Carlos Quentin to be suspended for Dodgers/Padres series + odds he gets hit unintentionally


MLB doesn’t want to see things get ugly between the Dodgers and the Padres on Monday, and Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the league will try to make their ruling on the matter by the time the series rolls around.

Major League Baseball is speeding up Carlos Quentin’s appeal of his eight-game suspension — a suspension that stems from his recent dust-up with Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke — so that he can begin serving his time before his Padres and those same Dodgers meet in Los Angeles on Monday. Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that a ruling on Quentin’s appeal could come as soon as Sunday.

“Major League Baseball is very aware of the situation,” a league source told Center on Saturday. “I think everyone would like to see a little time between the incident and Quentin’s next appearance at Dodger Stadium.”

Given all that’s transpired, it’s probably for the best. To be frank, the last thing this team needs with Zack Greinke out is for another pitcher to get suspended or hurt fighting meaningless grudges with a last place team (Clayton Kershaw, that’s you).


The thing about this that irks me though, is that Carlos Quentin charging the mound has created a situation exactly like Greinke speculated Quentin may have been trying to accomplish, where now Dodger pitchers can’t go inside on him. Not because they’re intimidated by him, but because they risk getting thrown out or suspended by the MLB.

For most batters, that wouldn’t be an issue. For Quentin? It absolutely is. He’s been hit 116 times in 2801 career plate appearances, or about 4.1% of the time. Since he averages around four plate appearances a game and there’s three games in the upcoming series, it gives him 12 chances to get hit. The likelihood that he would get hit in the upcoming Dodgers/Padres series AT LEAST once is 39.5%. Skipping this upcoming series, assuming he serves a suspension during it, the teams meet seven more times in 2013, which comes out to a 69.0% chance he gets hit again by the Dodgers this year with no intent (assuming he plays normally, of course).

That is to say that even if the Dodger pitchers had zero interest in any revenge plunking, there’s actually a pretty good chance he would get hit at some point anyway, and the same holds for any future meetings. So not only did he get to take Greinke out of that game, and out of the rotation for two months, but now he’s made himself bulletproof as far as worrying about diving over the plate against the Dodgers in future match-ups.


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