Chad Moriyama Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting
The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed right-handed starting pitcher Aaron Harang to a 2 year deal worth $12 million, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. The deal is assumed to be back loaded, but there’s no confirmation on that yet.
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Once upon a time, Harang was a consistent workhorse type of pitcher for the Reds, posting three consecutive seasons with an ERA- below 90 from 2005 to 2007 (3.83/3.76/3.73). From 2008 to 2010 though, things weren’t as pretty, and his Reds career ended with him posting an ERA- of 130 (5.32).
Like a lot of pitchers try to do, he headed to the Padres to ramp up his value, and Petco Park certainly seemed to do the trick, as he posted a career best 3.63 ERA. However, his ERA- was just 105 and his peripheral skills weren’t all that different from 2010 (16.3/17.3 K% & 7.5/8.1 BB%).
As such, the 2012 Dodgers are basically getting a 2010 Aaron Harang salvage title car with minor body work done in 2011 to make it look like a 2005-2007 generation but an engine that’s still as questionable as the 2008-2010 version.
Yearly Salary Estimated
Assuming he’s even able to stay healthy, which hasn’t exactly been a given since 2007, his skills indicate that he’s about a 4.20 ERA type of pitcher in Dodger Stadium, which is basically like a right-handed version of Ted Lilly.
I gave him 175 innings pitched, which came out to around 12 runs above replacement. Given that he’s going into his age 34 season in 2012, I regressed him a bit as well.
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I’m not going over this again and again, but I’m just gonna say that with all this money they’ve spent over the off-season, the Dodgers probably could have signed Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Capuano, and Mark Ellis if they just resisted the temptation to give away money to Harang, Juan Rivera, Matt Treanor, Adam Kennedy, and Jerry Hairston Jr..
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Update
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The Dodgers officially announced the Harang signing on Thursday, and with it came the contract specifics.
Harang will receive $3 million in 2012 and $7 million in 2013. In ’14, there is an option with a $2 million buyout. The option for 2014 will vest between $7 million and $8 million if he eats up at least 360 innings over the two years and at least 175 innings in ’13.
Since the terms are now known, I figured I should update my chart.
For the most part, it’s still the same deal, but it’s deferred even more than I predicted.
While many aren’t happy about the vesting option, I would argue that it’s actually not worse than the buyout. In order for Harang to vest, he has to be healthy, therefore I staved off a WAR decline in 2014, making the option year almost Surplus Value neutral.
Actually, if they hadn’t signed Rivera, Ellis, Kennedy, Hairston, Capuano, and Harang, they conceivably could have signed both Kuroda (one yr w/deferred salary) and Reyes (first yr lower salary).
Doubt Reyes would be so graceful as to help the Dodgers for our sake. :o
As you said, most fans don’t seem pissed about the individual signings as much as the collective…
That’s what I’m getting on my Twitter feed as well.
Wouldn’t any GM worth a damn have looked at the team at the beginning of the offseason, realized he didn’t have enough money to win this year and then gone all in on locking up one (maybe 2 if you’re lucky) high end free agents to keep through 2013 and beyond to make the future team better? Fuck 2012, the season was toast the second McCourt took the team into bankruptcy, pushing things beyond any reasonable timeframe for new ownership to take effect. Seems ridiculous to not take care of even one need long term during the offseason on a team that went in with gaping holes at so many positions. You gotta start filling those holes somewhere with real talent.
Oh wait, this is Ned we’re talking about. I retract my previous comment about wanting him to lock up long term high end talent. Cuz we know how well that’s worked out in the past. I guess this is the lesser of two evils. Ugh.
Actually, I’m somewhat sure this is partially a play to keep his job, no?
I posted this last night over at TBLA, but hardly received any comments.
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Thinking inside the box, this could have been the 2012 opening day roster for the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Starting Rotation: Kershaw, Kuroda, Billingsley, Lilly, Eveland
Bullpen: Jansen, Guerra, Lindblom, Elbert, Tolleson, Guerrier (ugh), St. Clair
Catchers: Ellis, Treanor
Infield: Loney, Hairston, Gordon, Uribe (ugh), Sellers, DeWitt (Hawksworth traded to Cubs)
Outfield: Kemp, Ethier, Sands, Rivera, Gwynn
This roster would have kept the payroll low, with no major risks taken. Bringing Kuroda back for one more season is not a long-term risk. How much better would Capuano be than Dana Eveland and his minimum salary for the first half of the 2012 season, until Eovaldi or Webster might be ready? Eight or nine times better? Wouldn’t Kuroda + Eveland be better and more flexible in the future than Capuano + Harang? What about the four-man rotation at 2B and 3B of Uribe, Hairston, Sellers, and DeWitt? Wouldn’t it perform similarly to Uribe, Hairston, Ellis, and Kennedy, but at a much lower cost? With the amount of money invested in Rivera, is he going to be the primary starter in LF instead of Sands? This is a guy who doesn’t hit righties all that well, and doesn’t cover much ground in the outfield. It was stunning to me that Ned set the market this off-season by throwing $4.5 million at Rivera at the very beginning of the free agent signing period. Here is what the opening day lineup could have been:
Gordon (SS) Hairston (2B) Kemp (CF) Ethier (RF) Sands (LF) Loney (1B) Ellis (C) Uribe (3B) Kershaw (P)
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Anyway, I also posted an outside the box roster, but I’d like to see what you guys think first regarding this one.
Forgot to mention that DeWitt would get a lot of starts at 3B and possibly some at 2B. Maybe even a platoon with Uribe if the latter starts out like crap again.
I wouldn’t put it over him to be better than Uribe as a starter.
I would say fuck Rivera, Treanor, and Hairston. I’d rather have Ellis at 2B.
Eovaldi better than Eveland as well, I think.
I’d rather have Eveland first half of the season at a cheap cost and let Eovaldi work on his secondary stuff under Chuck Crim in AA until it improves. As for Rivera, I would not have set the market by overpaying him on practically the first day of free agency. DeWitt OPS’d above .750 last season on days he started, so a platoon with him and Uribe probably would have been more effective than our 3B position last season. Treanor is a placeholder until Fedex gets more experience in AAA, and Hairston is a useful utility guy who can also pinch hit. Anyway, you’d probably like my outside the box scenario better, so I’ll post it later.
Eveland and Eovaldi don’t matter a lot as far as salary goes, but the rest do.
Well, if Ned had paid a more reasonable $2.5m/yr for Rivera instead of setting the market price for mediocre and old free agents on practically the first day of the signing period, I’d be happier. As it is, my outside the box roster had us keeping Jamie Hoffman and still signing Hairston, trading Hawksworth for DeWitt, re-signing Kuroda, keeping Eveland, and signing Reyes (with Gordon moving to 2B for a few years). Judging from the back-loaded contract Reyes signed with the Marlins, we could have had both him and Kuroda if Ned hadn’t started signing old and crappy veterans on his way out of town as fast as Holden shot that Gatling gun at the end of The Wild Bunch.
I just don’t believe they would allow it to be backloaded to that extent.
Reyes’ salary is $10m for each of his first two years with the Marlins. The Dodgers could have offered that. Sign Kuroda to a one-year deal with $8m or $9m up front and $4m or $5m deferred, don’t sign Rivera, Kennedy, Mark Ellis, Capuano, or Harang, trade Hawksworth for DeWitt and platoon him at 3B with Uribe, sign Hairston to a backloaded deal to share 2B with Sellers, and have Eveland be the #5 starter until Eovaldi or Webster is ready. Don’t re-sign MacDougal or Kuo so you can bring up Tolleson and St. Clair.
This payroll is nearly identical to Ned’s current 2012 payroll and lower than the 2013 payroll. Ned had to go out and satisfy his fetish for throwing money at crappy veterans instead of building a less expensive and more expensive winner.
No, I mean, a deal like that for a free agent would have to be signed off on.
Not sure they agree to do that. Extending a Dodgers player under contract is one thing.
Oh, so by “they” you mean McCourt and Dodger management?
After my initial rants, this was my thought as well. It seems as if he’s going out swinging on a low budget, flailing to try and make something work. I just pray new ownership does not keep him around long enough to do anything but clear out his desk.
This was meant to go under Kensai’s reply…I’m not a morning person.
I’m a mourning person.
Here’s hoping.