Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
Mike Petriello recently wrote an post, titled, “Finishing Strong Could Impact More Than Just Playoff Hunt“, and a lot of fans felt it hit the nail on the head. That is, the strong finish gives fans optimism for 2013.
Now I’m not writing here to criticize his post, but it did get me thinking about the odd shift in mindset that Dodger fans seem to be going through upon being confronted with the reality that this much-hyped team won’t even make the expanded playoffs. The narrative has clearly gone from “oh geez, I don’t know if they can win 60 games next year” to “they’re going to destroy next year, just you wait”.
While it’s absolutely correct to say that the hot finish gives Dodger fans reason for optimism, should it?
As a fan myself, I understand looking for things to latch onto, but why does the strong finish indicate anything? Besides irrational hope, why do the last 10 games matter anymore than the first 10 or the middle 10?
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To me, Adrian Gonzalez‘s season is the perfect representation of everything that’s going on with Dodger fans right now.
A-Gon finished 2012 with a 15-game hitting streak after struggling immensely following being acquired by the Dodgers. Fans are using that streak as evidence that he’s “settled” or that he’s “back”, and while he was the sole reason I could see The Trade working out, I still see him the same as before: a potentially elite player with multiple concerning trends.
Why? Because during the 15-game hit streak, his line was .390/.429/.542/.971 with a .467 BABIP. When he struggled initially after being acquired, on the other hand, his line was .227/.288/.348/.636 with a .264 BABIP. During the streak, A-Gon had four walks for a ~6 BB%, and 12 strikeouts for a ~19 K%. What were those peripherals over the entire season? His BB% was 6.1 and his K% was 16.1. So the primary difference between the cold, “he’s gonna suck forever, isn’t he” stage and the hot, “A-Gon for 2013 NL MVP” stage is basically a ton more singles falling in than before. At the end of his Dodger stint, all of that equals out to a .297/.344/.441/.785 line, and that’s with a .351 BABIP. I don’t know about you, but that’s not anything to flip out about for me.
Over the entirety of 2012, the larger sample size at stake here, he has put up a .299/.344/.463/.806 line, and that’s with the third-highest BABIP of his career (.344). Yet because of a 15-game sample that fit a narrative, fans are automatically giving him his status back as an elite player despite the fact that he’s coming off his worst hitting season … uh … ever.
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Now as far as the team goes, from August 25th to September 25th, the Dodgers went 11-17. People panicked. People burned their cars. People ran around screaming “ANARCHY!” in the streets. But then they ran off eight wins in the final nine games of the year, and now the Dodgers are apparently setup perfectly to win the World Series in 2013 or something. I just don’t get it.
If fans were willing to chalk up the early struggles after the trade to small sample size, then why wouldn’t the strong finish, over an even smaller sample, be vulnerable to the same thing? Oh right, because the latter occurrence fits the narrative that they just needed to “jell” or because the players are “finally playing up to their potential” or they’re just now “getting it”.
I don’t buy it though, as fans seem to be currently chock full of confirmation bias.
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As far as individuals are concerned, there’s nothing wrong with optimism. Anything that makes a form of entertainment entertaining makes sense and is understandable to me, but I do start to worry when expectations get out of control, because it inevitably sets people up for fire and brimstone rage when their out-of-control visions are met with reality (see: uh … the 2012 Dodgers season ten days ago).
The point here isn’t to blunt excitement or to say that the team will be bad in 2013 (I expect them to make the playoffs), it’s more about imploring people to question why the extreme peaks and valleys of the 2012 season even happened, and whether or not they should have ever existed to begin with.
It’s quite similar to the presidential debate last night. What you’re writing about is seeking to break through the narrative that we all build into our minds.
To be honest, moves or not, the dodgers did about as well as I expected them to do this year. They vastly overachieved in the early parts of the season and naturally had to regress back to the mean.
The moment the team announced that Matt Kemp was having surgery tomorrow, anything related to the strong finish went out the window. We all now have to wait with bated breath and pray to whatever gods we pray to that it is successful and he recovers because otherwise who gives a damn.
Also, this whole Kemp fiasco points once again to the need for players to be at all times open to the medical staff who can’t be steamrolled by guys who want to “tough it out”.
He should be ready by the start of the season, regardless of what they find. Just have to wait and see how it affects him.
I read and commented on this immediately after reading Jon Weisman’s post (http://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/blogentry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10446110) and the mention of Shawn Green really freaked me out. Hence the very down prognosis on Kemp.
Keeping the fingers crossed but knowing the Dodgers’ luck….
They cleaned up and repaired Matt Kemp’s shoulder though, so it’s not the same as Shawn Green.
The question is how long it’ll take to regain his power.
As I say, keeping those fingers crossed.
I actually posted on MSTI before Mike’s article came out that I hoped the dodgers would be able to string together some wins prior to the end of the season just because I did not want to have to sit through an offseason wondering if the Dodgers were gonna be stuck with an atrocious offense and no money to spend to upgrade it. Granted, like you said, it’s such a small sample size, but the games lost since the trades weren’t much of a sample size either. So my hopes for the win streak were mostly just so I wouldn’t feel 100% negativity towards the team through the entire offseason.
Hopefully Kemp can get and stay healthy next season. That alone will be enough optimism to think they’d be good enough to make the playoffs in my opinion. He changes the the offense dramatically when he’s swinging the bat right. I definitely think we can feel a little optimism now for 2013…but no way do I think the Dodgers are a lock to win anything. Not sure how anyone thinks that off a little win streak. Especially with Billingsley most likely out and Kershaw showing that he’s not impervious to injury. Kemp as well.
What worries me now is Ned Colletti and his ability to surround the core with the proper complimentary pieces, especially if they’re gonna bring in a number 2 behind Kershaw. Dude has already wasted so much money on poor signings in the past…I’m sure he can’t wait to do it some more. I just hope the Dodgers can keep Logan happy so he can continue to carry Colletti throughout his contract and beyond. Without him this team may be really sunk.
#1 obstacle to sustained Dodgers success = Ned Colletti.
Maybe, but even he can win with a payroll this size.
I daresay you’d probably not put cash behind that.
Though I guess we would need better definition of “win”
Make the playoffs with regularity.
Winning the World Series is always a bit of a crapshoot.
Of course, making the playoffs with a $200 million or more payroll should be less of an accomplishment and more of an expectation, but still, the fact remains that the team should make the postseason next year.
Well, ya, if we’re talking about getting into the playoffs, I would probably agree with you that the odds of that happening is fairly high for the simple fact, as you stated, “making the playoffs with a $200 million or more payroll should be less of an accomplishment and more of an expectation”.
I think there’s ample reason to be optimistic for the immediate future, especially if they go out and get somebody to start behind Clayton Kershaw.
My point is that the expectations should be the same, regardless of a 5 or 10 or 15 game stretch at whatever point in the season.
It’s all noise at that sample size.