Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.
Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.
It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.
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The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.
Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.
The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.
Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.
In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.
The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.
The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.
In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.
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If there are any questions, let me know below.
You mentioned that you calculated the WAR of every player. Is this you’re own WAR formula or is it TangoTiger’s? Keep up the great work.
*your
Yeah, I’m working on making a Glossary, but I guess you could call this my version of WAR.
Not to complicated, really.
If there’s any part that you would like more details on, let me know.
These types of articles is what makes this my favorite website. I just spent the last half hour reading up on FIP WAR and RA WAR trying to figure out what they are and learning a bunch of new stuff in the process. And surprisingly, I kinda understood it all too…which is probably due to the fact that I read this blog, lol. Chad, Greg & Dustin are for sure my #1 source for baseball knowledge.
Seconded. Great year end wrap up as usual.
lol
A tad late.
Thanks, man.
Will try to make the Glossary so everybody can understand what I use.
Just a thought: if Seattle offered you Kyle Seager or Dustin Ackley or Nick Franklin straight up for Dee Gordon, would you take any of the 3 deals?
Yes, yes, and yes, but Seattle’s GM is not insanely stupid.
I wasn’t proposing these deals as if I thought they were realistic or not. It’s just for thought.
But while I say yes to all 3 as well, it’s not so cut and dry IMO that Jack Z would be “insanely stupid” to accept. Remember that Dee was a top 25 prospect just last year. I think we Dodger fans are undervaluing him because we saw his bad year this year (which was admittedly awful). However, other FO’s seem to be interested in him and I think his incredibly negative defensive value from WAR this year was an aberration. If he could “only” on-base .330, he becomes a very valuable asset.
But again, this is just for thought, not necessarily something I think is a fair deal for both sides.
Let’s get Felix for Dee. Go Dodgers!
Oh lord.
:o
I don’t think his defensive WAR is an aberration, actually. He’s always been this way. He makes the flashiest plays with great range and will throw balls away and boot routine grounders. He’s a more extreme version of Rafael Furcal, defensively. Upside is there, but right now? No. I said as much in my scouting reports of him prior to this year.
He just needs to continue refining, really. So the half season of time he missed didn’t help at all. Will he do it? Not sure, but I would bet against such vast improvement across the board.
Dee has a long, long way to go before he can become a major-league average defensive shortstop. Combine that with his hitting woes, and there’s a legitimate question on whether he will ever be good enough to help the team. He was one of the worst players in MLB last season, significantly worse overall than Uribe.
Right.
Uribe has always been solid defensively despite how he looks, he just can’t hit for shit anymore.
Dee couldn’t do either last year. :o
Yes. Yes. Probably.
I don’t love Seager, but he fills a need. I still believe in Ackley. Figure he’s a 2 WAR player regardless. Franklin’s 21 and hit well in AA before scuffling in AAA.
Fair enough. The Mariners need a SS because Franklin projects more to 2B, and we need a 2B after this year, so there could be a match. Do you think Dee and Reed would get it done or would someone like Joc also need to be thrown in?
I think Franklin is worth giving up a lot for. He seems to be a carbon copy of Jed Lowrie, which isn’t a bad thing. I’d love 6 years of a switch hitting somewhat injury-prone middle IFer that can mash. Best case scenario, you get an Asdrubal Cabrera type player that plays horrible defense and avg offense that somehow adds up to a wRC+ of 112 and 3 WAR.
And yes, I know that prospects flame out, but Franklin is worth it and the M’s are getting a fair return.
Mariners already have a SS who can’t hit, except he’s got the best glove in the league.
Oh, come on. Brendan Ryan isn’t their SS of the future. Not only would they rather have 5 cost-controlled years of a potential SS with game-changing speed, a strong arm, and a career minor league average of .302, but they have shown actual, reported interest in him. Like I said, he was a top 25 prospect just last year. Would you have sung the same tune this time last year? Did you want to trade Kemp after 2010?
Look, I’m not trying to argue that Dee Gordon is good at baseball. But what I am trying to argue is that he has tangible trade value.
Dee’s trade value would not bring us back another team’s A level or B+ level prospect. Dee himself will be 25 in April. The teams that are interested in him realize that he will most likely never be able to play a competent major league SS, so they want to try him at 2B or in CF. Combine this fact with the other fact that he can’t hit, and he probably would only bring back a C+/B- prospect at the very best. Franklin is three years younger than Dee. No way Seattle trades him to the Dodgers for Dee straight up.
I tend to agree with anonymous. Yes, Brendan Ryan is acceptable for now, but he’s clearly not what the Mariners want when they make a run at the playoffs in the future.
Not sure Dee Gordon would be their answer either, but Ryan wouldn’t exclude a trade for a SS.
I’m not so sure Gordon is their solution, but when you’re on a low budget running out Smoak and Montero and Ackley and their unproductivity thus far, there’s no reason the M’s wouldn’t try Gordon. Further, I think his skill set actually plays up in Safeco moreso than someone like a Smoak or Montero.
Now, I don’t see it as so unreasonable that Seattle wouldn’t do a Franklin for Gordon and Chris Reed type deal. John Sickels had Franklin rated as a B coming into the year, and he had rated Gordon a B+ and B his last 2 eligible years. Now, I’m not saying that their present value is the same, but it’s not that much of a stretch to get a deal done, especially considering Gordon projects as MORE of a SS.
No, I mean I don’t see why the Dodgers would do that deal.
That’s actually quite a bit to give up for Franklin considering he’s just a prospect as well.
I doubt the Dodgers go with a untested 2B in 2014 anyway. They’ll probably try to fill the hole via free agency or trade. The money gives them that luxury.
Guess what I’m saying is that the Dodgers are far far far more likely to use their prospects to trade for MLB players than to trade for other prospects at this stage in their financial situation.
Ha. I guess I’m just obsessed with coming up with trade scenarios, but I’d really like for the Dodgers to acquire a 2B of the future. The Nationals have been reported as being open to trading Danny Espinosa, but unfortunately LA doesn’t really match up, and Washington pretty much has 0 holes in their roster.
But could you tell me how realistic a Kinsler deal would be? What if we offered Ethier, Capuano, Guerra, and Joc Pederson? From the Rangers’ point of view, their middle infield depth eliminates positional scarcity from their needs. So it would come down to pure offensive production (because Ethier is likely a better defender than Kinsler converted OF), and I think Ethier wins this w/o the benefit of having hit in Texas before. Plus, the Rangers get a SP and a RP to replace Adams/Uehara.
Lastly, what do you think would be a fair offer for Mike Olt, using roughly the same trade pieces?
Rangers probably wouldn’t hate that considering Kinsler is over 30 and signed until he’s like 36 as well.
Though I think Capuano and Guerra find that they don’t like the Rangers so much.
Maybe if the Dodgers kicked in money and excluded Joc. :o
Honestly, I think if Olt were shopped, he has a higher trade value than Kinsler by quite a bit.
Not to the Dodgers, but to teams like the Rays and what not who need surplus value players to make their roster work? Yes. I mean, look at the return guys like Wil Myers and Travis d’Arnaud brought.
No way the Dodgers get Olt in a deal revolving around Ethier unless he’s free.
Yes there are rumors that Ms are looking at Dee, but what makes you think they will trade any of their valuable chips for the worst player in baseball not named Chone Figgins? They just cut Figgins. They are not going to spend a good prospect to get the same player back.
Considering the season he had (and his underwhelming BABIP-aided call-up last season) at the plate and on the field, I think it’s fair to say Dee’s value is extremely low regardless of what prospect rankings from two years ago said. After all, Dee’s being shopped by a team with one of the weakest SS situation in the league.
You make a fair point. But the Mariners know as well as you and I that prospects flame out. They’ve seen “sure things” like Smoak, Montero, Ackley, and even to a lesser degree Saunders and Trayvon struggle. With the exception of someone like a Longoria, most prospects lose some perceived value when they first hit the Majors because their production was not where it was in the minors. You would agree that every one of those 5 have less value than they did as prospects, right? Dee is not a guaranteed “bust”, he had one bad year. I agree with you that he could amount to nothing, but Nick Franklin has yet to even make his ML debut or have a completely healthy, productive year besides A ball, which was his first year. What if he struggles in his first year? Then he becomes a Dee Gordon with injury concerns. The fact of the matter is that Smoak, Montero, Ackley, Gordon, and countless others were better prospects than Franklin will ever be, and the Mariners have seen them all struggle, but I think they believe Gordon could still become a quality MLer or they wouldn’t be inquiring. And please don’t compare him to Figgins. Figgins is old, overpaid, and complains about his playing time and team. Dee is young, cheap, under control for 5 more years, and doesn’t complain.
Sorry for the long-winded post. I respect your opinion, but stop acting like a Franklin for Gordon and something lesser deal is so far-fetched.
Ackley has put up 6 WAR in 1000 PA since being called up. Montero had one bad year so far.
I think it’s only really fair to call Smoak a bust.
Same with Gordon, of course. He’s not a bust, yet.
Well, Figgins was being paid a good bit of money and was on the decline. Gordon, for all his struggles, is still an unknown to an extent.