Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
Dodgers starter Josh Beckett is one of many high-risk, high-reward types of players coming into 2013, and at the time of his acquisition, he was seen as somewhat of a throw-in. This was partially because of his contract, but the fact is that both the statistics and the scouting reports matched up to say that he looked more like a #5 than a #1.
The velocity he once had (as high as 94.7 mph in 2006) is now generally gone (91.4 mph in 2012), so my primary concern was whether or not he was going to be able to adjust to not having his go-to gas anymore. Given his reputation as a hard-head in Boston, the fact that he gained a reputation for pumping fastball after fastball into the strike zone (as high as 69%/top 5 in MLB), and that his fastball performed so miserably in 2012, I had my doubts about whether he was even willing to adjust, much less able to make the transition successful.
However, recently during Spring Training, he acknowledged his loss of velocity and that he’s been working on adjusting to his new reality.
Instead, as Beckett has learned in recent years, he must do things differently. His velocity has declined, so he’s throwing more cutters and curveballs, fretting more about location than at any point before.
“I think velocity is something that leaves you at some point in your career,” Beckett said. “It’s a game of adjustments anyway. We all have to make ‘em. I think I have to rely more on location instead of trying to throw it through a wall. That’s something where you have to set your ego aside. You still have the same mentality. You go about it the same way. But there are certain times where you think, ‘I’m going to throw this ball by this guy.’ Then you think, ‘Wait a minute, I can’t do that. All right, I’m going to throw the ball off the corner and have it work just off the corner.’”
I found this interesting because: 1) he specifically mentioned putting ego aside to do the right thing for success and 2) he seemed aware that some type of adjustments were necessary, which made me take a look at his past pitch distribution.
*Click To Enlarge*
Basically, how he attacks hitters has been a work in progress since at least 2010, which is when his fastball usage came down to about league average. Granted, that’s not all positive, as he’s had up and down results in spite of his efforts, posting FIPs of 3.63, 4.54, 3.57, and 4.15 over the last four years.
The promising thing though is that I don’t think getting him to mix pitches will be as significant of a task as I originally thought, because it’s clear he has already bought in. Thus, if he can stave off further fastball regression, and given the success of his curve in 2012, I feel a lot more comfortable with him potentially achieving his #3 upside, or at least remaining a solid rotation piece, either of which is what the team really needs due to the ticking time bomb in Chad Billingsley‘s right elbow.
Ya, wasn’t there something in the article about how he’s learning to change from being a thrower to a pitcher?
Either way, the success of the Dodger season probably won’t come down to Beckett. I’m more concerned about how Kemp will bounce back and how much Gonzalez will regress this year.
Kemp and Kershaw will always be the cogs, but the rotation could get messy.
Too plausible that Billingsley gets hurt, Ryu struggles to adjust, and they trade Harang/Capuano. Beckett throwing 180-200 innings of solid ball would be a huge stabilizer while everybody else gets their shit together. If he shits the bed too, this could be a two-man rotation in a hurry.
So many question marks on this team. Literally every guy has some issues going into the 2013 season.Hopefully Kemp and Kershaw’s injuries are truly behind them and they can slot back into their roles since they are the driving force of the team. I guess we’re sorta used to having question marks after surviving the McCourt era, but this just seems like a lot going on with everyone. Would love to see these guys all just bring it together at once, but we’ll have to wait and see how things shake out. Should definitely be an interesting and exciting year.
Precisely right. It just shows how flawed the team composition was and frankly, the deals that were crafted last year didn’t seem to address many of them as they brought an onslaught of new questions (e.g. Beckett learning to pitch, Crawford’s tommy john surgery, Gonzalez’s verrrrrrry long contract, ability of Ramirez to play SS or even 3B not to mention how he will be offensively).
There weren’t many other ways to construct this team once they went through with the trade though. The money didn’t buy an elite squad, but it made them playoff contenders overnight, basically buying them out of the darkness of McCourt’s regime and Colletti’s moves.
It’s a lot better than looking at 83-win teams through the primes of Kemp/Kershaw.
Considering the alternative (which we just suffered through), I will take this team in a heartbeat.
2013 is a high-risk, high-reward team, yes. Every non-delusional person knows it, I think.
As far as World Series favorites go, where would you rank the Dodgers?
As a Red Sox fan I was very happy with “the Nick Punto” trade, but I imagine Dodgers’ fans must be pretty excited about the pieces they got as well. That lineup has almost no holes.
With each passing day, Dodgers fans should be more and more down on this deal.
Who knows when Crawford will play (even though he’s on the hook for ~$100MM) and Allen Webster is hitting 99 on the radar gun. And as this post outlined, who even knows what the hell is going on with Beckett and he’s due $15MM this year (and next?).
And Izzy, the Dodgers have plenty of holes. There’s the blackhole in RF known as Andre Ethier against anybody with a pulse that can throw left handed. Matt Kemp who’s coming off injuries. LF outlined above and this doesn’t even get into the infield.
A first base manned by a Gonzalez who’s signed until the end of time that’s been getting worse and worse every year. Second base played by a journeyman. Ramirez at SS who thinks he’s a power hitter and plays his position like he has cement boots on. And a 30 year old career minor leaguer who had a decent 80 game stretch.
Ya, no holes….
God I hate Ned Colletti.
Beckett looks fine. Webster and Rubby were always great prospects, only Dodger apologists have ever tried to argue otherwise with me.
Realistically, Cruz is the only one projected to be a below-average regular, so it’s sort of difficult to argue that the Dodgers have significant concerns like other teams do.
Think about it, our biggest concerns at the moment are the fifth outfielder, Ethier’s platoon partner, and third base.
A lot of the guys are gonna suck later, but in 2013? Doubtful.
I’m well on record with my pessimism so you know, I admit that my views are much darker than everybody else but given how much money the Dodgers took AND having to give up Webster & De La Rosa just seems like the Red Sox pulling the wool over Colletti’s head once again.
The problem with the Dodgers is that given the fragility of Crawford, shouldn’t we upgrade their need to a 3rd/4th outfielder (and not 5th). Granted this same person could probably also double as Ethier’s platoon partner. But just as Mattingly’s continued dismissal of the idea of hitting AJ Ellis leadoff (because he’d clog up the bases, wtf??) so are we confronted with Mattingly’s refusal to acknowledge that Ethier needs a platoon partner. These are ominous signs.
Ominous signs that this isn’t the best team in the majors? Yes. That it’s not a playoff quality team or a team that has relatively little holes? Nah.
And right, I’ve always been iffy on doing that specific deal where both Webster/De La Rosa are included. I assume there had to be a way around that.
Somewhere in the top five, I think. The Giants are probably just behind though.
I was sort of neutral on the trade then and I’m still there. Certainly I see the downside, but if the pieces contribute to a World Series title, it’s hard to argue that it wasn’t worth it.