Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
If you hadn’t noticed already, all of us contributors over at True Blue LA recently gave our predictions for the 2012 season.
As you can see, I have the Dodgers at 81-81, finishing 3rd in the division, and missing the playoffs.
I explained why in a few paragraphs.
Chad Moriyama
While a new era in Dodgers history has begun, the current roster is still stuck in the previous era, arguably surrounding the prime talent with even worse veterans than last year. Any hopes of making a run at either the division or the playoffs revolves around the team making a gigantic splash in trades or career years from 3-4 players.
Given that a compilation of projection systems has the Dodgers going 77-85, finishing fourth, and PECOTA has the Dodgers going 78-84, finishing fifth, I don’t think my view is out of line. I believe the Dodgers are better than their projections though, with Andre Ethier having a better year to make up for Matt Kemp’s inevitable regression, a strong bullpen with depth (unnecessarily deep), and Nathan Eovaldi and Rubby De La Rosa (down the stretch) to help out with the rotation.
While I suppose there’s always hope in what is still a weak division, the future seasons are where the light at the end of the tunnel lies.
When I submitted my prediction, I actually thought I was being a bit generous with the .500 mark, as I put them there despite the fact that every projection system has the Dodgers going down like the Hindenburg.
To my surprise though, the overwhelming consensus among the contributors was that the team would finish in the mid-80s to high-80s in the win column, with half of them predicting the playoffs and nobody predicting a finish lower than 2nd.
Exploring further, the sentiment among the commenters was that of agreement with the contributors, and more than a few even went as far as predicting over 90 wins. Now to be fair, two statistically minded commenters did provide a bit of realism. Andrew Grant, who formerly ran True Blue LA, had the Dodgers at 79-83, while Xeifrank of Dodger Sims put the team at 80-82. As for most everybody else, I’ll just say that comments don’t generally bother me when I read them on mainstream sites or message boards, but I consider the True Blue LA crowd to be generally intelligent, so if they are solidly optimistic about 2012, then I can’t imagine how high the casual fan must be (*snicker*).
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Don’t get me wrong, it’s perfectly fine to have optimistic predictions because you want things to end up a certain way. However, it concerns me that the expectations seem to clash harshly with the reality of the odds, as the mixture seems to point directly to a huge letdown this year.
While I hope the Dodgers win it all in 2012, I expect to see something that resembles a .500 team, and I hope you do too.
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Thoughts?
I can’t argue with your prediction. I don’t see his team as constructed even sniffing the Division title and getting or snagging one of the Wild Card spots. Arizona looks ready to continue to hang around, the Giants rotation still is one the best in all baseball. It is not even better then the last years Opening Day roster. The Starting pitching staff has huge questions after Kershaw, Huge. (#2 Billingsly looks horrible) I worry about the Second base position, its filled with scraps who are not Major League everyday guys. Third Base. Uribe. Even if Kemp has a monster year again, and if Ethier does boune back; there’s still major holes beyond the middle of the lineup. Something drastic has to happen at the trade deadline, but I worry even with Ned still pulling the trigger even with a new ownership group. Cant arguelet with 3rda place. Save us Stan.
That’s what I was surprised about.
It’s like people are banking on Kemp and Kershaw maintaining their career bests and then also expecting everybody else to step up.
I can’t honestly see this roster being significantly better, as it’s arguably worse.
DODGERS WINNING IT ALL FOR THE NEXT DECADE!!!!!!1!111!!!!1
But seriously, when I saw the original prediction thread over at TBLA, I was a bit surprised by your rating, though in hindsight I think it was really as relative to the other writers. Like you said I generally think they’re smarter than the average bear and to see you as an outlier was a bit of a surprise. And I think you’re right, it’s not like Magic Johnson is going to suit up and go out and toss a couple perfect games or something. The product on the field is still the same as it was under the previous ownership.
Also, did you see the tweet yesterday that Stan Kasten is thinking about bringing on another baseball guy, namely Tony La Russa? Fawk, shoot me now.
Was going to write about it, but it’s just speculation from one writer.
If it picks up steam, I’ll address it.
Prior to this season, my focus has been on 2013. However, thanks to Colletti’s genius choice to hand out 2 year deals like they’re goin outta style, I wondered if 2014 wasn’t a more realistic target for a winning product. I still think it can be as early as 2013, but 2012 is already shot. There’s always the cliched “that’s why they play the games” which could come into effect, but it’s highly unlikely that this team will gel so well that they pull off even a wild card spot. My only hopes for 2012 are to fire Ned (top of this list), pray Vinny continues to enjoy broadcasting, everyone stays healthy, hope Kemp & Kershaw can sustain their quality seasons to some degree and see who shakes out to be valuable for the future. Beyond that, I think 2012 will be a case of going through the motions…unfortunately.
I just think 2013 is a possibility because the team does have pieces to build around, and there are quality free agents available that can have a gigantic impact.
Combine that with a winnable division, and you have a recipe for playoff possibilities.
I do agree that a true roster overhaul will likely come in 2014 though.
I project the Dodgers to finish 4th in the NL West and 11th in the NL. Even though the offense could improve at every slot other than CF, I don’t like the pitching or defense enough.
I think a lot of people are assuming Dee Gordon’s huge spring means he’s gonna be a superstar.
It’s hard to make a prediction without knowing what the front office will be like. If Ned is gone before the trading deadline, I think the team can finish a few games above .500 like they did last year when Ned’s vets went down with injuries or got cut and were replaced by superior farmhands. If a new GM comes in and trades away Ned’s flotsam and jetsam, I think the same thing can happen this year and the team can win 82-84 games. But if Ned stays and we keep playing our crappy vets despite their inevitable ineffectiveness, I see the team only winning 75-78 games. I can’t see Kershaw and Kemp quite duplicating their 2011 seasons, but I think Gordon, Ethier and Loney will help make up for that. I do see Guerra and MacDougal massively regressing, Elbert regressing a little, Kenley will still be awesome, but the rest of the bullpen will be predictably lousy. Billingsley will be up and down again, while only one of Lilly, Harang, and Capuano will have a good season. The rest of Ned’s vets will be lousy and/or hurt, only partially made up for by some 300+ effective plate appearances from Jerry Sands.
There’s like a 0.0000000000000001% chance that Ned Colletti gets fired during the season unless they are doing absolutely horrid or some issue comes up.
Buzzkiller :(
Can easily see them finishing below .500 if things don’t go right.
They are so dependent on old players and two or three impact players that if certain things go wrong there, it’s over.
If you check the fanposts, I compiled TBLA’s predictions. The average poster expected 84 wins from the team. If the true number is 81, then that’s not a huge deal considering that 3 wins is nothing as far as how much luck can swing a team one way or the other, so we’re probably within the 95% confidence limits for the season.
In your poll, 62% voted 87+ wins.
The poll was predicated on the performances of the players as shown by the individual player votes. People knew that things are gonna go wrong, they just don’t know where, which is why when confronted with a set of stats that are solid and an injury-free roster, they’re more optimistic than they normally would be.
Why would we assume it would go injury free?
Regardless of reason, the point is that they THINK the season is going to go a lot better than basically everybody else sees.