Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
On Sunday, the Dodgers reportedly pulled out of a deal that would see Carlos Lee in a Dodger uniform and prospect Garrett Gould shipped off to the Astros.
The Dodgers, who entered Sunday with a seven-game losing streak, have pulled out of talks for the Astros’ Carlos Lee, according to baseball sources.
Rumors of a deal for Lee began Friday night and on Saturday it was announced that a trade was in place for pitching prospect Garrett Gould.
However, Lee spent the weekend mulling whether he would accept the trade or not and he had not made a decision by Sunday.
“If they don’t want to be here, then I don’t want them” Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said on Saturday.
As I said at the time, I didn’t get why the Dodgers were interested in that deal anyway, as it made no sense to me.
No loss there, in my opinion.
—–
So what now? Well, how about Derrek Lee?
“OH MY GOD, YOU GODDAMN IDIOT, YOU JUST SAID NO TO CARLOS LEE AND NOW YOU WANT DERREK LEE, LOLOL, WHAT A DUMMY!”
Right?
Not exactly. It’s not that I think he’s the savior, but if the Dodgers want to take a flier on an old first baseman, I don’t see why Derrek Lee isn’t a better option than Carlos Lee for a few reasons.
1) He only costs money.
There’s no asset to give away for Derrek, as he’s a free agent. Whatever you think of Gould, he’s obviously a usable asset, which I don’t think should’ve been on the table for what amounted to basically a lateral move and a prayer.
2) He might be better with the bat than Carlos.
Derrek hit .267/.325/.446/.771 last season and projection systems ranged from .756 to .826 for 2012. Carlos hit .275/.342/.446/.788 last season and projection systems ranged from .739 to .788 for 2012.
The upside with Derrek seems to be higher because of a presumed bounce back in walk rate and the fact that his power hasn’t completely left him yet, despite his diminishing ability to square up the ball consistently.
3) He’s a better defender than Carlos.
While similarly old, Derrek has always been athletic and a solid defender. Therefore, unlike Carlos, he shouldn’t be much of a drop-off in that area from James Loney.
—–
While neither are likely to carry a team for half a season, there are legitimate reasons that Derrek Lee is more likely to contribute than Carlos Lee. Most importantly though, the cost of acquiring the former is just money.
If you want re-tread 1B then pick up the one that isn’t a fat tub…….makes sense to me. + no prospects given up
Derek Lee was the answer like five years ago. But with James Loney doing his best impression of a black hole these days, maybe DodgersKingsoftheGalaxy (damn, say that three times fast) and you are onto something here.
Derrek Lee probably will suck, but at least if he does, all you lose is money.
I thought a couple of years ago when it was apparent that Loney was not the answer, the Dodgers should have picked up Lee as Plan B to back him up. If he did good, then fine…otherwise Lee steps in and takes over. It would kind of suck to have a guy who plays 1B only on the bench but it’s not unheard of, especially if the guy can hit. Not that Lee has shown a lot of consistency in that department lately, but he had almost a .400 OBP in 2009. Injuries have derailed him pretty much ever since.
He couldn’t have had much of a price tag…this season especially. I get Loney’s Defense has value, especially with an error prone rookie at SS, but unlike Carlos I agree that Derrek wouldn’t be as much of a drop off in defense and his potential upside on offense is much greater than Loney who has never really hit much for power and no longer seems to be able to hit for average either.
In no way do I think he’s an answer at 1B, but why the Dodgers never tried to take a chance on a guy like this who should be cheap with potential upside, rather than put all of their eggs into the James Loney basket, I’ve never understood. I guess this season they kinda tried to change that up by re-signing Rivera, but that’s a whole ‘nother issue.
They either had to replace him or roll with him, it’s that kind of deal.
Loney has little to no value otherwise. A first base only defensive replacement is ridiculous.
Could the Dodgers not have paid Derrek Lee as a bench bat to start this season while they checked to see if Loney’s 2nd half 2011 surge was sustainable? Then, if Loney falters, they just DFA him and let Lee step in, otherwise they keep Loney and figure out what to do with Lee if he’s not working off the bench. Do teams not like to tinker like that?
Managing clubhouse and personalities is not that easy, I think.
I believe in statistics, but I’m not naive enough to suggest you can just basically sign a guy’s replacement and have everything run smoothly.
:o
Yeah, for sure. I guess I’m just finally fed up with Loney. If the Dodgers picked up a couple of decent bats for 3B and LF I’d be happy with them letting Loney and his defense play at 1B, while batting lower in the order. I’m just tired of watching him with strange ABs in almost every game I’ve watched, failing to do almost anything at the plate with runners in scoring position and seemingly always with less than 2 outs. The guy confuses the hell out of me with the shit he swings at sometimes.
Lee turned down several offers including arbitration offer by the Pirates last offseason. If he agrees to play for us, and that’s a big if, he is not likely to be cheap.
They said he’s willing to play for the Dodgers and I think having no contract offers for half a year probably lowered his asking price if he ever wants back in baseball again.
very true.