Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
The Dodgers are “front-runners” for the services of Japanese high school phenom Shohei Otani, according to the Japanese media. Meanwhile, stateside, Alex Speier of WEEI and Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News both confirm the Dodgers interest in the 18-year-old, who stands 6’4″ at 190 pounds.
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Logan White and the Dodgers scouting department has been cultivating a relationship with Otani and his coach for a while now, and it appears to be paying dividends.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will be/were the first to meet with Otani today. They had actually scheduled an appointment to drop by Hanamaki Higashi before they knew that he was going to file his letter of intent. Logan White (Assistant GM, Amateur and International Scouting), Acey Kohrogi (Executive Director, Asian Operations and Scouting), and Keiichi Kojima (scout) are expected to attend the meeting. The Red Sox are also said to be interested.
Dodgers could be front runners for Otani: scout Kojima has been keeping track of Otani since he was a first year high school student and assistant GM White was in Japan in March to watch him pitch in a practice game. Otani will not attend the meeting. Hanamaki Higashi manager Hiroshi Sasaki will represent him. At least five MLB teams, including the Rangers and Red Sox are said to be interested.
So why all the commotion over him? Well, he touches 100 mph with his heater and has an assortment of off-speed pitches that he flashes in the videos at the bottom of this post. Additionally, this would mark the first time that a Japanese high schooler comes to America without first going through the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), so it’s potentially a trailblazing moment as well.
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As you could probably guess, due to him not currently being owned by a Japanese team, there will be no posting fee involved here, but he will be subject to international signing rules. Until June 15, 2013, all teams have $2.9 million to spend (July 2, 2012 was the start date of the period, hence Yasiel Puig) on the international market, and while they can spend more, the penalties are severe.
The rules for the spending pools are somewhat similar to the Draft spending pools in terms of the penalties that come with going over the limit. Going over by up to five percent will result in a 75-percent tax on the overage. Landing in the 5-to-10-percent range will bring a 100-percent tax and the loss of the right to give more than one player in the next signing period a bonus of more than $500,000. Going over by 10-to-15 percent will lead to a 100-percent tax and the inability to sign any player for more than $500,000 in the next signing period. Any team going over a 15-percent threshold will get hit with a 100-percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to exceed $250,000 for any one player in the next signing period.
“But the Dodgers don’t care about money, so just offer him eleventy billion dollars!”
They may not care about money, but they probably do care about not being able to spend more than $500k or $250k on a prospect during the next signing period, as it would mean not being able to secure elite talent. So in that sense, the rules become restrictive regardless of financial wealth, which is what was intended.
So with that established, how much do the Dodgers have to spend?
If you recall, the Dodgers previously inked five international prospects for around $1.1-1.3 million. They later signed Julio Urias, but only around 25% of his fee will count against the cap.
So just guesstimating here, if the Dodgers are willing to go into the first tier of penalties, they should have around $1.5-1.6 million to play with. That’s likely adequate compensation to get a deal done if Otani wants to sign with the Dodgers.
And that’s a big “if”.
It’s unlikely that the primary obstacle here will end up being money. Otani’s decision will likely revolve around his willingness to leave home for a foreign land as a teenager, his ability to deal with becoming a trailblazer and breaking tradition, and perhaps most importantly, the ramifications his decision will have on the relationship between him and the NPB, the MLB and the NPB, and the Dodgers and the NPB.
Unlike Korea and Taiwan, who inexplicably (IMO) let MLB teams pilfer their amateur talent, the NPB still has a handshake agreement in place with the MLB regarding their amateur players. And while I don’t have an inside track on how this all shakes out, given Otani’s immense talent, if he decides he wants to sign overseas, the strength of that agreement will be put to the test.
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Shohei Otani Touching 100 MPH
Shohei Otani Game Footage
As much as I love me some Taiwanese baseball, the local product just doesn’t even begin to compare. Japan has a robust baseball culture (and more importantly league). In Taiwan, “professional” baseball is somewhat of a misnomer.
What does that have to do with the article?
It doesn’t, it was in response to this line from you: “Unlike Korea and Taiwan, who inexplicably (IMO) let MLB teams pilfer their amateur talent, the NPB still has a handshake agreement in place with the MLB regarding their amateur players.”
Not saying their leagues are of equal quality, but letting MLB teams steal their amateur talent doesn’t help the quality of the leagues.
Didn’t accuse you of saying that. Just teasing out part of the reason why NPB is able to have this handshake agreement with the MLB while talent is simply poached from Taiwan.
You absolutely have a great point but Taiwan’s baseball “powers” such as they are, have no real leverage against MLB to prevent the poaching of talent.
What leverage does the NPB have though? Realistically.
Just respect, really.
The monetary amounts are still completely different.
Ya, I’m not sure.
MLB has working contracts with NPB, KBO and CPBL… NPB has more leverage because their league has talent that is A) major league ready, not just talented or toolsy players but players that can come in and help teams win immediately, such as Yu Darvish and Ichiro and B) mass marketed players meaning they bring a lot of advertising value, viewership and auxiliary value besides just being a great player… for those reasons NPB had enough leverage to negotiate clauses protecting their amateur players
So basically they use the fact that they’re a major player in the baseball world and the threat would be that if the MLB doesn’t play ball with them then they won’t allow any of their players to head overseas? Is that the gist of it?
Guess I’m just unclear as to why Korea and Taiwan HAD to cede to the MLB. Like what would be the downside for them as far as not cooperating with the MLB?
Exactly @ first Q.
And the answer to the second question is indirectly answered by the first. Taiwan and SK ceded control to MLB because they don’t have the leverage that Japan did. The local major leagues are not as established as Japan’s.
They could always just institute a flat-out ban.
I don’t see how he signs with the Dodgers. It would not be for the money, he would be leaving his homeland and upsetting NPB. But here is to hoping!
I don’t recall a high school talent like this ever coming out of Japan before either though.
This whole thing has left me very confused. I thought Kasten said that the Dodgers have spent all their international allotment money. And all of this is moot if Otani is drafted by any of the NPB teams right?
When did he say that?
It could be moot if he’s drafted. Depends on what he wants to do.
From some radio interview? I may have conflated him saying the Dodgers will spend their allotment to having already done so.
Your second sentence contributes to my confusion! If he is drafted, isn’t that it? Or do you mean, he could defy the NPB and still just sign with a MLB team even after being drafted?
Could get messy, but I think there are options.
He’ll be drafted, I’m pretty sure he would still have the same decision though. Either he is going to take the money offered by the highest drafting NPB team or take the money of the highest bidding MLB team. In my opinion it is going to be a pretty obvious choice to go with the NPB team, MLB teams can only offer 2.9 million and can’t offer long term deals… so that would be 2.9 million for possibly 4 years in the minors and then he would be added to the MLB 40 to be protected from the rule 5 draft and be under team control for 3 more option years before he would have to be added to the 25 man and make 500k a year… so that would be 2.9 million over potentially 7 years in the minors and 2 seasons at 500k before hitting arbitration… 3.9 million over 9 years is going to be pretty easy for an NPB team to beat in my opinion
Good point about the financials, but NPB players are under team control for a decade, so how much incentive would there be for an NPB team to just give him all that money?
it was sawamura last year and junichi tazawa was the trail blazer for leaving Japan for MLB’s minor leagues… NPB has a rule stating that any player that does that will serve a 3 year suspension upon returning to NPB ( which is a silly rule if you ask me since any player that is good enough to garner that kind of attention should be welcomed back with open arms and added to a roster… but I don’t make the rules )
Hirokazu Sawamura? I don’t recall him having an arm like this. Junichi Tazawa neither.
Yeah, I agree about that stupid NPB ban. Chances are that anybody who jumps ship won’t be coming back within three years anyway.
Man, this would be an incredible get. Really hope it happens, but definitely not holding my breath.
Can a MLB not sign him and let him play in NPB for a few years on loan, like we saw with Rubio in the NBA or countless international soccer players?
Don’t believe that’s allowed, no.
Chad is right that this is not allowed by MLB rule… but even it was a team would not want to do that since the development philosophies and processes in NPB are so drastically different from MLB’s especially with pitchers. You would want him in your system as soon as possible
Agreed.