Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
According to George Ofman of WBBM in Chicago, the Dodgers have an offer on the table for the Cubs‘ Ryan Dempster that involves two pitching prospects.
Cubs have at least 2 deals on table for Dempster. One from Tigers including young lefty and from Dodgers for two pitching prospects.
— George ofman (@georgeofman) July 14, 2012
I’ve already explored the potential deal for Dempster and explained why I don’t mind the idea, but the price is a separate issue altogether.
By itself, two pitching prospects doesn’t mean much, as it all depends on the names. So who might the involved prospects be?
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Despite Ned Colletti being Ned Colletti, I would believe that Zach Lee (Age 20|Level A+/AA|3.45 SIERA) and Nate Eovaldi (22|MLB|5.01) would be off the table for a #2/#3 starter rental. Also, Allen Webster (22|AA|3.81) would be an odd inclusion to me, as would Chris Reed (22|A+/AA|3.42) because I feel the organization thinks highly of him.
All of that leaves Garrett Gould (20|A+|3.77) as a potential centerpiece prospect that sticks out once again, as the team was willing to part with him in a Carlos Lee trade. I would think the surging Ethan Martin (23|AA|4.19) could also be a potential centerpiece of a trade, as a friend of mine says he’s touching high-90s again. As for the secondary prospect, Chris Withrow (23|AA|3.96), Aaron Miller (24|AA|4.39), Angel Sanchez (22|A+|4.11), Matt Magill (22|AA|3.66), and Ryan O’Sullivan (21|A/A+|4.50) would be the possibilities. So mix-and-match one from each pool and there you have the potential deal in place.
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Would the deal be worth it? Probably.
While both Gould and Martin are likely top ten prospects in the system at this point, and all the secondary prospects have potential value, the Dodgers have a ton of arms in the system. None of the mentioned names strike me as sure thing MLB contributors, and given the bust rate of prospects, I think a deal of this nature is an acceptable risk to take for a rental.
It would be difficult to complain if the team made a deal like the one I proposed above for what represents a clear upgrade in the rotation and a pitcher that slots in nicely behind Clayton Kershaw. However, if the deal includes Lee, Eovaldi, Webster, or Reed, it could come back to haunt the team sooner than later.
:( but Martin has finally started to lower his walks!
He will walk six per nine next year and be back down to #20 in the rankings, watch.
A very real possibility, IMO.
He has upside, but I can’t believe in it yet. I mean, it’s not even a yearly change in walk rate, it just comes and goes in spurts now.
So the guy you quoted says Gould and Withrow on his Twitter.
Gotta agree that I would have no problem with it. Neither of them strike me as anything above B- prospects.
The way Withrow is going, it’s almost like just Gould.
Was basically my thought process. Don’t mind losing Withrow because the Dodgers have a lot of power arms who might project better in the pen like him.
I think Gould is a B prospect, but he’s behind four or five guys and I can cope with that for a significant upgrade to the team.
Don’t want to trade him anymore.
Apparently Dempster is a ninja. Can’t go wrong with ninjas.
http://www.aolnews.com/2007/03/22/ryan-dempster-is-a-ninja/
I’ll be using this if the Dodgers trade for him. :o
Fuuuuuuuuuck. I have complete confidence in colletti overpaying with prospects for another “vet”.
However, on evolving, isn’t de la rosa a better prospect overall who’s due back in sept?
I like De La Rosa better, yes. But will he be the same guy as before? I dunno.
How many guys have had velocity dips after TJ in recent years?
It’s just the time and the control in this era.
True.
I can’t think of any recently who have just completely lost it after TJ.
Shoulder is the killer.
Uh, that’s eovaldi
I hope that was auto-correct, because if not …
Sorry Dodger dreamers, no way this gets the deal done. Gould has some serious upside, but has done nothing to live up to the hype thus far, and is way down in the minors. Withrow, same story. These are two fading stars in the LAD org that the team is trying to dump. I realize Dempster is a rental, but he is also a game changer for a team. At least two true B prospects will get it done…no less. These guys might have been gems at one time, but both have seen their stock plummet and can be regarded currently as B- or C+ prospects at best. Dodgers will have to do better, especially with other teams competing hard for him.
?
Withrow is the fading former first round pick. Likely a reliever, maybe back-end if he excels in that role.
Gould is 20 with 3.95 FIP/3.83 SIERA in the California League. He’s basically pitching like last year in a tougher environment. Nothing about his stock is fading, it’s just not going up. He’ll likely be 21 at AA next year, which is hardly problematic.
If the Cubs can get two B prospects for two months of Dempster, then more power to them. Just to clarify though, four Dodgers prospects were given B grades or higher by John Sickels before 2012: Zach Lee, Nate Eovaldi, Allen Webster, Garrett Gould. Maybe you would now replace Webster and Gould with Chris Reed and Joc Pederson, but either way, there’s no chance the Dodgers should give up that type of haul for a rental of Dempster’s caliber.
And perhaps the Dodgers won’t. But some team might. If it were only the Dodgers in the mix, I might be inclined to say Gould and Withrow were fair value. But Other teams (perhaps as many as 9) are still in the mix, meaning that whoever gets him will likely overpay. Like I said, Gould has an upside, but little beyond that at this point. If Gould were the lesser of the two prospects in the deal, I would say the LAD had a chance, but not him paired with Withrow, unless there is a third player also involved. I just don’t see Theo taking this deal. The Dodgers system also isn’t as strong as it has been, meaning the LAD may not have the depth to trade away better prospects that a team like, say Atlanta might. Just saying. If you end up being right (or the rumor is), I will eat crow. But I see more needing to come the Cubs’ way for Theo to pull the trigger…rental or no.
I understand, I’m just saying that B prospects are quality assets and not all that common. Not sure how many teams would be willing to give up a pair of them for a rental that’s not a #1.
Quite frankly, if that’s the price, I’d rather the Dodgers not even bother.