Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
So with the Dodgers basically looking at everybody, and with the Carlos Lee trade falling through, the team has now revealed five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners.
Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota.
The players believed in their sights include Brewers sluggers Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart; Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster; Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer; and Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. At the top of the club’s wish list are a productive corner infielder and a starting pitcher.
I thought the five players were intriguing options, so I decided to take a detailed look at all of them.
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Aramis Ramirez – 3B – Brewers
Dodgers third basemen on the year have combined to go .245/.319/.340/.659, and that’s being kind because utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. has a .326/.380/.500/.880 line in 50 plate appearances there. Hairston operates best as a super utility guy though, so Ramirez would essentially be a Juan Uribe (.200/.259/.280/.539)/Adam Kennedy (.228/.319/.289/.608)replacement.
Ramirez has hit .263/.341/.471/.812 so far in 2012 and he projects to improve on that a bit at .274/.341/.484/.824. Uribe and Kennedy are about average defensively, while Ramirez is well below average, bordering on poor. There’s a five to ten run gap on defense that Ramirez will have to make up, and that he does. For the rest of 2012, Ramirez projects to be about 20-25 runs better offensively than the combination of men he’s replacing. If you buy into his splits, which for his career have him ~60 OPS points higher in the second half, the disparity could be even more significant. Also, despite being 34, his peripherals show little sign of decline.
Of course, there’s the problem of the contract that the team would be taking on. Making $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014 with a 2015 mutual option/$4 million buyout, the Dodgers would hypothetically be on the hook for about $32 million for 2.5 years of service.
A bit painful but perhaps not overly terrible for a 3-4 WAR player, even one due to regress because of age. Ramirez would basically have to be worth around 7 or 8 WAR to make it work, and he figures to be in the neighborhood of that figure. Furthermore, he plays third, and unlike the corner outfield positions, third basemen are a much rarer asset. This is particularly true for the Dodgers, who have a complete dearth of internal options. Now factor in that the free agent market might come down to Maicier Izturis, and Ramirez isn’t such a terrible shot to take.
For the Brewers part, the Dodgers will probably have to wait until the last minute. Milwaukee sits a mere seven games back of first right now, which may seem like a lot, but with two wild card spots this year and the Cardinals late charge in 2011 fresh in everybody’s memory, they’ll probably be taking this decision down to the wire. One winning streak and they may not end up selling off at all.
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Corey Hart – RF – Brewers
Dodgers left fielders have hit .242/.300/.333/.632 on the year, which is amazingly bad. Hart would be a boon for the team, as he’s currently at .251/.313/.505/.818 and projects to hit .264/.327/.484/.811 the rest of the way. An average fielder, he would improve that area of the outfield as well, as they are basically stuck with Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu as their primary options.
Hart is signed through 2013 and makes $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. His contract is more than reasonable for a 3-4 WAR player, and he’s a potential addition who could make upwards of a 25-35 run difference over the rest of the year (that’s being conservative, really).
Like Ramirez though, he may never become available, as the Brewers may never end up selling.
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Ryan Dempster – RHP – Cubs
I already addressed his potential addition here, but his acquisition makes even more sense now with Ted Lilly being transferred to the 60-day DL, health unknown, as Dempster would be a huge improvement over Nate Eovaldi.
The Cubs are 14 games back and are shopping everybody, so he’ll be on the market.
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Cole Hamels – LHP – Phillies
I like Hamels for the same reason I like Dempster, except he’s even better than Dempster and has a longer track record of excellence without the immediate injury history. He’s a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher and a solid #1/#2 to slot behind Clayton Kershaw if the Dodgers can make the playoffs.
A 2.79 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.02 xFIP/3.03 SIERA in 2011 and a 3.08 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.24 xFIP/3.25 SIERA in 2012 basically says it all.
Hamels makes $15 million in 2012 and is slated to be a free agent, one that will probably be pursued by the Dodgers either way. The Phillies are 12 games back and should be sellers.
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Michael Cuddyer – RF – Rockies
Like Hart, he would be replacing a terrible concoction of outfielders that the Dodgers have trotted out in left field. Like Hart, he’s a solid hitter. Putting up a .284/.346/.459/.805 line in 2011, he has dropped a bit to .260/.313/.480/.793 in 2012, but projects to finish at a .281/.338/.485/.823 clip. Unlike Hart, he’s a rather poor defender, and I do have concerns that Coors Field is playing insane again, yet he’s still down a bit. That concern is especially true because he’s 33.
As far as his contract goes, he makes $10.5 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with performance bonuses that could up it by $1.5 million in 2014. A reasonable deal for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, but I think Hart is both the better overall player and the one with less risk.
The Rockies are 14 games back at the moment and surely would be willing to sell, even if it’s within the division.
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Overall, all of the rumored players mentioned represent significant improvements to the team. Unlike Carlos Lee, they are likely to be difference makers for the Dodgers, thus making it understandable that they surrender assets for them. Whether the trades are workable or worth it obviously still depends on what the Dodgers give up and the finances involved, but if these are the types of players the team is pursuing, they definitely seem headed down the right road.
I see that these are all potentially positive moves for the Dodgers but you’re talking about them in kind fo a vacuum. It’s true that fans usually have a more irrational view on their prospects but what would be the cost to the dodgers prospectwise were any of these moves to go through? Because it’s not like the farm system is just gushing with potential prospects all blocking each others’ path.
Probably multiple guys in the top 10.
I think Hart and Aramis would require Lee, probably Hamels too. I don’t expect Dempster to go for that much.
Cuddyer I only like under the assumption that they will pay his contract and not demand much. Salary relief for a rebuilding team, basically.
The one statement I’d disagree with would be calling Adam Kennedy an average third baseman. He is AWFUL at 3B. He doesn’t have the reflexes to field any ball that’s hit hard, and his lateral range isn’t very good. The only type of non-routine play he can make is on the slow rollers where he has to charge, the same play that a second baseman has to make a lot. We used to criticize Miles playing 3B, but he was better than Kennedy at that position.
I mean the combination of Uribe and Kennedy is average.
ooooooooooooo, that’s different…never mind :)
I would assume the Dodgers are scouting Victorino as well.
He is a FA to be, doesn’t make a huge salary, and is only 31. His numbers are down a bit, but he’s a career .276 hitter with a .342 OBP, makes contact, and runs well. He could hit leadoff with or without Gordon in the lineup.
I also wonder if Hunter Pence is available (probably not). He is arb. eleigble next yeat and will get a bump up from his $10.4M contract, but he has a .288/.354/ .494 line this year – right at his career average.
Probably, but I haven’t heard a thing about the Dodgers being interested in him.
Every mention of Victorino that I have seen linked to the Dodgers has just been the writers assumptions that they may have an interest.
Great post but I feel like screaming when I hear everyone tout Dempster as a target and a good option. PLEASE respond to this comment and tell me why its a good idea to get an injury prone old pitcher who is just coming off an injury, and whose heart is with Chicago. He’s notorious for giving the Cubs a hometown discount and loving the area and is super active in the community and has his family planted there. We need players that WANT to be in LA.
So with his age and injury risks being super high, combined with his love of Chicago essentially equating to a somewhat if not totally poor emotional connection with LA should he go there, I just don’t feel he’s a great option.
But I seem to be alone in this thought, and lots of very well respected folks like yourself see differently. I just want to know what I am missing here.
But do we even want Dempster to stick around after he helps us hold off AZ and SFG this season? Rubby and Eovaldi should be in the mix in 2013, and we might be able to ship out any combination of Bills/Lilly/Cap/Harang to free up room for a Greinke or Hamels.
Exactly. As long as it’s salary relief for the Cubs and a middling prospect or two, I don’t care much.
If you follow the link, I spell out why I think he’s a viable option. Or any pitcher that could be a #2, really.
The primary reason is that he’s a good pitcher, and if he can show he’s healthy, he instantly becomes the second best pitcher on the staff. He would make a mediocre playoff rotation suddenly solid. Also, I don’t think he would cost nearly as much as Hamels.
Chad,
OT – but there is a rumor going around that Kasten desperately wants to sign Uncle Ned to a long term K – as he (Colletti ) is in the last year of his contract…
Please confirm…
And if this is so – we need to organize a mass campaign against…
Knock on doors, petitions, letters, food drives I don’t give a f _ _ _. Surely there is someone in Dodgerland sees this impending doom for what it is….
I’ve read that as well, but there’s nothing we can do.