Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
As you already know, Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers will not be suspended by Major League Baseball after his positive drug test was overturned by arbitrator Shyam Das.
As such, those who relentlessly moralized about Braun from the moment his positive test results were leaked surely took a step back and apologized for their hasty jump-to-conclusions approach, right?
Um … not quite.
They continue to do exactly the same thing even after the suspension was ruled null and void, primarily because every major media outlet reported that it was overturned due to a technicality and not science (1/2/3/4/5).
Almost immediately after the suspension was overturned, the stories started to pile in, sharply shifting in tone from being about Braun’s exoneration to Braun simply getting off on a stroke of luck. As such, the public continues to spew this rhetoric that Braun is definitely guilty of using drugs, it’s just that he wasn’t caught because of MLB’s incompetence.
The problem is that it’s not exactly true.
As many have already shown, the chain of custody is part of science, much like the process aspect of the scientific method is as important as the results, yet people don’t seem to care about that because … uh … science is hard and stuff (1/2/3/4/5).
Additionally, it actually is a matter of science for other reasons as well, as two relatively important findings have been omitted (willfully or not) from almost every news story and opinion piece on Braun. Will Carroll and Lester Munson both offer interesting findings on the decision via their own sources.
Sources have told Carroll that the defense showed that the circumstances which led to the positive drug test was able to be repeated using the errors of the handler, which he explained on WEEI.
In shorter bursts, he explained it on Twitter as well (1/2/3/4/5)
Quit calling Braun decision a technicality, media. It was decided on science.
Repeatable result showed exactly how Braun’s single test showed positive. Arbitrator agreed. Simple, isn’t it?
Know what makes a good soundbite? “44 hours” and “FedEx”. Know what doesn’t? Technical details about urine flora.
Joe Sheehan: So the delay in processing the urine was repeated, and shown to be the cause of the high levels of T?
Will Carroll: More or less. It deserves an answer longer than 140.
JGERRITWULTERKENS: confused; so the sheer act of leaving out a sample in the wrong environment by itself raises the testosterone ratio by >3x?
Will Carroll: To vastly oversimplify, yes.
JGERRITWULTERKENS: Fair enough except if that’s a widely known, medically accepted fact you’d think MLB/testers would have been cognizant, no?
Will Carroll: Tester made a mistake. Its not usually an issue.
Do yourself a favor and read the article that he posted up on Amazon. Not only is it great work, but it benefits The Jimmy Fund.
Carroll’s information is not only relevant, but it’s monumentally important to the argument people are having over whether Braun case was overturned because of the chain of custody or because of doubts involving the actual sample. Carroll’s sources explain quite explicitly that their failure to keep up with the chain of custody caused a failure in the integrity of the sample. Then, not only was the sample’s validity questionable, but they were able to replicate the results and show how it happened. Thus, not only was it a failure in the process, but in the results as well.
In essence, this would break the case of anybody left moralizing, which is a reason I find it curious that nobody wants to run it. For Carroll’s part, he says Fox Sports isn’t silencing him, he was just beaten to the punch, but I preferred his insight over the article by David Epstein and Joe Lemire that actually was run.
Why does nobody want to talk about this? It’s beyond me.
Furthermore, Munson reports that Braun offered his DNA to check whether the urine was actually his, but was refused, suggesting that there were further questions about the legitimacy of the sample.
A failure to follow the delivery procedure seems like a technicality. Does it mean that Braun was clean and had not used any prohibited substance?
The failure to follow the delivery procedure casts significant doubt on the integrity of the collection procedure. That alone might have been enough for Braun to prevail in the arbitration. But Braun’s side went one step further. He and his lawyers, sources say, offered a DNA sample that could have been compared to the urine sample to determine whether the urine came from Braun. It was a bold move by Braun attorneys David Cornwell and Christopher Lyons. But instead of agreeing to a DNA test that would have determined conclusively whether it was Braun’s urine that tested positive, MLB declined the offer. The refusal to agree to the DNA test likely pushed the arbitrator toward a ruling for Braun. It was also a major first step for Braun in the effort to clear his name. He and his attorneys can now argue that he was clean and that MLB deliberately denied him the opportunity to prove that scientifically.
Odd.
If we accept those two pieces of information as true (which I have no reason to doubt), it’s a bit of a no-brainer for the arbitrator, in my opinion. Not only could Braun have potentially won solely on the grounds that the entire methodology was compromised by the handler of the sample, but additionally, the test results were duplicated by the defense, giving ample reason to suspect that the positive test was useless. Adding the fact that the MLB didn’t allow Braun to prove his innocence by checking the DNA to confirm it was his urine, and everything Das decided becomes quite clear.
Even if you don’t fully believe Carroll or Munson, because for whatever reason you think you have sources that they don’t, it’s more than enough doubt for me to not write articles that basically say Braun’s definitely still guilty.
And no, I’m not talking about angry Twitter commenters or angry bloggers, but mainstream sportswriters (1/2/3/4/5).
Why? Who knows? Perhaps blindly believing Braun got off the hook on a technicality is more interesting than the details of how and why things actually happened.
Either way, it’s inexplicable to me that the process worked and Braun still ends up as the bad guy to 89% of the people out there (at least according to one poll). The public chooses to spew religiously charged hate, conspiracy theories, and goes around blindly calling him a liar when they don’t even bother to check out all the facts and what we actually know.
People know for sure that he used steroids, people know for sure that he got off on a technicality, and people know for sure that he lied to them at his press conference. Apparently just like they knew for sure he was going to be suspended for 50 games.
I guess it’s just frustrating to me to see the blatant denial of logic and reason that’s thrown right in their faces, all so that they can feel okay with the assumptions they ran with after the positive test results were announced. The fervent and insistent nature of it just shocks me.
Actually, I take that back. I guess it’s par for the course now.
If Braun’s legal team was able to show the arbitrator that the test result was repeatable when the exact sequence of the sloppy handling was duplicated, then it’s game over. Completely innocent.
Yeah, that was surprising to read.
I figured it was just about the second sample or something.
I hardly hear that addressed anymore.
Nobody is completely innocent. Can’t say that with any level of certainty.
Just gives me a whole lot more reason to believe him than doubt him.
OK, how about he’s like…you know….like totally not guilty.
If I’m being honest, the only reason I’m having trouble fully believing this is because it hasn’t been spread wider.
I know we talk about information suppression, but I can’t imagine a site wouldn’t want to take a difference stance altogether from their competition to stand out in the crowd, much like you just have.
Certainly enough for me to stop thinking Ryan Braun is guilty of using for sure though, as I followed Will Carroll’s work on Baseball Prospectus and I can’t see somebody like him just making stuff up.
Right.
I wouldn’t have run this if I didn’t have confidence in Will Carroll’s reputation.
As for why it’s not widespread, I couldn’t tell you. Better for me, I guess?
He seems quite confident in it on Twitter.
Avatar check.
There are two problems, Chad, with your arguments.
1. The science of the test was not compromised. The sample was sealed, barcoded, signed, and placed in a cooler. Chances are minuscule that the courier (who has no motives in any case) could have switched the samples or whatever. Moreover, under WADA procedures, the sample would have been perfectly acceptable.
What was compromised was a procedural rule that got into the MLB drug testing process, a rule that WADA considers unimportant for ensuring the test’s integrity.
2. Ryan Braun’s offers to take additional tests are not dispositive of his innocence. RB’s team would have known that MLB would never agree to any additional procedure. It would create a troubling precedent and throw the accuracy of MLB’s testing program in doubt. In short, RB’s team knew MLB would rather lose this one case than to allow DNA testing or whatever.
Only thing the arbitration panel decided was that a procedural rule was not followed. Its decision does not throw the scientific integrity of the tests in doubt. Braun was exonerated because MLB agreed to add an extra procedural requirement to the sample handling process that was not complied with by the courier, who was following the WADA rules to a T.
Tiensy,
Will Carrol is a renowned doping expert and based on the information he has so far, he states, very clearly, the science of the test is in question. There is also conflicting information as to the whereabouts of the sample after it left Miller Park. There are reports it was left in a tupperware container on a desk.
And not to nitpick but this decision was not the arbitration panel’s, it was Shyman Das’s. What’s being left out of a lot of these discussions is that he is not some wet behind the ears rookie. He’s a highly experienced arbitrator who has been working with the league for over a decade. This is not his first doping case. He’s not going to clear Braun because of a procedural rule not being followed if he believed the integrity of the sample was uncompromised.
Will Carroll is a journalist. He is no doubt well-informed and knowledgeable about the issue, but that doesn’t make him, in my eyes, the final authority on the issue.
The sample, tripled sealed and barcoded, was kept in a cool place. Whether it was in a tupperware or in a safe is irrelevant. If Braun’s lawyers indeed proved that urine is capable of creating synthetic testosterone if left in a tupperware, they should send the results to a journal to be peer-reviewed.
Whether Shyman Das is a rookie or an experienced arbitrator is just not relevant. Experienced or not, an arbitrator will uphold an appeal if a procedural rule was not followed.
First, it was an STD medication that caused Braun’s test results. Now it’s the incredible unique ability of Braun’s urine to create synthetic testosterone at high levels. These bits of information from “sources” look like smoke and mirrors P.R. campaign efforts more than anything.
The sample can have all the barcodes in the world but if there is not a documentation trail as to its whereabouts and the conditions it was stored in the 44 hours prior to being shipped to that lab in Montreal it is fair and reasonable to question its integrity. Refer to the case of Diane Modahl.
And you’re essentially saying the abritrator’s experience level has no bearing whatsoever in the ruling. That’s quite remarkable. Any arbitrator in the world would have been compelled to overturn the suspension based on this minor technicality. Braun’s lawyers brilliantly exposed the thermal exhaust port in the 17,000 page Death Star that is MLB’s drug policy. Bravo. It’s far more likely there was is more to this story than is being told right now.
As far as the STD rumor, you’re seriously suggesting that’s part of an orchestrated P.R. campaign? Wow. “Hey, let’s get a rumor going that I’m on medication to treat a gross, communicable disease. That’ll get public sentiment on my side.”
Right, so basically you don’t care about anything I’ve written, you just want to say he’s guilty. I get it.
Of course Will Carroll isn’t the final authority on anything, nobody is. Who do you find more credible then? The leak? Or WADA? Or USADA? They all clearly have a dog on this fight.
Whether it was kept in a cool place is up for debate, honestly. That’s part of the issue.
By the way, I haven’t seen anybody except the leak mentioning the synthetic testosterone and IRMS test. Just saying.
The STD medication was an online rumor that people had fun with, nothing more.
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The point is that you certainly don’t know enough to say you know anything for sure.
To act otherwise is just being delusional because you took a stand and want to stick with it.
The only point of saying he’s experienced is to show that it’s not like he hasn’t been there and done that.
As in, it’s not as if this is new territory for him, and I’m sure he’s heard it all.
1) The science of the test was compromised because of the process though. That’s exactly what the source states.
If you want to ignore that and believe somebody else, then that’s fine, but I fail to see how that’s a problem with what I wrote using all the available information.
2) Did I say it was indicative of his innocence? I said it was a factor in the ruling, because it looks bad.
It wasn’t an additional test, it was to test the urine sample to make sure it was Ryan Braun’s to begin with.
3) WADA says a lot of things. I’m sure they have no dog in this fight, right? Yeah.
You seem to throw out Will Carroll’s information as if it means nothing, which makes it seem as if you don’t even care about anything I wrote, you just want to confirm you opinion.
It’s just source against source at this point.
Dunno, can’t just disregard one unless you think the person relaying it isn’t reliable.
Thanks for running this Chad. As a Brewers fan it’s good to get a deeper insight into the whole case than the mainstream sports media seem willing to provide.
A couple of questions arising : I was little surprised that Ryan didn’t bring the issue of the reproduced results to public attention yesterday. Could this be a shrewd tactical move on his part? If this is to be a key part of Shyam Das’ ruling (which surely now has to be made public) might it sound more convincing coming from Das, rather than Braun himself?
Secondly, could this explain why MLB “vehemently disagreed” with Das’ decision? Did MLB refuse to consider the test conducted by Braun’s team to be admissible evidence, while Das, and presumably the MLBPA, took the opposite view?
I don’t know about you, but this interpretation is making a lot of sense to me.
One final thought : If I’m right (Hey! it has been known!) then the public perception that Braun “got off on technicality” may be turned on its head. It may then look as if MLB were trying to convict Braun on a technicality. With the technicality being (wait for it, irony lovers) that they refused to accept evidence of a test which produced (at least in part) the same result as their own programme!!
Going to try not to read minds in those cases. No idea why anybody is doing what they’re doing anymore.
People have already made up their minds it seems.
I wonder if the purported reproduced results would stand up to scientific scrutiny. In any case, this study says T/E ratio would not be affected by repeated coolings and thawings:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rcm.2387/abstract
Also, the Carroll interview doesn’t state that Braun’s lawyers were able to replicate the creation of synthetic testosterone, which is determined by CIR test.
Based on all the information we have, from both Braun’s side and the MLB, I think it’s safe to conclude that the only way Braun’s sample could have shown the results it did was through intentional tampering.
Perhaps the way I phrased my disagreement with the article was needlessly contentious in tone. I should mention that I fully agree with the results of the arbitration. MLB had a duty to follow the procedures it agreed to, and one procedure was not followed. Braun should not be suspended for 50 games and lose a third of his salary. That is fair.
I disagree, though, that the science of the test was compromised, regardless of what information was leaked to Will Carroll’s lawyers. Taking all the new pieces of information as true, I still think Braun’s only defense in the court of public opinion is the risk of intentional tampering, for all the reasons I mentioned above.
Not sure, but T/E tests are not definitive to begin with. The natural/synthetic test is the one that’s impossible to prove and I don’t think anybody has confirmed it actually happened.
https://twitter.com/#!/roadman10/status/173801621636136960
Can you find anybody talking about it besides reports running off the leak?
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I’m not sure how you can conclude that Ryan Braun is guilty based on science when you admit that chain of custody is in question and so is a lot of the science if you take Will Carroll’s source as true.
It’s not that I’m exonerating him, I’m just saying I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
Still not seeing how you can believe the science isn’t in question when there are so many questions that even you admit you don’t have answers for.
The existence of uncertainty in cases like this shouldn’t be put on the accused.
I have performed testing like this and it is completely normal to have to keep a sample in your house/fridge for 2 days over a weekend and to my knowledge does not break the chain of custody as long as it is in a private residence. I am not sure what other circumstances are in this case but if it was just the collector could not get it to FedEx in time for the last pick up of the day and simply kept it in his house, isn’t that more secure than a shelf at a FedEx branch? We need more information on why the chain of custody was broken, I think Braun, if he wants to exonerate himself further, should release his defense brief from the arbitration. That way we won’t be working off of leaks or hearsay but what the defense actually was. I also work in analytical chemistry and the isotope ratio test is a well accepted test.
Not accurate enough for my liking to rob a guy of millions and basically his entire public image.
Regardless, the T/E isn’t important if you believe Carroll, but a source confirming an IRMS test was run on both samples would be.
The problem was allegedly that it wasn’t left in the fridge or a freezer, just in the open.
I agree that it is not a technicality if protocols were not followed and the sample was not reliable, which apparently they were not because the independent arbitrator exonerated Braun. And it seems MLB has mishandled this from the beginning, even through their most recent unproductive statements.
But I have read and listened to just about everything and am still puzzled as to the protocol violation of the collector. It seems clear based on the timeline that the samples would not have shipped until Monday even if dropped at Fedex after collection. Either way, they would have sat in the collector’s house or a Fedex shelf. Or does Fedex provide cold storage even at their Kinkos drop off locations?
There are also varying reports that he stored them in a rubbermaid container on his desk, in an ice chest in his basement, or in his refrigerator. What is the truth?
From the beginning I thought the case smelled due to the breach in confidentiality and the astronomical testosterone reading. But I don’t think it is unfair from a fan’s perspective to ask additional questions and seek the truth, especially given Braun’s accusations against the collector.
Right. Nobody really knows, which is sort of my point.
I’m a Brewers fan and as you can imagine as big a fan of Braun as anyone else out there. But the only cloudy thing about his case is that the testosterone in his sample was synthetic, and that seems to be the thing a lot of people miss when discussing it.
i suspect he would reply that it was not his sample or that his sample was manipulated between collection and delivery. He impugned the integrity of the collector at his news conference.
Narveson, the union player rep, also complained of timing issues in past collections in Milwaukee. There must be more to this case than meets the eye. It has been strange from the beginning, starting with the confidentiality breach, not to mention MLB’s total incompetence.
Could be that too.
If what Will Carroll’s sources say is true, he has so many angles of defense.
https://twitter.com/#!/injuryexpert/status/173419226189672448
Yeah, I saw that as well.
No confirmation on whether that was actually true or not.
It’s nothing short of an absolute joke that people are somehow still considering Braun “guilty” in droves. The sample wasn’t collected properly and the contents of said sample are irrelevant. His urine could contain Horse Tranquilizers, Cocaine and Splenda and none of it would, or should, matter whatsoever because the sample is INVALID.
People had two months to basically convince themselves that he was guilty.
They just had it shattered and it’s taking a while to adjust I bet.
Some never will.
Nice story, the real key here is that so many people are still treating “rumors” from “sources” as facts in this case.
1 question I have is if Braun’s sample degraded due to improper storage, then what happened to the other 2 mystery Brewer test samples? I would assume all 3 were stored the same way, so why did only Braun’s degrade.
Also, to the above commenters who don’t believe the sample could show increased T:E ratios by not being stored properly, that is exactly what happened in the Diane Modahl case, which she proved to reverse a suspension. (http://www.open.edu/openlearn/whats-on/ou-on-the-bbc-background-brief-testing-the-best-the-story-so-far)
No idea.
Will Carroll’s story did mention they all could have different reactions.
Or perhaps they were tampered with. Dunno.
All I don’t get is why everybody is taking these sources at face value without ever getting an actual explanation from anybody willing to put their name on it.
The use of anonymous sources by ESPN and other reporters in this case has been troubling, because there seems to be information conflicts. Actually, Ryan Braun is the only person that has actually stood up to the public, provided an explanation, and directly answered reporter questions in a public forum.
Bottom line, this is why confidentiality is so important in drug testing. The breach is this case has made a total mess of it, and in my view, tainted it from the start.
Advances in testing interpretations avoid the initial conclusions obtained in the Modahl case. If Braun’s initial urine obtained lacked metabolites that is. I would like to test the submitted sample from Braun’s attorneys for the presence (or lack thereof) of metabolites.
We all want official answers.
All we have now is leaks, which is sort of the problem.
What I hear is the sample was sealed. Un-tampered samples are not affected by 44 hours storage. The normal measured ratio of 1:1 is flagged if over 4:1. Braun’s sample was 20:1. Braun’s camp tried to state that 20:1 was staggeringly out of range, but the UCLA and Olympic anti-doping expert, Don Catlin, states that he has seen 100:1 ratios. The sample had synthetic testosterone.
If you believe that Ryan Braun is innocent you probably believe O.J. was framed.
it was significantly out of the historical range for the MLB testing program, which is what Braun was referencing. And the sample was not taken to Fedex on that Monday until 1330, when they opened at 0730, so even on a business day, a pretty significant delay after the already long delay due to the weekend sample. Braun makes a good point that if ballplayers have the presumption of guilt, the testing procedures must be followed to the letter.
As of this moment, all of that is speculation.
Seriously.
How come no journalist has gone to FedEx to find out about their handling of biological samples? It seems to me you can’t just shove body fluids in an envelope and ship it out. But all the articles I read mention it sitting on a shelf. Braun said they have climate controlled holding, or something to that affect. I expected to read something about this right away, but guess I was a bit wrong about the level of journalism sports has. I also thought FedEx might jump out and defend their practices, saying they don’t leave medical specimens sitting on a shelf.
Would be interesting to hear.
The DNA claim is pretty weak, yet used to almost “prove” your argument. Brauns lawyers claimed they offered to give a DNA test, but MLB says Braun later backed off the offer.
From ESPN:
Sources also told Munson that there was doubt over whose urine was actually being tested. Braun offered to take a DNA test to confirm whose urine was in the sample, but Major League Baseball declined. However, an MLB source told ESPN’s Mike Golic that Braun’s side backed off of the offer to take a DNA test.
I’ll go with Munson over Golic.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/28/wisconsin-man-who-collected-ryan-brauns-urine-sample-issues-statement-to-set-the-record-straight/
Here you go. Finally someone who’s willing to talk some facts.
Three things in summary:
1. Sample was collected, sealed, and signed in Braun’s presence. Braun signed a form certifying that the samples were sealed properly and in his presence.
2. Collector took it home and left it on a desk in his basement office. This is in Milwaukee, in February.
3. Braun is a scum for impugning someone’s professional integrity. If Braun has something to say in his defense, let him come out and issue some real, solid statements. No more of this smoke and mirrors campaign cooked up by lawyers.
I’m not sure why you think this proves anything.
It’s been quite clear from the beginning you think he’s guilty and you’ll use any piece of information that’s revealed to come to that conclusion, so why would I bother?
I honestly don’t care, I’m just reserving judgement.
What the guy said proves nothing.
Seriously though, if I was the collector and I fucking microwaved the sample, I wouldn’t say it.
Chad: Your whole article is based on the speculations of others. LOL. From what I have read on this subject, is it is far more likely that Braun’s testosterone levels were indeed elevated than someone tampering with the samples. I strongly urge readers of this article to do further research and decide for yourselves on the matter.
Yes, it is.
That’s sort of the point.
It’s all speculation, so why jump to a conclusion?
Yet people already are.
If you think the point of the article was to say I believe Ryan Braun is innocent, you are sorely mistaken and apparently have trouble reading.
You write an opinion piece and then chastise readers for formulating an opinion? I tell people to do more research and you tell me I have trouble reading?
Stay classy bud.
You say my article is based on speculation and then you laugh at me, yet you lecture me about class.
I call you out on your fault conclusions about my motivations for writing this article and you start whining about getting your own opinion.
It’s a bit funny, yes.
You either have trouble reading or you have trouble understanding what you’re reading.
“Even if you don’t fully believe Carroll or Munson, because for whatever reason you think you have sources that they don’t, it’s more than enough doubt for me to not write articles that basically say Braun’s definitely still guilty.”
That’s the point.
I don’t know why the decision was made and neither do you.
One of us pretends to have the answers (you) and one of us will continue to wait before burying a guy who has already gotten screwed by the system and had his suspension overturned (me).
That’s all.
If it comes out later that Shyam Das said in his statement that Ryan Braun used steroids and he got off just because a guy was a few hours late to mail a parcel, then that’s fine. He’s a steroid user, no skin off my back.
Seriously? Are you a “real” journalist? This is what real time news brings us? You have YOUR opinion and everyone else is entitled to theirs. You preaching to us about burying the guy and basing your OPINION piece on speculation makes you guilty of the same thing.
And yes…stay classy bud. I don’t mind the ridiculous replies but you answering these posts on here is tantamount to players going into the stands.
Grow some thicker skin or find another hobby. Hilarious. I eagerly await your next nanny-nanny boo-boo reply.
How does it make me guilty of the same thing? I’m saying that I’m going to wait until I can get all the facts.
You’re leaping to a conclusion based on your speculation, I’m withholding judgment.
You would have a point if I was saying Ryan Braun is innocent, but I’m not.
It’s quite different.
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I’m not a journalist, no.
I comment on every post I make because I’m a blogger who started the blog so people read my opinions and I can interact with them.
If you disagree (or in your case, laugh at my opinion) and I feel you give a poor reason for doing so, I will give you my opinion back. Where did I prevent you from giving an opinion? You are free to do so and continue to do so, but I’m free to tell you if I think you’re wrong. So here we are.
I’m not personally insulted, so there’s no reason to grow a thicker skin, you’re just wrong about me. That’s it.
Thanks for coming back.
This article went live a week ago and I still haven’t heard anybody else talk about this other than you and Will Carroll. I am not saying that either of you are wrong, but you would think if this story had any merit, other media sources would talk about it.
Obviously, we won’t know anymore until the Arbitrator releases his report on the appeal.
Possible.
Also possible nobody has interest in the second test and writing about the specifics of pee.
Anything is possible.
Ryan Braun is hiding something.
I find it interesting that John Axford retweeted you. Your tweet stated “Ryan Braun: What You Don’t Know About His Case Is Important”. Axford, being a teammate, would have more information than any of us.
Here is my theory. What if Ryan Braun is gay? Need proof? Just look at his hair for one.
So, let’s say he gave a gay, steroid using, bodybuilder a blowjob and swallowed before the test. Would this make his piss positive?
wat