Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
Recently, I linked to a FanGraphs article about how stolen bases now matter more and why the break-even point is dropping. In the comments section of that article, a user named “Joshua” asked a question I found interesting.
Joshua says:
November 30, 2012 at 7:32 pmInteresting. What would this do to run expectancy tables and bunting? Is the 1st to 2nd sac bunt now less offensive than before?
I’m sure somebody out there smarter than me has tackled this before, but I had not personally seen this addressed yet, so I thought I would take a look at it.
The FanGraphs article analyzed stolen bases from 2007 to 2012, so I looked at those years as well.
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Run Expectation
2012
Runner On First/Nobody Out: 0.8577
Runner On Second/One Out: 0.6551
Sacrifice Bunt Difference: -0.2026
2011
Runner On First/Nobody Out: 0.8500
Runner On Second/One Out: 0.6492
Sacrifice Bunt Difference: -0.2008
2010
Runner On First/Nobody Out: 0.8666
Runner On Second/One Out: 0.6586
Sacrifice Bunt Difference: -0.2080
2009
Runner On First/Nobody Out: 0.8957
Runner On Second/One Out: 0.6827
Sacrifice Bunt Difference: -0.2130
2008
Runner On First/Nobody Out: 0.9037
Runner On Second/One Out: 0.6891
Sacrifice Bunt Difference: -0.2146
2007
Runner On First/Nobody Out: 0.9284
Runner On Second/One Out: 0.7077
Sacrifice Bunt Difference: -0.2207
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So is it less offensive? Absolutely.
Still mockable and dumb? Yeah.
Outs are always at a premium over advancing one base. There are certain contexts and situations where it makes sense to bunt a player over, but a great majority of the time, it’s still a move that goes against The Book.
One thing I’ve never seen in all the comparisons is the variable that should be factored in when the sacrifice bunt fails. Obviously, we probably can’t quantify the instances when someone gets behind in the account after they miss the bunt or it goes foul. What I’m referring to here is a force-out at 2B after a poor sacrifice attempt. I wonder if there is some way to account for all the times when the runner gets forced out at 2B. What is the percentage of that happening, and how can that be factored in to the difference in runs scored?
And runner at 1B, no outs isn’t even the most egregiously terrible time to call for a sacrifice. The absolute worst time to do it is when a runner is on 2B with no outs, because a missed bunt can result in the runner getting caught in a rundown, and a poor bunt will take your team out of scoring position. This is obviously a worse time for a sacrifice than runners at 1B and 2B with no outs, because even if the runner on 2B gets forced out at 3B, you still end up with at least one runner in scoring position.
Yeah, I haven’t seen anybody account for that yet, but it’s common sense to me that it fails (bunt foul, pop out, force out) more than it works (error, infield single), so that makes the sacrifice even dumber. :o