Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.
For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.
Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.
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Best Overall Pitches
Clayton Kershaw – Curve – .084 TAv
Josh Beckett – Curve – .183 TAv
Joe Blanton – Curve – .183 TAv
Am I surprised by the fact that the curve was the hardest pitch to do damage with? Yes and no. No, because it was bound to be an off-speed pitch, simply because fastballs are easier to command, thus they get thrown when a pitcher is behind in the count while the opposite is true for off-speed stuff. But yes, because I thought it would be the slider, which has basically become synonymous with swings and misses in recent times.
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Best Individual Pitches
Fastball
Ted Lilly – .213 TAv
Chad Billingsley – .241
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Aaron Harang – .256
Joe Blanton – .268
Chris Capuano – .297
Josh Beckett – .307
Is there a better example of the importance of pitch sequencing than this? Granted, it’s a small sample size because of his injury, but the fact that his fastball didn’t get blasted every single time he threw it is a testament to how he has to mix pitches to make his fastball seem harder to hit than it actually is.
Sinker
Chad Billingsley – .232 TAv
Chris Capuano – .272
Josh Beckett – .278
Joe Blanton – .295
Aaron Harang – .307
Annoyed by how I keep ranting on Twitter about how Chad Billingsley needs to throw his fastball more? Yeah, well he finally made the adjustment in 2012, but you should still get comfortable with hearing it, because he needs to continue to do that.
Cutter
Joe Blanton – .253 TAv
Josh Beckett – .282
Chad Billingsley – .336
Curve
Clayton Kershaw – .084 TAv
*Visual Is Above*
Josh Beckett – .183
Joe Blanton – .183
Aaron Harang – .240
Chad Billingsley – .251
Just stupid.
Slider
Chris Capuano – .190 TAv
Clayton Kershaw – .213
Aaron Harang – .218
Joe Blanton – .250
Chad Billingsley – .263
Change
Chris Capuano – .211 TAv
Josh Beckett – .237
Joe Blanton – .264
Chris Capuano is like the anti-Chad Billingsley. He has effective off-speed stuff, but oh boy does his fastball get blasted to high heaven. Really puts an exclamation mark on how he needs to get ahead in the count.
That Kershaw curve is like wow. Truly jaw dropping stuff.
As for Bills, I assume you share in Greinke and Mattingly/Honeycutt’s assessment that he needs to stop throwing the changeup?
Yes.
Not sure why he bothers. Show me pitch, I guess.
cutter? or changeup?
Both.
Well, he can use his cut, but he got to a point a couple years ago where he constantly threw it. It was effective for a while, but then he lost the feel for it or something and shit got ugly.
Visually, I agree. But according to Fangraphs pitch weights, his cutter has been his most effective pitch unitl this year. Although ironically (or not), this year was the year he threw it the least. I assume the effectiveness of the pitch lies somewhere in the middle? Subjectively, he seems to have good command of it armisde, backdooring to lefties/frontdooring to righties. What’re your views on Fangraphs pitch weights?
I think most of this revolves around his command. His raw stuff isn’t problematic, but if you hang everything, it’s gonna get torched.
Pitch weights are fine. He held batters to a .232 TAv in 2011 with the cutter, so it all works out.
I’m fairly certain I read changeup in the article I read but of course, I can’t actually find the damned article (I think it was a Gurnick article at MLB or Shaikin at LAT?)
Cutter.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/mattingly-409445-dodgers-billingsley.html
But you’re right, he should probably stop throwing his changeup too.
Good looking out on the link! I stand corrected.
Billinsgsley’s FB velocity has stayed steady through the years, but his curve keeps getting softer. I distinctly remember games back in ’08 when he would get double digit K’s a night, most of them on the deuce. He used to throw it in the low 80′s with 2 strikes and get chases in the dirt, lefties and righties. Now, though, it avgs 75 and only seems to get freeze guys on called 3′s. Not coincidentally, the pitch weight value on his CB has only gone down as well. Can you look into this, Chad?
Made note of it. I’ll look into it.