Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
Shohei Otani, the fire-balling high school Japanese pitching phenom, has opted for a career in the MLB, according to the Associated Press.
Otani, a 6-foot-4 right-hander who has thrown a fastball between 99 and 100 mph, has been scouted by several major league teams including the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox.
The 18-year-old Otani said “I think I will start in the minor leagues but I want to challenge in the majors. It’s been my dream since entering high school.”
Otani was expected to go in the first round of Thursday’s amateur draft in Japan.
If he signs with a major league team, Otani would become the first potential top draft pick to make the direct jump from a Japanese high school to the U.S.
The AP has the Dodgers in a competition with the Red Sox.
I wrote about Otani in detail a couple weeks ago, and at that time, the Dodgers were described as “front-runners” for his services, according to the Japanese media. The significant issues back then primarily revolved around his willingness to do exactly what he just did, so now that he’s made his decision, his path to the Dodgers has gotten a lot clearer.
Any fan of the team has to hope he chooses the Dodgers, as it would be impossible to overpay him due to international budget restraints, and it’s not every day that one has the chance to add a high-90s high school arm to the system.
I still think there’s a chance the Dodgers offer “eleventy billion dollars” for him — the penalty for going over the limit is just an extra tax, isn’t it? I still expect them to stay under the cap for one signing, but I can easily see them offering more than $3 mil total for all their international signings this year.
There’s a tax and the team could be penalized in terms of signing international players next year.
Chad had a great breakdown of the situation last week. http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/10/dodgers-in-lead-for-services-of-phenom-shohei-otani-video-remaining-international-budget/
An accurate response AND pimping the site. So much win!
:o
If it was just a tax, I don’t think a lot of teams would care. However, I do think they would care about limiting the amount they can offer a single player for the next period.
Maybe they think he’s good enough to risk that, I don’t know, but in this capped environment, not being able to sign marquee international free agents would be a serious penalty. Would be like losing your first five draft picks in a year or something.
Since I have no clue how these things work, I was just curious…would a potential Otani signing eat up another 40 man roster spot like the Puig signing did? Not that it really matters if you’re getting what could be elite talent and there’s always the phantom DL, but I was just wondering where he would fit in.
Unless they sign him to a major league contract, I’d say no. And with what little money the Dodgers would have to offer him, I don’t think that’s a possibility.
Ah ok, I see…thanks Dustin!
10 years, $3 million sounds good to me.
:o
Nope.
I can’t see him signing an MLB deal.
So if money offered is similar, you’d think the Dodgers would have the advantage due to better history with Asian players than the Red Sox, right?
Doubt it would have anything to do with that.
The reason the Japanese media considers the Dodgers as the front-runners is because one of their Asian scouts has been following him for a while and building a relationship with the coach and parents.
Plus they have shown a pretty deep commitment by sending Logan White and others to visit and what not.
I mentioned this before when the new rules came out, but because international free agents are now capped, building relationships with players becomes more important than straight monetary amounts.