from the crowd. Pitchers in Korea don’t bat and Ryu said he was just trying to conserve some energy after realizing the ball was mishit.

To me, that’s a completely logical explanation for what he did.

People reacted like he failed to score on a single from third or got thrown out at first from the outfield or something, but he just jogged on a play that results in an out for a runner like him 99% of the time.

His job isn’t to bust out of the box for infield singles, and the last thing the team needs is for him to pull a Chad Billingsley and tear a hammy trying to beat out a routine grounder for god knows what reason.

Regardless, now he’ll be brainwashed into “correcting” this mistake, and from now on we’ll be robbed of entertainment from his lack of care for running and what I think is actually sound logic as to why he doesn’t bother.

The news of Clayton Kershaw‘s allegedly imminent extension with the Dodgers was broken recently by Mike Petriello, and since then, reporters have chimed in, all confirming the existence of talks.

—–

Jon Heyman confirmed the negotiations and mentioned that Opening Day was not a hard deadline despite what Kershaw has previously said to have preferred.

Star left-hander Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are quietly talking about a multiyear deal, people familiar with the situation say.

While the sides officially aren’t speaking publicly about it, based on how the new Dodgers ownership team has acted and the value it places on big-time players, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers not locking up Kershaw at some point. Opening day isn’t necessarily a hard deadline, though Giants star Buster Posey and Tigers star Justin Verlander treated it as one before making their big deals, for $167 million and $180 million, respectively.

Tim Brown confirmed the talks but says a Dodger official shot down the report, though Kershaw himself seemed to tease that something was in the works.

Nudged again, asked if an agreement could be reached by Monday, Kershaw grinned accommodatingly and said, “Never know.” All lilting at the end, like “stay tuned” or “miracles happen,” one of the two.

Regardless, this ends well for Kershaw. It probably ends well for the Dodgers. An Internet report Friday said the two were nearing agreement on an eight-year, $200 million extension. The Dodgers have not been of the mood to comment either way, though one official shook his head gravely at the report.

Negotiations proceed. As of Friday afternoon, there was nothing. A lot could change in a day, two, almost three. Presumably, if there is a handshake, it will be to seal something in the range of eight years, and something in the neighborhood of $200 million. That would appear to be where the market is headed.

Given that the official Dodgers executive position on the matter is that rule number one about the Kershaw contract negotiations is that there is no Kershaw contract negotiations, it doesn’t shock me that a random Dodgers official refused to confirm a deal.

Locally, Bill Shaikin also confirmed that negotiations are taking place.

People familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity said Friday that the Dodgers were having contract conversations with former National League Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw.

Perhaps most promising, though, were tweets by Ramona Shelburne, who yesterday after the game described the extension as “imminent” and that word around the clubhouse was the deal would “get done”.

So for everybody asking about it and worrying about it because Kershaw’s preferred deadline has already passed, I would advise you to calm down, because all indications seem to point to a deal being finished sometime soon.

The Dodgers beat the rival Giants on Opening Day at home to begin 2013, but it wasn’t so much the win that was surprising as how they did it.

Leading off the bottom of the eighth inning of a 0-0 game, Clayton Kershaw was left in to hit, and he justified the decision, not with his arm, but with his bat.

That was his first career homer, and it made people lose their minds.

Never been prouder of Dodger fans as when they completed that successful high five.

So … that happened too.

Then Matt Kemp and the dugout did whatever this is:

Zombie dance?

And Luis Cruz is so excited. We so excited.

Fun fun fun.

Unfortunately, Kershaw is basically the worst curtain call giver in history.

We can work on that though.

We are on the cusp of a new MLB season, which means that fans and those interested in baseball betting are starting to think about which teams could conceivably win the American and National leagues, and the World Series. When it comes to the National League, there are sides from all three of the divisions (East, West, and Central) that have a real chance to take the pennant.

The favorites from the NL East division is currently the Washington Nationals – although the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies must also be considered in contention. Washington are favorites, both for the East division and the NL, with odds of 7/2. The West division looks likely to put up two real contenders – the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers have spent big – their payroll is rumored to be between $215 and $230 million – but the Giants are the holders of the World Series and will not want to lose that crown. This could be a titanic battle, especially compared with the Central division – where most expect the Cincinnati Reds to be the only serious contenders for the National League pennant. They won the division by nine games last year, and will hope to go one better by taking the pennant this season.

If you find it too hard to select a team to bet on for the National League at this stage, you may prefer to play a game like Hot Shot at an online casino and bide your time. Hot Shot is a baseball themed slots game which can be found at places like www.iphonecasino.com.au, with a maximum cash jackpot of $2000 available. Even if you don’t manage to win this, you should certainly win something by playing it, thanks to the nine pay-lines and the presence of a wild icon on the reels. It’s the burning baseball, and it can substitute for other missing icons to give you a winning reel – which in turn activates the great sound effect of a bat hitting a baseball. Throw in crowd noises throughout and reel icons of baseball players, catchers’ mitts, and typical baseball snacks, and you have one of the best sports slots games around.

=====

Sponsored post.

Happy Easter!

My Dodgers prospects pre-season rankings for 2013 are here, but it’s a bit of a short and sweet version.

I was planning on re-starting Prospect Profiles again this year, but unfortunately, I got busy and ran out of time.

:-(

However, since I still have the information I’ve gathered through watching the games and what not, I think what I’ll do is just release scouting reports throughout the year along with fellow writer Dustin Nosler. Hopefully by next year I have the time to do them correctly.

Also, if there are any questions or whatever, feel free to e-mail or comment.

Note: I’m likely going to edit this with further info and definitions and whatnot later, but I wanted to get the list out before the season, no matter how late, comparatively speaking.

—–

Abridged Prospect Thoughts

Yasiel Puig is now a known commodity among Dodger fans, but I was really close to putting Corey Seager ahead of him. Puig is closer to making an impact, but I think Seager has the potential for a more valuable package after factoring in positional scarcity and overall hitting approach.

Hyun Jin Ryu‘s ceiling is limited, but he’s probably the least risky of any prospect besides Paco Rodriguez. I doubt we see Nomomania or Fernandomania (Monstermania?) with him, but above-average is well within reach. Quite frankly, I’ve liked what I’ve seen as spring has progressed. He was siting 90-92 towards the end, which is much much much more promising than earlier when he was 86-88.

I do like Zach Lee, and I think there’s relatively low risk for him, but it’s been a couple years and I haven’t seen anything electric out of him like people have been hoping.

Joc Pederson and Chris Reed didn’t do anything wrong, the farm system just got better.

A lot of people seem confused as to what Onelki Garcia throws besides a hammer curve and a plus fastball, but he told me himself that he has a three-pitch mix and three variations on the fastball. As such, I’m not sure if there’s a rush to pigeonhole him as a reliever already. Certainly he has that floor, but I think there’s more here. A solid season from him could see him near the top in 2014 or by mid-season even.

As readers who have followed since I started Prospect Profiles know, I’ve always liked Matt Magill. I had faith in him initially because of his solid mechanics, plus slider, and projectability, and while it did take time, he finally put it all together. With his fastball taking an uptick, I’m obviously high on him. However, he’s not a finished product by any means. There’s still work to do, but it’s the constant improvement that’s promising.

Relievers aren’t extremely valuable unless they are closer material, but it’s hard for me to pass on a prospect like Paco Rodriguez, who is basically a lock as a MLB contributor, who comes with a setup man ceiling, and who is rapidly closing in on it.

Ross Stripling, Zachary Bird, Garrett Gould, Rob Rasmussen. A quartet of starters, and I like them all in different ways, but 2013 will tell a lot about their futures, I think. They all have promise, but I’d like to see a step forward in terms of results, especially from Gould. Bird reminds me of what I liked in Magill, as they’re both projectable and have breaking balls, but he’s further along in the sense that he’s already sitting high-80s. Stripling is like a college version of Lee to me, where nothing stands out, but I think he could be a mid-rotation type of starter. Rasmussen has a chance to move up if he can miss bats. Normally I wouldn’t rank a guy with his peripherals, but his stuff is better than the numbers show and I’m holding out hope he can use his tools to generate more swings and misses.

Not gonna pretend I’ve see a ton of Jesmuel Valentin, but I do like what little I have seen, and other reports have backed it up. I’m not normally a fan of draft prospects initially touted for defensive tools, but after you get past that, he does swing it better than I think some advertised.

Chris Withrow is going to dedicate himself to a relief role, and if he can stay healthy, I expect big things from him in 2013. His stuff was immense as a starter, but he just couldn’t harness it effectively. He already brought his ERA down in 2012 to ~2.5 as a reliever from ~6.0 as a starter, and the hope is that the relief role will make it easier for him to focus and command better. I expect his stuff to be electric in relief and to miss plenty of bats, so the control will write his story.

Still think Alex Castellanos can be a bench bat or a second-division starter. Basically, I think he can hit enough to be solid. A solution for a team with the Dodgers payroll? No, but worthwhile nevertheless. Tim Federowicz is a similar player, just at a more valuable position and probably more of a sure thing as a contributor. I don’t think he’s better than a backup on a playoff-caliber team, but there’s value in a glove-first reserve that might be able to hit a bit.

Josh Wall, Steven Ames, Scott Griggs, and Jose Dominguez are all relievers, but I do think they all could be good ones. Wall has a chance to contribute in 2013, and has plus stuff, but could improve his command within the zone. Ames, also a potential 2013 contributor, has lesser stuff but has better control. Griggs has a plus fastball and slider that should miss bats at any level, but it’s a matter of control. Think of him as a less advanced version of Withrow. Dominguez’s upside speaks for itself as he touches triple digits, and while his control is a concern, I’m more worried about whether his secondary pitches will come along.

I was high on Scott Barlow last year because he was sitting in the low-90s and could reach back for mid-90s. Plus, he had four pitches and a breaking ball that flashed plus. The slider and change were works in progress, but there were the makings of a starter in there. Unfortunately, he had Tommy John surgery, so that’s obviously a setback, but if he can get back to where he was, there’s no reason he can’t find his mid-rotation upside again, which would loom large in a system that lacks depth (if you couldn’t tell from that reliever run).

Angel Sanchez was one of my bigger disappointments, as I really saw him taking steps forward over the course of 2011. Most people are dropping him due to his performance in 2012, but for me, the ERA is whatever. What concerned me is that he was still unable to turn his swing-and-miss stuff into actual results against A-ball competition. I still think he can bounceback though because his arm strength remains, hence the rating here.

Darnell Sweeney … lazy comp … must resist … DEE GORDON! Okay, that seems like stereotypical racial profiling, but if you look at him, it’s the first thing that comes to mind because of the build. He has holes in his swing, but he can surprise you with his pop and has some projection. Hopefully he actually grows into his body, unlike Gordon.

Not sure Jharel Cotton is on a lot of lists, and that’s understandable, but I thought I would give my biggest potential 2013 mover a spot. If he can continue to build on his arm strength and remain sitting in the low-90s and touching 94-95, he could open a lot of eyes this year.

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Others To Watch

Julio Urias
Alex Santana
Jeremy Rathjen
Aaron Miller
Andres Santiago
O’Koyea Dickson
Jesus Valdez

The Dodgers announced the cuts of eight players yesterday, moves that essentially set the Opening Day roster for the team.

The club reassigned right-handers Kevin Gregg and Peter Moylan, utility man Alfredo Amezaga and catcher Matt Wallach to Minor League camp.

In addition, the Dodgers optioned outfielder Alex Castellanos, right-hander Stephen Fife, utility man Elian Herrera and right-hander Josh Wall to Minor League camp.

Welp, this turned out completely differently than what I had assumed was going to happen, with some moves for the better and some for the worse. However, the primary reason that happened was because the Dodgers basically pushed back the tough decisions for a week or two.

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Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Luis Cruz
SS – Justin Sellers
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Juan Uribe
B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
B – Skip Schumaker

DL – Hanley Ramirez

Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Hyun Jin Ryu

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P. Howell
RP – Paco Rodriguez
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Chris Capuano
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Chad Billingsley
DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

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So that’s the Opening Day roster barring a sudden injury or trade.

I still don’t understand why Justin Sellers needs to be the starter when a platoon at third would work just fine. Regardless, nothing we can do about it now except hope that Sellers hits a lot of balls on the ground and those balls find holes over the next couple of months.

Pleasantly surprised though that Paco Rodriguez makes the staff over Kevin Gregg and friends, as he’s probably the fourth-best reliever on this team right now.

As I alluded to earlier though, the bad part is that this is temporary. Scott Elbert and Hanley Ramirez are out months, but Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly can come off the DL soon because their stints are retroactive, so moves will need to be made similar to what I speculated earlier.

Basically, trades needs to happen, and soon. I struggle to see a way they make carrying seven or eight starters work long-term without damaging the potential of the bullpen, because they’d have to make moves like sending Paco down because he has options.

So all in all, while the Opening Day roster is set, what the team has really done is just push the tough decisions back, so it’s now in a week or two that we’ll see what the team truly plans on doing for the rest of the season.

Clayton Kershaw will be extended for 8 years and $200 million by the Dodgers sooner than later, according to Mike Petriello, who is now a reporter as well as a blogger.

None of that seems all that interesting any longer, because I can reliably report that Clayton Kershaw is going to sign an eight-year, $200m extension with the Dodgers, possibly as soon as tonight. If so, that would blow away all of us — myself included — who thought that $200m was an unattainable goal, though clearly deals since then have impacted that.

No word yet on the structure of the deal, but if it begins in 2013, as I expect it would, then it would cover Kershaw’s age 25-32 seasons. It’s a ludicrous amount of money, but that is exactly the timeframe I want a pitcher, and Kershaw’s obviously the kind of pitcher (and person) you’d want to lock up for that.

It’s not official yet, but I expect it to be in the next 24-48 hours, if not sooner. Much more to come, no doubt.

Most of us speculated that the sky was the limit on his extension, but $200 million warranted skepticism unless they were extending him for a decade. Well, never underestimate the unlimited bank account, I suppose, as $25 million annually is now expected to be a reality.

How the value of this and what not shakes out depends on the details, so I’ll wait to analyze that, but locking up an elite starter through his age 25-32 seasons is hard to complain about. Additionally, given the inflating market, it’s hard to find a realistic alternative to this.

Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it’s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it’s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.

Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it’s rare that a team with World Series hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team’s starting SS is out for two months and there’s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it all shakes out.

Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.

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Starting Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS – Luis Cruz
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

SS – Luis Cruz is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.

Yes, I’ve read the recent chatter about Justin Sellers getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release Juan Uribe, or they trade both Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (Jerry Hairston Jr./Skip Schumaker).

My experience with Ned Colletti and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.

3B – Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn’t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If Don Mattingly plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don’t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley’s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.

The alternative of Sellers’ .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!

LF – Carl Crawford certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he’s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can’t see him starting the year on the DL.

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Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Skip Schumaker
B – Juan Uribe
B – Alex Castellanos

DL – Hanley Ramirez

IF Bench – The trio of Nick Punto, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti’s three standards, as reviewed above, so they’re basically locks to me. Tim Federowicz makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except Matt Wallach, and he’s not making the roster.

OF Bench – Why Alex Castellanos, right? Why over Elian Herrera and Alfredo Amezaga? Amezaga is simple, as he’s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don’t think is a quality player anyway, doesn’t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power … and Uribe, who can’t hit at all.

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Starting Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Chad Billingsley
5 – Hyun Jin Ryu

The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it’s been an adventure to get here, it’s basically worked out how it was supposed to.

That said, given the way the schedule looks, it’s possible that Chad Billingsley or Zack Greinke could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.

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Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P Howell
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Kevin Gregg
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

Lefty Reliever – Sorry Paco Rodriguez, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.

Veteran Reliever – Kevin Gregg has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while Peter Moylan is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!

Starter Turned Reliever – Ted Lilly has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don’t whine to me about language. It is what it is.

What happened to Chris Capuano? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over Aaron Harang because he’s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there’s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can’t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.

Either way, I’m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I’m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that’s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned’s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won’t be a Dodger for long.

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Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because … of course it would happen.